I posted my opinions of th HD DVD/Blue Ray market and the thread was closed? Since I never have seen anything like this I would like to add a few comments. First I have some excellent knowledge of mass retailers due to my business which is unrelated to dvds or entertainment per se however I know how they work and think. They DO NOT want to allocate space to three formats. How many customers will buy HDs and think they are regular DVDs. Same for Blue ray? put them in their regular players and call them defective.

DVDs rolled out slow yet became a force due to the fact they are vastly better than Video tape which they replace. So far the HD movies I have seen did not blow me away. The interface on Goodfellas seemed to highlight the new bookmarks and interface that is more detailed than regular dvds and easy to access. You would figure this to be a standard to the new hd disks and an improvement. On Cinderella man this way of using menus was not there. How are retailers going to deal with three types of disks? I bought a few hd disks from Best Buy. They have very strange inventories of the disks which are priced 20%-50% more than the regular DVD of the same movie. As a rule Blue Ray disks look to be the most expensive.

Good luck in telling American consumers to drop 500-1000.00 for a player. Provided they dont have the XBOX or PS3. The difference is lesser than VCR to DVD. Also that assumes they have a HD tv. I have for several years..

When DVDs came out there was Blockbuster. Now Netflix has HD and Blue Ray..in limited qtys. I ordered a few. Its taking far longer than ever. They dont want to take any chances either. The way I see it there will be a sort of compromise. Hybrid disk, HD one side/regular on the other. Both formats are going for broke. My comment on the PS3 (I think it will be a bust) had nothing to do with how long it has been out. Is is way too expensive for a mass market console. XBOX is the sweet spot. The PS2 is a good product and was a 200.00 item. PS3 is $600.00. That is a HUGE risk. I am not a Microsft fan at all but XBOX and WII will be the big winners.

I thought this topic header is HD talk? I am talking about HD and specifically the formats. One thing to note. If Sony cant sell enough PS3 units in fiscal 2007 Blue ray might be in a worse marketing position. Sony doesnt have the greatest record with propritary formats...check out their first mp3 layer that would not play mp3 format, or psp movies..betamax etc. Sometimes the best format isnt the winner. The consumer will decide..

Robert

This has mostly been banned as a topic. You might skirt around certain specific topics, but I doubt it. If you'd like to see why, search for the 5 HDDVD Vs. Bluray threads. (I think it ended at 5)

FWIW, your comparison to DVD rollout is incomplete. You deny a worthwhile comparison due to picture quality, but fail to realize/remember that DVD players came out MORE expensive than HDDVD players. And history and the present market suggest that both HDDVD and BD players will drop in price faster than DVD players did. How would that alter your analysis? Also keep in mind that the majority of the market doesn't care about picture quality as much as price.

Oh, and Blockbuster is starting to rent the HD discs, too. Limited so far.

Ok, my biggest problem is when someone wants to come on and talk about this and that and do not even type the product name correctly - Blu-Ray Disc. Retailers will allocate however much room is needed to make money. There could be 10 formats and if they were all making them money they would make room for all of them. They may not like it, but they deal. All these arguments are old news - as stated, see the vs. threads. At this point most of us are just tired of bickering about stuff and busy enjoying one or both of the new formats. Most of us do not care if Joe 6 pack ever "gets it." If enough people do, we will get plenty of great releases to watch - it worked for LD. So, in closing it was closed because it just is not that big of a deal that someone thinks they will fail - the people in the HD forum really don't care that someone thinks the formats are going to fail.

Oh, and I think the packaging and the stickers are pretty easy to see that you are getting something that will not work in a DVD player. It also appears from other discussions that retailers verify with the customer they know what they are getting.

Also, combo disc already exist and most people including myself hate them. So your hybrid disc theory really doesn't hold much water.

Where HD-DVD is blowing it, is the combo disc. The combo disc should be marketed to the DVD owner as a "future proof" purchase. I'm sure a decent percentage of DVD owners would buy a combo disc if it was only a few dollars more knowing they can use the disc now and in HD in the future. They should have actually started only releasing the combos. That way everyone who buys that film has the HD version and it may help push them into a player and thus more HD-DVDs. Right now, the combo discs are in the HD-DVD section. Now that I have an HD-DVD player, I hate the combo disc and refuse to buy it. Its forcing me to buy something I don't need. The prices for HD-DVD are weird in Canada. Walmart seems to have made a special deal because the regular HD-DVDs are often cheaper than the DVD. You can get almost every HD-DVD title for 23.88 Canadian (Approx. $20 U.S ) but the combo discs are $35-$40. The combo discs either have to have a price reduction or be ditched altogether.

I guess you don't remember when the bare-bones Star Trek DVDs were $24.99 at Best Buy.

And for the record, it's "Blu-Ray Disc".

My parents' first VHS player was $800, and that was back in the 80s. How much do you think that would amount to now, adjusting for inflation? And, as Spiky mentioned, the first DVD players were priced even higher than HD DVD players currently are. I don't really see the current pricing trend as an issue, since prices will definitely go down over time. Heck, the A1 was $500 when it debuted, and you can find them for less than $400 now; that's a 20% decrease in less than a year, for a new technology. I'd say that's damn good.

So, when Netflix came on for DVD, I take it they instantly had several copies of every movie available, thereby reducing wait time? Was that the case? HD DVD and Blu-Ray are NEW technologies, and it takes some time for market adjustment. DVD went through the SAME thing.

Yes, it's HD, but your posts have come off as slightly bombastic, and that's something that doesn't really work too well, given the heated debates this board has seen with the whole HD DVD/Blu-Ray debacle.

Let the dissection beginn!

You are so right. I am sure that Best Buy's aisle of HD DVD/BD's is a mirage. If there is money to be made, stores will sell a product.

There is some romanticization about how DVD came out at $30 for the players and overnight all stores were stocking them. WRONG. If you started into DVD after 2000, then maybe that is how you remember it, but that is not at all how it was. DVDs rolled out very slow, and there was a lot of resistance from the die hard LaserDisc fans, just as HD DVD and BD face resistance from similarly close-minded people who want to hold onto DVD with every ounce of strength.

The difference is not less. The paradigm shift is not as big, but the quality difference is staggering. Your comment about $500-$1000 players applied even more to the first models of DVD players when they came out.

Bzzt! Wrong. It was a long time before BBV started renting DVD. Alternatively, ON DAY ONE NetFlix was renting HD DVDs and even BD when it launched.

Are you a member of psychic friends? You can see the future, or depending on your sanity level, the present. There have been hybrid releases since the beginning of HD DVD.

Time will tell. PS3 has got huge buzz right now. The thousands PS3 sells for now says that someone is willing to drop serious coin on it.

Also, the PS2 was a $300 item until May of 2002.

We've had a number of very lengthy 'format war' threads discussing which, if either, of the formats will emerge on top. They invariably turned nasty, and we've generally been closing such threads since.

As long as either or both of these formats are adopted widely enough to keep a steady supply of titles coming, that's really all that matters to us. We buy HD DVD and Blu-ray movies for our own enjoyment, not to hop on a bandwagon. Whether or not some guy I've never met down the road buys a player doesn't make my HD DVDs look any better or worse.

Damn.

Reading through this thread makes it seem like it was posted before either launched. Here we are December '06 and someone is still posting why they think both will fail. Regardless of which format SUCCEEDS, the studios will not let either one die. DVD sales, while still strong, have leveled off. They need something new to keep pumping to the masses and a high-def disc is that something. HDtv sales are rising each year. Guess what the best way is to take advantage of that tv? Feeding it 1080p full resolution content, not 480i content, which is what dvd maxes out as. If more and more people are dropping $2000+ on new HDtv sets, they're not going to get upset to spend another $500 on a new high-def player. DVD isn't good enough. If it was, they wouldn't have developed these formats and there wouldn't be HDtvs. We would all settle for 480i resolution. But alot of won't. We want the best possible picture and that is high definition.

HDtv sales increasing? check
HDtv cable content increasing? check
PS3 and Xbox 360 HD game systems? check
HD movies on disc? Nah, who wants that crap.

When DVD launched, the price of software was IDENTICAL to the prices now for HD DVD and BD. Player prices will drop as will software prices. And neither is that high, considering you are getting much, much better picture and sound quality.

I mean, if I hated high-definition and I got really defensive if there was even a thought of something better than dvd out there, I certainly wouldn't be in the "HD" forum. I'd stay in the "DVD" forum. But I guess everyone's different.

Yeah, all these people braving cold weather, beatings, stabbings, shootings, mass hysteria to buy an HDTV for $900 tell me that neither HD-DVD or Blu-Ray Disc is going to fail.

Yep. Not just sales leveling off, but margins are getting squeezed. Plus, piracy is rampant.

Except that for J6P, upscaled, high bit-rate DVD looks pretty damn good. At $100 for the player and $15 or less for DVD, how can he justify $500-$1000 for a HD player and $25-$35 for software? Not everyone thinks the PQ difference is worth it. If the studios and manufacturers want to 'force' HD upon us, they need to do more than what they're currently doing.

I really can't disagree with that. For J6P to come aboard either quality has to *radically* improve (unlikely) or the prices have to drop.

There are currently titles on both formats that only look marginally better than an upconverted DVD. If people can play a $5 DVD of Christmas Vacation on a $100 upconversion player and have it look just about as good as a $25 HD DVD on a $400 player... well, I know how people like my parents will react.

Prices either need to drop or studios have to accept that both of these formats remain niche products.


I see the difference and respect the value of my A1 and HD DVD collection. But I can't say that a single one of my friends, family, or neighbors would take the plunge. And most of them own HDTVs.

These formats will eventually hook all home theater enthusiasts. But that's the easy part.

Dallas Morning News, June 30, 1997:

It took DVD years to surpass VHS sales and DVD was the fastest adopted electronic device in history ( DSN Retailing Today, June 4, 2001). I think it is a little early to predict failure of HD disc formats:

Can't have that J6P argument both ways. He's paying $20 a pop for DVDs, not $15. Sure there are budget titles, but for the most part J6P does not look for bargains, and probably does not upconvert his DVDs.

You can't say sometimes J6P is a savvy consumer and other times he's an idiot to make it support your assertions.

This adoption won't happen over night. DVD didn't take over the universe during its first year. Player and software prices will fall for these formats. While J6P enjoys dvd now, and more early adopters continue their support of high-def, players will eventually get to a price point he's happy with.

My main argument is SD is starting to get replaced by HD. Everything seems to be going that way. Game systems are going HD, cable broadcasts are going HD, SDtvs are getting phased out. So why would HD movies on a disc be the exception?

I'm wondering how much longer they will manufacture dvd players. If HD players can play both and get cheap enough to make, why continue producing dvd only units?

This exemplary person you mention did NOT buy a DVD when the players were $699 and the discs were $30 at retail. Why would they buy an HD DVD or Blu-Ray player now?

This person things about HD DVD or Blu-Ray when the players are $200-$300 (2007 or 2008) and there's more than 200 titles available for $20 or less (2007 or 2008).

Just give it time. DVD didn't "take off" until 1999 or so. If you disagree, you disagree with DVD Talk itself.

We still have another year or more before we get to that point.

At least through 2010.

Where did I say or even imply that? That's a misunderstanding on your part.

Maybe you don't realize it but Walmart is probably the largest DVD retailer in the US. I read somewhere that they account for close to 40% of all DVD sales in the US. Best Buy is somewhere around 15%. That's a huge margin. Walmart's average selling price is around $15. Higher for new releases, less for older titles.

Walmart also carries HDtvs. Mine has a huge section of them.

Doubtful.

Once there's a winner, there's no reason to make just a plain DVD player.

I have a question for some of you people to answer because LD wasn't on my radar..i was born in 85'.

it seems to me that, a lot of people here are AGAINST HD-DVD/Blu-Ray...I mean, there are plenty that do NOT want to upgrade....lot of people love it, a lot are skeptical, but a lot say NO.

How were the LD users when the first DVDs came out??.were they just as mad? Surely LD owners probably were 1000-1 to DVD owners, though, so their opinion really didn't matter or was even heard?

Just wanted to know how the electronic community felt about DVDs at the time. Because although they took of slowly, i didnt think many people were against them.

also...one thing about hd-dvd,blu-ray..will someone tell those guys at best buy to correctly calibrate the tv, i have YET been impressed by an hd-dvd at bb.

I didn't want to upgrade...at all. I remember asking someone "so do you think this DVD thing is going to catch on?"

All I needed to see was 1) PQ, 2) Price 3) special features 4) convenience...and I was hooked.

Was always pissed about the Audio Quality though.

You also have to remember that laserdisc was a bit of a niche product. DVD is not. You're going to get a lot of airheads who aren't as die-hard and think that DVD is "good enough" because, for them, it is.

I thought DVD would serve the same niche market as LD. I guess I was wrong. (What happened)

I just don't think a lot of people are going to be willing to upgrade to HD-DVD so soon after DVD especially considering that DVD is still going pretty strong.