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The 131st Kentucky Derby, 5/7/05

Old 05-05-05, 10:20 AM
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The 131st Kentucky Derby, 5/7/05

When: Saturday, May 7
Post Time: 6:04 p.m.
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
Distance: 1 1/4 miles


Post Positions and Odds:

Sort it out (1) 50/1
Andromeda's Hero (2) 50/1
Sun King (3) 13/1
Nobel Causeway (4) 12/1
Coin Silver (5) 20/1
High Limit (6) 12/1
Flower Alley (7) 20/1
Greater Good (8) 20/1
Greeley's Galaxy (9) 15/1
Giacomo (10) 50/1
High Fly (11) 8/1
Afleet Alex (12) 9/2
Spanish Chestnut (13) 50/1
Wilko (14) 20/1
Bandini (15) 6/1
Bellamy Road (16) 5/2
Don't Get Mad (17) 30/1
Closing Argument (18) 30/1
Going Wild (19) 50/1
Buzzard's Bay (20) 20/1
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Old 05-05-05, 10:24 AM
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I'm leaning toward Afleet Alex. He performed very well in Arkansas recently. Solid Beyer Speed Figures over his recent races. He is more seasoned than some of the other top contenders.
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Old 05-05-05, 12:19 PM
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IMO, Afleet Alex was the best 2-year (no, he didn't win the Eclipse Award), and I believe he's the best horse in the field.

I saw him win (dominate) a pretty good field at the Arkansas Derby. He's had one bad race in 2 years - the Rebel - I saw that too, btw.

Todd Pletcher has 3 real threats in the race - Bandini, Flower Alley, & Coin Silver. Bandini convincingly won the Blue Grass with what most think was the best field. Flower Alley finished second in the Arkansas Derby, & Coin Silver won at Lexington. I really liked the way he performed on that off track.

I'm not sold on Bellamy Road - nearly everyone else is, however. He did have a great time in the Wood Memorial, but Aqueduct is one of the fastest tracks in the country, and it was a little wet that day which made it that much faster. One race doth not a great race make. BTW: It was, at best, a mediocre field in the Wood - I don't any of his rivals had even been around 2 turns.

Having said all of that - who knows?

The best horse will generally win in a 10-12 horse field. However, with a 20-horse field, and a mad dash to get to the first turn, the best horse may very well not win.
One thing for sure - don't bet on a dead come-from-behind at the Kentucky Derby.
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Old 05-05-05, 12:47 PM
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Originally Posted by classicman2
However, with a 20-horse field, and a mad dash to get to the first turn, the best horse may very well not win.

The other thing that sucks with a 20-horse field is that it makes doing an exacta wheel (my favorite bet) a pricey proposition.

I'm not sold on Bellamy Road either. That 120 Beyer Speed Figure in the Wood was amazing, but I don't think he has raced enough to win a Derby. Same issue with High Limit, Flower Alley, and a few others.

What do you think of Sun King? If he goes off at 15-1 (what I see now), I like those odds. My main concern is how he performed at 1 1/8 compared to 1 1/16 - lack of that late kick.
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Old 05-05-05, 12:52 PM
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My [pretend] money is on Bandini (15) 6/1
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Old 05-05-05, 02:19 PM
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A long shot bet to win - Coin Silver - 20-1 (especially if it's an off track) - if it is, I'm going to bet a few coins on him. However, if it's an off-track, you probably won't get 20-1 at post time.

I don't think much of Sun King's chances. I have doubts that he can get the 1 1/4. Of course, none of these horses have been a mile & a quarter.

Don't Get Mad was very impressive in the Derby Trial - the field wasn't a top-notch field, however. He might not be a bad bet at 30/1.

How about a long-short trifecta - Coin Silver, Don't Get Mad, and Flower Alley? It would pay a little, wouldn't it?
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Old 05-06-05, 10:51 AM
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Should be a great race,I'm going with Bellamy Road.

Anyone know if the Derby is broadcast in HD?
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Old 05-06-05, 11:02 AM
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Since you're from Louisiana, you should be going with the winner of the Louisiana Derby, High Limit.

He's lightly raced - only been to the post 4 times - won 3 of them. He's a Bobby Frankel horse - can't be all bad.
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Old 05-06-05, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by classicman2
Since you're from Louisiana, you should be going with the winner of the Louisiana Derby, High Limit.

He's lightly raced - only been to the post 4 times - won 3 of them. He's a Bobby Frankel horse - can't be all bad.
He definately has a shot at this thing,as do several others.But the gut is telling me to go with Bellamy Road.
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Old 05-06-05, 04:51 PM
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My money is on Bandini.
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Old 05-06-05, 07:05 PM
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Glad to see that classicman doesn't miss his thrice yearly posting in Sports.
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Old 05-07-05, 10:20 AM
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I'm going with Bandini to win and Don't Get Mad to place.
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Old 05-07-05, 10:27 AM
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Does anybody want me to run down to the track and place some bets for them? It won't take more than five minutes. Just PayPal me the money.



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Old 05-07-05, 05:45 PM
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Bandini (15) 6/1
Don't Get Mad (17) 30/1
High Limit (6) 12/1
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Old 05-07-05, 06:00 PM
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Way to mess up the fast notes the first time through, trumpet player.

Wow, there are some unnattracive women there.
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Old 05-07-05, 06:10 PM
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High Fly
Bellamy Road
Afleet Alex
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Old 05-07-05, 06:16 PM
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Giacomo?????????? !!!
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Old 05-07-05, 06:17 PM
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Looks like the experts got it wrong. 2nd biggest longshot in history to win...



Poor George...

He can't help it... He was born with a silver foot in his mouth.
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Old 05-07-05, 06:18 PM
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Exciting race
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Old 05-07-05, 06:19 PM
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So, $10 on that horse would have won $500?
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Old 05-07-05, 06:21 PM
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Damn, if you had the 1-2 correct you got PAID.
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Old 05-07-05, 06:22 PM
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This big field really made it tough to pick 'em, IMO.
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Old 05-07-05, 06:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Quake1028
Damn, if you had the 1-2 correct you got PAID.
Meh, only $9,814.80

The Superfecta pays $1.7Million???
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Old 05-07-05, 06:37 PM
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Bandini was next to last! Wow
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Old 05-07-05, 08:02 PM
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AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

My friend had 10, 12, 15 and 16!!!

THE TOP THREE WAS: 10, 18, 16

SO FRIGGING CLOSE TO BIG MONEY!

I just got back home from visiting him at work. He was pretty friggin ... uh .. down. So darn close.
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