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DGibFen 02-15-10 11:07 AM

Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh will not seek re-election this year, a decision that hands Republicans a prime pickup opportunity in the middle of the country.

"After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so by serving in Congress has waned," Bayh will say.

Bayh will announce the decision at a press conference later today. He was first elected to the Senate in 1998 and was re-elected easily in 2004. National Republicans had recruited former Sen. Dan Coats to challenge Bayh in 2010 although polling suggested Bayh began the race with a 20-point edge. He also had $13 million in the bank at the end of the year.

Prior to being in the Senate, Bayh served two terms as governor of the Hoosier State. He also served briefly as Secretary of State.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the...l?hpid=topnews

DeputyDave 02-15-10 11:24 AM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 
Dropping like flies. I guess it's better to go out unbeaten and on your own terms, than as the punchline to a joke.

JasonF 02-15-10 11:59 AM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 
Only four days before the filing deadline to run for Senate. I recognize that Senator Coates is almost certainly going to win anyway, but it would have been nice if Senator Bayh had given a little more notice so that the Indiana Democrats could recruit some good candidates. Oh well.

Pharoh 02-15-10 12:16 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Originally Posted by JasonF (Post 9999822)
Only four days before the filing deadline to run for Senate. I recognize that Senator Coates is almost certainly going to win anyway, but it would have been nice if Senator Bayh had given a little more notice so that the Indiana Democrats could recruit some good candidates. Oh well.

Not entirely convinced that Sen. Coats will win the nomination.

Regardless, good news.

Pharoh 02-15-10 12:17 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 
Oh, and as of right now, we are likely looking at a 49-49-2 split. Just need one or two more.

Th0r S1mpson 02-15-10 12:19 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 
Dems dropping all the way to 49? I think that's unlikely.

kvrdave 02-15-10 12:19 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 
I can't imagine being in that job for 12 years. I can understand anyone getting tired of it and wanting to enjoy life. Just a very different type of person than myself, I suppose.

kvrdave 02-15-10 12:21 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Originally Posted by Thor Simpson (Post 9999846)
Dems dropping all the way to 49? I think that's unlikely.

I think it is unlikely as well. I also thought that losing the Kennedy seat was more remote than unlikely.

Pharoh 02-15-10 12:22 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Originally Posted by Thor Simpson (Post 9999846)
Dems dropping all the way to 49? I think that's unlikely.

Technically 49, yes.

Th0r S1mpson 02-15-10 12:24 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 
So you're predicting 49 plus the Liebermeister?

Pharoh 02-15-10 12:28 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Originally Posted by Thor Simpson (Post 9999855)
So you're predicting 49 plus the Liebermeister?

And Sanders.

Dr Mabuse 02-15-10 12:31 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Originally Posted by kvrdave (Post 9999847)
I can't imagine being in that job for 12 years. I can understand anyone getting tired of it and wanting to enjoy life. Just a very different type of person than myself, I suppose.

Chuck Colson described what it was like in a very real way.

He talked about power being more addicting and personally destructive than alcoholism or heroin addiction or the like.

On of his points was - 'When you first arrive in power you are surprised and even flattered by doors being opened and a limo always waiting, you feel a need to thank the people in those roles. After a while you hardly even notice such things or the people, they become normalized. A while later you truly think you deserve them, and you'll be furious if the limo is late or that door isn't opened.' - Paraphrased from memory.

"Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power." - Abraham Lincoln

Pharoh 02-15-10 12:32 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 
Granted, it is still extremely early, but if the elections were held today I think these states would flip:

Ill., Ind., Nev., N.D., Del., Pa., Colo., and Ark.

N.H., Mo., and Oh. being the possibilities to flip the other way, but not as of today.

chowderhead 02-15-10 12:32 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Originally Posted by JasonF (Post 9999822)
Only four days before the filing deadline to run for Senate. I recognize that Senator Coates is almost certainly going to win anyway, but it would have been nice if Senator Bayh had given a little more notice so that the Indiana Democrats could recruit some good candidates. Oh well.

Coats is a pretty damaged candidate and the only poll showed Bayh with a 20 point lead. The problem/issue is that the Democrats needs to collect 500 signatures in each of the 9 districts to get on the ballot by tomorrow. Otherwise if no candidate does, the Democratic party will select the candidate. What will be a nightmare for Democrats is if some no name person gets on the ballot and wins the nomination. Then, they cannot select their own nominee.

edit: I wouldn't put it past Lieberman to switch either.

Pharoh 02-15-10 12:36 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Originally Posted by chowderhead (Post 9999868)
Coats is a pretty damaged candidate and the only poll showed Bayh with a 20 point lead. The problem/issue is that the Democrats needs to collect 500 signatures in each of the 9 districts to get on the ballot by tomorrow. Otherwise if no candidate does, the Democratic party will select the candidate. What will be a nightmare for Democrats is if some no name person gets on the ballot and wins the nomination. Then, they cannot select their own nominee.

Which is why I think Hostettler has a realistic chance of securing the nomination.

Regardless, do you see one of the Dem. House members defeating either Republican?

Venusian 02-15-10 12:44 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 
You think Ill would flip? The GOP better find a better candidate than Alan Keyes

Pharoh 02-15-10 12:46 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Originally Posted by Venusian (Post 9999893)
You think Ill would flip? The GOP better find a better candidate than Alan Keyes

They already have one in Rep. Kirk.

coli 02-15-10 12:51 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 
The dems see the writing on the wall, because the independents are flocking to republicans for the 2010 midterms.

Independents control every election, and when it is overwhelming anger towards the party in power (2006, 1994) there will be a huge change in the house and senate. And the fact that the republicans are motivated and the dems are fighting (moderates and liberals), the republicans may take over the whole congress come November.

If you asked me a few months ago, I thought the republicans would win 4-5 senate seats and 25 house seats, but if Unemployment stays at around 10%, then they could win 9-13 senate seats, and 50+ house seats.

chowderhead 02-15-10 01:05 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Originally Posted by Pharoh (Post 9999877)
Which is why I think Hostettler has a realistic chance of securing the nomination.

Regardless, do you see one of the Dem. House members defeating either Republican?

I am not saying that given this political environment that Hostettler will not win but he doesn't fund raise well, has his family take top positions in his political campaign and could be prone to saying some peculiar things. He would not be the strongest candidate. Pence or Daniels if they jump in would make this a likely Republican flip. The other two would be leans Republicans depending on who the
Democrats can get.

wendersfan 02-15-10 01:16 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Originally Posted by coli (Post 9999904)
The dems see the writing on the wall, because the independents are flocking to republicans for the 2010 midterms.

Flocking? Most of the polling I'm seeing shows that people dislike congressional Republicans more than Obama (aka, "damning with faint praise").


Originally Posted by coli (Post 9999904)
Independents control every election

There are far too few independents to control most, if any elections. Most self-described "independents" are partisan, even if they can't admit it.

Pharoh 02-15-10 01:19 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Originally Posted by chowderhead (Post 9999929)
I am not saying that given this political environment that Hostettler will not win but he doesn't fund raise well, has his family take top positions in his political campaign and could be prone to saying some peculiar things. He would not be the strongest candidate. Pence or Daniels if they jump in would make this a likely Republican flip. The other two would be leans Republicans depending on who the
Democrats can get.

I guess I didn't consider either running.

Further, with Hill the most likely Dem. candidate, (at least most likely according to himself), I just don't set the chance of a hold very high.

Who else do you think the pick might be if for not one of the three House members?

Pharoh 02-15-10 01:20 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Originally Posted by wendersfan (Post 9999948)
Flocking? Most of the polling I'm seeing shows that people dislike congressional Republicans more than Obama (aka, "damning with faint praise").

There are far too few independents to control most, if any elections. Most self-described "independents" are partisan, even if they can't admit it.

And as Chowder already pointed out, Senator Bayh was going to win if he ran.

coli 02-15-10 01:21 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 
[QUOTE=wendersfan;9999948]Flocking? Most of the polling I'm seeing shows that people dislike congressional Republicans more than Obama (aka, "damning with faint praise").



Poll Date Sample Republicans Democrats Spread
RCP Average 1/20 - 2/9 -- 44.7 42.7 Republicans +2.0
Pew Research 2/3 - 2/9 42 45 Democrats +3
ABC News/Wash Post 2/4 - 2/8 RV 48 45 Republicans +3
Rasmussen Reports 2/1 - 2/7 3500 LV 44 36 Republicans +8
Democracy Corps (D) 2/2 - 2/4 805 LV 45 46 Democrats +1
Gallup 2/1 - 2/3 942 RV 45 45 Tie
NPR - POS/GQR 1/20 - 1/23 800 LV 44 39 Republicans +5

Democrats were leading the generic polls by 15-20 points about 5-6 months ago, and now most that has turned where republicans are leading in most polls now.

That shows that independents are leaning towards republicans, because you don't get a big change like that among the partisans in each party.

wendersfan 02-15-10 01:23 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Originally Posted by coli (Post 9999962)
Democrats were leading the generic polls by 15-20 points about 5-6 months ago

No.

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wishbone 02-15-10 01:30 PM

Re: Evan Bayh Decides to Retire
 

Announcement staggers Indiana Democrats
By Mary Beth Schneider
Posted: February 15, 2010

Stunned Indiana Democrats today were left to analyze why Sen. Evan Bayh decided not to seek re-election and figure out where the party would go without its leader.

Mike O’Connor -- a former deputy mayor under one of Bayh’s proteges, Bart Peterson — said that “shock is the feeling of the moment.”

He and others said Bayh would have won re-election, but were still struggling to understand the announcement.

He noted that Bayh cited increasing partisanship in Washington as the driving force behind his decision, but said that partisanship is nothing new. If Bayh is now fed up by it, “what does that say to the rest of us?” O’Connor asked.

Bayh, he said, is the man who led a new generation of Indiana Democrats into political power and competitiveness. His loss for the party will be huge.

Ann DeLaney, a long-time associate of Bayh who was state Democratic Party chairman when he was governor, said Bayh had been “the 800-pound gorilla in Indiana politics for the last 24 years.”

He had helped launch the political careers of many Democrats who had worked on his campaigns and in his office, including Peterson.

She said she accepted his reason for getting out of politics now.

“He just didn’t like what he was doing,” she said.

DeLaney said the party’s state central committee will have to find a replacement for Bayh on the ballot, and said the obvious names to consider would be members of Congress, including U.S. Rep. Baron Hill.

Democrats won’t find a candidate to match Bayh, says Nathan Gonzalez, political editor for the Rothenberg Political Report.

"Democrats will find a candidate, but they won't be able to fully replace a proven statewide vote-getter with $13 million in the bank,” Gonzalez said. “It's not impossible to hold, but this is precisely the wrong year that Democrats want to be defending an open seat in Indiana.

Evan Bayh has been around long enough to know that partisanship is normal part of the process."

http://www.indystar.com/article/2010...iana-Democrats

That's Baron "This is my town meeting" Hill.


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