Maxflier

PP Horse ML Trainer Jockey

1 Sedgefield 50-1 Darrin Miller Julien Leparoux
2 Curlin 7-2 Steve Asmussen Robby Albarado
3 Zanjero 30-1 Steve Asmussen Shaun Bridgmohan
4 Storm in May 30-1 Bill Kaplan Juan Leyva
5 Imawildandcrazyguy 50-1 Bill Kaplan Mark Guidry
6 Cowtown Cat 20-1 Todd Pletcher Fernando Jara
7 Street Sense 4-1 Carl Nafzger Calvin Borel
8 Hard Spun 15-1 Larry Jones Mario Pino
9 Liquidity 30-1 Doug O'Neill David Flores
10 Teuflesberg 30-1 Jamie Sanders Stewart Elliott
11 Bwana Bull 50-1 Jerry Hollendorfer Javier Castellano
12 Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-1 Barclay Tagg Cornelio Velasquez
13 Sam P. 20-1 Todd Pletcher Ramon Dominguez
14 Scat Daddy 10-1 Todd Pletcher Edgar Prado
15 Tiago 15-1 John Shirreffs Mike Smith
16 Circular Quay 8-1 Todd Pletcher John Velazquez
17 Stormello 30-1 Bill Currin Kent Desormeaux
18 Any Given Saturday 12-1 Todd Pletcher Garrett Gomez
19 Dominican 20-1 Darrin Miller Rafael Bejarano
20 Great Hunter 15-1 Doug O'Neill Corey Nakatani

Red Dog

Yummy.

I've been following Hard Spun this year. I have a friend who is friends with J. Larry Jones, the trainer - it is his first trip to Derby (along with longtime Maryland jockey Mario Pino). It's been a profitable following.

Red Dog

When was the last time that there wasn't a Lukas or Baffert horse in the Derby?

Maxflier

Forget Christmas, forget Thanksgiving, my favorite day of the year is the first saturday in May.
My Derby pick: Hard Spun
I think he has the perfect style for the Derby and has been my Derby horse since I first laid eyes on him earlier this year at Fair Grounds.

Maxflier

Besides Hard Spun, I think Scat Daddy has a great shot at winning also and I wouldn't mind seeing Any Given Saturday pull it off (how can you not like a horse with that name?).
I don't think Nobiz has what it takes to win, but I have a feeling he will finish 2nd or 3rd.
As for the favorites: I think Street Sense is a bit overrated, and I think Curlin's inexperience will catch up with him.

classicman2

There's a saying in horse racing. The best horse may not not win the race, but that's where you put your money - even in a 20-horse field. IMO, the best horse is Curlin. He's lightly raced - only had 3 career starts - won all by large margins. I saw him win the Rebel & the Arkansas Derby in person at Oaklawn. He's really a good looking horse. An indication of how good judges of horse flesh believe he is - he was sold at a private sale for 4 million dollars after winning only one race. He's also ridden by a very-underrated jockey, who is one of the hottest jockeys in the country. If he was an east coast horse, he would be at 2-1 in the odds or maybe even a little better. Coastal bias exists in horse racing.

Street Sense's problem, IMO, is that he has labored in getting the 1 1/8 miles. The Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles. I think the same thing about Any Given Saturday.

No Biz Like Shobiz ran a so-so time at Aqueduct in the Wood Memorial. Aqueduct is a very fast race track.

Scat Daddy who pretty impressive in the Florida Derby. Remember - the Florida Derby produced the winner last year, Barbaro. No, I'm not comparing Scat Daddy with Barbaro.

Pletcher's horses don't seem to do too well in the Derby. They didn't do too well in last year's Breeder's Cup either. He had 17 horses there, and none won. Poor Todd Pletcher.

I also like a couple of long shots a little - Asumussen's other horse - Zanjero & Dominican. To be perfectly truthful, the reason I like Dominican is because I think Rafael Bejarano is one of the very best jockeys in the country. He doesn't always get really good mounts.

A little off topic - but what I really want to see is the Eclipse Award Winner for Best 3-Year Old to run as a 4-year old. If he isn't a gelding, it's not likely to happen.

Bell65

My Pick, not that anyone cares:

Scat Daddy...I just cant make it until tomorrow afternoon, so dont wreck my odds people! he won florida...and has beaten nobiz in head to head action...

also...my long shot, who is 30/1 or 40/1 in some areas is Stormello...lost by a body to Scat in florida and has some terrific speed...which doesnt mean a lto in a crowded derby field, but for a longshot, id say stormello has the tools to at least Show...and give someone a solid high yielding show bet!

Red Dog

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...erby_basic.pdf

Dalvin

I'm sorry but I still wil never forget Barbaro. That horse would have won the triple crown. Its so sad what happened to him. Hopefully he went out peacefuly.

It doesn't look like their are any "Smarty Jones" or "Barbaros" in the field

Red Dog

Track doesn't look bad, but it doesn't look great either.

Red Dog

Damn - Hard Spun is getting a lot of love. Down to 8-1.

astrochimp

Gonna go with the longshot Imawildandcrazyguy at 50-1

Arpeggi

Stormello for the win!

Red Dog

I guess the Derby is a big deal when the Queen attends. I wonder what she wagers? Probably a single $2 ticket.

Red Dog

Here are my likely loser bets:

4 way tri-box: Cowtown Cat, Street Sense, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday

Hard Spun to Win, Place, and Show

I don't think Hard Spun can get this distance but if he ran well and I wasn't on him, I'd be really pissed.

Red Dog

Thank goodness for Hard Spun.

Maxflier

I guess Street Sense is for real, very strong performance.
Can't fault my boy Hard Spun either, I was worried he was going too fast at first but a very nice showing.

astrochimp

I thought Imawildandcrazyguy was gonna get lapped but it made a nice comeback to finish 4th

Red Dog

Yeah - rare to see a favorite win the Derby. It will be interesting to see the isolated replay since it sounded like he made up a ton of ground.

We should see Hard Spun back for the Preakness. His trainer and jockey know Pimlico very well.

Red Dog

I won a whopping $6 after all that.

Red Dog

That was quite a hole that opened up for Street Sense. Like they say - you need some luck to win the Derby.

Maxflier

Same shit different day, that dude (Calvin Borail) gets lucky every damn time with the freakin' rail opening up at the perfect time.

Red Dog

My friend had 343 different bet combinations. Let's just say that Street Sense wasn't on top of any of them. All losers.


edit: that doesn't include his 9 Daily Double 10th/11th bets where he wheeled Hard Spun.

Maxflier

lol, he must be pissed.

Spicollidriver1

I had 10 $2 bets and only hit one. Had street sense finishing second on a few of exactas and trifects., but all well got 6.40 for one of them, and the a 10 bonus so not out much.