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View Poll Results: If you were the Bucks, what player would you choose?
Andrew Bogut
10
33.33%
Marvin Williams
19
63.33%
Someone else
1
3.33%
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Who Do You Pick? Williams or Bogut?

Old 06-25-05, 11:55 AM
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Who Do You Pick? Williams or Bogut?

So if you're the Milwaukee Bucks, who do you pick #1 on Tuesday -- Andrew Bogut or Marvin Williams?

Bogut is the consensus Player of the Year, an Olympic medalist, a legitimate 7-footer with superior post skills. He fits a desperate need along the Bucks front line, and he'll instantly be considered one of the top centers in the East. (Which admittedly is a pretty mediocre list.) On the down side, he has somewhat limited athleticism, and there's the enduring myth of the Great White Stiff that Bogut has to live down.

Williams has tremendous "upside" -- he has size, he has range, he has great basketball intelligence and instincts. He can play the post and the wing, and he could become a superstar in the NBA. But he was a bench player in college, he's just one year removed from high school, and he's essentially an unproven commodity.

The predraft hype says Wiliams will become the better pro, but Bogut is the safer pick. If I'm the Bucks, I would take Bogut -- not only is he the safer pick, but he stands a much better chance of stepping in right away. And getting a competent big man is always a challenge... you can always find a guy to play facing the basket.
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Old 06-25-05, 12:02 PM
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Bogut. He's already a proven talent, and has an incredibly well rounded game for a 7 footer.
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Old 06-25-05, 12:12 PM
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Williams. Calling him a bench player is a misnomer, he was on the floor at crunch time by the end of the season, and was a go to player, a remarkable feat for a guy on a team with Felton, May, and McCants. He's got character, skills, and drive. He seems like the lesser risk IMO.
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Old 06-25-05, 12:36 PM
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Williams is the more valuable player. He has greater upside and is more marketable because of his style of play. NBA franchises usually opt for the more valuable player. Course, Milwaukee is a little bland already, so maybe they will take Bogut.
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Old 06-25-05, 12:51 PM
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I would take Williams. Bogut does look like he will be good, but that great white stiff thing is scary. The way the league is going I think you take athleticism and spend the next couple of years developing Williams.
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Old 06-25-05, 01:37 PM
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Originally Posted by LurkerDan
Williams. Calling him a bench player is a misnomer, he was on the floor at crunch time by the end of the season, and was a go to player, a remarkable feat for a guy on a team with Felton, May, and McCants. He's got character, skills, and drive. He seems like the lesser risk IMO.
I agree with your assessment on Williams... but I disagree on the "lesser risk" angle. If anything, Williams is the greater unknown, and therefore has a great degree of "boom or bust". He could be an All-Star in three years, or he could disappear under the bright lights.

Bogut is almost a shoo-in to be an All-Star within his first three years, if only because he is a true center in the Eastern Conference. (Remember: Zydrunas Ilgauskas is the second-best center in the East.)
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Old 06-25-05, 01:41 PM
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Originally Posted by darkside
I would take Williams. Bogut does look like he will be good, but that great white stiff thing is scary. The way the league is going I think you take athleticism and spend the next couple of years developing Williams.
The whole great white stiff thing... let's be realistic here. Andrew Bogut is a heck of a lot more athletic than Joel Przybilla. He's not the next Shaquille O'Neal, but he's certainly better than, say, Chris Taft.

Face it: if Andrew Bogut were black, he'd be the consensus number one, no questions asked.
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Old 06-25-05, 02:36 PM
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Originally Posted by NCMojo
Face it: if Andrew Bogut were black, he'd be the consensus number one, no questions asked.
I agree 100%, but you still have to look at Williams amazing upside. If he fufills his potential he will be a lot better than Bogut.
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Old 06-25-05, 03:42 PM
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If Bogut were black, he'd be a slow, unathletic black center. He's a slow, unathletic white center now. Either way, he's going to be a source of jokes for Bill Simmons for the next 5 years if the Bucks pick him first. One of the ESPN guys (Ford?) said Bogut was like 66th out of 70 players in one of the pre-draft camps.

Of course, if I'm the Bucks, I take Chris Paul first.
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Old 06-25-05, 03:45 PM
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Originally Posted by NCMojo
The whole great white stiff thing... let's be realistic here. Andrew Bogut is a heck of a lot more athletic than Joel Przybilla. He's not the next Shaquille O'Neal, but he's certainly better than, say, Chris Taft.
That's kinda like saying "Kwame Brown was a slightly less idiotic pick at the top of the 2001 draft than Darko was at the top of the 2003 draft", isn't it? He may be more athletic than Przybilla and better than Taft, but that doesn't mean he should be the #1 pick.
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Old 06-25-05, 03:58 PM
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He's much more athletic than other big white players. He's not a great athelete, but he moves very well for a 7 footer and can shoot. That's why he should be the #1 pick.
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Old 06-25-05, 04:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Josh Hinkle
He's much more athletic than other big white players. He's not a great athelete, but he moves very well for a 7 footer and can shoot. That's why he should be the #1 pick.
I'm sorry, but him being more athletic than big white players does not warrant him being the #1 pick. The fact that he is also unathletic according to you does not warrant him being the #1 pick. I personally think he could be good, but I think the more logical outcome will be him just having a good NCAA tourney, and then flopping once he gets in there with the big boys.
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Old 06-25-05, 04:43 PM
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Originally Posted by NCMojo
I agree with your assessment on Williams... but I disagree on the "lesser risk" angle. If anything, Williams is the greater unknown, and therefore has a great degree of "boom or bust". He could be an All-Star in three years, or he could disappear under the bright lights.

Bogut is almost a shoo-in to be an All-Star within his first three years, if only because he is a true center in the Eastern Conference. (Remember: Zydrunas Ilgauskas is the second-best center in the East.)
Obviously, this is speculation, but I doubt he's going to disappear under the bright lights. It's not like he's coming straight from high school. He went from HS to just about the biggest program there is, and performed under some pretty damn bright lights. He's shown he can step it up, I don't see why he suddenly would disappear in the NBA (not to mention, someone could arguably say that Tar Heels BB is bigger lights than Bucks BB ).

And who cares if Bogut could be an All Star just because there's no talent in the East. How is that relevant to who is the better pick. Does it make Bogut better because the Eastern Conference centers suck.
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Old 06-25-05, 06:36 PM
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Williams - he won the national championship for crying out loud!


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Old 06-25-05, 06:41 PM
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Originally Posted by mautos
I'm sorry, but him being more athletic than big white players does not warrant him being the #1 pick. The fact that he is also unathletic according to you does not warrant him being the #1 pick. I personally think he could be good, but I think the more logical outcome will be him just having a good NCAA tourney, and then flopping once he gets in there with the big boys.
He's pretty athletic period for someone his size, not just more athletic than big white guys. He's no Shaq, Hakeem or Ewing, but he's no Sabonis or Ilgauskis either.

His shooting and passing combined with his size is why I would want him on my team. Think NBA centers like Shaq will want to (or be able to) come out and guard him on the perimiter?

And he's too big to put a small forward or even most power forwards on.
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Old 06-25-05, 06:59 PM
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Originally Posted by LurkerDan
Obviously, this is speculation, but I doubt he's going to disappear under the bright lights. It's not like he's coming straight from high school. He went from HS to just about the biggest program there is, and performed under some pretty damn bright lights. He's shown he can step it up, I don't see why he suddenly would disappear in the NBA (not to mention, someone could arguably say that Tar Heels BB is bigger lights than Bucks BB ).

And who cares if Bogut could be an All Star just because there's no talent in the East. How is that relevant to who is the better pick. Does it make Bogut better because the Eastern Conference centers suck.
I was just arguing against your defintion of Williams as a "lesser risk".

I love Marvin Williams, and I think he's going to be fantastic. And you know I am a huge Carolina fan. But he is an unknown quanity. Bogut is the safer pick.

By the way -- if I'm the Hawks at #2 and I can't find a trade prospect I like -- I pass on Williams and take Chris Paul. But that's another story entirely.
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Old 06-25-05, 07:08 PM
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Originally Posted by B.A.
Williams - he won the national championship for crying out loud!


all by himself?
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Old 06-25-05, 07:44 PM
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Well, he had a little help.
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Old 06-25-05, 09:36 PM
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Marvin Williams. He's probably still growing, and has great range. He wasn't afraid to take big shots, like that three he drained late in the Villanova game. Very fundamentally sound, good free throw shooter, great hands.

What is so safe about Bogut? If he ends up being a bust in three years, I would doubt that Milwaukee's front office guys are going view their job security as being very safe. I would think the safer pick would be the guy who is more athletic and versatile.
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Old 06-25-05, 09:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Tommy_Harn
I would think the safer pick would be the guy who is
more athletic and versatile.
Williams is more athletic, but he is NOT more versatile.

Bogut is a 7 footer with great feet, good hands, and good post up game, an excellent passer and a very good shooter, even from beyond the arc.

Williams hasn't shown that he can do all that yet.
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Old 06-25-05, 10:02 PM
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You are way overestimating Bogut.

He does not have the inside game that NBA players need. He's going to be eaten alive. Just because he's a little better than a horrible bunch of NBA centers doesn't mean he deserves to be the #1 overall pick.

Especially considering there are 3 bona fide point guards in this draft, which brings up two points:

1) On one of the ESPN Radio shows the other week, it was mentioned that over the last 15 years, the first point guard picked in the draft has gone on to at least a good career. More than half of the first centers picked were complete busts.

2) It's probably more important to have a great point guard than a great center if you want to win in today's NBA.
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Old 06-25-05, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Tommy_Harn
Marvin Williams. He's probably still growing, and has great range. He wasn't afraid to take big shots, like that three he drained late in the Villanova game. Very fundamentally sound, good free throw shooter, great hands.

What is so safe about Bogut? If he ends up being a bust in three years, I would doubt that Milwaukee's front office guys are going view their job security as being very safe. I would think the safer pick would be the guy who is more athletic and versatile.
Even if Bogut is a complete bust, he'l still be a serviceable big man. There aren't that many true 7-footers who play big in the post -- he'll be good for 15 and 10 for years.

Of more concern is whether Williams will become a superstar. If he does, no matter how good Bogut becomes, then the Bucks will face criticism.
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Old 06-25-05, 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted by WildcatLH
You are way overestimating Bogut.
We'll see, he impressed me when I watched Utah some last year, and his numbers are great.

20.4 PPG 12.2 REB 1.9 BLK 62% FG 69% FT 36% 3PT

May not translate to the NBA, but I'd feel safer with him than Williams if I were the bucks.


Originally Posted by WildcatLH
2) It's probably more important to have a great point guard than a great center if you want to win in today's NBA.
The Bucks have TJ Ford who will be great if he can get and stay healthy. I'd take a chance on a big man if I were them.
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Old 06-25-05, 10:46 PM
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Originally Posted by WildcatLH
You are way overestimating Bogut.

He does not have the inside game that NBA players need. He's going to be eaten alive. Just because he's a little better than a horrible bunch of NBA centers doesn't mean he deserves to be the #1 overall pick.

Especially considering there are 3 bona fide point guards in this draft, which brings up two points:

1) On one of the ESPN Radio shows the other week, it was mentioned that over the last 15 years, the first point guard picked in the draft has gone on to at least a good career. More than half of the first centers picked were complete busts.

2) It's probably more important to have a great point guard than a great center if you want to win in today's NBA.
First, Bogut had 11 points and 8 rebounds in the Olympics against Tim Duncan in the '04 Olympics... so I think he'll be OK against the big guys in the Eastern Conference. (He averaged 15 and 9 for the Games.) He was the consensus player of the year in college basketball. He's going to be one of the top three picks in the draft. If we're overestimating Bogut, then at least we're in good company.

Second, as to point guards... I agree with the thrust of your argument. True point guards are even rarer than mobile big men, and this draft has a slew of them. But the Bucks have a pretty good point guard already in T.J. Ford... while Paul or Felton or Williams would be a nice upgrade, it isn't as much a position of need.

And as good as Paul is... would you really take him with the #1 pick?
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Old 06-26-05, 03:23 AM
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Marvin Williams. Bogut would be around pick #5 or 6 in my draft.
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