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View Poll Results: How many seats will the Repubs gain this election
less than 10
2
7.69%
10-20
0
0%
21-30
2
7.69%
31-40
6
23.08%
41-50
5
19.23%
over 50
11
42.31%
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The One & The Only House Race Predictions

Old 10-26-10, 05:38 PM
  #26  
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

I eagerly await the fiscal and social utopia that the republican majority will usher in.
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Old 10-26-10, 06:23 PM
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

Originally Posted by Jason View Post
I eagerly await the fiscal and social utopia that the republican majority will usher in.
No kidding! These last 2 years have been so great I'm going to miss them. Come to think of it, things really started going well in 2006 when Democrats got both houses.
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Old 10-26-10, 09:37 PM
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

Originally Posted by X View Post
No kidding! These last 2 years have been so great I'm gong to miss them. Come to think of it, things really started going well in 2006 when Democrats got both houses.
If we could only express our enjoyment in some sort of graph form...

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Old 10-26-10, 10:16 PM
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

The House is much more important for the Repubs to win than is the Senate.

If you have the majority in the House, you call the shots. You have control of all the committees. House committees have considerably more power than do the Senate committees.

The all important Rules Committee in the House sets the rules and time for debate on measures. They decide which amendments, if any, will be allowed on the floor. They decide whether a motion to recommit will be permitted.

All important revenue measures originate in the House.

Repubs will most certainly win enough Senate seats to block any thing they don't want to go forward.
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Old 10-26-10, 11:22 PM
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

What legislation did the Congress pass in 2006-08 that brought about the recession? This is a fascinating conclusion.
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Old 10-27-10, 08:50 AM
  #31  
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

Joe Scarborough believes the Democrats will retain control of the House.
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Old 10-27-10, 08:51 AM
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

Joe's playing the reverse jinx game.
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Old 10-27-10, 08:54 AM
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

Originally Posted by classicman2 View Post
Joe Scarborough believes the Democrats will retain control of the House.
I expect a lot of this kind of talk this week. Can't let the supporters stay home thinking all is lost.
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Old 10-27-10, 08:54 AM
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

Joe thinks Alabama would beat BSU by 60 points.
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Old 10-27-10, 09:00 AM
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

Joe thinks Alabama can beat anyone by 60 pts.
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Old 10-27-10, 09:15 AM
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

Originally Posted by mosquitobite View Post
I expect a lot of this kind of talk this week. Can't let the supporters stay home thinking all is lost.
Who is Joe supporting?

I wonder sometimes.
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Old 10-27-10, 09:07 PM
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...ys-bets-early/

Bookie says GOP can't lose House, pays bets early

By Stephen Dinan

The Washington Times

8:40 a.m., Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Saying there's no way Democrats can keep control of the House, Ireland's largest bookie on Wednesday said it has already paid off all bettors who wagered the GOP would capture the chamber.

“In our opinion this race is well and truly over with nothing short of a miracle stopping the Republicans taking down the House," said Ken Robertson, communications manager for Paddy Power, the Irish bookmaker.

Mr. Robertson said the odds had tipped so much in Republicans' favor it made no sense to continue taking bets. In July Democrats were favored 8-11 to keep control, but by Wednesday the GOP was favored 1-50, meaning it would take a bet of $50 would win just an addition $1.

Other overseas bookies are still taking bets on control of the House. Victor Chandler betting house, for example, gives the GOP 1-25 odds while Betfair gives them 1-10 odds.

The bookies say control of the Senate remains a contested issue, though both Paddy Power and Victor Chandler give Democrats the edge to keep control, at 2-9 odds.

Wednesday's payoff was not first time Paddy Power has made waves with an early pay-off. In 2008, after the final presidential debate between then-candidates Barack Obama and John McCain, the bookie said there was no way Mr. McCain could win, and paid out more than $1 million on Mr. Obama's victory. And in January, they paid off early on bets for Scott Brown, who won the special election to fill the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's seat.
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Old 11-02-10, 11:12 AM
  #38  
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

Thanks to The Daily Beast, a blast from the past, from 1994:

Originally Posted by Charlie Cook
The Democrats will lose 20-25 in the House; four to five in the Senate.
Originally Posted by Stuart Rothenberg
The Democrats will lose 24-26 seats in the House; three to five in the Senate.
Originally Posted by Larry Sabato
Nevertheless, it looks like Democrats will be lucky to lose only 24-25 seats in the House and four in the Senate.
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Old 11-02-10, 11:14 AM
  #39  
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

Nice.

I'll have to go look at intrade.

I'm sticking with my previous prediction of a high-50s pickup.
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Old 11-02-10, 11:17 AM
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

Intrade:

GOP wins House. 97%.

Looks like the break-even point on pick-up number on intrade is between +60 (62%) and +65 (48%).
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Old 11-02-10, 11:30 AM
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
Intrade:

GOP wins House. 97%.

Looks like the break-even point on pick-up number on intrade is between +60 (62%) and +65 (48%).
Nate Silver's model has a 16% chance that Democrats control at least 218 seats.
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Old 11-02-10, 11:36 AM
  #42  
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Re: The One & The Only House Race Predictions

It's sure looking more like 60+ seats than the 39 I predicted a while ago.

http://forum.dvdtalk.com/politics-wo...l#post10321035

And Obama's approval is only down a couple points. That model is going to need some updating.
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