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View Poll Results: How Many Senate Seats Will The Repubs Gain
1
2
5.88%
2
0
0%
3
0
0%
4
3
8.82%
5
7
20.59%
6
4
11.76%
7
5
14.71%
8
5
14.71%
9
3
8.82%
10 or more
5
14.71%
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The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

Old 10-19-10, 11:26 AM
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The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

How many Senate seats will the Repubs gain this election?

If you think the Democrats will gain seats please feel free to post how many .
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Old 10-19-10, 11:31 AM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

I'll say +7.
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Old 10-19-10, 12:11 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

5-6
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Old 10-19-10, 12:30 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

I voted for 5 because I'm an optimist. I think the real number could be as low as 3 and as high as 8.
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Old 10-19-10, 12:32 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

I think low is 5 and high is 9. So I split the difference.
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Old 10-19-10, 12:44 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

I went with 6, but there wasn't a 5.5 option. 5.5 would be a great number for an over/under.
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Old 10-19-10, 12:53 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

Originally Posted by kvrdave View Post
I went with 6, but there wasn't a 5.5 option. 5.5 would be a great number for an over/under.
Too easy - I'd jump on Over 5.5 in a heartbeat.
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Old 10-19-10, 01:29 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

I think is is pretty safe to say that Republicans have four seat ready for the taking. (PA, ND, IN, AK) There are five more that could go either way. (NV, CO, WI, WV, IL). And I would be shocked if they grab CA, CT, or WA. I'll go with 7.
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Old 10-19-10, 01:54 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

Originally Posted by Lemdog View Post
I think is is pretty safe to say that Republicans have four seat ready for the taking. (PA, ND, IN, AK) There are five more that could go either way. (NV, CO, WI, WV, IL). And I would be shocked if they grab CA, CT, or WA. I'll go with 7.
I would move PA into the toss-up category, add AR to the R safe category, add OH into the toss-up category, and move WV into the D safe category.
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Old 10-19-10, 01:58 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

I don't know. Looks like Toomey is going to win PA unless Sestak hits him hard with negative ads the next two weeks.
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Old 10-19-10, 02:51 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

Originally Posted by JasonF View Post
and move WV into the D safe category.
You are joking right?
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Old 10-19-10, 03:03 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

Charlie Cook has the WVA race a toss-up.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/senate#belowMap
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Old 10-19-10, 03:52 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

Originally Posted by JasonF View Post
I would move PA into the toss-up category, add AR to the R safe category, add OH into the toss-up category, and move WV into the D safe category.
Ohio is not a toss up. That senate race is over. Though I agree that PA is close.
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Old 10-19-10, 03:59 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

OH as a toss-up?
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Old 10-19-10, 04:01 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

Originally Posted by wendersfan View Post
OH as a toss-up?
Jason is apparently an extreme optimist.

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Old 10-19-10, 04:02 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

Rasmussen Poll: Republican Rob Portman has now jumped to a 23-point lead over Democratic Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race.

Charlie Cook has it as a toss-up.
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Old 10-19-10, 04:04 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

Rasmussen also has Toomey-Sestak as 49-39. Does Rasmussen have any credibility?
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Old 10-19-10, 04:06 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

The Ohio Poll has Portman up by 22. I'd say stick a fork in Lee Fisher, except you'd probably break off the tines if you tried.
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Old 10-19-10, 04:08 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

To be fair to Charlie (and you know me - Mr. Fairness) his report is about 2 weeks old.

I won't pay for the latest ones.
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Old 10-19-10, 04:10 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

Originally Posted by CRM114 View Post
Rasmussen also has Toomey-Sestak as 49-39. Does Rasmussen have any credibility?
Yes, though not my favourite.

However, it was taken a week ago, I believe.

It's getting closer, but I still think Toomey wins by three to five. Your fellow citizens sure hate the President.
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Old 10-19-10, 04:10 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

Nate Silver has Portman with a 99.6% chance of winning the Ohio Senate race.
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Old 10-19-10, 04:16 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

Originally Posted by wendersfan View Post
Nate Silver has Portman with a 99.6% chance of winning the Ohio Senate race.
Fisher has been abandoned by the party and may be getting close to being broke. I will be surprised if he hits forty percent.
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Old 10-19-10, 04:17 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

Originally Posted by Pharoh View Post
Fisher has been abandoned by the party and may be getting close to being broke. I will be surprised if he hits forty percent.
I'm guessing it's more important for Ohio Democrats to keep Strickland in the governor's mansion. Although that race isn't looking great for the Dems, either.
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Old 10-19-10, 04:19 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

I wonder what the expected black voter turnout is in PA. That's probably what will doom Sestak - the black vote won't turn out. He needs that to offset the widespread anti-Obama sentiment there.
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Old 10-19-10, 04:20 PM
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Re: The One & The Only Senate Race Predictions

Portman seems to be up by an average of 18.5 points in the polls.

I thought Strickland had been a good governor - no?
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