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Betting on a clear winner (?) Good strategy?

Old 01-17-03, 02:55 PM
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Betting on a clear winner (?) Good strategy?

Okay, I've been thinking about this lately...

Obviously the point spread is there so that you can bet on either team with a 1-1 payoff, and they try to pick as close as they can in order to balance it out.

But you can also place bets on who wins, without incorporating the point spread. To adjust, they give you a lower/higher payoff based on the odds of that occuring.

So let's say it's college football and Army is playing Miami. Obviously Miami WILL win this game and the payoff is only going to be like $10 on a $100 bet (made that up, may be less, may be more).

But there are a lot of bets like this out there. Are the payoffs really set so that if you bet every time on a game like this, in the end you'd still break even or lose, based on the rare unforeseeable upset?

Or do you think you could make "safe" bets like this and end up making money fairly consistently over time... then they're banking on people betting the other way to offset losses?

Thoughts?
Old 01-17-03, 03:03 PM
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I generally don't like it if you are betting the favorite, especially a small favorite. I think money line bets can be a sound strategy on selected underdogs.

Yes, I do think that you will lose in the long run if you consistently bet the money line on favorites. Keep in mind that you are not getting the true odds on such bets - the house edge is built into the bet.

The House Edge on a money line bet generally ranges from 1.7% to 4.5%.

For more info:
http://www.thewizardofodds.com/game/sports.html
Old 01-17-03, 03:04 PM
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Gambling isn't going to get you there...
Old 01-17-03, 05:51 PM
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Originally posted by Y2K Falcon
Gambling isn't going to get you there...

Shhhhhhhhhhhhh.... my year 2929 guess is coming closer to being a reality
Old 01-17-03, 06:41 PM
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Originally posted by Thor Simpson
So let's say it's college football and Army is playing Miami. Obviously Miami WILL win this game and the payoff is only going to be like $10 on a $100 bet (made that up, may be less, may be more).
Miami was a "clear winner" in the Fiesta Bowl, right? In games like that, if you play by the odds, betting $10 with the underdog could always pay off handsomely.
Old 01-17-03, 11:13 PM
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There are people who bet hundreds of thousands of dollars on "sure thing" horses to show hoping to get a quick 5% return on their money. They are called "bridge jumpers". Wanna guess why?

jr
Old 01-18-03, 01:52 AM
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Originally posted by John Richmond
They are called "bridge jumpers". Wanna guess why?

jr
Because they've jumped the bridge between poor betting and "wise" betting? Okay, cool.

I'm gonna bet all I have on a sure bet and see what happens. The bet? Seahawks winning the SuperBowl in 2004. Sure thing. Wish me luck!

Actually, not planning on betting soon myself... I was just curious. My big win on the Apple Cup this year (big payoff for tough odds) got me thinking about this whole sports betting world.
Old 01-18-03, 09:42 AM
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Well Miami was a sure thing against Rutgers. And, sure, they won in the end. But would it really be worth losing 10 years off your life to win $5 on a $1000 bet?
Old 01-18-03, 04:05 PM
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As you said, there is no "sure thing" and even one or two losses @ $100 a piece, will outweigh the meager gains you made in all of your wins. Betting the favorite on the ML over the long haul will only lead to lightening your wallet.
Old 01-19-03, 11:38 AM
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Originally posted by Gallant Pig
Shhhhhhhhhhhhh.... my year 2929 guess is coming closer to being a reality
That sounds like a "clear winner"!

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