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The Official Kentucky Derby Thread

Old 04-30-03, 10:57 PM
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The Official Kentucky Derby Thread

Anybody going to bet on the Derby? I'm thinking about it just for fun.

Here's a list of the horses, jockies, trainers, odds, and posts (see the table at the end of the article):

http://espn.go.com/horse/triplecrown...0/1547219.html

I still don't know how to create tables in the forum (even though I've read the FAQ on it), so if anybody knows how, please feel free to put that table into the thread.

Old 05-01-03, 02:43 AM
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Scrimshaw to win. D. Wayne Lukas and Kentucky drugs-tasty!
Old 05-01-03, 10:23 AM
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It's impossible (almost) to predict the derby winner. In a large field such as the derby (this year less than usual - only 17) and the race for the first turn at Churchill, the best horse, a large percentage of the time, does not win.

I play the ponies regularly, but I only bet on the Derby with combo bets in other races. Ah, once in a while I'll wager a little on a real long short in the field.
Old 05-01-03, 11:47 AM
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OK, here's the Kentucky Derby DVDTalk Betting Game. Just for fun, obviously (no bookies here). You have $50 in play money to bet on the Kentucky Derby. The race begins at 5:04pm CDT on Saturday, May 3. Any bets placed (or modified) after 5pm CDT on Saturday will be considered null and void.

To make things a little more interesting, if there at least five entries, Iíll mail a Budweiser key chain to the winner (if they want it).

Here is my entry:

5 - Peace Rules
$10 win

9 - Indian Express
$6 place

7 - Offlee Wild
$10 show

5-7-9 trifecta box: $12 ($2 per bet)

5-16-7 perfecta box: $12 ($4 per bet)

Last edited by Heat; 05-02-03 at 02:20 AM.
Old 05-01-03, 06:35 PM
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$50 to win on Scrimshaw.

jr
Old 05-01-03, 07:22 PM
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Originally posted by Heat
OK, here's the Kentucky Derby DVDTalk Betting Game. Just for fun, obviously (no bookies here). You have $50 in play money to bet on the Kentucky Derby. The race begins at 5:04pm CDT on Saturday, May 3. Any bets placed (or modified) after 5pm CDT will be considered null and void.

To make things a little more interesting, if there at least five entries, Iíll mail a Budweiser key chain to the winner (if they want it).

Here is my entry:

5 - Peace Rules
$10 win

9 - Indian Express
$6 place

7 - Offlee Wild
$10 show

5-7-9 trifecta box: $12 ($2 per bet)

5-16-7 perfecta box: $12 ($4 per bet)
Woohoo, a Budweister key chain!

Maybe you should explain the betting terminology to everyone. I think these are correct definitions, but I'm not totally sure:

Win - Horse comes in 1st.
Place - Horse comes in 2nd.
Show - Horse comes in 3rd.
Trifecta - The horses come in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, in whichever order. (I think)
Perfecta - Horses come in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the order you've selected. (I think)

I'm not sure how the odds on the trifecta and perfecta are determined, though.

Old 05-01-03, 07:26 PM
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Okay, here's my initial unedited bet (which I might change a few times between now and Saturday):

Perfecta: 16-9-5 - the whole fiddy bucks.

Old 05-01-03, 08:06 PM
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Originally posted by immortal_zeus
Win - Horse comes in 1st.
Place - Horse comes in 2nd.
Show - Horse comes in 3rd.
Trifecta - The horses come in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, in whichever order. (I think)
Perfecta - Horses come in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the order you've selected. (I think)
Your win/place/show definitions are correct, but to clarify in case someone doesn't know... if the horse finishes better than your bet, you still win, just less money. For example, betting a horse to show and having it finish first.

The perfecta (same as exacta) is choosing 2 horses to finish 1-2 in that exact order.
The trifecta is choosing 3 horses to finish exactly 1-2-3.
Another common bet is the quiniela (or exacta box). This is choosing 2 horses (like the exacta), but you win if your horses finish 1-2 in either order.

Hope that helps. I'm going to Lone Star Park in Grand Prairie (near Dallas) for the races on Saturday. Can't wait! I'll post my picks once I've decided. Last year, I was totally lucky for my office to get suite tickets on Derby day. I was sitting next to the company owner, who was preaching all day long about War Emblem. I watched in amazement as he put down $200 to win, and at 22-1 odds, he took $4400 on the race. Whew!
Jon

Last edited by SubZero; 05-01-03 at 08:12 PM.
Old 05-02-03, 02:26 AM
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Allright, here's the bets to date:

Heat: 5 - Peace Rules, $10 win
9 - Indian Express, $6 place
7 - Offlee Wild, $10 show
5-7-9 trifecta box: $12 ($2 per bet)
5-16-7 exacta box: $12 ($4 per bet)

John Richmond: 17 (Scrimshaw), $50 win

immortal_zeus: 16-9-5 exacta box ($16.66 per bet)

Red Dog: 16-Field exacta (straight): $30
6- Funny Cide $12 Show
12-5 (Empire Maker / Peace Rules) exacta box $4
12-6 (Empire Maker / Funny Cide) exacta box $4

If anybody else wants to pony up a small prize (less than $1 or so), in addition to the Budweiser keychain, feel free.

I just stopped by the off-track betting parlor to place $25 in bets on the Derby, mostly centering around #5, Peace Rules (I have a hunch on him). Of course, the last time I placed a bet was at last year's Kentucky Derby, where I lost $40 of $50 I bet.

Last edited by Heat; 05-02-03 at 01:13 PM.
Old 05-02-03, 09:11 AM
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Might take a trip up to Laurel to make some bets Saturday. Gotta go with Andrew Beyer's analysis and prediction...

$32 Exacta Wheel w/ Ten Most Wanted winning (that 16 $2 exacta bets for those of you paramutually challenged).

$10 Funny Cide to Show

$4 exacta box Empire Maker/Peace Rules

$4 exacta box Empire Maker/Funny Cide

Last edited by Red Dog; 05-02-03 at 11:04 AM.
Old 05-02-03, 10:58 AM
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Day before yesterday, I was at the OTB (Indian gaming center). There are a lot of horse players there - including some who are real horse players. Nearly everyone of them picked Ten Most Wanted as the winner. It's the first time I've seen such strong beliefs on a horse in the Derby as long as I can remember.
Old 05-02-03, 11:32 AM
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FYI - Sir Cherokee is a scratch, so that gives me $2 to play with. Increase my $10 Funny Cide Show bet to $12.
Old 05-02-03, 11:45 AM
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Buddy Gil looks really good in the saddling stall and walking around the paddock. He looks like a "fancy horse."

I would think the odds on him will shorten before post time. After all, he did win the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby. The only question about him is the 1 1/4, but that question should apply to all the horses in the field, because none of them has been a 1 mile and a quarter.
Old 05-03-03, 09:46 PM
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Results:

6 - Funny Cide - Win $27.60 / $12.40 / $8.20
12 - Empire Maker - Place $5.80 / $4.40
5 - Peace Rules - Show $6

6-12 Exacta: $97
6-12-5 Trifecta: $664.80

Returns:
Red Dog: $97 (6-12 box) + $49.20 (6 x $8.20) = $146.20 (won $96.20)
Heat: 0 (lost $50)
John Richmond: 0 (lost $50)
Immortal_Zues: 0 (lost $50)

Most of us shouldn't give up our day jobs.

Red Dog, send me your address and I'll send you a Budweiser keychain.

In real life, I bet $25, including a $2 show on #5, and a $3 show on #6, so I am looking at $12.30 + $6, or $18.30 (losing $6.70). Much better than last year, when I lost ~ $40.
Old 05-04-03, 07:50 AM
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Unfortunately, I did not make those 2 winning bets at the OTB yesterday.
Old 05-04-03, 08:55 AM
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I had a pretty good day yesterday - bet Frankel horses in all the races. Unfortunately, I didn't listen to my friend on the Oaks-Derby Double. I did have the Oaks winner but had Peace Rules in the Derby. My friend won about $9,500 yesterday.
Old 05-07-03, 11:31 AM
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Frankel: Empire Maker 50/50 for Preakness
By Bill Finley
Special to ESPN.com


Empire Maker is a possible starter for the Preakness, but a final decision will not be made until this weekend, trainer Bobby Frankel said Tuesday. Frankel set the odds at "50-50" that the beaten Kentucky Derby favorite will run in the Preakness.

"I don't know what I'm going to do and I won't until I get back to New York this weekend," said Frankel when reached in California. Both Empire Maker and expected Preakness starter Peace Rules are now stabled at Belmont Park.

"If Peace Rules is okay, he'll run in the Preakness," Frankel added.

Less than 14 hours after Empire Maker ran second in the Kentucky Derby, Frankel did not seem inclined to run the colt in the second leg of the Triple Crown. Sunday morning at Churchill Downs, he told reporters that he was likely to pass the Preakness and that Empire Maker could make his next start in the Belmont Stakes.

Since, there have been conflicting reports concerning his status for the Preakness. Pimlico officials reported Tuesday that they had been informed that both Frankel-trained horses would ship to the Baltimore track Wednesday, May 14 for the race.

The confirmed starters for the Preakness include five horses who started in the Derby, Funny Cide (1st), Peace Rules (3rd), Eye of the Tiger (5th), Scrimshaw (11th) and Indian Express (14th). Others likely to run are Champali, who was second in the Derby Trial, and Senor Swinger, who is coming off a win on the grass in the Crown Royal American Turf.

Funny Cide will make his next public appearance Saturday when he will school in the Belmont paddock between races.

"We want to get him used to the crowd," said trainer Barclay Tagg. "He got a little upset at Churchill Downs, but he never washed out. We just want him to be comfortable when he goes to the paddock for his next race."

The exact time of Funny Cide's schooling on Saturday will be determined later this week.

"We would want to go early in the day so we don't upset his feed schedule," Tagg said.

According to Pimlico officials, Tagg could arrive at Pimlico as early as Thursday of Preakness Week, but is still holding out the possibility that Funny Cide will be vanned from Belmont to Pimlico the morning of the race.

I think Empire Maker would be well-served to run the Preakness. Derby favorites tend to rebound nicely at Pimlico.
Old 05-08-03, 11:55 AM
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Looks like Empire Maker will skip the Preakness and shoot for the Belmont. Peace Rules is still iffy.

http://espn.go.com/horse/triplecrown...8/1550852.html

Funny Cide could be getting a free pass here and just might have a shot at the Triple Crown.
Old 05-10-03, 02:54 PM
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Photo of Derby-winning rider raises questions
By CHRIS DUNCAN, Associated Press Writer
May 10, 2003

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) -- Churchill Downs stewards began an investigation Saturday of a photograph that possibly shows winning Kentucky Derby jockey Jose Santos carrying something in his hand besides his whip as he crossed the finish line aboard Funny Cide.

The stewards scheduled a meeting for Tuesday that will include Santos, Funny Cide owner Jack Knowlton told The Associated Press. One Churchill Downs steward called the photo ``very suspicious.''

Chief Steward Bernie Hettel, the Kentucky Racing Commission's executive director, said at a news conference he would not comment further on the investigation. Steve Sexton, president of Churchill Downs, also wouldn't comment.

Knowlton said any accusations that Santos might have used an illegal aid to win the race are ``just absolutely, totally ridiculous.'' Funny Cide, a 12-1 shot, became the first New York-bred horse and first gelding since 1929 to win the Kentucky Derby, holding off favorite Empire Maker by 1 3/4 lengths last Saturday.

Commission rules do not prohibit a jockey from holding an object with his whip, other than those specifically prohibited, such as an electrical device that might make the horse run faster. It was not immediately clear what Santos might have been holding besides his whip.

The questions were raised after The Miami Herald published a story about the jockey, along with the photo. A reporter from the Herald brought the photo to the attention of the stewards on Thursday night.

The photo, which ran in several newspapers the morning after the race, depicts a dark area in the space between Santos' right hand and his whip.

``There's absolutely, positively not one iota to this and we're very, very disappointed that an individual can take the luster off what we all consider to be a great victory,'' said Knowlton, speaking by phone from the horse's barn at Belmont Park in New York.

Knowlton said he would attend the meeting Tuesday even though he plans to take Funny Cide to Baltimore to get ready for next Saturday's Preakness. The stewards -- Hettel, Rick Leigh and Jack Middleton -- have ultimate authority over a race's results.

Santos told the Herald on Friday he carried an object in his hand during the race and described it as a ``'cue' ring to call the outriders.''

``Why do you want to write about this negative 1/8 stuff 3/8 ?'' Santos said before he hung up the phone at Belmont Park, the Herald reported.

Santos said he was carrying the ring to alert an outrider to his presence. An outrider is a rider aboard a pony that can guide a thoroughbred before and after the race.

However, Santos told the Daily Racing Form on Saturday from Belmont that the Herald misunderstood and that it was a ``Q-ray'' bracelet that he regularly wears for arthritis. The jockey is from Chile and speaks English with a heavy accent.

Knowlton told the AP that the owners spoke to Santos at the barn Saturday morning.

``He had a bracelet on his arm. He always wears it, and that's what we have here,'' he said.

However, Santos appears to be wearing a bracelet on his left wrist in the photo, not his right. The Racing Form story did not address what Santos might have had in his right hand besides his whip.

Hettel and Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith told the Herald they have never heard of a cue ring.

Leigh told the newspaper the photograph looks ``very suspicious.''

It is unclear whether the dark image in Santos' hand is a shadow, the light green background of the silks worn by the jockey behind him or something illegal. Other photos show Santos firmly grasping the whip with his whole hand after crossing the finish line, the Herald said.

Getty Images photographer Jamie Squire said he magnified his picture to examine it more closely. He added that he was able to ``definitely see something in his hand besides the whip.''

Brandon Lopez, an editor at Getty, told the Herald the photograph was not altered.

When asked if riders are permitted to carry anything other than a whip, Hettel told the newspaper: ``Why would they want to? It's the biggest race of the year. You have enough to do with the whip and the reins that there is no reason to carry anything else.''

Santos was voted an Eclipse Award in 1988 as the nation's outstanding jockey and was the leading rider in purse earnings from 1986 to '89. This was his first Kentucky Derby victory.

``It's an unneeded distraction,'' Knowlton told the AP. ``We're trying to get the horse and all the horse's connections ready for the second leg of the Triple Crown.''

*************

What in sports isn't tainted today?
Old 05-11-03, 01:09 AM
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What would happen with all the money won if he is not the winner?
Old 05-11-03, 01:17 AM
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I would assume they would strip him of everything, and the winner would be whoever came in 2nd. (empire maker). Bobby frankel apparently thinks there is some chance of that, he is now going to run the preakness. In the still picture, it does look like there is some sort of small push button object in there, but in the frame by frame tv pics from a different angle, nothing can be seen. I'm guessing nothing will come from this....

Dave
Old 05-11-03, 01:21 AM
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Frankel looked at the video and decided there was nothing there (which there wasn't) so he is not running Empire Maker in the Preakness.

This whole thing has been the result of some very shoddy reporting.

jr
Old 05-11-03, 09:22 AM
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It appeared to me that Empire Maker labored to get the mile and a quarter. The Belmont is a mile and a half. Of course, Bailey would rate (or attempt to) him differently for the Belmont than he did at the Derby.

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