Obviously the Oscar race is well backloaded, but July 1 being 1/2 way to the consideration cut-off, the market seems loaded with some early contenders. What do you guys think? I could see:

-Kirk Russel Best Actor nom for Miracle
-Sam Raimi and Mel Gibson best director nominations for Spidey/Passion
-Passion for Best Picture, possibly Spiderman 2 as well
-Napolean Dynamite best screenplay


Any other early contenders?

id put kill bill vol 2 for supporting actor (david carrodine), actress, picture and director.

whose Kirk Russel?

i'd 2nd KB v2 but I think DC would get Best Actor no?

So far I would give Best Picture Nominations to Passion of the Christ, Kill Bill Vol. 2, and Spider-Man 2.

Oops, typed it while runnin out the door, should be kurt, I'll amend the main post soon!

I'm willing to bet that none of those predictions will come true.

As much as I liked Spider-Man 2, and it will take quite a bit to top that one in my opinion the rest of the year, I can't see it getting any serious nominations this year. Just not the type of film the Academy goes for I guess.

As for Kill Bill Vol. 2, I would also be surprised to see it get anything. When the first volume came out, everybody was all over it, about how great it was and it would be nominated for this and that...look what happened. Expect more of the same this year. (That being said, I also didn't think the second volume was anything special. I was actually quite bored with it and thought the pacing was too awkward and the acting just adequate, but that's just my opinion.)

I would hope Kurt Russell is recognized for Miracle, but I get a feeling by the time the nominations come around, nobody will remember that film. It was also definitely one of my favorite performances so far this year though.

The Passion was a moving, yet very flawed, work of art. I would have no problem seeing it get nominated because it made even me, an agnostic, ask some serious questions and examine what I believe, but who knows how Hollywood will go on that one.

Bottom line for me I guess is it's still way to early to even be considering this question. Not many films stand out in my mind other than a few here and there. Will be much easier to figure this out as time goes on I guess.

I agree that Spider-Man 2 doesn't seem like the type of film that the Academy would nominate, however, Raiders of the Lost Ark did get nominated for Best Picture.

would the accadamy give mm the award for 9/11, especally after his speech about bush.

I'm sure he'll win best Doc, I didn't even list it because I think it's so obvious.

I think Jim Cazaviel for Best Actor for TPotC is a probability.

I hope Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind gets nominated for something.

Fahrenheit 9/11 will be nominated, but don't count out the McDonald's guy.

I'd like to see Uma Thurman get a nom for Best Actress, to recognize her work in Vol. 1 also (like ROTK was recognition for the LOTR trilogy).

I hope The Incredibles is good and beats out Shrek 2 for Best Animated Feature.

I agree with everything you said Drexl. Uma better get a nomination. I'm worried though that come December, she'll be long forgotten. I especially hope "The Incredibles" does well. Tough year for animated films. I'm sure "The Polar Express", "The Incredibles" and "Shrek 2" will all get a Best Animated Picture nomination.

Although a few nominations major should sneak through, it looks pretty sparse at this point. I could see Spiderman 2 getting a major nod or two if the rest of the year is weak, but otherwise not. I'm sure something already released will at least get a sound or visual effects nomination, however.

I think The Passion of the Christ should be nominated for Best Picture (at least based on what's come out so far), but I really doubt it will be. I expect Jim Caviezel to be nominated for Best Actor, however, and I also expect the movie to pick up a cinematography and score nod. I also would like to see Uma Thurman get nominated for Best Actress for Kill Bill v.2. It'd be nice if The Prisoner of Azkaban gets nominated for cinematography, score, or director, too.

It could be fun if we have The Passion and F911 head to head in the best picture category this year. It'd probably be the idealogical showdown of the year and drive one of the biggest Oscar ratings numbers in years, and pretty much guarantee 6 straight weeks of hype leading into the big show.

The only person that might be nominated for The Passion is Maia Morgenstern for Best Supporting Actress.

And six weeks of bitching afterwards about either the Liberal media or the Damn Catholics.

I'd agree with that and raise you a screenplay.

That's why there's a Best Documentary category.

The only thing we've seen so far that is a lock for a nomination is "Shrek 2" for animated feature, and "F911" for documentary. As far as the traditional catagories go, most noms go to films released during the holiday season.

I think there is some early buzz on Kevin Klien's performance in De-Lovely. Supposedly he is amazing and worthy of a best actor nomination. Also there is some buzz about Kim Basinger and Jeff Bridges in The Door in the Floor. I think both movies are released at the end of July. Lets see what happens.

It's summer. Non of these films will hit the oscar season. remember this is the time of year for popcorn flicks not oscar worthy films. Everything that will be in the oscars comes out later after the summer season. simple as that.

Strayed for Best Foreign Film