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COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Old 07-21-21, 06:09 PM
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by DJariya View Post
You can’t teach stupid. His insurance company should double or triple his premiums since he’s playing with fire. He’ll probably not make it for another round in the hospital.

https://twitter.com/cbsnews/status/1...483904000?s=21
You know, I've cynically gone this way also. You should pay more in insurance if you're not going to get vaccines to prevent you going to the hospital and should be on the hook for majority of bill even if insured but consciously refuse to get the vaccine. Just like if you keep getting in car accidents/speed, you're going to pay more insurance.
My children's school had a great motto in which the "O" stood for own your actions. If the grade schoolers can get it, so should these "adults." I respect your right to choose but there should be consequences.
Old 07-21-21, 06:19 PM
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Decker View Post
I think it's safe to put that "you only need 25-30% to get herd immunity" argument to bed. We have to be above 70% between vaccine and previously infected now and we are seeing a ramp-up of illness.
Remember that the virus has mutated. If 100 persons on average spread the disease to 200 other people (without any vaccines), you need just an effective vaccination rate of more than 50%. But if the virus then mutates into a Delta variant and 100 persons spread it to 1000 other people on average (without vaccines), you need an effective vaccination rate of 90%.

I'm sure I have never heard someone say that 25% was enough though. That corresponds with 100 persons on average spreading it to only 133 other persons. I think no one has calculated the R(0) value as low as that (1.3333).
Old 07-21-21, 06:26 PM
  #13628  
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by ftsoh View Post
Agree. If car insurance can raise premium after a wreck or speeding ticket. Medical insurance should do the same to penalize stupid decisions.
The key word there is DECISIONS.

My under 30 healthy sister-in-law cannot get life insurance due to a heart condition her father has. Not her, her father. It wasn’t anything he even did, just his body formed that way.

Yet, people can choose to be irresponsible and not protect themselves, so I have to kick in on the cost.

Yes, you can make the case it is a slippery slope, but in this case it is not a lifestyle decision (which is what many of the slippery slope arguments hinge on). It literally is a vaccination.
Old 07-21-21, 06:42 PM
  #13629  
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by ben12 View Post
Welcome to biology! They've developed all kinds of tools to deal with the fact that it's often impossible to pin down specific mechanisms or account for every possibility, because life is messy. The kind of precision you seem to require just isn't necessary for understanding.
What I have continually brought up is NOT biology. It is scientific research. I didn’t ask anybody to explain how the virus replicates or even the specific interactions of antibodies with the virus. I asked for quantitative research, not hand waving as if you are Obi-Wan Kenobi.

Provide specific research (like the macaque challenge study) not just some vague end result that makes it look good. Give us data on the viral load in individuals who have been vaccinated and are testing positive; do tests to see how much virus they are shedding. Do ACTUAL contact tracing (rather than “there is limited evidence of spread in this magical building”). I said it early on ABSENCE OF DATA IS NOT EVIDENCE WHEN YOU DIDN’T LOOK.

For example, if you are going to say it prevents spread, you damn well better have data that shows that vaccinated individuals were exposed (yes, challenge studies are not feasible in the US, but there are plenty of ways you can conduct the study) and did not contract the virus — not that they contracted it but have no symptoms, that is something different. Not that they just don’t have the virus now (you need to show they were exposed). Looking at rates in healthcare workers who are exposed would be a way to do this research.

Thats not biology. That’s not magic. That’s not too much to ask.

And go get your damn shot if you haven’t!
Old 07-21-21, 07:51 PM
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Abob Teff View Post
What I have continually brought up is NOT biology. It is scientific research. I didn’t ask anybody to explain how the virus replicates or even the specific interactions of antibodies with the virus. I asked for quantitative research, not hand waving as if you are Obi-Wan Kenobi.

Provide specific research (like the macaque challenge study) not just some vague end result that makes it look good. Give us data on the viral load in individuals who have been vaccinated and are testing positive; do tests to see how much virus they are shedding. Do ACTUAL contact tracing (rather than “there is limited evidence of spread in this magical building”). I said it early on ABSENCE OF DATA IS NOT EVIDENCE WHEN YOU DIDN’T LOOK.

For example, if you are going to say it prevents spread, you damn well better have data that shows that vaccinated individuals were exposed (yes, challenge studies are not feasible in the US, but there are plenty of ways you can conduct the study) and did not contract the virus — not that they contracted it but have no symptoms, that is something different. Not that they just don’t have the virus now (you need to show they were exposed). Looking at rates in healthcare workers who are exposed would be a way to do this research.

Thats not biology. That’s not magic. That’s not too much to ask.

And go get your damn shot if you haven’t!
A lot of times, it is too much to ask. In biology, sometimes the kind of data your poo-pooing IS the hardcore quantitative research because that's all that's possible to do (or possible to do with the available time/funding).

I also think your standards are too high in many of your examples. Science is built on inference. We don't need to see the butler plunging a knife into the victim's chest to know he's the murderer if we have a bunch of other evidence that all points in that direction. The kind of precision you're after is more important for trying to, say, develop next level treatments or take the current research to the next stage.
Old 07-21-21, 08:03 PM
  #13631  
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Abob Teff View Post
What I have continually brought up is NOT biology. It is scientific research. I didn’t ask anybody to explain how the virus replicates or even the specific interactions of antibodies with the virus. I asked for quantitative research, not hand waving as if you are Obi-Wan Kenobi.

Provide specific research (like the macaque challenge study) not just some vague end result that makes it look good. Give us data on the viral load in individuals who have been vaccinated and are testing positive; do tests to see how much virus they are shedding. Do ACTUAL contact tracing (rather than “there is limited evidence of spread in this magical building”). I said it early on ABSENCE OF DATA IS NOT EVIDENCE WHEN YOU DIDN’T LOOK.

For example, if you are going to say it prevents spread, you damn well better have data that shows that vaccinated individuals were exposed (yes, challenge studies are not feasible in the US, but there are plenty of ways you can conduct the study) and did not contract the virus — not that they contracted it but have no symptoms, that is something different. Not that they just don’t have the virus now (you need to show they were exposed). Looking at rates in healthcare workers who are exposed would be a way to do this research.

Thats not biology. That’s not magic. That’s not too much to ask.

And go get your damn shot if you haven’t!
Jesus christ. I won't post what I had typed up, especially after reading Ben's post, but merely say, do your own review of the research. Start with tomorrows NEJM.
Old 07-21-21, 08:25 PM
  #13632  
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

This all sounds extremely silly, and in some way, it is... but this is actually exactly what they're doing on FB to get around bans.

It sounds straight out of The Onion, but Ben Collins knows his shit, has been working the disinfo/misinfo/conspiracy/Qanon beat for years, and is more trustworthy on this topic than (nearly) anyone else.



WTF.
Old 07-21-21, 09:22 PM
  #13633  
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

From our local health system, where we are hitting a record case load.



The code word people seem like they're big fans of Careless Whisper.

Last edited by RichC2; 07-21-21 at 09:28 PM.
Old 07-21-21, 10:50 PM
  #13634  
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Pharoh View Post
Jesus christ. I won't post what I had typed up, especially after reading Ben's post, but merely say, do your own review of the research. Start with tomorrows NEJM.
Deleting my comments lest they seem like a personal attack and get me in trouble. Whatever, man. I'll just leave it at that.
Old 07-22-21, 11:47 AM
  #13635  
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Pretty much everyone in my life except my 2 young sons is vaccinated, so I’d been trying to take a break from COVID news. Our local school system just announced they won’t be requiring masks, so I decided to get caught up and fucking hell are we a depressing society. I guess one selfish comfort I have is that we live in one of the few counties in Indiana that is very pro-vaccination and we’re at 70%, so I’m not as worried as I would otherwise be about my kids catching it at school.

Originally Posted by Decker View Post
I think it's safe to put that "you only need 25-30% to get herd immunity" argument to bed. We have to be above 70% between vaccine and previously infected now and we are seeing a ramp-up of illness.
I don’t think anyone serious was ever claiming 25%-30%, but regarding herd immunity in general, I think we have to take into account that there are probably communities that have over 80% of people who are either vaccinated or have had the virus, along with places well below half that.

Originally Posted by Psi View Post
A look back at how the US did over the July 4 holiday since it's been more than 2 weeks. There was a slight uptick in infection cases but not in death, but if we zoom in, the case increase started in late June, so I think that was due to Delta more than the holiday. That was when Delta was less than 50% in the US and now it's more. We will see more of this in August but I hope we can continue to keep deaths low like the UK.


From worldometer:


I guess we’ll see soon enough. We’ve more than tripled our 7-day average in three weeks, so if deaths follow the old pattern, we’ll see those triple by mid-August. I would guess a relatively small number of new cases are breakthrough cases of vaccinated people, but younger age groups are probably a higher percentage than in previous upticks, which may help keep deaths down.
Old 07-22-21, 11:59 AM
  #13636  
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by maxfisher View Post

I don’t think anyone serious was ever claiming 25%-30%, but regarding herd immunity in general, I think we have to take into account that there are probably communities that have over 80% of people who are either vaccinated or have had the virus, along with places well below half that.
Oh there have been discussions :
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Even the NY Times may be acknowledging the possibility that the herd immunity threshold is lower than what was guesstimated back in March when very little date was available. Well it's not March anymore, and there is a lot more data out there (understatement) to get more accurate estimates, and all of them are coming well under the 60 to 80 percent figure that is routinely spouted by the mainstream as if it were fact.

What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/h...-immunity.html
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
"

Herd Immunity May Be Slowing Spread in U.S., As Study Finds 40 Percent Community Infection Provides Protection


New article on the effects of herd immunity is having on reducing cases in hot spots. It's a combination of both factors, social distancing and partial population immunity. When the later builds up, Rt fall below 1 and cases fall, usually quite rapidly.



https://www.newsweek.com/herd-immuni...rus-us-1525089
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Old 07-22-21, 12:56 PM
  #13637  
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by maxfisher View Post
I guess we’ll see soon enough. We’ve more than tripled our 7-day average in three weeks, so if deaths follow the old pattern, we’ll see those triple by mid-August.
I think it will be later, maybe September or October, and here is my thinking: The mid-August deaths are already "baked in." Last year deaths were about 2% of cases, and that number should be lower this year thanks to vaccination. Fortunately delta doesn't seem to kill more aggressively than alpha (although it spreads faster).

Given that the case increase in early July was small, 2% of that is even smaller. Once we factor in the benefit of vaccination, we should not see many more deaths from infection initiated in early July. But I agree that the trend is bad and getting worse.
Old 07-22-21, 01:27 PM
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Here's that sick unvaccinated moron from Louisiana who claims if he gets sick again, he'd rather go to the hospital again.



I just want to punch this guy.
Old 07-22-21, 01:36 PM
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

I was talking to an associate of mine at the hospital yesterday. He's a hospitalist, taking care of in-patients. He looked wiped out. I asked him what was up. He says the hospital is full again, full of Covid cases. He told me about a young, strong 19 year old male he has who has, in his words, lungs full of pus. He shook his head.
I asked him are any of these patients vaccinated. Immediately he said "Nope, none of them", then he stopped and said "No, there was one guy who go the one shot J&J. He got pretty sick and got admitted but he's fine now. The rest are all non-vaccinated. We have an epidemic of unvaccinated people and I just don't get it". I told him I didn't either and I guess it's a really divided country. He said he moved here 40 years ago and he's never seen anything like this.
Old 07-22-21, 01:41 PM
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

and those people probably think it's just the flu or pneumonia and they can get over it.

I know all the COVID deniers and anti-vaxxers think all these accounts in the news are just made up or overblown to scare them.
Old 07-22-21, 01:56 PM
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

We should just start wrangling up the unvaccinated and have COVID parties; like our parents used to do with us kids for Chicken Pox in the 80's.
Old 07-22-21, 02:02 PM
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

I wonder how many yokels would get the shot if the delivery method was a tranquilizer gun. Let them come in pairs or teams, they each get a gun and a helmet and then they hunt each other until everyone involved is vaccinated. We could call it The (Probably) Less-Dangerous-Than-COVID Game.
Old 07-22-21, 04:19 PM
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Michigan politicians stealing money from those who actually needed it?

Old 07-22-21, 06:24 PM
  #13644  
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Pharoh View Post
While it doesn't appear the vaccines are effective against transmission, they seem to be doing their job when it comes to mitigating the effects of the virus.


It needs to be pointed out that this is incorrect.

The vaccines, even the J&J as we are learning more, are highly effective at preventing infection and effective at stopping transmission.
I did intend to include the word "fully" or "completely" before "effective." I tend to type really fast and sometimes and sometimes get ahead of myself and skip over words.

I do, however, think we've heard about enough breakthrough infections and transmissions to and from vaccinated individuals to be concerned about transmission.

And this is likely going to take a while to study since we probably won't know much about how many asymptomatic breakthrough infections are happening, and how they're happening.

As such, I think it would probably be a good idea for people like healthcare workers, hairdressers, manicurists, and their clients -- people who work in close contact with the public for more than a few minutes, to wear masks even if they're vaccinated.

I, myself, am fully vaccinated, but I still don't feel comfortable returning to normal. I'll sit in an uncrowded restaurant during off-hours, but I still wouldn't want to go to a crowded bar or concert, or wait in a long line.
Old 07-22-21, 10:06 PM
  #13645  
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Some woman in Louisiana was just on CBS news tonight, she said her son died from COVID because he didn't believe in the vaccine. The reporter asked where did he do his research. and guess what it was Google. He was only 46.

I saw on Anderson Cooper's show a report about some Arkansas nurse who has to deal with death threats, online abuse from strangers who think she's a liar and a killer. And that she and other doctors are making up the numbers to scare people or purposing lying on the death reports saying the deaths were COVID.

Shit like this makes my blood pressure rise.

Old 07-22-21, 10:44 PM
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by DJariya View Post
Some woman in Louisiana was just on CBS news tonight,
We are a big country and can find people with almost every viewpoint, but the problem is that we have entire states with 65% and counties with 80% NOT fully vaccinated. Where the vaccinated are a small minority, months after vaccines became widely available. What do we say to that?
Old 07-23-21, 07:30 AM
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Josh-da-man View Post
I did intend to include the word "fully" or "completely" before "effective." I tend to type really fast and sometimes and sometimes get ahead of myself and skip over words.

I do, however, think we've heard about enough breakthrough infections and transmissions to and from vaccinated individuals to be concerned about transmission.

And this is likely going to take a while to study since we probably won't know much about how many asymptomatic breakthrough infections are happening, and how they're happening.

As such, I think it would probably be a good idea for people like healthcare workers, hairdressers, manicurists, and their clients -- people who work in close contact with the public for more than a few minutes, to wear masks even if they're vaccinated.

I, myself, am fully vaccinated, but I still don't feel comfortable returning to normal. I'll sit in an uncrowded restaurant during off-hours, but I still wouldn't want to go to a crowded bar or concert, or wait in a long line.

Understood and in agreement on your follow up points.

Old 07-23-21, 07:40 AM
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Here is the NEJM study referenced earlier:

Prevention and Attenuation of Covid-19 with the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 Vaccines

List of authors.
  • Mark G. Thompson, Ph.D.,
  • Jefferey L. Burgess, M.D., M.P.H.,
  • Allison L. Naleway, Ph.D.,
  • Harmony Tyner, M.D., M.P.H.,
  • Sarang K. Yoon, D.O.,
  • Jennifer Meece, Ph.D.,
  • Lauren E.W. Olsho, Ph.D.,
  • Alberto J. Caban-Martinez, D.O., Ph.D., M.P.H., C.P.H.,
  • Ashley L. Fowlkes, Sc.D., M.P.H.,
  • Karen Lutrick, Ph.D.,
  • Holly C. Groom, M.P.H.,
  • Kayan Dunnigan, M.P.H.,

BACKGROUND

Information is limited regarding the effectiveness of the two-dose messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) in preventing infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and in attenuating coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) when administered in real-world conditions.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study involving 3975 health care personnel, first responders, and other essential and frontline workers. From December 14, 2020, to April 10, 2021, the participants completed weekly SARS-CoV-2 testing by providing mid-turbinate nasal swabs for qualitative and quantitative reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) analysis. The formula for calculating vaccine effectiveness was 100%×(1−hazard ratio for SARS-CoV-2 infection in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated participants), with adjustments for the propensity to be vaccinated, study site, occupation, and local viral circulation.

RESULTS

SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 204 participants (5%), of whom 5 were fully vaccinated (≥14 days after dose 2), 11 partially vaccinated (≥14 days after dose 1 and <14 days after dose 2), and 156 unvaccinated; the 32 participants with indeterminate vaccination status (<14 days after dose 1) were excluded. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 91% (95% confidence interval [CI], 76 to 97) with full vaccination and 81% (95% CI, 64 to 90) with partial vaccination. Among participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection, the mean viral RNA load was 40% lower (95% CI, 16 to 57) in partially or fully vaccinated participants than in unvaccinated participants. In addition, the risk of febrile symptoms was 58% lower (relative risk, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.18 to 0.98) and the duration of illness was shorter, with 2.3 fewer days spent sick in bed (95% CI, 0.8 to 3.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Authorized mRNA vaccines were highly effective among working-age adults in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection when administered in real-world conditions, and the vaccines attenuated the viral RNA load, risk of febrile symptoms, and duration of illness among those who had breakthrough infection despite vaccination. (Funded by the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.)
...

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...=featured_home
Old 07-23-21, 08:09 AM
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Another worthwhile article, from Science, especially speaking to ben12's point on messiness. Also recalls Decker's self testing for antibodies after first dose. Selected bolding mine.

Can immune responses alone reveal which COVID-19 vaccines work best?

By Jon CohenJul. 1, 2021 , 2:30 PM


Other than running a placebo-controlled, clinical trial lasting many months and involving tens of thousands of people, is there any way to be sure a COVID-19 vaccine will work? Many researchers contend that the success of several vaccines now widely in use offers a shortcut: Simply gauge a vaccine’s ability to elicit so-called neutralizing antibodies, which bind to the virus and prevent it from entering cells. But several recent studies, the latest published as a preprint on 24 June, point to other “correlates of protection”: “binding” antibodies—which latch on to the virus but don’t block entry—and another set of immune warriors called T cells.

Vaccine decisions may soon depend on a better understanding of these supporting actors. Several companies are developing updates of their COVID-19 vaccines tailored to protect against new viral variants, and they hope regulatory agencies won’t require that they show efficacy in big clinical trials, which are not only time-consuming and expensive, but also increasingly ethically fraught because some of the participants receive a placebo even though proven vaccines are now available.

With an established correlate of protection, trials can give an updated vaccine to a much smaller group of participants and then check whether they produce the telltale immune responses. (That’s how the annual updates of flu vaccines are approved.) Health officials may also turn to correlates when they consider prioritizing existing COVID-19 vaccines, authorizing new “mix and match” combinations, or even when making decisions about entirely new vaccines

But finding robust correlates has been challenging. During the megatrials that led to the authorization of COVID-19 vaccines, investigators monitored antibody responses and tried to correlate them with their odds of participants getting sick. Different trials, however, used different antibody assays and different definitions of mild COVID-19, the main endpoint in the trials. “It’s anarchy because it’s always been anarchy,” says John Moore, an immunologist at Weill Cornell Medicine. “You’re dealing with different academic labs and different companies, and companies tend not to talk to each other.” Many trials also lacked the statistical power to measure protection from hospitalization and death, arguably a COVID-19 vaccine’s most important task. And few trials even looked carefully at T cells, which are far more cumbersome to measure.


Still, two studies—first published as preprints in March here and here—confirmed the prediction by Moore and many other scientists that neutralizing antibodies (“neuts”) play a key role. To “normalize” the different assays used in the trials, they compared levels of antibody elicited by each vaccine with antibodies found in people who naturally became infected in the trial’s placebo group. In both analyses, the vaccines that triggered higher levels of neuts than the ones typically seen in recovered people offered the best protection—strong evidence of a correlation, Moore says.

“That’s a great relief to me,” says Penny Moore, a virologist at the National Health Laboratory Service in South Africa, who helped measure protective immune responses in different vaccine trials and was “really puzzled” by the results. But she and others suspected neuts are far from the whole story. “I just cannot work out for the life of me how much [other immune responses] are contributing and where they’re contributing,” she says.

During the efficacy trials of the messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines made by the Pfizer-BioNTech collaboration and Moderna, for example, the first shot of both vaccines triggered barely measurable levels of neutralizing antibodies, but still offered substantial protection. “It suggests there’s more than neutralizing antibodies going on here,” says David Montefiori, an immunologist at Duke University who runs a lab that measures neuts for a handful of COVID-19 vaccine trials sponsored by the U.S. government. Neuts skyrocketed only after the second mRNA shot, when protection rose to more than 90%.

T cells, which coordinate the B cells that produce antibodies but also clear infected cells when neuts falter, appear to bolster the defense. In a study published in February that included 12 patients whose COVID-19 ranged from mild to fatal, a team led by immunologist Antonio Bertoletti of the Duke–National University of Singapore Medical School reported that patients who early on had the highest levels of immune system messengers that kick T cells into action—an indirect, but relatively simple, way to measure their presence—had milder disease because they cleared the infection faster.

Penny Moore and colleagues also found support for a role for T cells. In an 11 June preprint, they reported that 96% of participants in an efficacy trial of the COVID-19 vaccine produced by Johnson & Johnson (J&J) made antibodies that neutralized a viral strain from early in the pandemic but only 19% had antibodies that neutralized the Beta variant, which is widespread in South Africa and infamous for dodging neuts. Yet despite the variant, the vaccine remained protective against moderate and severe COVID-19. “I think it’s entirely plausible … that T cells are doing something really useful here,” Penny Moore says. A monkey study with this vaccine, published in Nature last year, also showed that T cells contributed substantially to control of the virus if neut levels weren’t high enough to do the job.



Binding antibodies may also be more important than researchers assumed. The 24 June preprint, by researchers from the University of Oxford, found that high levels of neuts correlated with the 80% protection achieved 28 days after participants in the United Kingdom received two shots of the vaccine the team developed with AstraZeneca. But digging more deeply into the data revealed that binding antibodies were as good as a correlate—if not better.

It’s not clear exactly why, because binding antibodies don’t directly block the infection process. One possibility is that they make the virus more susceptible to being gobbled up by macrophages or other cells that ingest intruders. This mechanism, called phagocytosis, protected children from severe COVID-19, immunologist Galit Alter of the Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT and Harvard reported in Nature Medicine in March. Then again, it may be that binding antibodies are produced in lockstep with neuts, but at higher levels, and are simply a surrogate marker.

Work by virologist Shane Crotty and Alessandro Sette of the La Jolla Institute for Immunology has shown that people handle SARS-CoV-2 most effectively if they have T cells and antibodies working in sync, as they showed in a study of the immune reactions of 24 COVID-19 patients whose disease ranged from mild to fatal. “The immune system figures out how to use all the weapons at its disposal,” Crotty says.



South Africa, which has fewer than 1% of its population fully vaccinated amid an exploding epidemic, has shown the potential pitfalls of overemphasizing neuts. In February, the country abandoned the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine after it had a disappointing 22% efficacy against mild disease in a large trial. Test tube analyses seemed to support the decision: Antibodies triggered by the vaccine had far less neutralizing power against the Beta variant, which then accounted for nearly all infections. But Penny Moore’s study of the J&J vaccine has subsequently shown that disappointing levels of neutralizing antibodies don’t keep a vaccine from providing good protection against severe disease. “Our obsession with neuts may mean that we missed an opportunity here for AstraZeneca,” she says.

Other scientists counter that it makes sense to use neuts as a gauge to rank the relative powers of different vaccines, but acknowledge that this will require standardized assays. Chinese researchers in the 23 June issue of Vaccine published national standards for SARS-CoV-2 neutralization assays. “This has not been the most important priority, but it’s going to become one if we move away from phase 3 trials,” John Moore says.



With the picture still muddy, regulators need to decide whether correlates of protection should offer vaccinemakers a shortcut to bringing improved products to market. Pfizer and Moderna are developing next generation candidates designed to create high levels of neutralizing antibodies against the Beta variant, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has signaled that it will accept this correlate of protection for approval decisions. “Even though we might not get the perfect surrogate—it might mediate partial protection—that could be good enough,” says Peter Gilbert, a biostatistician who designs clinical trials at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. “We don’t need perfection here.”

But Alter worries regulators relying on neuts might approve unnecessary booster shots simply because they outdo existing shots on that measure. “If [regulators] don’t adapt, we’re going to end up overboosting, and we’re going to be making the drug companies really happy,” she says.

It’s also unclear whether a convincing correlate from a vaccine that uses, say, mRNA, applies to one that uses a different platform like a viral vector. “We’re hoping to have more immune correlate of protection information before updates on that,” says Peter Marks, who heads FDA’s vaccine division.

With more than a dozen vaccines now in use, that information may arrive soon, Sette says. Although companies typically control the data from clinical trials, academic labs can now compare recipients of different vaccines, he says. “In the next few months, all the different labs will be generating analyses of what different vaccines do and a large amount of data will be generated in academic labs,” Sette says. “There’s going to be a fundamental wealth of information.”
Old 07-23-21, 10:32 AM
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Re: COVID-19 POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by DJariya View Post
Some woman in Louisiana was just on CBS news tonight, she said her son died from COVID because he didn't believe in the vaccine. The reporter asked where did he do his research. and guess what it was Google. He was only 46.

I saw on Anderson Cooper's show a report about some Arkansas nurse who has to deal with death threats, online abuse from strangers who think she's a liar and a killer. And that she and other doctors are making up the numbers to scare people or purposing lying on the death reports saying the deaths were COVID.

Shit like this makes my blood pressure rise.
This frustrates the hell out of me too. The anti vaxxers always point to a You Tube video or a Facebook meme as their 'research' There was an article in yesterday's Washington Post where a health care worker discussed the sources with anti vaxxers & this was their overwhelming response. But when she asked if any had discussed the risks with their doctor, she got blank stares.

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