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how many teams will be in each league in 15 years?

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how many teams will be in each league in 15 years?

Old 05-04-04, 11:19 AM
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how many teams will be in each league in 15 years?

right now:
32 NFL teams
30 MLB teams
30 NBA teams (including the Charlotte Bobcats)
30 NHL teams
10 MLS teams

how do you think things will breakdown fifteen years from now?
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Old 05-04-04, 11:31 AM
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Each league will lose at least four.

Except MLS - it will add at least ten.
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Old 05-04-04, 11:34 AM
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32 NFL
NBA - who cares
28 MLB
24 NHL
0 MLS
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Old 05-04-04, 11:37 AM
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Originally posted by Red Dog

24 NHL
Much more realistic than my conservative estimate.
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Old 05-04-04, 11:38 AM
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Personally, I think the NHL would be optimal at about 16.
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Old 05-04-04, 11:40 AM
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Hell, every league would be optimal at 16. The talent each team could have and the competition w/in the overrall league - it would be great.
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Old 05-04-04, 11:42 AM
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Originally posted by B.A.
Hell, every league would be optimal at 16. The talent each team could have and the competition w/in the overrall league - it would be great.

I disagree. There is the issue of market demand and the NFL is clearly optimal at 32. Baseball optimal number is probably 26 (number prior to 90s expansion).
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Old 05-04-04, 11:50 AM
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what is "ideal" is not necessarily destined to become reality.

I'd love to see a bunch of NHL teams and MLB teams go away. but is contraction more likely, or two teams merging into one?

I included MLS because it's not on the same level as the other four, but it could very well be, especially if the USA does well in international competition.

I don't see them adding more than 4-6 teams, though, regardless of any potential growth in popularity.
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Old 05-04-04, 11:55 AM
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Originally posted by Red Dog
I disagree. There is the issue of market demand and the NFL is clearly optimal at 32. Baseball optimal number is probably 26 (number prior to 90s expansion).
Then we will agree to disagree. I would love to see the the leagues shrink, especially so the talent pools aren't so watered down.
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Old 05-04-04, 12:00 PM
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Originally posted by B.A.
Then we will agree to disagree. I would love to see the the leagues shrink, especially so the talent pools aren't so watered down.
You really think that the NFL is watered down?
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Old 05-04-04, 12:01 PM
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Originally posted by B.A.
Then we will agree to disagree. I would love to see the the leagues shrink, especially so the talent pools aren't so watered down.

You have to balance product quality (which relates to supply) and demand (which means more than just television viewership demand) to determine the optimum number. Every league does need to shrink, except for the NFL. I really do not believe the quality of play in the NFL has decreased with the addition of 4 teams since 1995.
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Old 05-04-04, 12:31 PM
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Originally posted by Red Dog
You have to balance product quality (which relates to supply) and demand (which means more than just television viewership demand) to determine the optimum number. Every league does need to shrink, except for the NFL. I really do not believe the quality of play in the NFL has decreased with the addition of 4 teams since 1995.
I understand that is the case w/ the NFL right now - it's the most popular sport in the country, but who is to say that the same demand will be there in fifteen years.

Originally posted by chrisih8u
You really think that the NFL is watered down?
Sure it is, though not close to the extent of the NBA, NHL and MLB.
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Old 05-04-04, 12:43 PM
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Originally posted by B.A.
I understand that is the case w/ the NFL right now - it's the most popular sport in the country, but who is to say that the same demand will be there in fifteen years.

Look at the season ticket wait lists for the majority of teams - yeah, I think the demand will be there.
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Old 05-04-04, 12:58 PM
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Originally posted by Red Dog
Look at the season ticket wait lists for the majority of teams - yeah, I think the demand will be there.
Most likely, unless there is a major work stoppage, but the way the league is set up financially that shouldn't happen in the foreseeable future.
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Old 05-04-04, 01:03 PM
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Wouldn't 2 teams be the most unwatered down?
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Old 05-04-04, 01:19 PM
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Originally posted by Bushdog
Wouldn't 2 teams be the most unwatered down?
All-Star games are boring.
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Old 05-04-04, 01:55 PM
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Wow. No one thinks that there will be any more expansions? In any of the leagues?? Is the expansion era really over???

I would love to see a little bit of shrinkage, but I really don't see it happening in any of the leagues except for the NHL.
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Old 05-04-04, 02:50 PM
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Originally posted by B.A.
All-Star games are boring.
Well I just think the 'water down' theory is a joke. There is enough talent to go around. If you add teams, then you redefine what major league talent is. Therefore, no such thing as watering down.
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Old 05-04-04, 03:04 PM
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I don't think there will be any contraction. Even if the MLB does lose 2 teams (I doubt it), I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 expansion teams to replace them in the next 15-20 years.

I also expect the NBA to add a couple teams. 15 years is a long time and even though nobody cares about the NBA right now, those two rookies did pretty well, and who knows where Kobe or McGrady will end up playing. They just need to get a decent championship round and that's been difficult with the Eastern Conference being so horrible.
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Old 05-04-04, 04:01 PM
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Originally posted by Bushdog
Well I just think the 'water down' theory is a joke. There is enough talent to go around. If you add teams, then you redefine what major league talent is. Therefore, no such thing as watering down.
I see your point, but I still prefer mine.
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