Go Back  DVD Talk Forum > General Discussions > Other Talk > Religion, Politics and World Events
Reload this Page >

Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Religion, Politics and World Events They make great dinner conversation, don't you think? plus Political Film

Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Old 04-06-18, 08:18 PM
  #1  
DVD Talk Hero
Thread Starter
 
jfoobar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Posts: 37,548
Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Surprisingly, not garbage science but what certainly appears to be a well-considered empirical study:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3145287

Homicides increased dramatically in Chicago in 2016. In 2015, 480 Chicago residents were killed. The next year, 754 were killed–274 more homicide victims, tragically producing an extraordinary 58% increase in a single year. This article attempts to unravel what happened.

This article provides empirical evidence that the reduction in stop and frisks by the Chicago Police Department beginning around December 2015 was responsible for the homicide spike that started immediately thereafter. The sharp decline in the number of stop and frisks is a strong candidate for the causal factor, particularly since the timing of the homicide spike so perfectly coincides with the spike. Regression analysis of the homicide spike and related shooting crimes identifies the stop and frisk variable as the likely cause. The results are highly statistically significant and robust over a large number of alternative specifications. And a qualitative review for possible “omitted variables” in the regression equations fails to identify any other plausible candidates that fit the data as well as the decline in stop and frisks.

Our regression equations permit quantification of the costs of the decline in stop and frisks. Because of fewer stop and frisks in 2016, it appears that (conservatively calculating) approximately 239 additional victims were killed and 1129 additional shootings occurred in that year alone. And these tremendous costs are not evenly distributed, but rather are concentrated among Chicago’s African-American and Hispanic communities.

The most likely explanation for the fall in stop and frisks that appears to have triggered the homicide spike is a consent decree entered into by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) with the Chicago Police Department (CPD). Accordingly, modifications to that consent decree may be appropriate.

More broadly, these findings shed important light on the on-going national debate about stop and frisk policies. The fact that America’s “Second City” suffered so badly from a decline in stop and frisks suggests that the arguably contrary experience in New York City may be an anomaly. The costs of crime — and particularly gun crimes — are too significant to avoid considering every possible measure for reducing the toll. The evidence gathered here suggests that stop and frisk policies may be truly lifesaving measures that have to be considered as part of any effective law enforcement response to gun violence.
Obviously a very controversial finding. Here is a post where they respond to some of the criticisms:

http://reason.com/volokh/2018/03/28/...-spike-further
jfoobar is offline  
Old 04-06-18, 08:26 PM
  #2  
DVD Talk Hero
Thread Starter
 
jfoobar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Posts: 37,548
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Requested mod move to politics. Wasn't paying attention.
jfoobar is offline  
Old 04-06-18, 08:48 PM
  #3  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
JTH182's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 5,082
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

So what reason do they give for it being down 25% so far this year?
JTH182 is offline  
Old 04-06-18, 09:28 PM
  #4  
Psi
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
 
Psi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Texas
Posts: 8,828
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by jfoobar View Post
Surprisingly, not garbage science but what certainly appears to be a well-considered empirical study:

Obviously a very controversial finding. Here is a post where they respond to some of the criticisms:
Do you know the effect in NYC when they did a similar thing?
Psi is offline  
Old 04-06-18, 09:29 PM
  #5  
Psi
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
 
Psi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Texas
Posts: 8,828
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by JTH182 View Post
So what reason do they give for it being down 25% so far this year?
JasonF moved away
Psi is offline  
Old 04-06-18, 09:32 PM
  #6  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Madison, WI ("77 square miles surrounded by reality")
Posts: 29,960
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by Psi View Post
JasonF moved away
I don't think that had any effect.

Plenty of people left to say "Fuck you."
movielib is offline  
Old 04-06-18, 09:38 PM
  #7  
Senior Member
 
smg669's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 887
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

That paper is horribly written. My teenage daughter can write better than that. How does a guy who can barely write his way out of a damp paper bag get to be the President of the Stanford Law Review?
smg669 is offline  
Old 04-06-18, 09:39 PM
  #8  
DVD Talk Legend
 
mspmms's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Indianapolis,IN
Posts: 12,446
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by Psi View Post
JasonF moved away
Originally Posted by movielib View Post
I don't think that had any effect.

Plenty of people left to say "Fuck you."


Fantastic.
mspmms is offline  
Old 04-07-18, 06:57 AM
  #9  
DVD Talk Special Edition
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Berkeley, CA
Posts: 1,109
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by Psi View Post
Do you know the effect in NYC when they did a similar thing?
Yep, crime continued to decline.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/30/n...and-frisk.html

Smarter policing has resulted in greater efficiency while still keeping crime down. So there goes that narrative.
JasonX is online now  
Old 04-07-18, 08:32 AM
  #10  
Banned
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 21,582
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by JasonX View Post
Yep, crime continued to decline.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/30/n...and-frisk.html

Smarter policing has resulted in greater efficiency while still keeping crime down. So there goes that narrative.
Where does your linked article say that crime has gone down?
creekdipper is offline  
Old 04-07-18, 10:26 AM
  #11  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 556
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by smg669 View Post
That paper is horribly written. My teenage daughter can write better than that. How does a guy who can barely write his way out of a damp paper bag get to be the President of the Stanford Law Review?
I haven't read the whole article, but based on the quoted section alone, I agree. If that's what passes for a well-considered study, scholarship is in worse shape than I thought.
GhostLee is offline  
Old 04-07-18, 10:35 AM
  #12  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Rosemount, MN
Posts: 29,792
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by creekdipper View Post
Where does your linked article say that crime has gone down?
It shows that overall stops declined in the three years the monitor studied: to 22,563 in 2015, from 191,851 in 2013, a period in which violent crime in New York continued its decline
Draven is offline  
Old 04-07-18, 10:37 AM
  #13  
DVD Talk Special Edition
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Berkeley, CA
Posts: 1,109
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by creekdipper View Post
Where does your linked article say that crime has gone down?
On one hand, the report offers the most comprehensive review of recent citywide street stop activity. It shows that overall stops declined in the three years the monitor studied: to 22,563 in 2015, from 191,851 in 2013, a period in which violent crime in New York continued its decline.
JasonX is online now  
Old 04-07-18, 10:39 AM
  #14  
Political Exile
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 4,044
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

There were other factors occurring at the same time as the reduction of stop and frisk, namely the criminal investigation of the shooting of Laquan McDonald, along with several other blacks that were shot. Those investigations caused the reduction of stop and frisk which was considered racist when officers would approach a group of blacks, inevitably one or more would run resulting in potential beating or sometimes they would get shot. The working part of stop and frisk and police presence was that criminals would not carry their guns on them. With this risk removed, gang bangers felt more brazened to carry and ultimately use their weapons.

Regarding the recent reductions, the worst neighborhoods were upgraded with video surveillance and Trump provided a ton of resources to Chicago to reduce the backlog of investigating gun crimes. We will see how it holds up once the weather heats up.
PerryD is online now  
Old 04-07-18, 11:57 AM
  #15  
DVD Talk Hero
 
JasonF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 39,033
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by Psi View Post
JasonF moved away
I moved away in 2015. I probably caused the spike!
JasonF is offline  
Old 04-07-18, 01:06 PM
  #16  
Banned
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 21,582
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Thanks, Draven. I missed that sentence when looking for an explanation of how decreasing sops led to decreased crimes, when actually stops to frsk increased during the decline. They were just more efficiently aimed at the most likely suspects associated with violent crimes.
creekdipper is offline  
Old 04-07-18, 01:13 PM
  #17  
DVD Talk Hero
Thread Starter
 
jfoobar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Posts: 37,548
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by GhostLee View Post
I haven't read the whole article, but based on the quoted section alone, I agree. If that's what passes for a well-considered study, scholarship is in worse shape than I thought.
Here is what they considered:

Stop and frisks (of course); temperature (since crime tends to spike in warm weather months); 911 calls (as a measure of police-citizen cooperation); homicides in Illinois excluding Chicago (as a measure of trends in Illinois); arrests for property crimes, violent crimes, homicides, gun crimes, shooting crimes, and drug crimes; homicides in St. Louis, Columbus, Louisville, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Gary, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Detroit; and a time trend variable.
What else should they have included to meet your definition of "well-considered"? Even their most vocal critic, Fordham Law professor John Pfaff, has conceded that their conclusion was "wholly plausible".
jfoobar is offline  
Old 04-07-18, 01:14 PM
  #18  
DVD Talk Hero
Thread Starter
 
jfoobar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Posts: 37,548
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by Psi View Post
Do you know the effect in NYC when they did a similar thing?
It is heavily considered in the study and even mentioned in the summary text I quoted.
jfoobar is offline  
Old 04-08-18, 11:40 AM
  #19  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 556
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by jfoobar View Post
What else should they have included to meet your definition of "well-considered"? Even their most vocal critic, Fordham Law professor John Pfaff, has conceded that their conclusion was "wholly plausible".
I'll take back my statement, for now. As I mentioned, it was based on the quoted text. After a second look, I saw that was the abstract, not the actual paper, which corrected the abstract's mistakes. I still haven't read the whole paper, but will come back when I've been able to read it.
GhostLee is offline  
Old 04-08-18, 05:53 PM
  #20  
DVD Talk Legend
 
grundle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 15,894
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferguson_effect

Ferguson effect

The Ferguson effect is the idea that increased scrutiny of police following the 2014 shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri has led to an increased crime rate (or sometimes increased murder rate) in major U.S. cities. The mechanism usually suggested is that police have less vigorous enforcement in situations that might lead to backlash, though other mechanisms are suggested. The term was coined by Doyle Sam Dotson III, the chief of the St. Louis police, to account for an increased murder rate in some U.S. cities following the Ferguson unrest.

The concept has been criticized by some academics and politicians, including former President Barack Obama, as being inaccurate or non-existent.
Spoiler:

Origin

The term was coined by Dotson in a 2014 column in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Dotson said in the column that, after the protests in Ferguson caused by the shooting of Michael Brown that August, his officers had been hesitant to enforce the law due to fears of being charged, and that "the criminal element is feeling empowered" as a result.

The term became popular after Heather Mac Donald used it in a May 29, 2015, Wall Street Journal op-ed. The op-ed stated that the rise in crime rates in some U.S. cities was due to "agitation" against police forces. She further stated that "Unless the demonization of law enforcement ends, the liberating gains in urban safety will be lost," and quoted a number of police officers as saying police morale was at an all-time low. In 2015, Rahm Emanuel, the mayor of Chicago, suggested that nationwide backlash against police brutality had led to officers disengaging, which, in turn, had led to violent crime increasing.

In May 2016, FBI Director James Comey used the term "viral video effect" when commenting on significant increases in homicide rates in many large U.S. cities in the first half of the year. Comey specifically singled out the cities of Chicago (which murders were up 54 percent from 2015 and shootings were up by 70 percent) and Las Vegas. The term was also used by Chuck Rosenberg, director of the DEA.

In October 2016, the Ferguson effect was cited in a case in which a Chicago police officer was beaten for several minutes by a suspect but chose not to draw her service weapon, worried of the media attention that would come if she were to shoot the suspect.

Criticism

Law enforcement and politicians

William Bratton, the then-New York City Police Commissioner, said in 2015 that he had seen no evidence of a "Ferguson effect" in his city. U.S. Attorney General Loretta Lynch testified before Congress on November 17, 2015, that there was "no data" to support claims that the Ferguson effect existed. According to Slate, Ronald L. Davis, a former police chief and the executive director of President Obama’s Task Force on 21st Century Policing, testified at the same hearing that the notion that police would fail to do their jobs because they were scared was "an insult to the profession". President Obama also said in a 2015 speech to the International Association of Chiefs of Police that although gun violence and homicides had spiked in some U.S. cities, "so far at least across the nation, the data shows that we are still enjoying historically low rates of violent crime", and "What we can’t do is cherry-pick data or use anecdotal evidence to drive policy or to feed political agendas." In December 2015, Edward A. Flynn, police chief of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, said that although police were unnerved due to anti-police protests, this was not solely responsible for the increase in violent crime observed in his city recently, because rates of such crimes there started increasing before Michael Brown was shot.

Academia

Some researchers have said that there is little evidence of a crime wave in the United States; for example, law professor Franklin Zimring told NBC News in 2015 that "I don't think there's a trend" in recent nationwide crime rates. Jeffery Ulmer, associate head of the Department of Sociology and Criminology at Penn State University, has said that although the Ferguson effect is possible, he does not consider it likely nationwide. As it is recognized that the FBIs Uniform Crime Reporting, having a 5.6 times increase in homicide and over ten times increase in the robber, in a select number of cities in 2017 particularly, Indianapolis and Baltimore cannot be ignored.

Reports and studies

A June 2015 report on crime in St. Louis by criminologist Richard Rosenfeld, published by the Sentencing Project, found no "credible and comprehensive evidence" that there was any "Ferguson effect" on crime in St. Louis. A June 2016 University of Missouri study by Rosenfeld, published by the National Institute of Justice found that there was an "unprecedented" 16.8% increase in homicides in 56 large cities over the course of 2015, and examined the Ferguson effect as one of three plausible explanations recommended for further research. Rosenfeld stated that "the only explanation that gets the timing right is a version of the Ferguson effect" and that it is his "leading hypothesis".

A November 2015 report by the Brennan Center for Justice found that although killings and overall lawlessness were increasing in some U.S. cities, nationwide crime rates were still decreasing, and predicted that crime rates would decrease by 1.5% from 2014 to 2015.

A 2015 study looked at a possible "Ferguson effect" not on crime, but on police willingness to partner with communities. The study found that officers who felt their agency was fair or were confident of their own authority were more likely to partner with their communities, "regardless of the effects of negative publicity".

A February 2016 University of Colorado Boulder study looked at crime statistics from 81 U.S. cities and found no evidence of a Ferguson effect with respect to overall, violent, or property crime, but did identify an increase in robbery rates after the shooting of Michael Brown (while these rates had been decreasing before this shooting). A March 2016 study by Johns Hopkins University researchers Stephen L. Morgan and Joel Pally found that after Brown was shot, rates of many types of crimes in Baltimore decreased relative to what had been expected, while others (such as robbery and burglary) remained unchanged.

A 2016 study by sociologists Matthew Desmond and Andrew V. Papachristos concluded that black people were afraid to call 911 after a heavily publicized violent beating of an unarmed black man by white police officers. After the police beating of Frank Jude in October 2004 was reported in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, there was a 17% drop in 911 calls, and a 32% increase in homicides. "Our research suggests that this happened not because the police 'got fetal' but because many members of the black community stopped calling 911, their trust in the justice system in tatters," they wrote.

Another 2016 study, led by Edward Maguire of Arizona State University, found no evidence of a "Ferguson effect" with regard to the number of police officers killed in the line of duty in the United States between August 2014 and March 2016.

A December 2016 study found that police deputies who thought their supervisors were more fair were less likely to perceive danger, be unmotivated, or think that civilian attitudes toward the police have become more cynical since the shooting of Michael Brown.

Additionally, a 2017 study led by Bradley Campbell of the University of Louisville, showed no significant increase or decrease in the number of citizens fatally shot by police after the events in Ferguson, MO in August 2014. The study analyzed data from May 2013 to December 2015. Another 2017 study showed that after the shooting of Michael Brown, police traffic stops declined in Missouri, as did hit rates from police searches. The same study found no relationship between changes in police activity and crime rates.

Another 2017 study surveyed officers in a Southeastern United States police department and found that they believed that negative publicity of police negatively effects civilians enough to increase crime rates. The same study found that negative publicity increases officers' perceptions of a police legitimacy crisis and fear of being falsely accused of misconduct.
grundle is offline  
Old 04-08-18, 07:20 PM
  #21  
DVD Talk Hero
Thread Starter
 
jfoobar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Posts: 37,548
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

I don't think there is any doubt of the effect having taken place in Baltimore, although there it would be the "Freddie Gray effect." That said, I think a lot of it is the city police deliberately just not doing their job in certain neighborhoods as a big FU to the residents.
jfoobar is offline  
Old 04-09-18, 02:58 AM
  #22  
Psi
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
 
Psi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Texas
Posts: 8,828
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by jfoobar View Post
It is heavily considered in the study and even mentioned in the summary text I quoted.
Sorry, I read only your post and didn't go to the linked article.
Psi is offline  
Old 04-09-18, 03:00 AM
  #23  
Psi
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
 
Psi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Texas
Posts: 8,828
Re: Chicago's halt to "stop and frisk" led to 239 additional murders (Study)

Originally Posted by JasonF View Post
I moved away in 2015. I probably caused the spike!
Between your moving away and Trump's election causing the drop in crime, I'd rather give you the credit.
Psi is offline  

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Archive Advertising Cookie Policy Privacy Statement Terms of Service

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.