Religion, Politics and World Events They make great dinner conversation, don't you think? plus Political Film

The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Old 11-07-12, 01:00 PM
  #1  
DVD Talk Hero
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Posts: 36,979
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
The Fiscal Cliff Thread

There is talk of this in numerous threads so might as well create one thread for it.

The wikis say:

The United States fiscal cliff refers to the effect of a series of enacted legislation which, if unchanged, will result in tax increases, spending cuts, and a corresponding reduction in the budget deficit.[1] These laws include tax increases due to the expiration of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 and the spending reductions ("sequestrations") under the Budget Control Act of 2011.
The year-over-year changes for fiscal years 2012-2013 include a 19.63% increase in revenue and 0.25% reduction in spending.[2]


I didn't realize the sequestration was so small.
Old 11-07-12, 01:03 PM
  #2  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: MN
Posts: 23,935
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

.25% reduction and we'll probably not be able to agree to do even that.
Old 11-07-12, 01:21 PM
  #3  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Th0r S1mpson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 36,438
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

How many years to pay down the debt if that revenue increase holds and spending is locked at current levels?

I'm guessing "eternity" and that spending still greatly exceeds revenue after the fiscal cliff?
Old 11-07-12, 01:22 PM
  #4  
Moderator
 
wendersfan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Nuova Repubblica di SalÚ
Posts: 33,121
Received 39 Likes on 19 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Originally Posted by Venusian View Post
There is talk of this in numerous threads so might as well create one thread for it.

The wikis say:

The United States fiscal cliff refers to the effect of a series of enacted legislation which, if unchanged, will result in tax increases, spending cuts, and a corresponding reduction in the budget deficit.[1] These laws include tax increases due to the expiration of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 and the spending reductions ("sequestrations") under the Budget Control Act of 2011.
The year-over-year changes for fiscal years 2012-2013 include a 19.63% increase in revenue and 0.25% reduction in spending.[2]


I didn't realize the sequestration was so small.
It would reduce the deficit to from 7.3% of GDP in 2012 to 4.0% in 2013, and then to 2.4% in 2014.

Unless there's a recession.

Last edited by wendersfan; 11-07-12 at 01:36 PM.
Old 11-07-12, 02:09 PM
  #5  
DVD Talk God
 
kvrdave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Pacific NW
Posts: 86,189
Likes: 0
Received 2 Likes on 2 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Originally Posted by starman9000 View Post
.25% reduction and we'll probably not be able to agree to do even that.
Isn't that the truth.
Old 11-07-12, 02:25 PM
  #6  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Dr Mabuse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: 75 clicks above the Do Lung bridge...
Posts: 18,946
Likes: 0
Received 2 Likes on 2 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread



Old 11-07-12, 02:53 PM
  #7  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Th0r S1mpson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 36,438
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

The important lesson for Congress here is to not impose silly deadlines on yourselves or require difficult decisions. It just does not end up well.
Old 11-08-12, 05:01 PM
  #8  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Lower Gum Curve
Posts: 19,189
Likes: 0
Received 16 Likes on 12 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Old 11-08-12, 05:21 PM
  #9  
DVD Talk Hero
 
JasonF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 40,273
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Old 11-08-12, 06:12 PM
  #10  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Posts: 6,747
Likes: 0
Received 65 Likes on 25 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Originally Posted by Thor Simpson View Post
How many years to pay down the debt if that revenue increase holds and spending is locked at current levels?

I'm guessing "eternity" and that spending still greatly exceeds revenue after the fiscal cliff?
Just doing a simple look, I believe if we continued to annually increase revenue by 19.63% and reduce spending by 0.25%, the debt would be paid off at some point in 2021. Same year if spending was held steady. In either of those scenarios, we'd run about a $8.5 trillion surplus in 2021, the year we broke even. Of course, that has 0% chance of actually happening.
Old 11-08-12, 08:20 PM
  #11  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Nick Danger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Albuquerque
Posts: 23,830
Received 107 Likes on 79 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

They can impose a deadline, and they can extend the deadline. It's just a voice vote away. There is no cliff.
Old 11-08-12, 08:29 PM
  #12  
DVD Talk Ultimate Edition
 
BKenn01's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Big Blue Nation!
Posts: 4,496
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Originally Posted by maxfisher View Post
Just doing a simple look, I believe if we continued to annually increase revenue by 19.63% and reduce spending by 0.25%, the debt would be paid off at some point in 2021. Same year if spending was held steady. In either of those scenarios, we'd run about a $8.5 trillion surplus in 2021, the year we broke even. Of course, that has 0% chance of actually happening.
Supply siders are going to say it wont work because of the revenue component (I am assuming you are getting there mainly by tax increases)

The Keynesian's will say it wont work because of the spending decreases
Old 11-08-12, 08:41 PM
  #13  
DVD Talk Legend
 
cungar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 22,088
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Old 11-08-12, 09:20 PM
  #14  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Working for Gizmonic Institute
Posts: 10,428
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Originally Posted by Nick Danger View Post
They can impose a deadline, and they can extend the deadline. It's just a voice vote away. There is no cliff.
This. Look for it to come mere moments before they go to holiday break, with much wiping of sweat off brows and hearty backslaps for a crisis <s>averted</s> deferred.
Old 11-09-12, 09:06 AM
  #15  
DVD Talk Ultimate Edition
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Connecticut
Posts: 4,004
Likes: 0
Received 6 Likes on 6 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Originally Posted by starman9000 View Post
.25% reduction and we'll probably not be able to agree to do even that.
Originally Posted by kvrdave View Post
Isn't that the truth.

We could reduce military spending by that amount in a heartbeat.


Originally Posted by Thor Simpson View Post
The important lesson for Congress here is to not impose silly deadlines on yourselves or require difficult decisions. It just does not end up well.
Originally Posted by Nick Danger View Post
They can impose a deadline, and they can extend the deadline. It's just a voice vote away. There is no cliff.
There is a cliff. It's what Obama wants it to be. The deadline will force the two sides to reach a deal, even if it moves into next year to avoid the lame duck sessions (likely). Obama (ultimately) can call the shots on the timing because it will require the Democrat's approval.
Old 11-09-12, 09:11 AM
  #16  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Formerly known as "orangecrush18" - still legal though
Posts: 13,844
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Originally Posted by Thor Simpson View Post
The important lesson for Congress here is to not impose silly deadlines on yourselves or require difficult decisions. It just does not end up well.
Kicking the can down the road is the only way difficult legislation gets passed these days.
Old 11-09-12, 09:18 AM
  #17  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
Join Date: Mar 1999
Location: St Louis, MO
Posts: 6,921
Received 45 Likes on 33 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Originally Posted by ctyankee View Post

We could reduce military spending by that amount in a heartbeat.
True, but it's how you go about the reduction that's important. An across-the-board reduction is not the way to do it. You need to have an honest assessment of the waste, inefficiencies and unnecessary engagements and make the cuts intelligently. But it sure doesn't seem like anyone in congress or the pentagon is interested in that kind of exercise.
Old 11-09-12, 09:29 AM
  #18  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Troy Stiffler's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Under an I-10 Overpass
Posts: 22,370
Received 20 Likes on 19 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

It's Friday. Payroll is due. Someone get on the phone with China.
Old 11-09-12, 09:39 AM
  #19  
DVD Talk Ultimate Edition
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Connecticut
Posts: 4,004
Likes: 0
Received 6 Likes on 6 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Originally Posted by kefrank View Post
True, but it's how you go about the reduction that's important. An across-the-board reduction is not the way to do it. You need to have an honest assessment of the waste, inefficiencies and unnecessary engagements and make the cuts intelligently. But it sure doesn't seem like anyone in congress or the pentagon is interested in that kind of exercise.
Well said and I agree. But let's discuss unnecessary engagements with an example just to make my point. Currently, wherever a Chinese sub goes, one of our subs mirrors its movements. Why? Our safety? Some strategic objective? We are China's largest customer. I sleep really good at night knowing that China isn't going to attack its largest customer nor the country that owes it trillions in dollars in loans. Some decisions truly aren't that hard.

Last edited by ctyankee; 11-09-12 at 09:49 AM.
Old 11-09-12, 01:47 PM
  #20  
DVD Talk Gold Edition
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,861
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

http://www.businessweek.com/articles...e-fiscal-cliff

House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) has now come out publicly with something he’d told Obama administration officials in private last summer: To avert the fiscal cliff, he’s willing to find a way for the government to raise more money. Since 2011, conservatives in Boehner’s House caucus have been unwilling to do just that. The stance has frustrated moderate Republicans and some traditional allies of the Republican Party, namely, a group of chief executive officers associated with the Campaign to Fix the Debt. Boehner has taken note, saying on Wednesday: “Mr. President, We want you to succeed. … Let’s challenge ourselves to find the common ground that has eluded us.”


Moderate Republicans are egging him on: “The notion that it is inappropriate or wrong to compromise, as a matter of political dogma, is not reality-based,” says Steve Schmidt, the Republican strategist who advised John McCain in the 2008 presidential race. “The leadership should be based in reality. The goal isn’t to never compromise; the goal is to get the best deal you can get.”

Boehner said on Wednesday that Republicans would accede to a “fairer, cleaner, simpler tax code” in exchange for raising additional revenue. The implication is that he wants to close loopholes. There was no mention of either hiking, or lowering, rates. In recent months, many Republicans (including Mitt Romney) have said that every dollar in revenue generated by closing a loophole must be matched by savings from cutting rates. Steve Bell, senior director of economic policy at the Washington-based Bipartisan Policy Center, points out that Boehner didn’t slap that binding condition on things yesterday.

And Bell says some large—popular—tax deductions are already being targeted behind closed doors, including the one for mortgage interest, which costs the government about $100 billion a year. “Anyone who thinks the mortgage interest deduction is not going to be on the table during a discussion of tax reform is kidding themselves,” says Bell. (The GOP quietly took protection for the mortgage interest deduction out of its party platform this year.) A further candidate for reform is the $54 billion exemption for state and local taxes.

Where Boehner draws his red lines this time around will be the subject of much chatter in the coming days. The GOP’s Tea Party-backed candidates lost races in a number of states on Election Day, but 51 members of that tax-averse caucus will reclaim their seats in January. And as Columbia University political scientist Brigitte Nacos explained to me, many aren’t planning to change their approach. Schmidt says Boehner should heed the lessons of the election and hasten to come up with a deal. “The debt ceiling debacle,” he adds, “was a politically induced economic crisis. For people who are pragmatic and serious, like John Boehner, they understand that.” Boehner has long envisioned himself a reformer. Now that hoped-for legacy is riding on how he handles the fiscal cliff.
Good to hear that the mortgage interest deduction and other deductions are on the table. Maybe the two parties can find common ground in the elimination of deductions which are used to distort markets and give handouts to specific groups and interest. Of course, I would favor a lowering of the overall tax rates, but I would be fine in eliminating deductions as a first step, we can talk about the much simpler specific percentages and rates later.
Old 11-09-12, 01:57 PM
  #21  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Troy Stiffler's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Under an I-10 Overpass
Posts: 22,370
Received 20 Likes on 19 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

"The goal isn’t to never compromise; the goal is to get the best deal you can get."

That needs to be told, in repetition, to all of our politicians.
Old 11-09-12, 02:03 PM
  #22  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: DVDTalk's Surgeon General
Posts: 5,531
Likes: 0
Received 2 Likes on 1 Post
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

So what percent tax increase to the top tax bracket do they comprise to?
Old 11-09-12, 02:03 PM
  #23  
DVD Talk God
 
kvrdave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Pacific NW
Posts: 86,189
Likes: 0
Received 2 Likes on 2 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Originally Posted by ctyankee View Post

We could reduce military spending by that amount in a heartbeat.

We could also reduce social spending by that amount in a heartbeat. But it doesn't mean we will.


There is a cliff. It's what Obama wants it to be. The deadline will force the two sides to reach a deal, even if it moves into next year to avoid the lame duck sessions (likely). Obama (ultimately) can call the shots on the timing because it will require the Democrat's approval.
He might just need the House to play along.
Old 11-09-12, 02:24 PM
  #24  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: DVDTalk's Surgeon General
Posts: 5,531
Likes: 0
Received 2 Likes on 1 Post
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Originally Posted by kvrdave View Post
We could also reduce social spending by that amount in a heartbeat. But it doesn't mean we will.



He might just need the House to play along.
He should spend some of the political capital he earned Tuesday night to get what he ran on (tax increases) passed through.
Old 11-09-12, 03:06 PM
  #25  
Admin
 
VinVega's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Herding cats
Posts: 32,857
Received 128 Likes on 78 Posts
Re: The Fiscal Cliff Thread

Originally Posted by troystiffler View Post
"The goal isnít to never compromise; the goal is to get the best deal you can get."

That needs to be told, in repetition, to all of our politicians.
It's sad that compromise is a dirty word now.

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.