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View Poll Results: When will Bonds catch/pass Rush
This season
13
11.30%
Next season
62
53.91%
Longer than that
8
6.96%
He wont make it
23
20.00%
Doesn't matter, twikoff is going to pass him anyways
9
7.83%
Voters: 115. You may not vote on this poll

When will Bonds catch/pass Ruth?

Old 04-14-04, 11:56 AM
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When will Bonds catch/pass Ruth?

Previous Thread

Bonds

vs Willie
Season: 3
Career: 661
Mays: 660
Need: DONE
Games remaining: 154


vs Babe
Season: 3
Career: 661
Babe: 714
Need: 53
Games remaining: 154


vs Aaron
Season: 3
Career: 661
Mays: 755
Need: 94
Games remaining: 154

Last edited by twikoff; 04-14-04 at 12:25 PM.
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Old 04-14-04, 11:58 AM
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You know, I think if Bonds stays healthy, he could have a shot at doing it this year. He'd need about 30 by the all-star break.
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Old 04-14-04, 11:59 AM
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HR: 3 (Career Total: 661)
Last HR: Tuesday, April 13, vs Milwaukee
Opposing Pitcher: Ben Ford
Projected Season HR: 61
Next Game: vs Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, April 14, 3:35 p.m. ET
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Old 04-14-04, 12:07 PM
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Comparisons & Stats

STAT PACK: COMPARING THE LEADERS
HomeRoadvs. RHvs. LH40+HiTitles
Hank Aaron3853705342218474
Babe Ruth347367495219116012
Willie Mays3353254512096524
Barry Bonds3253364592027732

BARRY BONDS: HR BREAKDOWN
BY:YEAR | PARK | VICTIMS | DAY | INNING |MONTH
1986: 161991: 251996: 422001: 73
1987: 251992: 341997: 402002: 46
1988: 241993: 461998: 372003: 45
1989: 191994: 371999: 342004: 3
1990: 331995: 332000: 49 


DATE PITCHER OPP SITE
1 6/4/1986 Craig McMurtry ATL ATL
100 7/12/1990 Andy Benes SDG PIT
200 7/8/1993 Jose DeLeon PHI PHI
300 4/27/1996 John Burkett FLA SFO
400 8/23/1998 Kirt Ojala FLA FLA
500 4/17/2001 Terry Adams LOS SFO
600 8/9/2002 Kip Wells PIT SFO

Last edited by twikoff; 04-14-04 at 12:17 PM.
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Old 04-14-04, 12:10 PM
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The better question is when will the ESPN hype machine start up again. In other words, at what points will ESPN start cutting in and televising every Bonds at-bat?
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Old 04-14-04, 12:25 PM
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Next season. He'll get walked to much to do it this year IMO, having lost Kent and Aurillia in the past two years the Giants really have no one to protect him.
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Old 04-14-04, 12:27 PM
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you know, it makes me wonder how many HR's Bonds would have at this point if he played in a hitter's park the last few years instead of SBC/Pac Bell? Not that he's been barely scraping the wall at SBC, but he's hit some bombs out to the dead areas in RCF and CF that would have gone out of some other parks.
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Old 04-14-04, 12:32 PM
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yep.. always makes you wonder when people point out that he is playing in a pitchers park
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Old 04-14-04, 12:35 PM
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Next season.
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Old 04-14-04, 12:35 PM
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Originally posted by El Scorcho
you know, it makes me wonder how many HR's Bonds would have at this point if he played in a hitter's park the last few years instead of SBC/Pac Bell? Not that he's been barely scraping the wall at SBC, but he's hit some bombs out to the dead areas in RCF and CF that would have gone out of some other parks.
Agreed. I think the Padres should trade for him to facilitate his run at the record.
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Old 04-14-04, 12:39 PM
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Originally posted by El Scorcho
you know, it makes me wonder how many HR's Bonds would have at this point if he played in a hitter's park the last few years instead of SBC/Pac Bell? Not that he's been barely scraping the wall at SBC, but he's hit some bombs out to the dead areas in RCF and CF that would have gone out of some other parks.
The same question can be asked about the Ruth (and Aaron probably). How many would Ruth have had if he didn't play in a bunch of parks where it was 450+ feet out in center field. Yikes.
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Old 04-14-04, 12:50 PM
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Originally posted by Jeremy517
The same question can be asked about the Ruth (and Aaron probably). How many would Ruth have had if he didn't play in a bunch of parks where it was 450+ feet out in center field. Yikes.
And no black players back then, no specialized pitchers, not as many pitch types, etc.

It's so damn hard to compare eras, as we all know. Which is why I like looking at how a player compares to his peers during his generation.

Ruth, just like Bonds, completely dominated his era. I mean shit, Bonds has 6 MVPs.

And then there's Ruth, who was the first to 30, 40, 50, and 60 HRs in seasons when players were only hitting 20 or so.

And then there's Mays, who played at the Polo Grounds for a while. And who played in the pitcher-happy 60's with dead balls, higher mounds, etc.

So hard to compare.
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Old 04-14-04, 12:56 PM
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Originally posted by El Scorcho
And then there's Mays, who played at the Polo Grounds for a while. And who played in the pitcher-happy 60's with dead balls, higher mounds, etc.
The Stick wasn't exactly a hitter's park either...
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Old 04-14-04, 12:58 PM
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Originally posted by LurkerDan
The Stick wasn't exactly a hitter's park either...
It was when the wind was relatively calm (compared to the Polo Grounds).
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Old 04-14-04, 12:59 PM
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I wasn't trying to argue against Barry or for Babe. I was just making a statement. As you say, it is useless to compare them head-to-head. You can only compare them agains their peers.

Bonds hasn't dominated the era (home run-wise, I mean) until recently. From '86-'00, he only won one home run title. Obviously he'd have more if the'd stop walking him 150-200 times per season, though.
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Old 04-14-04, 01:08 PM
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Which is why I like the HR/AB ratio more than flat HR numbers.

But yeah, Bonds hasn't dominated anything really before 1999 or so. You just have to sit and wonder what things would be like if managers had bigger cajones (or alternatively, were bigger idiots).

Still an amazing thing to get to watch Barry these last couple years, even if it is overhyped. I'll never forget watching Barry crush one off Schilling at Bank One Ballpark during his 73 HR run. He hit a line drive off a beam about 15 feet above that high center field wall.
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Old 04-14-04, 01:44 PM
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Ill go out on a limb and guarantee that Bonds wont hit a homerun today!

Barry Bonds' milestone home runs with number, date, pitcher, Bonds' team and opponent:

1 -- June 4, 1986, off Craig McMurtry, Pittsburgh at Atlanta

100 -- July 12, 1990, off Andy Benes, Pittsburgh vs. San Diego

200 -- July 8, 1993, off Jose DeLeon, San Francisco at Philadelphia

250 -- July 18, 1994, off Shawn Boskie, San Francisco at Philadelphia

300 -- April 30, 1996, off John Burkett, San Francisco vs. Florida

350 -- June 22, 1997, off Chan Ho Park, San Francisco vs. Los Angeles

400 -- August 23, 1998, off Kirt Ojala, San Francisco at Florida

450 -- April 15, 2000, off Todd Stottlemyre, San Francisco vs. Arizona

500 -- April 18, 2001, off Terry Adams, San Francisco vs. Los Angeles

550 -- August 27, 2001, off Kevin Appier, San Francisco at New York Mets

564 -- October 4, 2001, off Wilfredo Rodriguez, San Francisco at Houston, ties Mark McGwire for major-league season mark with 70 homers

567 -- October 7, 2001, off Dennis Springer, San Francisco vs. Los Angeles, sets major-league season mark with 73 homers

600 -- August 9, 2002, off Kip Wells, San Francisco vs. Pittsburgh

660 -- April 12, 2004, off Matt Kinney, San Francisco vs. Milwaukee, ties Willie Mays for third on baseball's career list

661 -- April 13, 2004, off Ben Ford, San Francisco vs. Milwaukee, passes Willie Mays for third on baseball's career list
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Old 04-14-04, 02:48 PM
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I think Bonds will get 50+ HR this year, but not enough to catch Ruth. He'll be just a few behind Ruth at the end of this season, kinda like how it ended last year with him being just a couple behind Mays. I'm guessing Bonds will end the season with 711 HR. It should be exciting to watch next season as he passes both Ruth and Aaron.
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Old 04-14-04, 03:28 PM
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Interesting that Benes served up his 100th HR.

I took the last option. Replace "twikoff" with "Pujols".
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Old 04-14-04, 03:28 PM
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how much longer is he under contract with SF?

i'm just going out on a hunch here, but I'd be SHOCKED if he doesn't end his career in pinstripes.

AL - gets to DH
AL East - lack of top-notch lefty pitching
Yankee Stadium - very, very friendly right field dimensions.

I think he'll pass Ruth in the House that Ruth built.
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Old 04-14-04, 04:16 PM
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Originally posted by AndyCapps

I took the last option. Replace "twikoff" with "Pujols".
might happen.. might happen for arod too..

of course.. its easy to point out that pujols has put up 3 of the best seasons to start a career ever..
2001 - 37
2002 - 34
2003 - 43
Total - 114
Average - 38
Needs - 641 (just to reach 755, no clue where Bonds might stop)

so all Pujols has to do is continue at this exact same blistering pace for the next 17 years.. without dealing with injures of off years.. and he can catch up.

He might be around for 20 years.. but man, it would be damn impressive if he could continue to bat exactly like he is now that entire span.

(yes, he could improve on those numbers.. but that would at best take a year or two off the timeframe)
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Old 04-14-04, 04:23 PM
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just for kicks.. lets do the numbers on Arod again too

first.. we will throw out arod's first 2 seasons.. because they only added up to 65 games and 5 homeruns..
Age - will be 29 on July 27th

Homeruns (96-03) - 340
Average (8 years) - 42.5
Needs - 409 (just to tie 755, again, no clue where bonds might end)

so if he can continue to hit about 40 per season.. he will only have to do it for another 10 seasons.. of course, that means no slumps (currently batting .172 w/ 1 homerun) and no injuries)

Arod has a decent shot.. especially if he plays till he is 40.. but considering the amount of money he has made.. I think it might come down to how many championships he has and how close he really is to the record when his contract runs up, on whether he considers staying.
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Old 04-14-04, 04:35 PM
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That's also counting on he and Jeter not eloping and leaving the Yankees once marriage becomes legal in NY.
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Old 04-14-04, 04:59 PM
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I'm going to post this here, since it was one of the last posts in the Mays thread.

Bonds' domination over the last 3 years, read on ESPN.com:

"Bonds' slugging percentage the last three years combined is .808 -- only Ruth has slugged .800 in a season. The next highest slugging percentage the last three years is .631 by Todd Helton. That .177 gap is larger than the gap between No. 2 and No. 98, Jeromy Burnitz. Bonds' on-base average the last three years combined is .542 -- .101 points higher than Jason Giambi's. That gap is larger than between No. 2 and No. 116, Paul Konerko."

Wow....
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Old 04-14-04, 05:36 PM
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deja vu?

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