This weekend I purchased an AI generator package (LTX for the record) and decided to write a couple of really short movies. The total run time between the two was 3 1/2 minutes and during that short time I got:

-People suddenly growing extra arms or legs in a shot
-Voices getting switched between characters in scenes
-Characters getting duplicated in a scene
-Images looking extremely different from what the AI script seemed to get correct from my idea
-People's faces morphing like they were demonically possessed
-Random out of place images emerging in the middle of story (I deleted them)

This was all that happened in under 4 minutes of content. At this rate, I don't see AI every really being a true threat to real movie making unless studios and filmmakers get really cheap and lazy.

"Ever"? Yes.

"Soon"? No.

My guess is the time and energy spent to input data into AI and then correct its output is too cost prohibitive. I'd wager it's still much cheaper to use talent and crew than a computer. I do think that will likely change some day, but that day isn't anywhere near today.

And that's a good thing.

Just as soon as we put on virtual reality goggles and it’s like Ready Player One. We were promised that around 30 years ago.

I’m sure lots of people are sitting on fortunes generated by playing musical chairs with those virtual reality stocks and buyouts. History repeats itself.

I don't think it will replace movies made by 'hand' but I can see it filling a niche, which for now should be whack-ass art film experiments. (I mean that in a good way!)

That depends what you mean by “soon”. That AI movie trailer thread floating around was only started a year ago and you can already see the improvements in the technology from the first trailer posted to the most recent.

“Soon” within the next couple of years? Probably not. “Soon” within the next decade? I can believe it.

It'll happen eventually, not completely replacing but as a sector.

I do absolutely see AI generated movies being released in the not too distant future (in my lifetime, so in the next 30+ years).

I don't see AI movies ever fully replacing traditional movies created with writers and actors, though. I have no idea what the balance will look like in 30 years, though. (AI to Real, 50/50? 30/70? 10/90?)

I think Hallmark Christmas movies are already well ahead of the curve!

I just edited a 15-second commercial for social media for a local brand and they generated all of the footage with AI. It looks a little bit "green screened" but the people look really good - it looks like real people on a fake background. And this isn't a brand with a lot of money. I'm not sure where they got this from but it was impressive. Not "movie quality" but there were no obvious red flags like messed up hands and faces.

We will have sequences in movies generated in AI very soon. Adobe just introduced a feature into Premiere that allows you to "extend" a piece of footage. So if a car is driving down the road and the shot cuts off, you can use AI to add some additional time to the sequence so the car continues further. As someone who has been shooting video professionally since the late 90s, it's fucking WILD to see.

We already have youtube channels creating two minute previews of AI movies, with everyone commenting "would watch!" Of course we will eventually have feature length versions of those, probably within five years. Not gonna lie, the 1950's AI SW prequels sounds pretty fascinating to me!

I've been using Topaz Photo AI to clean up and enlarge old low rez photos. And the AI improvements in just the past year have been really impressive. In the past, it would often have problems with certain details like fabric textures (especially wool sweaters), out of focus teeth/fingers, and replicating text. But they keep updating the software every week. And it seems like every time I use the software I get better results. I think in the next 5-10 years, the improvements in AI will be massive.

Now where is my flying car?

AI will ultimately change almost every facet of Western society, including the arts. Hollywood loves cutting production costs wherever they can. Though I suspect the first "great" AI film that becomes a hit will be made by someone outside the system. I'll say 2033 as a prediction.

When I retired I worked as an extra for fun. I think we are a way away from full blown AI movies but I can see AI extras and perhaps supporting actors fairly soon. Especially for some of the most fun jobs I worked like running down the street escaping from the green tennis ball that was a Transformer. The PA had to keep yelling at us to stop laughing.

This is what created the controversy and actors strike in 2023. While big name stars are most likely safe, the working actor using a two line gig as a bartender to pay the bills may be the one who gets screwed.

Brad Pitt started as an extra in movies like "No Way Out" and "No Man's Land". All big name stars had to start somewhere and those opportunities to make connections seem to be disappearing.

I've watched a lot of these "AI Trailers", and most of them look more interesting to me than anything Hollywood has done lately.

I use Topaz Photo and Video for work all the time - they are total gamechangers.

I record videos where people are reading scripts and despite my best efforts with teleprompters and other accomodations, they are often looking off-screen to do so. I have a subscription to a service that uses AI to make their eyes look like they are looking right down the barrel of the camera instead. 99% of the time you can't tell a difference. We're definitely getting there.

Look at the videos of Will Smith eating spaghetti when AI first started making them. And look at them a year later. The technology for AI generated content is advancing at an exponential rate. It won't be long until we can no longer determine what is AI and what isn't. Especially if used correctly. Will it ever make an entire movie on it's own and be commercially successful? I don't know. That's another thing entirely. But I don't think anyone can say for sure that's not a thing that will ever happen.

Look how many people already consume AI content through those terrible Tik Tok and other short form videos that are generated en masse. Or the articles that show up any time you type in "top...[insert product]". Or the infinite amount of "books" published on Amazon. So the demand is there. The tolerance is there. Will people actually pay for it?

It’s good for quick concepts or rough storyboarding, but anything beyond that turns into a surreal nightmare. The tech is improving fast, but it’s nowhere near replacing real filmmakers.