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Special elections, 2017-style

Old 06-20-17, 09:38 AM
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Special elections, 2017-style

Today there are two special elections for the House, GA-06 and SC-05 (Frank Underwood's district, for those of you who watch that dreadful show...)

GA-06, contested between Ossoff (D) and Handel (R) is the most expensive house race in history. It's HHS Secretary Tom Price's old district, and has been comfortably 'red' recently, but in the Age of Trump all that is out the window. Observers are looking at it as a bellwether for the 2018 Congressional elections, because Ossoff has a decent shot of winning. Some reporting:

Georgia special election: 7 things to watch

Georgia’s Special Election Comes to a Nail-Biting Finish

New forecast: only a 55% chance that Jon Ossoff wins Georgia’s House special election

It’s Election Day in the Most Expensive House Race Ever

Democrats March on Georgia

As you can see, my polling aggregator has it as a toss-up:

<img width = 800, src = "http://imgur.com/TveswaX.png"></img>

The South Carolina race should be a win for the Republicans, but Five Thirty Eight had to weigh in anyway.

The Special Election In Frank Underwood’s District Also Matters

And, also,

South Carolina’s 5th District: The Forgotten Special Election
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Old 06-20-17, 09:42 AM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

Handel is reprehensible. Also all those systemwide issues with GA's voting apparatus are not only still there (including easily hackable databases and no paper backups to verify votes are recorded correctly), but officials in GA have fought to not shore up security.

I'm not saying the fix is in, just that if someone wanted to nudge some votes Handel's way, it would be very easy to do.
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Old 06-20-17, 11:53 AM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

Originally Posted by Supermallet View Post
Handel is reprehensible. Also all those systemwide issues with GA's voting apparatus are not only still there (including easily hackable databases and no paper backups to verify votes are recorded correctly), but officials in GA have fought to not shore up security.

I'm not saying the fix is in, just that if someone wanted to nudge some votes Handel's way, it would be very easy to do.
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Old 06-20-17, 03:19 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

Originally Posted by Supermallet View Post
Handel is reprehensible.
And might still win.

Unpresidented!
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Old 06-20-17, 03:29 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

Originally Posted by Supermallet View Post
Handel is reprehensible.
And possibly targeted.
FBI joins investigation at Karen Handel's house
Updated: Jun 16, 2017 - 6:22 PM

ROSWELL, Ga. - Authorities were called to the neighborhood where Karen Handel lives in Roswell after suspicious envelopes were found in mailboxes Thursday afternoon.

Police say Roxburg Drive off Old Alabama Road was shut down for several hours while crews investigated.

At least five homes in the neighborhood received an envelope with a "white powdery substance" in it.

The FBI was called in to take the lead on the investigation.

One woman opened the envelope, found a white powdery substance inside and called police Thursday afternoon. Neighbors said the envelope also contained a threatening letter.
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/nort...ives/533890723
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Old 06-20-17, 08:28 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

Now watch I'll be wrong but the Georgia seat has been R for 40+ years, when push comes to shove I simply don't see it going D.
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Old 06-20-17, 08:29 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

Yeah there was next to no way Handel was going to lose this
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Old 06-20-17, 09:05 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

CNN calls it for Handel

#NeverthelessShePersisted
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Old 06-20-17, 09:11 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

Yeah..


Pretty accurate..
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Old 06-20-17, 09:12 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

So was the fix in for the Georgia race?!?
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Old 06-20-17, 09:21 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

I think Paul_SD will have that ineligible tomorrow
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Old 06-20-17, 09:25 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

So what did it work out to in $$$/vote?

All I know is I want a special election in my district next. Flood a few tens of millions of that highly enlightened Martha's Vineyard old money into my county next please!
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Old 06-20-17, 09:48 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

But does Handel have ties to Russia...has she...called anyone in Russia. Has she read the book...The Hunt For Red October.

I actually thought Ossoff was going to win. I'm really surprised due to Handel's comments recently.

Still, not a smashing victory. It was 53/47, which is very similar to this country being divided on issues.
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Old 06-20-17, 10:09 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

Am I reading this right... Democrats gained nearly 20% ground, compared to the presidential election? Not too bad.

My prediction is that there's going to be a radical change come 2018. Trump is only six months in. He's starting too many fires. I don't see his style lasting. Republicans will never fall below the lifelong R voters and crazy Trump people. Swing voters and occasional voters are going to be repulsed enough come 2018 and 2020.

Which all brings me back to my own conspiracy theory that Trump is a Clinton plant and is acting to destroy extremist Republican/conservative efforts from within. It's one thing to contemplate 'what could have been'. "What if Ross Perot was president?" Trump is happening for real. What we're seeing is what Republicans have wanted for a long time. When this fails, it's going to fail big.
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Old 06-20-17, 10:31 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

Originally Posted by Troy Stiffler View Post
Which all brings me back to my own conspiracy theory that Trump is a Clinton plant and is acting to destroy extremist Republican/conservative efforts from within.
Republicans are going to be so tired of winning under Trump that they'll eventually vote Democrat just to make things interesting again.
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Old 06-20-17, 10:31 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

At this point...I really hope you're right Troy S, that Trump is a Democrat spy. I will fucking kiss that wild hair orange man.

There will be a change in 2018, but it is going to be up to both parties to deliver something sufficient for them to win.

I agree. Trump's style will not last. Most hardcore Republicans prefer old senile men, like McCain or somewhat younger men who are just as "established" in "Republican Values". Like a retard named Jeb Bush.

Trump is no Republican. That's why I voted for him. He's been a Democrat for most of life. However, this time around I think he saw an opportunity, a Republican weakness, and went for it because the issues he wanted to legitimately change...did fit better with Republican politics. The problem he faced...was many Republicans didn't like him stealing the stage--and the power.
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Old 06-20-17, 10:38 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

This is like the 3rd time in about 2 months there's been a congressional race that the media was salivating over as portraying the demise of Trump.. and, as usual, they are wrong. Yet people still fall for the click-bait media stories again.. and again.. and again...
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Old 06-20-17, 10:39 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
Trump is no Republican. That's why I voted for him. He's been a Democrat for most of life. However, this time around I think he saw an opportunity, a Republican weakness, and went for it because the issues he wanted to legitimately change...did fit better with Republican politics. The problem he faced...was many Republicans didn't like him stealing the stage--and the power.
You still think Trump did this because he cares about the country

Originally Posted by General Zod View Post
This is like the 3rd time in about 2 months there's been a congressional race that the media was salivating over as portraying the demise of Trump.. and, as usual, they are wrong. Yet people still fall for the click-bait media stories again.. and again.. and again...
Agreed. This just drives home how nothing will change in 2018.
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Old 06-20-17, 11:40 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

I don't think that the Georgia special election has that much bearing on the 2018 midterms. I expected the Republican to win this special election in red territory. Frankly, the Democrats might be better off having lost because Republicans will be more likely to become complacent. If the Democrat would have won, then alarms would have been going off in the GOP camp.
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Old 06-20-17, 11:59 PM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

Originally Posted by Hadrian7 View Post
So was the fix in for the Georgia race?!?
There's no way to know, since the GA election officials wouldn't allow paper backups.
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Old 06-21-17, 12:06 AM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

Originally Posted by Troy Stiffler View Post
My prediction is that there's going to be a radical change come 2018. Trump is only six months in. He's starting too many fires. I don't see his style lasting. Republicans will never fall below the lifelong R voters and crazy Trump people. Swing voters and occasional voters are going to be repulsed enough come 2018 and 2020.

Which all brings me back to my own conspiracy theory that Trump is a Clinton plant and is acting to destroy extremist Republican/conservative efforts from within.
I agree with the first part.

The second part should go in the "wacky conspiracy" thread
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Old 06-21-17, 12:09 AM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

Originally Posted by Troy Stiffler View Post
Am I reading this right... Democrats gained nearly 20% ground, compared to the presidential election? Not too bad.

My prediction is that there's going to be a radical change come 2018. Trump is only six months in. He's starting too many fires. I don't see his style lasting. Republicans will never fall below the lifelong R voters and crazy Trump people. Swing voters and occasional voters are going to be repulsed enough come 2018 and 2020.
plus republicans have their super top secret health care plan they're trying to pass ... that alone is like giving them a loaded gun and waiting to see if they'll use it on themselves
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Old 06-21-17, 12:18 AM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

I guess they didn't vote their Ossoff. And a comfortable six-point win is more than most predicted...even 538.
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Old 06-21-17, 12:45 AM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

538. Does that site get anything right. lolz.
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Old 06-21-17, 12:52 AM
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Re: Special elections, 2017-style

Originally Posted by Ghostbuster View Post
I don't think that the Georgia special election has that much bearing on the 2018 midterms. I expected the Republican to win this special election in red territory. Frankly, the Democrats might be better off having lost because Republicans will be more likely to become complacent. If the Democrat would have won, then alarms would have been going off in the GOP camp.
Alarms should be going off now because, although the Republicans are winning all these special elections, they are winning by less than they should, given history. If they ignore that, they just may be in for a rude awakening in 2018.
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