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Election Day 2009 Preview

Old 11-04-09, 10:59 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Dr Mabuse View Post
So can anyone sum up what these election results meant?

What do these outcomes mean?
Reality?

Elections are no longer about President Bush.
Old 11-04-09, 11:04 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Dr Mabuse View Post
So can anyone sum up what these election results meant?

What do these outcomes mean?
A sweep is a sweep. Suck it Obama.
Old 11-04-09, 11:13 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Dr Mabuse View Post
So can anyone sum up what these election results meant?

What do these outcomes mean?
They mean that Christie will be governor of New Jersey, McDonnell will be governor of Virginia, and Owens will represent NY-23. I think anybody trying to read broader trends than that is a fool.
Old 11-04-09, 11:23 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by JasonF View Post
They mean that Christie will be governor of New Jersey, McDonnell will be governor of Virginia, and Owens will represent NY-23. I think anybody trying to read broader trends than that is a fool.
Yeah, I suppose it is foolish of me to look at a more engaged and motivated Republican base, and the fact that President Bush as a scapegoat is no longer relevant as meaning anything.
Old 11-04-09, 11:27 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Pharoh View Post
Yeah, I suppose it is foolish of me to look at a more engaged and motivated Republican base
A what now?
Old 11-04-09, 11:54 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

I believe one thing is for certain - Obama didn't have a hell of lot of influence over the voters in VA & NJ.
Old 11-04-09, 12:17 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Pharoh View Post
Yeah, I suppose it is foolish of me to look at a more engaged and motivated Republican base, and the fact that President Bush as a scapegoat is no longer relevant as meaning anything.
That Republican base motivated itself right the hell out of a seat that's gone to the GOP for as long as there has been a GOP. Well done!

So, of the four elections people have focused on, we have two governorships in states that traditional send the party that is out of the White House to the state house and both did so, in both cases by tossing out the incumbent party during a time of economic toruble. We have one reliably safe Democratic seat that stayed with the Democrats and one reliably safe Republican seat that flipped to the Democrats despite the best efforts of Sarah Palin, Glen Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Dick Armey, and other prominent conservative/Republican voices that had thrown their weight behind the Tea Party candidate. Clearly, this all spells doom for President Obama.
Old 11-04-09, 12:18 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Instead of watching the election results, Obama watched a movie about himself:

<object width="518" height="419"><param name="movie" value="http://www.eyeblast.tv/public/eyeblast.swf?v=Gd6UqGnzDk" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><embed src="http://www.eyeblast.tv/public/eyeblast.swf?v=Gd6UqGnzDk" allowfullscreen="true" width="518" height="419" /></object>

-- UPDATE --

Looks like the news report is incorrect. Here's an update from NewsBusters:

A tipster contacted NewsBusters questioning that report and after having acquired a transcript of the press gaggle, we have confirmed that the Fox News report was incorrect and Gibbs did not make any such statement......

Clearly Gibbs was simply referencing the HBO documentary as evidence that the President does not routinely watch election returns.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/kyle-dr...aggle-comments

Last edited by TheBigDave; 11-04-09 at 02:34 PM.
Old 11-04-09, 12:21 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

once Obama got involved with the NJ race, it really seemed like the message was "both Corzine and Christie suck, but a vote for Christie is a vote against Obama"

I don't think that the people of NJ liked Corzine very much at all and were ready to vote him out of office, but I really think that if Obama's approval rating was higher, the election in NJ would have been closer or gone the other way.
Old 11-04-09, 12:42 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by RoyalTea View Post
once Obama got involved with the NJ race, it really seemed like the message was "both Corzine and Christie suck, but a vote for Christie is a vote against Obama"

I don't think that the people of NJ liked Corzine very much at all and were ready to vote him out of office, but I really think that if Obama's approval rating was higher, the election in NJ would have been closer or gone the other way.
Old 11-04-09, 12:42 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by RoyalTea View Post
once Obama got involved with the NJ race, it really seemed like the message was "both Corzine and Christie suck, but a vote for Christie is a vote against Obama"

I don't think that the people of NJ liked Corzine very much at all and were ready to vote him out of office, but I really think that if Obama's approval rating was higher, the election in NJ would have been closer or gone the other way.
Corzine's defeat had nothing to do with Obama. He was an unpopular governor.

This was an Election Day about local issues.
Old 11-04-09, 12:56 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by JasonF View Post
That Republican base motivated itself right the hell out of a seat that's gone to the GOP for as long as there has been a GOP. Well done!

So, of the four elections people have focused on, we have two governorships in states that traditional send the party that is out of the White House to the state house and both did so, in both cases by tossing out the incumbent party during a time of economic toruble. We have one reliably safe Democratic seat that stayed with the Democrats and one reliably safe Republican seat that flipped to the Democrats despite the best efforts of Sarah Palin, Glen Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Dick Armey, and other prominent conservative/Republican voices that had thrown their weight behind the Tea Party candidate. Clearly, this all spells doom for President Obama.

Please point out where I stated there was doom for President Obama and the Democrats.



And I will disagree over how safe the NY-23 seat was, despite the histrionics of history. Ms. Scozzafava was far from a shoo-in victor; I think she would have lost a close race. Or do you simply choose to ignore what I posted about President' Obama's performance in that CD?

And playing the what-if game for a moment, had Mr. Hoffman been the listed Republican he would have won handily. Frankly, I think he did remarkably well given the circumstances. Note, I am not arguing one way or the other on whether the GOP should have done what they did.
Old 11-04-09, 01:06 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
These suburbanites bought into the hope, change, making history aspect of Obama. Many realized they were duped.
Which part were they duped on?

Hope - hmmm...there's still hope.

Change - change obviously came, and is definitely coming big-time in the form of healthcare.

Making history - he certainly did that.


Again, where's the duping? The fact that eight years of Bush administration fuck-ups haven't been fixed in the first ten months?
Old 11-04-09, 01:38 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by RoyalTea View Post
once Obama got involved with the NJ race, it really seemed like the message was "both Corzine and Christie suck, but a vote for Christie is a vote against Obama"

I don't think that the people of NJ liked Corzine very much at all and were ready to vote him out of office, but I really think that if Obama's approval rating was higher, the election in NJ would have been closer or gone the other way.
No NJ governor has won reelection since Christie Todd Whitman.
Old 11-04-09, 01:53 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by CRM114 View Post
No NJ governor has won reelection since Christie Todd Whitman.
This was really only the first time an incumbant ran since Whitman also, so it isn't like there have been a string of incumbant defeats.

I think it is funny that Corzine lost. It is so funny to now here democrats talk about what a bad candidate he was. Well were was all that talk back during the primaries when he could have been replaced? Oh, that's right, the state dems were too busy taking his money.

And he should really be a democrats wet dream candidate, no? He is for ALL the liberal causes. Loves to spend money on education. Loves big government. Loves Unions. So how exactly is he a bad democrat candidate?????
Old 11-04-09, 02:09 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Pharoh View Post
Please point out where I stated there was doom for President Obama and the Democrats.
Only my first paragraph was in response to you; I apologize for not making that clearer.
Old 11-04-09, 02:15 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by CRM114 View Post
No NJ governor has won reelection since Christie Todd Whitman.
Perhaps more importantly, no candidate for New Jersey governor has won election while his or her party controlled the White House since 1985. You have to go back to 1973 for that to have happened in Virginia.

That said, I'm skeptical of reading too much into statistics like the above. Elections are highly idiosyncratic contests between two particular candidates at a particular point in time. I believe peoples' opinions of Corzine and Christie (or McDonnell or Deeds) and their respective policy positions swamp any thoughts on dividing the state house from the White House, or sending a message to Washington, or any of the other factors people are bringing up to try to explain these elections.
Old 11-04-09, 02:15 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by tcoursen View Post
This was really only the first time an incumbant ran since Whitman also, so it isn't like there have been a string of incumbant defeats.

I think it is funny that Corzine lost. It is so funny to now here democrats talk about what a bad candidate he was. Well were was all that talk back during the primaries when he could have been replaced? Oh, that's right, the state dems were too busy taking his money.

And he should really be a democrats wet dream candidate, no? He is for ALL the liberal causes. Loves to spend money on education. Loves big government. Loves Unions. So how exactly is he a bad democrat candidate?????
I never said he was a bad candidate. Don't know where you got that? I only said Jersey has a lot of problems and this defeat has nothing to do with a referendum on Obama.
Old 11-04-09, 02:16 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by JasonF View Post
Perhaps more importantly, no candidate for New Jersey governor has won election while his or her party controlled the White House since 1985. You have to go back to 1973 for that to have happened in Virginia.

That said, I'm skeptical of reading too much into statistics like the above. Elections are highly idiosyncratic contests between two particular candidates at a particular point in time. I believe peoples' opinions of Corzine and Christie (or McDonnell or Deeds) and their respective policy positions swamp any thoughts on dividing the state house from the White House, or sending a message to Washington, or any of the other factors people are bringing up to try to explain these elections.
New Jersey is simply a clusterfuck. Any incumbent was going to lose.
Old 11-04-09, 02:22 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by CRM114 View Post
I never said he was a bad candidate. Don't know where you got that? I only said Jersey has a lot of problems and this defeat has nothing to do with a referendum on Obama.
Sorry, you didn't say that and didn't mean to imply that you did. The second part of my post was a general comment on how the TV and radio today various commentators have talked about him being a bad candidate and how democrats knew that, and how despite knowing that Obama backed him, etc.

I do agree though that his loss had NOTHING to do with Obama. Obama is still popular here in NJ.
Old 11-04-09, 02:28 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by CRM114 View Post
New Jersey is simply a clusterfuck. Any incumbent was going to lose.
Yes, but it is that way in a very very very large part to the democrats that have run the state at all levels for a long time now.

When was the last time Newark had a republican mayor?? You would think the people would get tired of the same old party that does nothing for the city, but no they keep electing the same people and somehow get away with blaming the other party.

Christie will be a one termer. The only thing he may be able to do is possibly get rid of some of the state employees and maybe get new hires into 401Ks rather than the poorly funded state pension. But he is already coming into office facing a 6-10 BILLION dollar deficit next year because of how Corzine did the budget this year. So one way or another NJ will find out very fast what Christie is going to be.
Old 11-04-09, 02:37 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by classicman2 View Post
I believe one thing is for certain - Obama didn't have a hell of lot of influence over the voters in VA & NJ.
This one he did. Granted, not in a positive way.
Old 11-04-09, 02:38 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by CRM114 View Post
New Jersey is simply a clusterfuck. Any incumbent was going to lose.
That's easy to say now.
Old 11-04-09, 02:55 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

It's easy when you understand the state and the conditions that are driving their residents into MY state.
Old 11-04-09, 02:56 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
This one he did. Granted, not in a positive way.
Out of curiosity, what effect do you think the fact that Virginia has a Republican governor will have on the Obama administration? Put differently, how do you think the difference between McDonnell and Deeds will play out in terms of the actions of the federal government?

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