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2016 Presidential Election Part 2: Armageddon Edition

Old 10-31-16, 10:52 AM
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2016 Presidential Election Part 2: Armageddon Edition

Previous thread: http://forum.dvdtalk.com/religion-po...r-edition.html

Had to split this up as the other one was getting buggy.
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Old 10-31-16, 10:59 AM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Are we go to have an election prediction thread with guesses on popular and electoral votes?
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Old 10-31-16, 11:07 AM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Oh man, we were so close to getting there with the other thread, just one more week!

Anyways, it's weird how the race is tightening up. Wonder if there will be any more "surprises".
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Old 10-31-16, 11:15 AM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by wendersfan
Should have known? Sure, but Sanders seemed to have appealed to a subset of voters who were ignorant of the nomination process.
They are ignorant of a lot of things including but not limited to the United States historical and contemporary relationship with Russia, the willingness of Hillary Clinton to go to war with Russia, the ridiculous mythology of Hillary Clinton as warmonger, or the inner workings of political campaigns.
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Old 10-31-16, 11:19 AM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition



This American Life asked Sara Bareilles (Broadway’s “Waitress”) to imagine what President Obama might be thinking about the current election and Donald Trump, but can’t say publicly. Leslie Odom, Jr., performs the song.
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Old 10-31-16, 11:37 AM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Never heard of him, but he's got a good voice.
(although Sara Bareilles is an acquaintance and, a long time ago, me and my girlfriend at the time opened for her at a small club)
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Old 10-31-16, 11:44 AM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

He just won a Tony for playing Aaron Burr in "Hamilton".
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Old 10-31-16, 11:44 AM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by slop101 View Post
Never heard of him, but he's got a good voice.
(although Sara Bareilles is an acquaintance and, a long time ago, me and my girlfriend at the time opened for her at a small club)
He's a bigtime Broadway star. Also featured on Person of Interest and Smash.
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Old 10-31-16, 11:45 AM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by slop101 View Post
Never heard of him, but he's got a good voice.
(although Sara Bareilles is an acquaintance and, a long time ago, me and my girlfriend at the time opened for her at a small club)
That's cool, slop. My family are fans of Sara, and when we visited NYC last year we caught one of the previews of Waitress.
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Old 10-31-16, 11:48 AM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by slop101 View Post
Oh man, we were so close to getting there with the other thread, just one more week!

Anyways, it's weird how the race is tightening up. Wonder if there will be any more "surprises".
Romney and Obama were tied at this time 4 years ago in the average polls. The national polls are not worth shit at this point. Electoral polls are the best predictor.
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Old 10-31-16, 11:50 AM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Waiting for "Obama: The Musical" starring Leslie Odom, Jr.
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Old 10-31-16, 12:26 PM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by CRM114 View Post
Waiting for "Obama: The Musical" starring Leslie Odom, Jr.
Waiting for "Michelle Obama: The Golden Years" featuring Diahann Carroll.

With Leslie Uggams as understudy.



********
But as it is written:

“Eye has not seen, nor ear heard, Nor have entered into the heart of man
The things which God has prepared for those who love Him.” 2 Corinthians 2:9[/I]
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Old 10-31-16, 12:26 PM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

I hope Conway was smart enough to get her bucks up front.

Donald Trump's hiring of pollster Tony Fabrizio in May was viewed as a sign that the real estate mogul was finally bringing seasoned operatives into his insurgent operation.

But the Republican presidential nominee appears to have taken issue with some of the services provided by the veteran GOP strategist, who has advised candidates from 1996 GOP nominee Bob Dole to Florida Gov. Rick Scott. The Trump campaign's latest Federal Election Commission report shows that it is disputing nearly $767,000 that Fabrizio's firm says it is still owed for polling.

Trump campaign officials declined to provide details about the reason the campaign has declined to pay the sum to Fabrizio Lee, the pollster's Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based firm. "This is an administrative issue that we're resolving internally," said senior communications adviser Jason Miller. Fabrizio did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
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Old 10-31-16, 12:31 PM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by slop101 View Post
Never heard of him, but he's got a good voice.
(although Sara Bareilles is an acquaintance and, a long time ago, me and my girlfriend at the time opened for her at a small club)
Eh, so you're a doorman, slop?

Ahem...doorperson.

Ever post any of your performances on youtube or elsewhere on the 'net? Always looking to check out new talent.




*********
Then David and all Israel played music before God with all their might, with singing, on harps, on stringed instruments, on tambourines, on cymbals, and with trumpets. I Chronicles 13:8
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Old 10-31-16, 12:34 PM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by cungar View Post
Romney and Obama were tied at this time 4 years ago in the average polls. The national polls are not worth shit at this point. Electoral polls are the best predictor.
Yeah, exactly.

I posted this in the other thread, but here's a BEST possible electoral outcome for Trump.



And unless the GOP makes some changes, that's how it's going to be in 2020 and onward.
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Old 10-31-16, 12:37 PM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by slop101 View Post
Yeah, exactly.

I posted this in the other thread, but here's a BEST possible electoral outcome for Trump.



And unless the GOP makes some changes, that's how it's going to be in 2020 and onward.
There's going to have to be some pretty darn huge swing state dominoes falling Trump's way for him to pull this off. Even if he manages to grab Florida, NC and Ohio it ain't gonna cut it.
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Old 10-31-16, 12:40 PM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by creekdipper View Post

Ever post any of your performances on youtube or elsewhere on the 'net? Always looking to check out new talent.
Good god, NO! I just noodle on the guitar in the background. I prefer to have actual talented people to be in the spotlight.
Also, my gigging days are long behind me (local rock/punk bands in the '90s, and random back-up acoustic/electric guitars for friends in the '00), long before youtube. These days, I just noodle in the privacy of my own home.
[sorry for the tangent]
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Old 10-31-16, 12:42 PM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by cungar View Post
There's going to have to be some pretty darn huge swing state dominoes falling Trump's way for him to pull this off. Even if he manages to grab Florida, NC and Ohio it ain't gonna cut it.
Yeah, that's my point - that map is his BEST possible case; it would be pulling off a miracle, and even if he does, he still loses. Winning is pretty much out of the question.
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Old 10-31-16, 12:43 PM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

"I don't like these poll results, so I'm not going to pay for them seems par for the course for Trump.
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Old 10-31-16, 12:51 PM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by slop101 View Post
Yeah, that's my point - that map is his BEST possible case; it would be pulling off a miracle, and even if he does, he still loses. Winning is pretty much out of the question.
If we're talking Trump dream scenarios, winning New Hampshire wouldn't be completely out of the question. Maybe Michigan as well. It's a hard path that relies on everything breaking his way, but Trump does still have a path to 270.
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Old 10-31-16, 12:53 PM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by majorjoe23 View Post
"I don't like these poll results, so I'm not going to pay for them seems par for the course for Trump.
Little Miss Confidence

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Old 10-31-16, 01:00 PM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by slop101 View Post
Yeah, exactly.

I posted this in the other thread, but here's a BEST possible electoral outcome for Trump.
Can't see how this map is accurate. For example Clinton was +1 in the latest poll coming out of CO.
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Old 10-31-16, 01:05 PM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by General Zod View Post
Can't see how this map is accurate. For example Clinton was +1 in the latest poll coming out of CO.
She's averaging +4.0 in Colorado according to RCP.
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Old 10-31-16, 01:07 PM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

Originally Posted by cungar View Post
She's averaging +4.0 in Colorado according to RCP.
Gotta look at more than just the numbers. Also the dates.

Remington Research (R)* 10/30 - 10/30 1176 LV 2.9 45 44 Clinton +1

CBS News/YouGov* 10/26 - 10/28 997 LV 4.1 42 39 Clinton +3

Quinnipiac 10/10 - 10/16 685 LV 3.7 51 40 Clinton +11

If you want to reach about 3 weeks ago.. yeah +11. If you want to look recently she's +1 and +3 .. so +2 would probably be more accurate. But hardly a "best possible outcome" lock for Clinton right now.
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Old 10-31-16, 01:08 PM
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re: 2016 Presidential Election Part 2: FBI Clears Hillary (again) Edition

What's worrisome is that 538's projections are following the same pattern they did in June/July and August/September where Clinton skyrockets to an overwhelming chance of winning, holds steady for a week, then comes crashing down as the media turns its attention to her, before rebounding back to an overwhelming chance of victory. The rebound points in the previous cycles were the Republican Convention and the first debate. The only major event left is election day itself. If the pattern holds, Trump will be dangerously close to a 50% chance of winning on the 8th.

Hopefully there'll be one last bombshell for Trump in the next week. I know a lot of journalists on Twitter think there's one more out there, so it's just a question of whether the story will break while there's still time.
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