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Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

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Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Old 01-07-21, 01:52 PM
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Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

The GA wins seem to really the nail in the coffin of the republicans. The insurrection and Trumps antics just seem to seal the opinion deal. With that in mind ...

*) DC becomes a state, with +2 senate and more reliable dem reps
*) PR becomes a state, with +2 senate and more reliable dem reps
*) Laws Easier voting, universal registration, higher democratic turnout
*) Laws for Jerrymandering gets more sane, putting reliable republican house seats in jeopardy
*) Split republican base thanks to yesterday, turning off republican moderates in the general election
*) Maybe some supreme court stuffing?

And that's all in addition to the longer term demographic shift. It's gonna be a long time until the republicans show back up again

Single-payer healthcare will be nice to see

Of course, this hinges on the democrats getting their act together to do it all in two years.

Old 01-07-21, 01:57 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

I thought it was still up in the air how PR would vote when it comes to a Presidential election? The Florida results certainly opened my eyes to this possibility.

Also, Trump barely lost, and it seems to me like part of the reason why (and why Georgia was barely lost) is because of Trump himself turning off some voters. There are still way more than enough people (or states, I should say) that lean Republican that the Republican party isn't going to be decimated. Whether they can unify that base behind someone is the question (and the fear). If COVID continues to wreak havoc on the economy, it could all be blamed on the Dems.
Old 01-07-21, 02:06 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by fujishig View Post
I thought it was still up in the air how PR would vote when it comes to a Presidential election? The Florida results certainly opened my eyes to this possibility.

Latino Decisions, American Election Eve Poll 2020 .
Old 01-07-21, 02:07 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Yes, I think that's part of my point. With the House, Senate, and Presidency, the demographic shift, and the events of yesterday to push things through, "barely lost" is going to become "consistently looses"
Old 01-07-21, 02:07 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

With a 50-50 split, there will be no Supreme Court packing. Several center-right Democrats will peel away on that idea. Gerrymandering is done by the states and last I checked, there wasn't a wave of Democratic Governors or state legislators voted into office in November. Voter ID laws fall under the same umbrella. Now the Justice Dept might go after states restricting voting, but you have a 6-3 Republican court to plead your case to.

No, it's not going to be a panacea for Democrats. That being said, the Chaos of Trump in the White House will be over and that is a huge thing for this country. We have a chance to try to heal.
Old 01-07-21, 02:07 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by bryce0lynch View Post
The GA wins seem to really the nail in the coffin of the republicans. The insurrection and Trumps antics just seem to seal the opinion deal. With that in mind ...

*) DC becomes a state, with +2 senate and more reliable dem reps
*) PR becomes a state, with +2 senate and more reliable dem reps
*) Laws Easier voting, universal registration, higher democratic turnout
*) Laws for Jerrymandering gets more sane, putting reliable republican house seats in jeopardy
*) Split republican base thanks to yesterday, turning off republican moderates in the general election
*) Maybe some supreme court stuffing?

And that's all in addition to the longer term demographic shift. It's gonna be a long time until the republicans show back up again

Single-payer healthcare will be nice to see

Of course, this hinges on the democrats getting their act together to do it all in two years.
You need 60 votes in the Senate for most of that.

Or they have to change the rules of course, but I don't think there is a majority for that.
Old 01-07-21, 02:13 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Trump didn't barely lose the election, by his standards it was a historic landslide defeat.
Old 01-07-21, 02:15 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by WCChiCubsFan View Post
Trump didn't barely lose the election, by his standards it was a historic landslide defeat.
"and everybody knows it, especially the other side"
Old 01-07-21, 02:16 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by fujishig View Post
I thought it was still up in the air how PR would vote when it comes to a Presidential election? The Florida results certainly opened my eyes to this possibility.
Puerto Ricans, at least those who still live in Puerto Rico, are something like 85% Catholic and tend to skew socially conservative. However, they are also not Cuban so the anti-socialist boogeyman attack ads that Trump 2020 used to great effect in south Florida would not have had the same impact on voters in PR.

The two political parties in PR do not map easily to the Democratic and Republican parties on the mainland. However, it is widely agreed that the New Progressive Party (NPP) is the more conservative of the two parties, favoring a more conservative social agenda, tax cuts, etc. Ironically, it is the NPP that is strongly in favor of statehood while the more progressive Popular Democratic Party (PDP) that is against it. Also of note, the NPP has substantial majorities in both houses of the legislature and the governor's mansion and has won 7 of the last 8 executive elections. So while Puerto Ricans who have moved to the mainland tend to be more Democratic, it does not at all mean that PR itself would be a reliable two Senate seat boost for Democrats at all.
Old 01-07-21, 02:21 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by bryce0lynch View Post
Yes, I think that's part of my point. With the House, Senate, and Presidency, the demographic shift, and the events of yesterday to push things through, "barely lost" is going to become "consistently looses"
The demographic shift over time, sure, I can see that.

But more people were passionate enough to vote for him than any other candidate for President prior to this year. I am not yet comfortable in saying that Trump was lightning in a bottle considering how gullible a lot of his diehards seem to be.
Old 01-07-21, 02:23 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by VinVega View Post
With a 50-50 split, there will be no Supreme Court packing. Several center-right Democrats will peel away on that idea.
I think thereís a huge asterisk next to that, depending on what cases the court takes and how it rules. Overturn, or even just significantly weaken, Roe v Wade and you may see a lot more appetite for it. Personally I think thatís a really bad look and wish Democrats would do it now because itís right and not only after their inaction results in a negative outcome.
Old 01-07-21, 02:27 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by VinVega View Post
With a 50-50 split, there will be no Supreme Court packing. Several center-right Democrats will peel away on that idea. Gerrymandering is done by the states and last I checked, there wasn't a wave of Democratic Governors or state legislators voted into office in November. Voter ID laws fall under the same umbrella. Now the Justice Dept might go after states restricting voting, but you have a 6-3 Republican court to plead your case to.

No, it's not going to be a panacea for Democrats. That being said, the Chaos of Trump in the White House will be over and that is a huge thing for this country. We have a chance to try to heal.
Originally Posted by Mark_vdH View Post
You need 60 votes in the Senate for most of that.

Or they have to change the rules of course, but I don't think there is a majority for that.
Yep and Yep.

Justice Breyer will put in his retirement papers this June.

And for pete's sake, spell gerrymandering right.
Old 01-07-21, 02:28 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by VinVega View Post

No, it's not going to be a panacea for Democrats. That being said, the Chaos of Trump in the White House will be over and that is a huge thing for this country. We have a chance to try to heal.

I would love if that were the case, but I think this country will remain an open wound, ripe for further infection, for a while yet. If for no other reason than interested parties (our adversaries, entities with economic interests running counter to dems agendas) will keep that wound festering through more of the same psyops that have accelerated in the last decade.

To be clear, I'm talking about stuff like Fox News' nightly bullshit, which is in itself a form of psyop. Depending how long it takes to get regulated, social media is still going to remain a virulent breeding ground for more of this.

There is no off switch coming 1/21, it's gonna be a long, hard, slow slog through many election cycles yet.

As a reminder- it was three years after Ruby Ridge and two years after Waco that we had the most devastating terrorist attack on our soil up till 9/11. It's still the worst by domestic actors.

Focus on 2022 and flushing more R's out. Then the Herculean task of getting Kamala to win in 24 in a culture that is still adolescent and misogynistic.
That's going to be tough enough with all the MSM (and RWM) that thrive on conflict and who will suddenly appreciate remembering their role as a check on power and being the fourth branch of government after spending the last four years normalizing Tump's bullshit on a daily basis.
Old 01-07-21, 02:46 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
Yep and Yep.

Justice Breyer will put in his retirement papers this June.

And for pete's sake, spell gerrymandering right.

Old 01-07-21, 03:27 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Yesterday when Schumer was giving a press conference about the change in leadership in the Senate, (before the second race was called), someone asked him if he was going to have some sort of power sharing deal with Mitch since it was only 50-50, you could see it in his eyes that the answer Hell no!

I don't know what the Democrats are going to try to get through but certainly there should be no power sharing with the Republicans. Get your cabinet picks through as smoothly as possible and get every judicial appointment done without delay. I would like to see the Democrats bring as many things as possible to the floor for a vote so the American people can see how poorly the Republicans have actually run the body when they were in control.

Old 01-07-21, 03:29 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

The attack on the Capitol was perfectly timed in the election cycle. It won't change any minds in the next election. In two years, it will be forgotten by everyone except the liberals. The only way around that is to Benghazi it, to have congressional investigations every day from now until the election.

I expect a full-court press, with Republicans fighting every inch. They barely lost the senate seats in the Georgia special election, despite arguably criminal behavior by Trump. They picked up seats in the House in the general election. They lost the presidential election because Trump's wackiness energized the Democrats. Now they just have to keep everything on hold for two years and they'll expect better fortunes without Trump's loose cannon disruptions.

Biden will spend most of the next four years undoing the damage caused by Trump, and in 2022 the Democrats in Congress will be abandoned by the left for not passing their progressive agenda.
Old 01-07-21, 04:23 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by Nick Danger View Post
Biden will spend most of the next four years undoing the damage caused by Trump, and in 2022 the Democrats in Congress will be abandoned by the left for not passing their progressive agenda.
This happened before, but it doesn't mean it happens again (yet).

For one thing, Democrats will probably still be pretty energized in a few years ("look what happened in and after 2016"). This isn't quite a normal cycle.

On the other side, perhaps lots of Trump people (that don't moderate Republicans) will not turn out to vote. Most of Trump voters were Republicans, to be sure, but a sizeable share was just in it for Trump. These more or less "primarely-Trump voters" will not be as mobilized in 2022 or 2024.

Or at least I hope.
Old 01-07-21, 04:36 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

This is what indulging and excusing "crazy" for 4 years gets you. Well played GOP!
Old 01-07-21, 04:53 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by Nick Danger View Post
The attack on the Capitol was perfectly timed in the election cycle. It won't change any minds in the next election. In two years, it will be forgotten by everyone except the liberals. The only way around that is to Benghazi it, to have congressional investigations every day from now until the election.
.
You can expect yesterday's events to be used against every incumbent republican the next time they run. They're the poster boys for treason/domestic terrorism. The dem candidates may not go there, but PACS will and there will be ad after ad after ad with footage from yesterday tying the repub candidate to Trump and yesterday.
Old 01-07-21, 05:22 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by rw2516 View Post
You can expect yesterday's events to be used against every incumbent republican the next time they run. They're the poster boys for treason/domestic terrorism. The dem candidates may not go there, but PACS will and there will be ad after ad after ad with footage from yesterday tying the repub candidate to Trump and yesterday.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Dems went for it - I think most people realize Trump was treated too gently. Now they have 1000s of images of what happens when Trump and his fellow Republicans were in charge.
Old 01-07-21, 05:59 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by Mark_vdH View Post
On the other side, perhaps lots of Trump people (that don't moderate Republicans) will not turn out to vote. Most of Trump voters were Republicans, to be sure, but a sizeable share was just in it for Trump. These more or less "primarely-Trump voters" will not be as mobilized in 2022 or 2024.
I hope they are ... for a third party trump ticket. Maybe he can get third party candidates in most house districts also?! That would be great!


Old 01-07-21, 06:11 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by Mark_vdH View Post
Good opinion piece. It would be nice if middle America were horrified by the riot and things improved. They were horrified by Charlottesville, but it didn't last.

FOUR YEARS ago Donald Trump stood in front of the Capitol building to be sworn into office and promised to end “American carnage”. His term is concluding with a sitting president urging a mob to march on Congress—and then praising it after it had resorted to violence. Be in no doubt that Mr Trump is the author of this lethal attack on the heart of American democracy. His lies fed the grievance, his disregard for the constitution focused it on Congress and his demagoguery lit the fuse. Pictures of the mob storming the Capitol, gleefully broadcast in Moscow and Beijing just as they were lamented in Berlin and Paris, are the defining images of Mr Trump’s unAmerican presidency.

The Capitol violence pretended to be a show of power. In fact it masked two defeats. While Mr Trump’s supporters were breaking and entering, Congress was certifying the results of the president’s incontrovertible loss in November. While the mob was smashing windows, Democrats were celebrating a pair of unlikely victories in Georgia that will give them control of the Senate (see article). The mob’s grievances will reverberate through the Republican Party as it finds itself in opposition. And that will have consequences for the presidency of Joe Biden, which begins on January 20th.

Stand back from the nonsense about stolen elections, and the scale of Republicans’ failure under Mr Trump becomes clear. Having won the White House and retained majorities in Congress in 2016, defeat in Georgia means that the party has lost it all just four years later. The last time that happened to Republicans was in 1892, when news of Benjamin Harrison’s humiliation travelled by telegraph.

Normally, when a political party suffers a reverse on such a scale it learns some lessons and comes back stronger. That is what the Republicans did after Barry Goldwater’s defeat in 1964, and the Democrats after Walter Mondale lost in 1984.

Reinvention will be harder this time. Even in defeat, Mr Trump’s approval rating among Republicans has hovered around 90%—far better than George W. Bush’s 65% in the last month of his presidency. Mr Trump has exploited this popularity to create the myth that he won the presidential election. YouGov’s polling for The Economist finds that 64% of Republican voters think Mr Biden’s victory should be blocked by Congress.

Perhaps 70% of Republicans in the House and a quarter in the Senate connived in his conspiracy by vowing to attempt just that—to their shame, many of them persisted even after the storming of Congress. As an anti-democratic stunt, it had no precedent in the modern era (nor any chance of success). And yet it is also a sign of Mr Trump’s malign grip. After seeing how he ended the careers of loyalists like Jeff Sessions and almost single-handedly elected others, like Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, those facing primaries remain terrified of provoking him.

The election myth that Mr Trump has spun may thus have broken the feedback loop needed for the party to change. Ditching a failed leader and broken strategy is one thing. Abandoning someone whom you and most of your friends think is the rightful president, and whose power was taken away in a gigantic fraud by your political enemies, is something else entirely.

If something good is to come from this week’s insurrection, it will be that this way of thinking loses some of its purchase. The sight of a Trump supporter lounging in the Speaker’s chair should horrify Republican voters who like to think theirs is the party of order and of the constitution. To hear Mr Trump inciting riots on Capitol Hill may persuade parts of middle America to turn their back on him for good.

For Mr Biden, much depends on whether Trump-sceptic Republicans in the Senate share those conclusions. That is because the victories for Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, the first African-American to be elected as a Democrat to the Senate from the South, have suddenly opened up the possibility that government in Washington, DC, will be less plagued by Republican obstruction and Trumpian stunts.

A week ago, when the conventional view was that the Senate would remain in Republican control, it looked as if the ambitions of Mr Biden’s administration would be limited to what he could accomplish through executive orders and appointments to regulatory agencies. A 50-50 split in the Senate, with the vice-president, Kamala Harris, casting the tiebreaking vote, is as narrow a majority as it is possible to get. It will not miraculously let Mr Biden bring about the sweeping reforms many Democrats would like, but it will make a difference.

For example, Mr Biden will be able to get confirmation of his choices for the judiciary and for his cabinet. Control of the legislative agenda in the Senate will pass from the Republicans to the Democrats. Mitch McConnell, the outgoing Senate majority leader who spoke powerfully this week against Mr Trump’s institutional vandalism, was a master of blocking votes that might divide his caucus. That created the gridlock in Washington that voters usually blame on the president’s party.

Democrats may also be able to get some measures through the Senate via reconciliation, a procedural quirk that allows budget bills to pass with a majority of one or more, rather than the 60 votes needed to avoid a filibuster, which will remain, however much the leftist wing of the party would like to drop it.

Where Republicans come in is in the scope for cross-party votes. The more they feel that Middle America was horrified by the riot, the more likely that some of them will reject the nihilism of blocking everything for the sake of it. The more their caucus is at war with itself, the freer they will be to do their part to restore faith in the republic by accomplishing something.

For Republicans, the cost of the cursed deal their party did with Mr Trump has never been clearer. The results in November provided signs that a reformed party could win national elections again. American voters remain wary of big government and have not handed one party more than two consecutive terms in the White House since 1992. But to become successful and, more important, to strengthen America’s democracy once more rather than pose a threat to it, they need to cast off Mr Trump. For, in addition to being a loser of historic proportions, he has proved himself willing to incite carnage in the Capitol.■
Old 01-07-21, 07:52 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

This got pushed to the side.

https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/edi...-20210105.html

Pennsylvania Democrat won an election is being blocked by Republican majority.

His votes are certified. He won by a narrow 69 votes. I assume they were audited again and again.

The election's loser is disputing the vote count again.

There was a tense dispute a couple days ago. Republicans removed the Lt. Governor for refusing to accept Republican's obstruction. It was overshadowed by the DC insurrection.

I guess the new normal is "if you lose an election, just say you won".
Old 01-07-21, 08:20 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

If the margin is only 69 votes, it's reasonable to keep fighting. The editorial says that a suit is pending. Even in normal times there might be a recount.

Old 01-07-21, 08:29 PM
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Re: Senate Consequences, Democratic Control

Originally Posted by Nick Danger View Post
If the margin is only 69 votes, it's reasonable to keep fighting. The editorial says that a suit is pending. Even in normal times there might be a recount.
I kind of agree. Al Frankin had to wait 8 months to settle all disputes before he was seated after a razor thin victory in Minnesota.

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