I'm not suggesting VOD will replace DVD/HD DVD/Blu-Ray/HVD/Quazarvision™/etc.

I am suggesting that probably for the next 20 years, we may not see a new format on disc. Look at the CD. It's been around for close to 30 years now. It might be around for another 30. The gramophone record still exists as a niche product. Why not CD?

DVD is going to be around for at least another five to ten years. What do you see as a physical medium replacement for HD DVD or Blu Ray?

HVD? Maybe in the data market, if they achieve economies of scale. But what does 1TB do for a movie? Nothing. At 26" most people can't tell the difference between HD and DVD. How can HD be "improved" upon? Maybe for those people with 90" projectors. But that's a miniscule microniche of a minority. You might as well ask who still plays 8-track or ATRAC (*snicker*). Are we going to see commercial release of 2K or 4K titles? Maybe in a decade. Maybe never. I remember HD DVD and Blu-Ray being talked about in the mid-90s, as DVD was being developed. If HVD hits the market, it won't be for a very very long time.

Did MP3 kill CD sales? No. Will VOD kill Blu-HD DVD sales? No.

But that's the next format. We're already having a hard time convincing people it's worthwhile to upgrade to HD. Using current display technology, we've probably hit our limit for the next decade or two. If not more.

HD is finally coming into the mainstream. And it's been in development for 35 years.

Even the best widely available displays, like Dell's 30" widescreen, only achieve twice the resolution of HD. As much as I like to dream about bacterial nano-displays powered by DNA discs, we have to face facts. HD DVD and Blu-Ray may be our last chance to hold physical media with content we've licensed purchased.

That has to be dealt with for music downloads, and the headaches aren't stopping the market for it expanding. And nowadays, people have to deal with the physical media, storage space, damage, keeping track of it, and the potential of losing it or outright theft.

I was writing about the near future, when quality and download time issues won't be as much of a factor. And when people are willing to wait for the mail for purchases and rentals today, an hour or so for a download, that could even start to be played before finished, may be not much of an inconvenience.

Again, music downloads face the same issues, and are still thriving. Plus, with downloads instead of streams, loss of internet access would be less of an issue.

You are aware that both BD and HD-DVD contain DRM, right? Its not so much a plus for consumers, and I'd rather it not exist, but since studios want it, the fact that online downloads can have it is a plus in terms of content availability.

When I was with Charter Cable, I had a Moxi DVR box. Moxi was working on a 4-tuner "main sever" box for a house that could then stream to other client boxes in the house. This was just for DVR content. I agree that prices will have to go down on storage and equipment before it becomes widely popular, but this is where I see technology going.

Then don't use it that way. Some people do like to use it that way though, and the video could be transferred to other things, like cell phones or TV setups in cars. I'm nust illustrating the portability of some of these options. Imagine bringing a 40-movie collection over to your friend's house to watch, in the form of a tiny device with HDMI-out. On your way over there you're listening to the 200 or so albums of music it's also holding.

If you look at my other posts, I think it's clear I don't think it will fully replace physical media. It is likely to become the next notable competing format though, much like Itunes is more of a competitor to CD than SACD or DVD-A are.

VOD is eventually going to be as easy to use as TIVO. When it reaches the level of the layman being able to turn on his cable box and select thousands to hundreds-of-thousand of TV show episodes, motion picture, short films, music videos, etc. to instantly or near-instantly access, what use does he have for a wall of DVDs the he watches each of only occasionally?

I think your timeline is off. Anyway, I can see HD-DVD and/or BD being around for the nest 15-20 years with no real new disc competitor.

I wasn't talking about bandwidth, I was talking about business model. In fact, as a business model, I see the napster subscription model even better. What is a cable subsription but paying for a better selection? And why are you paying for all those channels you don't watch? Wouldn't it be better to pay to watch what you want, when you want it?

1080p is the exception, because it's a logical progression. For LCD and other natively progressive screens, it's not even that much of a jump from handling 1080i. It's like NTSC TVs that can handle 480p. Any other notable improvements will have to improve the resolution, and that seems unlikely.

If they don't know the difference, where will the impetus to upgrade? We're talking about a whole new format here, some new physical format competitor to HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. The only advantage it would have would have to be improved quality, and the only noticable improvement would have to be more resolution or more audio channels. Do you see people really wanting more resolution than 1080p, or more audio channels than 8.1 in the next few decades? Especially after everyone will first have to switch to HDTV and HD discs, meaning a lot of people will have just switched when the hypothetical new format comes out?

Even more important than format is that HD discs are tied to the video standard of HDTV. People aren't going to be buying newer TVs with more resolution unless it becomes a new standard.

NTSC has existed for over 65 years. NTSC in color is over 50 years old. It took over 50 years before people were interested in any real numbers to a more advanced standard, and even now that seems more tied to the thickness of the screens than to the increase in resolution.

People are going to go into fits when NTSC transmission stops. Even then, many will just buy ATSC tuner boxes for their old sets. Upgrading to true HDTV will come slowly but surely, but it could be several decades before the FCC enforces any new massive standard change.

To me VOD is the future, for example, I was out in New Jersey a couple months ago and was staying at someone's house. They had the on-demand thing and I had never seen or tried it before, but I have to say it was the greatest thing. Granted there wasn't that many titles out there, but it was a heck of lot more convenient than getting up finding a DVD and putting it in (I was lazy and it was my vacation so sue me). So I was browsing through and lo and behold Entourage is listed and I'm a big fan of the show but hadn't yet watched season 2. I started watching and ended up watching like 3 or 4 episodes at a time. Then the next day more people in the house started watching not just because it was a good show but also because of on-demand.

Then I realized if they can do this on a massive scale this will likely kill for the most part physical media. Physical media will always have it's place but I found this to be much better, Even at home looking through my collection I find it sometimes daunting to go through and see what I want to watch. Sometimes it's almost difficult to make a decision to watch something. I have to agree with Bill Gates about the future not having any physical formats but only if they can get the bandwidth to support the kind of delivery that's needed for HD and beyond HD (4K format).

Have you ever seen a movie on TV that you already own but continue to watch because it's already on and you don't want to bother putting the DVD in? I know I've done that. I think that's the major reason people will enjoy on demand because it's convenient and the instant gratification.

Having on demand reduces the chances of your physical media getting damaged and leaves all the maintenance up to the content providers. Obviously cost is another concern but I think if they could have service similar to Itunes where you could choose to have it download to a media server or just stream the content that would really be key.

Time is a major factor because that's what it will take to get the content up. With massive amounts of data, it will take they a long time before they can get some sort of service running.

One great aspect of this is that you'll have less to upgrade. You won't have to buy a new DVD player or whatever it might be called. You might have to upgrade your receiver or TV generally speaking you won't have to upgrade too often. They can add new content to new titles like maybe a new DTS track to a movie or a newly upgraded video much faster with a content service like that. Kind of like how the XBOX 360 Dashboard gets it's updates.

Obviously this is not going to happen overnight and I would wager it will take at least 5-10 years more but I think that VOD is the way we will all access our movies and I prefer it that way. I will always love my collection but I think this will be a lot better all around.

A lack of physical media also would put all pricing control in the hands of the CP. Bye bye $5.50 movies, bye bye second hand sales, bye bye portability. VOD is a baaad idea for video.

Everything would end up being PPV.

That's definitely a downside no doubt but who's to say how the service will operate if in fact it happens.

Crap, crap, crap! I agree 100% but I don't like it. You wanna' know why? Because I will tend to watch something I have recorded, or have on my computer, rather than get my ass off the couch and have to make a decision about what DVD to watch. No one should be that lazy.

Copy protection is not such a bad thing when it comes to the physical discs because it just means you can't copy them. (I don't doubt that there are some people who are against the new formats for just this reason.) However, with downloads, they can be more restrictive, since they can lock you to a certain player or at least limit how many players you can play the content on without paying again for the content.

There are other issues to be concerned with when it comes to VOD:

-How about moratoriums? What's to stop Disney from pulling its animated classics any time they feel like it?

-What if contracts for music rights expire and they decide to change the online versions to replace the original music?

-What about the rights to a film, period? We've seen DVDs go OOP, but at least if you have the disc you can watch it indefinitely.

-What about international availability? Movies that are not available in a country may not be able to be "imported." Movies that are censored in certain countries may not be available without the cuts.

-If the rights for movies change from one distributor to another, what's to stop the new rights holder from demanding money for you to be able to continue to watch them?

-There's also the ability to track your viewing habits, which would understandably raise privacy concerns.

Then someone needs to put that warning up because Adam nor anyone else ever said anything like that.

Telling everyone here that they "have to respect a format" is seriously pushing things, IMHO. How do you respect a format!?!? It's not a person. In fact, it's no different from someone saying "WB sucks" in a superman thread or the like.

I think there needs to be some serious clarity on this issue if we're even going to bother having this thread. If we can't debate and discuss and offer our opinions, well, then you might as well close it.

That's what happens when you have such a large collection. You end up saying fuck it and just watch TV.

That post from namja pretty much clarified it for me.

Unless someone comes up with something in the vein of Itunes where once you buy it you can use it on whatever device you may have.

I think once you download it you should be able to access it forever. I would not like that if they did that. It would kind of show up like a video file in Windows Explorer but with a lot better interface maybe show some kind of artwork to go along with the file with metadata similar to a photo file. Obviously people who sign up to the service are out of luck after they decide to put it a title on moratorium.

Same thing would apply where once you download it it stays on your computer, media server or their service forever, but people will be out of luck if they decide to replace the original music. I'd be peeved about this situation the most.

A good service will allow you to keep the version that you intially downloaded and if you ever need to replace it they should allow you to download it again for example, if a hard drive crash kills your media server.

I think DVD will still be around and if you happen to want a title you should most likely will be able to download it and get it stored on your network.

For a streaming type service, this could very well happen but this happens fairly rarely. I don't know how to resolve that issue

Who's to say something like this isn't already happening? Look at best buy with their rewards card, I'm sure they're tracking everything we buy but most people aren't scared about it. I don't like the idea of them knowing what movies I watch either but I don't know what else could be done about this situation.

Actually, wasn't the adult film industry instrumental in the widespread succcess of videotape, dvd, and even the internet? Although I don't know if HD porn would be a good thing or a bad thing....that would depend very heavily on the performers....

It may be earlier in the thread, but are there publicly-accessible sales figures for the HD/BD players and disks? I know theBus has made some very cool and informative charts based on Amazon, but have they released any official stats?

Nothing official has been announced.

Well, iTunes does lock you into the iPod, and requires you to use the iTunes software.

It's possible that they may phone home to validate the license each time you play it, even if it's stored on your system (like the HD version of T2 on the Extreme Edition DVD). In that case, they could stop validating the license at some point.

Yes, but if they phone home they may not allow you to play it, and require you to download the new version.

It doesn't happen often, but just this year, we saw MGM and Dreamworks' catalogs change hands. This could be an issue for films from smaller studios and specialty labels like Criterion.

That's true, but at least it's not potentially tied to one system since you can buy from different stores if you wish. If you buy something at a store with cash, there's nothing to track at all. Also, right now they only track your purchase of a title, whereas if they phone home they know when you watch it.

Two articles:

http://www.betanews.com/article/Kuta...ine/1157731126

and

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=19515

Wow!

I just don't see how this doesn't turn out bad for Sony. You are giving MS yet another Christmas to build a huge following in the US and Europe and giving Nintendo a chance to have a huge December in Japan. Not to mention they will sell Wii consoles in the US and Europe as well. On top of that you are letting HD DVD have a chance at a good Christmas.

The HD movie thing is still going to be a relatively small market for awhile so Blu-ray can overcome that eventually if they get competitive with their movie quality and players, but the videogame console thing is going to be an issue.

It is going to be tough to sell Americans and Europeans on a $500 console when millions of people already have Xbox360 consoles and are selling their friends on getting them to play on Xbox Live with them. I'm seeing this kind of thing go on daily. After a frustrating Christmas many will probably have given up on the PS3 and grabbed a 360 or Wii instead.

Then there is Japan. They have zero interest in the 360, but they may jump all over the Wii. If there is a repeat of the DS destruction of the PSP in Japan then Sony will have a disaster on their hands.

That said, PS3 units will sell as they become available, but Sony dominating the market next gen now looks impossible. They are really going to be lucky if they can get an even split with MS and Nintendo.

I think Nintendo will end up owning this gen.

We may just have to put up a sticky like we did in the Video Game Talk Forum. I was hoping that it won't have to come down to that but maybe I'm wrong.


We had similar problems in the Video Game Talk Forum: PS3 v. Wii v. XBOX360. Oh, and they have a much stronger loyalty to their formats than we do here. But everyone was asked to respect all the consoles, and most people behaved. Those who continued to bash another console were banned. Comments like "WB sucks" is threadcrapping, and the moderators will ask you to stop if you keep posting that, and continued threadcrapping will result in a suspension/ban. But crapping on a competing format is much worse. If you want an explanation, then I will (HINT: think Politics Forum or Video Game Talk Forum).


Yup, we may very well close this thread if people can't be civil towards both formats. I'd rather have a thread closed than people banned. Yes, I'm keeping a closer eye on this thread because of a recent ban, which was only PARTLY his fault and PARTLY the fault of those egging him on.


namja
Moderator, DVD Talk Forums

While I agree with you, I thinking the egging went both ways. Many of us have become more negative towards Blu-ray because of some of the posts from the Sony and BD fanboys. You end up hating a format because of the people that act like fanboys instead of the merits of the actual format.

However, the mods have done a great job of eliminating the people pushing a format without reason or common sense and I think its important for us to be realistic about both formats. There is still nothing wrong with the Blu-ray technology. It will work out its problems, they will get players on the market that are high quality and they will have exclusives that make many of us end up owning both formats or maybe switching sides all together.

It really is more about the movies than the discs so I think our comments should stay within reason and stick to the facts we have about the format war. However, I fully understand why many people hate Blu-ray right now. Between the irritating fanboys and the arrogance and ignorance of Sony's press releases and statements its really hard to see the silver lining right now even though its definitely there for Blu-ray.

For each nonsensical post from a Sony Kool-Aid drinking member, we got posts from guys like Jay G. whose opinions may not mirror mine, but are certainly respected.

We crossed the 1,000 post threshold for this thread, so...if someone has cause to start a new one, feel free.