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Will the Union survive Trump?

Old 05-05-20, 02:39 PM
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Will the Union survive Trump?

I don't think Trump wants to break apart the United States. I'm not a conspiracy theorist. (For example, I believe he's a "useful idiot" for Russia, not a willing collaborator.) But I think he could inadvertently push the country in the direction of a breakup. To be clear, I think the PROBABILITY IS LOW. At the same time, I think the PROBABILITY IS INCREASING.

Trump's modus operandi is "divide and conquer." He pits people against one another and attempts to benefit. That's how he has operated during the Republican primaries, the presidential campaign, and his presidency.

During this coronavirus crisis, Trump has made some decisions that increase the likelihood of a breakup.

First, he bungled the initial response and, in an attempt to save face and avoid blame, shifted the burden to the states. Regions (i.e. groups of states) are now working together to combat the virus. It is reasonable for these regions to conclude that they work better together than with the federal government.

Second, Trump has repeatedly accused blue states of being poorly managed, echoing the "blue state bailout" language of McConnell. This claim infuriates many citizens of blue states. The truth is that the blue states such as New York and California have been subsidizing the red states for years. Blue states tend to contribute more to the federal pot, and red states tend to take more out of the pot. To add insult to injury, Trump is seeking to extort the blue states. He says he will only provide emergency funding if blue states agree to his terms.


I am now seeing more and more people openly question whether this relationship is working.

What could be the tipping point? Trump losing the popular vote AGAIN and yet winning the electoral college AGAIN -- especially if there are signs of foreign influence, voter suppression, etc. If Trump wins again, he will be truly unleashed. Only God knows what he will do.

I will now quote some of my posts from months ago where I argue that a breakup is becoming more and more likely and is perhaps in the long-term best interest of certain regions.

At this point, I would honestly like to see the eastern and western coastal states secede. I was born and raised in the Midwest and lived several years in a Southern state, and I know there are decent people there. Nevertheless, I am ready to say, "I want a divorce."

New England and New California can go in the direction of Western Europe, and the South and Midwest can go back in time. I'm sure that there would be a lot of trade-offs, but I think the coastal states would be better off in the long term without the rest of the country holding them back.
I know talk of secession is considered out of bounds, but I think the marriage analogy is apt. There are irreconcilable differences between the parties. In the long run, separation is in their best interests.

If Trump continues to indulge his authoritarian impulses and act like president of the red states, I could see serious talk of secession if Trump wins in 2020.
Will the United States probably survive in its current form? Yes. I'm not predicting peaceful (or unpeaceful) secession of certain states. It's possible but unlikely due to constitutional roadblocks, short-term costs, and other reasons. This is somewhat similar to the very real Brexit or the hypothetical independence of Scotland.

But there is a difference between surviving and thriving. I strongly believe New England and the West Coast would be better off without the rest of the country. Many Western European countries have done a much better job of investing in their people, resulting in a higher quality of life. It's pretty clear who is standing in the way of similar programs in the United States.

What's the primary responsibility of government? Some people say protection (e.g. military, police, firefighters, etc.). I say promoting the well-being of its people, and providing protection is only one part of that equation. The U.S. government is doing a mediocre job at best by that measure.
I also note that the original Declaration of Independence discussed a tyrant, and Trump is arguably the closest thing that we've seen in the modern era. To a large extent, he has been restrained by people in the White House, but we know that he has authoritarian impulses. He twice ordered the firing of Mueller. He wants to sue certain news organizations, take away their licenses, block their mergers, and mess with their government contracts. He openly tells his Justice Department to target his political opponents. And so on and so forth. If he eventually becomes unshackled, then who knows what he will actually do.

On a somewhat related note, we already know that Trump has committed multiple felonies: obstruction of justice, campaign finance violations, and tax fraud. (The last one is apparently past the statute of limitations.) He should be impeached today. And we don't know what the Russia investigation will reveal. What if the Trump campaign really did conspire with Russia in a number of ways to gain an advantage in the 2016 election? Do you think Trump is going to say, "You got me...I resign effective noon tomorrow"? Ha!

With that in mind, it may not sound that crazy for people to be discussing secession a few years from now. We'll have to see what happens.
Old 05-05-20, 02:46 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

By the way, some well-respected historians (e.g. H. W. Brands of the University of Texas) have been saying that a breakup is becoming increasingly likely, too. This isn't as "far out" as you may think.
Old 05-05-20, 02:53 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

I agree in that it is unlikely, but more likely than previously.
Old 05-05-20, 02:56 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

I do think if some states broke off, it would be an interesting time for reflection ... We've got 200+ years of seeing what's wrong with our constitution. We can figure out what can be done to fix it so that we don't end up in this place again. I don't believe that's something that's ever fixable while we stay the 50 united states. The red states are holding us back too much.
Old 05-05-20, 02:59 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

I don’t see how this would be good for the long term if Trump is only potentially in office for 4 more years.

When Obama was in office there was a petition going around, Texas or southern states, that wanted to secede. Then, early in Trump’s current term, people were talking about California seceding, calling it CalExit.

Old 05-05-20, 03:02 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

IMO still unlikely, but much less unlikely than before. I've been thinking that for awhile now, the fault lines are getting deeper and uglier, something eventually has to give, like an earthquake releases pressure from tectonic plates. I personally think that some eventual type of civil war and unrest will lead to a separation of some sort, but I have no idea when. The current situation is NOT sustainable for a healthy country, but there seems to be zero political will to fix things.
Old 05-05-20, 03:02 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

I just find it hilarious when they say that the most prosperous blue states are mismanaged. Usually it's some tool in the bumfuck south talking shit but now it Chump. Yeah, California is soooooo mismanaged, you know, because being the fifth largest economy on earth is being mismanaged. Riiiiiight.
Old 05-05-20, 03:05 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

Get rid of the two party system.
Get rid of the seemingly perpetual election cycle.

To use a sports analogy, you only have 2 teams, the Eagles and the Cowboys, playing every weekend the entire year. So much partisanship/division is no longer sustainable.
Old 05-05-20, 03:05 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

Originally Posted by Why So Blu? View Post
because being the fifth largest economy on earth is being mismanaged. Riiiiiight.
Well, I mean ... isn't the USA the LARGEST economy on earth? It's certainly being mismanaged.
Old 05-05-20, 03:23 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

Originally Posted by Why So Blu? View Post
I just find it hilarious when they say that the most prosperous blue states mismanaged. Usually it's some tool in the bumfuck south talking shit but now it Chump. Yeah, California is soooooo mismanaged, you know, because being the fifth largest economy on earth is being mismanaged. Riiiiiight.
The US is one of the largest economies in the world. Does that mean the country’s not being mismanaged?

California is a prosperous state but for who? Prior to the pandemic, a substantial amount of people I knew were leaving or left the state because the cost of living is insane and places like SF’s solution is to roll back building regulations to create “micro-units.”

Small businesses owners were complying about unfair laws and regulations that made it extremely difficult for them to make a reasonable profit.

Not to mention the homeless population seems to have exploded here. I see entire homeless encampments lined up all over the place now.
Old 05-05-20, 03:30 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

Originally Posted by joeblow69 View Post
Well, I mean ... isn't the USA the LARGEST economy on earth? It's certainly being mismanaged.

Right, so as a separate unit for statistical purposes, CA fucking rocks.
Old 05-05-20, 03:37 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

Originally Posted by brayzie View Post
The US is one of the largest economies in the world. Does that mean the country’s not being mismanaged?

California is a prosperous state but for who? Prior to the pandemic, a substantial amount of people I knew were leaving or left the state because the cost of living is insane and places like SF’s solution is to roll back building regulations to create “micro-units.”

Small businesses owners were complying about unfair laws and regulations that made it extremely difficult for them to make a reasonable profit.

Not to mention the homeless population seems to have exploded here. I see entire homeless encampments lined up all over the place now.

Sure, in some cases they leave, but they leave with savings and new job prospects, with a pay cut. Not only that, but you'll have the locals shitting on them for being. new transplants and buying property with that Cali cash and pricing out the locals that don't have shit. There was a story a few months ago in Idaho that showcased how much folks from California were disliked, not even on politics issues, but because they had more money to buy property there in cash that the locals were being priced out.

Old 05-05-20, 03:40 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

I found the interview of H. W. Brands, the Jack S. Blanton Sr. Chair in History at the University of Texas at Austin. He appeared on Morning Joe to discuss his most recent book. I've quoted the key sections below.

Book on US history looks at spirit of compromise at MSNBC.com

So, the era of my three protagonists [Henry Clay, Daniel Webster, and John Calhoun] was the era ... when compromise was understood as the way to move things forward. There was an appreciation that democracy is fragile, and it needs tending. Now what happened after they died ... is that the spirit of compromise died with them. And within ten years, the country was at civil war. Now the way I see where we are today, there was a period in the 20th century when compromise was considered an honorable aspect of doing politics. And if you look at the reforms of Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson, and even to the Reagan administration, all the big measures in those days were passed with bipartisan majorities. But since then, the idea that compromise is something that you can take to the polls and get re-elected on is largely gone by the boards. And I'm alarmed to feel that perhaps -- and I don't want to say exactly that we're in the 1850s and there's a civil war ahead -- but I do see alarming parallels.
Until very recently, I thought there was no chance that our current time would look like the 1850s and wind up with a civil war because the principal and most divisive issue then was slavery, which was by the 1850s very sectional. It was North against South. And so it was entirely possible to conceive of a geographic separation of the Union. And until recently, our divide has been partisan, rather than sectional. But as the red states get redder and the blue states get bluer, it's not impossible to imagine California, Oregon, and Washington deciding, you know, we've had enough of this. Suppose Roe v. Wade gets overturned, and there's a move to prohibit abortion nationwide. Then there will be certain parts of the country that say ... we can't live in this Union anymore, which is basically the situation that the South took in 1861.
Old 05-05-20, 03:52 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

Originally Posted by Why So Blu? View Post
Sure, in some cases they leave, but they leave with savings and new job prospects, with a pay cut.
Which doesn’t change the fact that they can’t afford to live in California.

Not only that, but you'll have the locals shitting on them for being. new transplants and buying property with that Cali cash and pricing out the locals that don't have shit.
Yeah, I know of that situation too. But most of the people I know are continuing to rent in their new locations. They’re not buying houses or property.


There was a story a few months ago in Idaho that showcased how much folks from California were disliked, not even on politics issues, but because they had more money to buy property there in cash that the locals were being priced out.
Id like to know the background on this. These people have savings and resources to buy property in Idaho, but can’t afford to live in California at all? The people I do know that end up moving out of state to buy a home is because they specifically want to be homeowners, not because they can’t afford an apartment here. That’s different from people who can’t even afford a 1 bedroom apartment or need to live pay check to pay check in order to do it.
Old 05-05-20, 03:55 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

It is just talk, because if states like LA, MS, GA, KY, SC, NC, IN, WY, AZ, etc. want to leave to form their own country I say go for it. This is what keeps McConnell up at night with heartburn, the idea that all these "poorly mismanaged" Blue States decide that hey, those Red State folks are onto something and it would be a good idea to decouple themselves from the South. The Red States would have to use force to get the Blue states to financially support them and without that poorly mismanaged Blue State cash they would become failed states, think Haiti, certain countries in Africa...if McConnell had more balls he would ask President Trump to stop putting that idea inside the heads of his base because they might think it is a good idea to break off from the rest of the U.S. but the politicians in these Red States know that as a path that only ends in disaster.

Places like CA, NY, TX, well...on those list that say if so and so state was their own country where would they rank on the list of largest economies in the world, they all show up pretty high up on the list (I think TX would be considered the 7th or is it 11th largest economy in the world if they were their own country). You will notice I did not lump TX in with the Red States because if states started breaking apart from the U.S. I am not sure that TX would want to remain connected to places like KY...if TX was given the green light to secede I bet that they would prefer to become their own country (straight up the country of TX, given their size) rather than be associated with other states that cluster together to form their own nation.

Nah...President Trump is old and mentally declining on a daily basis, this will catch up with him sooner than people think and his base will try to quietly latch onto the next rising star in the GOP. KY wants to lose the Federal Blue state dollars that flow into their state like you or I want another hole in our head.
Old 05-05-20, 03:59 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

Originally Posted by Ghostbuster View Post
I found the interview of H. W. Brands, the Jack S. Blanton Sr. Chair in History at the University of Texas at Austin. He appeared on Morning Joe to discuss his most recent book. I've quoted the key sections below.

Book on US history looks at spirit of compromise at MSNBC.com
​​​​​
I should note that poll after poll shows that everyday Democrats, whether their party is in or out of power, are much more willing to compromise than everyday Republicans. By "everyday," I'm referring to ordinary people. The Republican Party -- the leaders and the base -- has an insatiable will to dominate others.

Here's the best summary of the modern Republican Party that I've seen.

Let’s just say it: The Republicans are the problem at the WashingtonPost.com

The GOP has become an insurgent outlier in American politics. It is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition.

When one party moves this far from the mainstream, it makes it nearly impossible for the political system to deal constructively with the country’s challenges.
Old 05-05-20, 04:32 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

An interesting thread. Along the same lines as Texas, I hope California, Oregon, and Washington, become their own country. They would be entirely responsible for their own decisions, rather than having the Fed (meaning the other states) pay for it all.
Old 05-05-20, 04:41 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
An interesting thread. Along the same lines as Texas, I hope California, Oregon, and Washington, become their own country. They would be entirely responsible for their own decisions, rather than having the Fed (meaning the other states) pay for it all.
I'd like to see it just to watch the red states implode when it turns out racism and ignorance can't pay the bills.
Old 05-05-20, 04:58 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
An interesting thread. Along the same lines as Texas, I hope California, Oregon, and Washington, become their own country. They would be entirely responsible for their own decisions, rather than having the Fed (meaning the other states) pay for it all.
Mitch, is that you?
Old 05-05-20, 05:00 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

The biggest problem I see with a breakup for the blue states is that most of the food is grown/raised in the red states. I'm sure the first thing they would do would be to ban exports of food to the blue states. This would, of course, really hurt the economies of both red & blue states, but I imagine the red states would be willing to suffer a massive downsizing of their food production, if only to "own the libs".
Old 05-05-20, 05:38 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

Originally Posted by brayzie View Post
Which doesn’t change the fact that they can’t afford to live in California.


Yeah, I know of that situation too. But most of the people I know are continuing to rent in their new locations. They’re not buying houses or property.




Id like to know the background on this. These people have savings and resources to buy property in Idaho, but can’t afford to live in California at all? The people I do know that end up moving out of state to buy a home is because they specifically want to be homeowners, not because they can’t afford an apartment here. That’s different from people who can’t even afford a 1 bedroom apartment or need to live pay check to pay check in order to do it.

Long article but stemmed from a Mayoral race and other variables:

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...klash-in-boise

The funny part is that I almost moved to Idaho a few years ago. I'm glad I didn't.
Old 05-05-20, 05:43 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

Originally Posted by JackoOnHisBacko View Post
The biggest problem I see with a breakup for the blue states is that most of the food is grown/raised in the red states. I'm sure the first thing they would do would be to ban exports of food to the blue states. This would, of course, really hurt the economies of both red & blue states, but I imagine the red states would be willing to suffer a massive downsizing of their food production, if only to "own the libs".
Everyone always overlooks California’s agriculture. We grow and ranch a shit load of everything.

Only Florida grows more oranges.
Only Texas grows more cotton.
https://www.netstate.com/economy/ca_economy.htm

And as that article reminded me. We mine all the boron. All of it. For the whole USA. All the boron. You need boron for just about literally everything.

Last edited by Mabuse; 05-05-20 at 05:50 PM.
Old 05-05-20, 05:49 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
An interesting thread. Along the same lines as Texas, I hope California, Oregon, and Washington, become their own country. They would be entirely responsible for their own decisions, rather than having the Fed (meaning the other states) pay for it all.
Washington state gives the federal government $184 per resident. California receives $12 per resident, making it technically a taker, but nowhere near top takers like Mississippi, West Virginia, or Alabama, each of which gets in excess of $6,000 per resident from the federal government. Oregon receives $2,477 per resident, putting at #24 on the list of takers, and is the one state where you might have something approaching a point.
Old 05-05-20, 05:55 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

We already fought a war over whether the union can break up, and concluded it cannot. It would take another war to allow the union to breakup, and I don't think it will come to that.

I do think we are going to see a significant uptick in politically motivated violence targeting prominent people (elected and other officials, high-profile pundits). There's too many aggrieved nuts out there. I can only hope none are successful.
Old 05-05-20, 05:59 PM
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Re: Will the Union survive Trump?

Jack, CA can pivot from growing Almonds/Pistachios to growing Oranges, Tomatoes, Cucumbers, Zucchini, etc....CA did not used to be known for Almonds and Pistachios and I used to see a wider variety of crops being grown as I drove through the Central Valley on my trips down to and up from Los Angeles. The Central Valley is known as CAs (and arguably the country's) breadbasket (or at least I grew up in the San Fernando Valley hearing that the Central Valley was the bread basket of CA). Even with the drought and focusing on crops less likely to make their way in-between a hamburger bun (lettuce, tomatoes, onions) and more likely to end up in trail mix it is amazing how much money CA currently generates growing food.

Also, I did not realize that many places in the South are categorized as food deserts (meaning no fresh food source in easy driving distance for many communities, a term I literally just learned about as I was reading about the impact of the shutdown on many places in the U.S.) so fewer places that are not CA could pick up the slack than one might imagine. Also, places like KS would need to pivot to growing a wider variety of crops as they and other states have gone all-in on things like wheat, corn, or soy beans. Places like KS would need to put in some serious time and labor to prep the soil for a different crop cycle, and of course it would take time for these new crops to produce a bountiful harvest. Then there is the issue of flooding and damage to crops from things like tornadoes and frost being more likely than they are for fields in CA.

One final point, making up for the loss from CA crops would mean that a whole lot of folks in Red States would have to accept jobs as field workers so food does not go to waste, or quickly get over their fear of brown people (African American, Mexicans, etc., basically anyone not lily white) and open up our borders again so the migrant workers can do the back breaking work most of us Americans would not do unless a gun is literally pointed at our heads.

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