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View Poll Results: In 5 years, how many more states will allow SSM?
0
5
7.14%
1
0
0%
2
0
0%
3
1
1.43%
4
1
1.43%
5
7
10.00%
6
2
2.86%
7
1
1.43%
8
5
7.14%
9
1
1.43%
10+
28
40.00%
SCOUTS will have made it the law of the land in all 50 states
19
27.14%
Voters: 70. You may not vote on this poll

Same Sex Marriage: 2018 (State's legal issues)

Old 06-26-13, 03:25 PM
  #1  
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Same Sex Marriage: 2018 (State's legal issues)

Right now, 19 states + DC allow either same sex marriage or civil unions. (California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington). Ten years ago, the number was zero. Five Years ago, the number was 4.

Five years from now, which states do you think will allow either same sex marriage or some form of civil union?

Remaining states:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Mexico
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
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Old 06-26-13, 03:30 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

I say 3: New Mexico, Indiana, Pennsylvania.
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Old 06-26-13, 03:35 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

While some people may say things have gotten a lot better in the past 10-15 years, this graphic might tell a different story:

<span class="legend-color" style="display:inline-block; width:1.5em; height:1.5em; margin:1px 0; border:1px solid black; background-color: #2b0000; color:black; font-size:100%; text-align:center;">&nbsp;</span>&nbsp;Constitutional amendment bans same-sex marriage, civil unions, and any marriage-like contract between unmarried persons</div>
<div class="legend"><span class="legend-color" style="display:inline-block; width:1.5em; height:1.5em; margin:1px 0; border:1px solid black; background-color:maroon; color:black; font-size:100%; text-align:center;">&nbsp;</span>&nbsp;Constitutional amendment bans same-sex marriage and civil unions</div>
<div class="legend"><span class="legend-color" style="display:inline-block; width:1.5em; height:1.5em; margin:1px 0; border:1px solid black; background-color:red; color:black; font-size:100%; text-align:center;">&nbsp;</span>&nbsp;Constitutional amendment bans same-sex marriage</div>
<div class="legend"><span class="legend-color" style="display:inline-block; width:1.5em; height:1.5em; margin:1px 0; border:1px solid black; background-color: #ff8080; color:black; font-size:100%; text-align:center;">&nbsp;</span>&nbsp;Constitutional amendment grants legislature authority to ban same-sex marriage</div>
<div class="legend"><span class="legend-color" style="display:inline-block; width:1.5em; height:1.5em; margin:1px 0; border:1px solid black; background-color: #d3d3d3; color:black; font-size:100%; text-align:center;">&nbsp;</span>&nbsp;No constitutional amendments</div>

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Old 06-26-13, 04:24 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

I'll go best case and say 8.
AZ, FL, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI

Which will be enough to make way for the courts to force marriage equality in all 50 states. Articles will go on like 'a MAJORITY' of states now support.. etc.
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Old 06-26-13, 04:48 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

I am not seeing those states passing gay marriage laws by 2018. I am guessing it will be a court decision that will need to happen
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Old 06-26-13, 04:58 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

There are still 7 or 8 "civil union" states, so I'm going to say those become marriage states.

As for the *most* recalcitrant states, I'm less worried about how long they can prohibit marriages themselves than I am how long they can deny the validity of marriages done everywhere else. I'm used to not being able to marry. That was recently the status quo. But having a marriage ripped away for crossing state lines is a pretty new and sucky practice for this country.

Last edited by adamblast; 06-26-13 at 05:06 PM.
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Old 06-26-13, 05:11 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

New Jersey, New Mexico, and Illinois are very likely. Any state with a constitution amendment banning marriage equality won't happen in the next five years, probably.

Pennsylvania is a maybe. West Virginia, surprisingly, also a maybe.
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Old 06-26-13, 06:32 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

Once a month, Chris Christie goes on a NJ radio station for a "Ask the Governor" call in show. Today, he said he's urging NJ Democrats to put same-sex marriage on the ballot.

From what I understand, some NJ Democrats don't think that this is a ballot issue and want it settled by the NJ Supreme Court.

Also, last year, Christie vetoed a same sex marriage bill, saying that since NJ already allowed civil unions, the bill was redundant. But if the DOMA ruling today means that the federal government has to recognize same sex marriage but civil unions are different, maybe Christie thinks that the law is no longer redundant.

edit: Christie says if Trenton votes on same sex marriage again, he'll veto it again. He says if the people of NJ want SSM, they should call their state representatives and ask for it as a referendum.

Last edited by RoyalTea; 06-26-13 at 06:55 PM.
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Old 06-26-13, 06:54 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

I think we've come far enough with gay rights that I can finally say that the movie "Philadelphia" was a piece of shit.
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Old 06-26-13, 07:17 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

Originally Posted by RoyalTea View Post
Once a month, Chris Christie goes on a NJ radio station for a "Ask the Governor" call in show. Today, he said he's urging NJ Democrats to put same-sex marriage on the ballot.

From what I understand, some NJ Democrats don't think that this is a ballot issue and want it settled by the NJ Supreme Court.

Also, last year, Christie vetoed a same sex marriage bill, saying that since NJ already allowed civil unions, the bill was redundant. But if the DOMA ruling today means that the federal government has to recognize same sex marriage but civil unions are different, maybe Christie thinks that the law is no longer redundant.

edit: Christie says if Trenton votes on same sex marriage again, he'll veto it again. He says if the people of NJ want SSM, they should call their state representatives and ask for it as a referendum.
So he'll recognize one form of democracy (direct), but not another (representative)? That's weird.
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Old 06-26-13, 07:21 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

Originally Posted by Supermallet View Post
So he'll recognize one form of democracy (direct), but not another (representative)? That's weird.
Does a veto mean that a governor doesn't recognize democracy?
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Old 06-26-13, 07:57 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

Originally Posted by RoyalTea View Post
Once a month, Chris Christie goes on a NJ radio station for a "Ask the Governor" call in show. Today, he said he's urging NJ Democrats to put same-sex marriage on the ballot.

From what I understand, some NJ Democrats don't think that this is a ballot issue and want it settled by the NJ Supreme Court.

Also, last year, Christie vetoed a same sex marriage bill, saying that since NJ already allowed civil unions, the bill was redundant. But if the DOMA ruling today means that the federal government has to recognize same sex marriage but civil unions are different, maybe Christie thinks that the law is no longer redundant.

edit: Christie says if Trenton votes on same sex marriage again, he'll veto it again. He says if the people of NJ want SSM, they should call their state representatives and ask for it as a referendum.
He's only acting like this because he's going to run for president in 2016.
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Old 06-26-13, 07:58 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

Originally Posted by Supermallet View Post
So he'll recognize one form of democracy (direct), but not another (representative)? That's weird.
No, he just doesn't want to sign the bill because it'll reflect poorly in the GOP primaries.
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Old 06-26-13, 08:08 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

Originally Posted by Supermallet View Post
So he'll recognize one form of democracy (direct), but not another (representative)? That's weird.
It's not weird. He's up for re-election. In light of the perception that he's a moderate Republican, Governor Christie wants an issue on the ballot that will galvanize right-wing voters and drive them to the polls when they would otherwise stay home.
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Old 06-26-13, 08:13 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

Originally Posted by JasonF View Post
It's not weird. He's up for re-election. In light of the perception that he's a moderate Republican, Governor Christie wants an issue on the ballot that will galvanize right-wing voters and drive them to the polls when they would otherwise stay home.
I think this has a lot more to do with the 2016 primaries than it does with the 2013 governor's election.

In NJ, how many moderates does he drive away by saying he'll veto SSM again? How many conservatives in NJ who wouldn't otherwise vote would come out to turn down a referendum?
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Old 06-26-13, 08:14 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

Originally Posted by JasonF View Post
It's not weird. He's up for re-election. In light of the perception that he's a moderate Republican, Governor Christie wants an issue on the ballot that will galvanize right-wing voters and drive them to the polls when they would otherwise stay home.
A rare miss from you. Christie isn't vetoing marriage equality because he needs right-wing votes to get reelected. He's doing it to establish GOP bona fides for 2016.
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Old 06-26-13, 08:19 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

Geez, how many ignore lists am I on?
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Old 06-26-13, 08:22 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying Florida would be one of the last states to pass a SSM bill.
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Old 06-26-13, 08:25 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

Originally Posted by RoyalTea View Post
I think this has a lot more to do with the 2016 primaries than it does with the 2013 governor's election.

In NJ, how many moderates does he drive away by saying he'll veto SSM again? How many conservatives in NJ who wouldn't otherwise vote would come out to turn down a referendum?
Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet View Post
A rare miss from you. Christie isn't vetoing marriage equality because he needs right-wing votes to get reelected. He's doing it to establish GOP bona fides for 2016.
You guys are probably right. The polls are showing Christie is pretty highly favored over Buono, so the gubenatorial election probably isn't a factor.

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet View Post
Geez, how many ignore lists am I on?
Not mine.
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Old 06-26-13, 08:26 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

I don't know which states will be the next ones, but I know which ones definitely won't.

Places like Texas, Utah, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the Dakotas won't recognize same sex marriage until they're forced to by the feds.
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Old 06-26-13, 08:41 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

It's like peer pressure. The rest will fall in line since society's opinions on the subject are changing by the year.
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Old 06-26-13, 09:34 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

http://nj1015.com/christie-courts-de...marriage-bill/

“I don’t think the ruling was appropriate, I think it was wrong,” said Christie, “It’s typical of the problem we see in the New Jersey Supreme Court. The Court, without a basis in standing, substituted their own judgement for the judgement of a republican Congress and a democratic President [...] It’s another example of Judicial supremacy.”
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Old 06-26-13, 10:18 PM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

Originally Posted by Josh-da-man View Post
I don't know which states will be the next ones, but I know which ones definitely won't.

Places like Texas, Utah, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the Dakotas won't recognize same sex marriage until they're forced to by the feds.
Louisiana, too. The gay hate there is nuts. Seriously, LA and TX would be the first to secede from the union if the SCOTUS forced them to recognize gay marriage.
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Old 06-27-13, 04:46 AM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

Originally Posted by Ranger View Post
Louisiana, too. The gay hate there is nuts. Seriously, LA and TX would be the first to secede from the union if the SCOTUS forced them to recognize gay marriage.
Not allowed. The blue states would (once again) impose their will and refuse to let others leave the room.

I just want to know where the SCOTUS stands on opposite-sex marriage.

And wonder how many people, when a coworker says their son or daughter is getting married, will ask "Same-sex or opposite-sex?" (As opposed to the traditional "Who's the lucky guy/girl?")
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Old 06-27-13, 06:41 AM
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Re: Same Sex Marriage: 2018

Originally Posted by creekdipper View Post
Not allowed. The blue states would (once again) impose their will and refuse to let others leave the room.

I just want to know where the SCOTUS stands on opposite-sex marriage.

And wonder how many people, when a coworker says their son or daughter is getting married, will ask "Same-sex or opposite-sex?" (As opposed to the traditional "Who's the lucky guy/girl?")
I imagine they'd just offer congratulations, or say "wonderful news."

Or do you think conversations in 1967 went like this:

Co-worker 1: my kid got engaged this weekend!
Co-worker 2: to whom? A white or a black? I need to know this before offering any feelings of goodwill.
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