FRIDAY PM/SATURDAY AM: This is one of those weekends which can only be described as box office hell for Hollywood. Because no one can agree on which of the top two pics is #1. The info I’m getting is changing fast, and the film order will come down to late shows on the West Coast. All four newcomers are low- to medium-budget movies, but none will open to more than $15M this weekend. And total filmgoing likely won’t add up to a lot more than $80M, which is down a big -27% from last year. “It’s a close race to mediocrity with no winners,” one movie exec snarked to me.

Friday’s leader may or may not turn out to be Open Road’s handheld-camera End Of Watch (2,730 theaters). I hear the small distributor was even getting congratulatory calls from competitors after “extremely strong” West Coast late show numbers caused the pic to leap by $200K or $300K for $4.5M-$4.6M Friday and a $13+M weekend. Needless to say, that’s very surprising for this film which also topped midnight screenings. After all, it’s R-rated which limits its grosses, it’s playing in less theaters than rivals, and it’s starring Jake Gyllenhaal who’s been box office poison for major studios. But this cop drama is exactly his brand of smaller character-driven indie project With great reviews and an audience-rated CinemaScore of ‘A-’ that will expand word of mouth, End Of Watch‘s take could rival Open Road’s biggest to date, The Grey ($51.5M theatrical run). Made for only $7.5M, pic was acquired by Open Road for around $2M in February after execs saw it at a buyer’s screening at the Arclight and made the deal that night. P&A was around $20M. Written and produced and directed by David Ayer (Training Day, S.W.A.T, The Fast & The Furious), Gyllenhaal is an executive producer. Pic also stars Michael Peña and Anna Kendrick. Producers are John Lesher, Nigel Sinclair, Matt Jackson and David Ayer.

Neck and neck with $4.5M-$4.6M Friday for a $12M-$12.5M weekend is Relativity’s run of the mill horror flick, House At The End Of The Street (3,083 theaters). Its star Jennifer Lawrence has stayed warm at the box office. And audiences gave it a middling ‘B’ CinemaScore. Relativity for $2.5M acquired U.S. rights to market and distribute domestically, while Film Nation and A Bigger Boat independently produced the film with a budget just under $10M. Film Nation handled foreign sales and international distribution, and Alliance Films is distributing in Canada. Relativity claims an opening of $11M-$12M keeps the pic “on track for profitability across ancillary distribution channels including Netflix deal, home entertainment, television and digital sales”. (Isn’t it interesting how Relativity always claims it never loses money on its movies?) Relativity drafted off Lawrence’s built-in fan base by using The Hunger Games‘ home entertainment release on August 18th with targeted media and executed grassroots promotions. Because of her, Relativity targeted women.

Clint Eastwood’s baseball father and daughter melodrama Trouble With The Curve (3,212 theaters) for Warner Bros was supposed to be this weekend’s easy #1. But it’s looking now like $4.2M Friday for a $13+M weekend. So my sources already are calling it a “big disappointment” Friday. But it could get a Red State bump on Saturday to make it more competitive. A lot of uninformed types are going to claim this icon’s movie is underperforming because of the 82-year-old Clint’s rambling Republican National Convention performance with that empty chair. Oh, puh-leeze. First of all, his movies don’t open big and usually platform (unlike this). But they do have long legs. Two movies he both directed and starred in most recently — Gran Torino and Oscar-winner Million Dollar Baby – went on to earn over $100M. This latest won’t get near that. This time, Eastwood’s longtime collaborator Robert Lorenz at the helm. Its reviews are mediocre even though audiences gave it a ‘B+’ CinemaScore which should help word of mouth. But baseball pics lately do only passable box office even though Warner Bros hired a sports consultant to build awareness. The studio targeted older audiences – and launched the trailer with Hope Springs — since it’s not like Amy Adams or Justin Timberlake fill cineplex seats. Can Eastwood anymore? Ask me Sunday.

Lionsgate’s British/South African co-production low-budget reboot of John Wagner and Carlos Ezquerra’s cult favorite comics Dredd 3D (2,506 locations) did dreadful on Friday. Surprising, because Comic-Con fans seemed to accept this new Dredd as the real deal last summer, unlike the Sly Stallone version. Reviews were good, and audiences gave the pic a ‘B’ CinemaScore which won’t help or hurt word of mouth. Karl Urban stars as the titular character with Olivia Thirlby in an R-rated dark and gritty pic without lycra or gold codpieces. But his exaggerated Clint Eastwood-style line readings may not have been obviously satirical enough. The good news for Lionsgate is that it knew the film would underperform and has minimal risk. (I hear the studio is only responsible for P&A costs.) Interestingly, LG’s marketing campaign created a comic strip prequel to the film with the publisher 2000 AD as well as a Motion Comic that was released online. Dredd 3D also opened the Midnight Madness section of the Toronto Film Festival and as well as Fantastic Fest in Austin. But there was never much of an effort to widen the film’s appeal or the audience for it. Directed by Pete Travis from a screenplay written by Alex Garland, the film is produced by Andrew Macdonald, Allon Reich, and Alex Garland. Best about the film are those stunning slow motion photography sequences.

Meanwhile, The Weinstein Company’s critically acclaimed and Oscar buzzed The Master expands this weekend into 788 theaters after breaking art house records for its opening. Friday’s $1.4M take was a so-so $5,450 per screen average.