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Election Day 2009 Preview

Old 11-04-09, 06:09 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

I went 0-3 in my local election. I guess that gives me a free pass to complain that it's not my fault
Old 11-04-09, 06:17 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by starman9000 View Post
I went 0-3 in my local election. I guess that gives me a free pass to complain that it's not my fault
Kinda like I felt all year
Old 11-04-09, 06:29 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by DeputyDave View Post
Kinda like I felt all year
Most of mine didn't really matter. I'm really annoyed at the councilman who won though, my ward has 2 colleges in it and he's a teacher at one of them. He used his position to get the kids to win (no policy involved, just repeating that "the other guy doesn't think college kid's votes matter" so they voted in droves to "prove him wrong")
Old 11-04-09, 07:36 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Would have been nice to see Nanny Bloomberg lose. Oh well.
Old 11-04-09, 07:43 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
I'll post the results from Loudoun and Prince William counties when they are posted. That's your bellweather. They decide elections in VA. To win a statewide VA election, one must get to 50% in these 2 counties - at least it's been that way in 6 major (Prez/Gov/Sen) statewide elections since 2002. These are basically independents - solidly middle to upper-middle class - generally open-minded on social issues. I tend to think many got caught up in Obamania last year. If they back McDonnell several pts over 50, who's quite conservative socially, that speaks volumes to me.

I'll also post Fairfax County results which is more liberal (but not as liberal as Arlington or Alexandria). If McDonnell does better than 45% there, that would be big. For frame of reference, the best a Republican has done in the previous 6 elections there is Bush-2004 with 46%. It's more liberal now than it was in '04.

Here we go....

Fairfax: McDonnell 51%
Loudoun: McDonnell 61%
Prince William: McDonnell 58%

Huge numbers in the swing counties of Loudoun and PW and for Fairfax to go majority Republican is unheard of in recent history. I think it speaks for the general sentiment in those counties about what the Democrats are trying to do in Washington. Some Jeffersonianism migrating to the northern VA burbs.
Old 11-04-09, 07:59 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Lawrence O'Donnell says it was a great night for Democrats - winning the NY congressional seat.

I believe you'll find not too many folks in agreement with Lawrence. His assertion was laughed at on Morning Joe.
Old 11-04-09, 08:01 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

The exit polls seem to indicate a huge shift among the independents in VA.
Old 11-04-09, 08:04 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Atlanta Mayor is going to runoff
Old 11-04-09, 08:13 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
Would have been nice to see Nanny Bloomberg lose. Oh well.
That was never going to happen. The man spent $100M on this election.

Of course, it was a lot closer than anyone thought it would be. I doubt we'll see Bloomberg 2013.
Old 11-04-09, 08:22 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

I don't think there is a lot to read into these results. The 3 elections that have been of national focus were all decided on local candidates/issues plus the NY race was a complete cluster f***.

I think maybe those moderate Dems in Congress might be a little more reluctant to back the WH though, since it looks less likely that The One can save their asses back home.
Old 11-04-09, 08:44 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by wmansir View Post
I don't think there is a lot to read into these results. The 3 elections that have been of national focus were all decided on local candidates/issues plus the NY race was a complete cluster f***.
That's why you have to dig deeper and look at bellweather areas. The areas where suburban voters got caught up in Obamania. In the VA counties I listed, you find swings of 14, 15, and 11 pts between 2008 and 2009.
Old 11-04-09, 08:49 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
That's why you have to dig deeper and look at bellweather areas. The areas where suburban voters got caught up in Obamania. In the VA counties I listed, you find swings of 14, 15, and 11 pts between 2008 and 2009.
It's a lot simpler than that. The incumbent president in 2008 was a Republican. The economy sucked in 2008. Victory-non-incumbent.

The economy still sucks in 2009 (less so, but still really bad.) Victory-non-incumbent.

Old 11-04-09, 08:53 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
That's why you have to dig deeper and look at bellweather areas. The areas where suburban voters got caught up in Obamania. In the VA counties I listed, you find swings of 14, 15, and 11 pts between 2008 and 2009.
Have you seen the exit polls that say the majority of voters did not view this as a referrendum on Obama? Deeds was a crappy candidate who ran a crappy campaign.

As for Fairfax never going majority Republican -- do you consider 1997 "recent history?"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgini...election,_1997
Old 11-04-09, 08:54 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

That's what it looks like to me. Both NJ and VA seem to have a history of lets go the opposite with the governor. It means something, I suppose, if you get caught up in the hysteria that Obama's win means Dems will never lose an election again, but what serious person believes that?
Old 11-04-09, 08:56 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by JasonF View Post
Have you seen the exit polls that say the majority of voters did not view this as a referrendum on Obama? Deeds was a crappy candidate who ran a crappy campaign.

As for Fairfax never going majority Republican -- do you consider 1997 "recent history?"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgini...election,_1997
Isn't there a difference between a 'referendum on Obama' & a 'referendum on some of Obama's policies'?
Old 11-04-09, 08:56 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet View Post
It's a lot simpler than that. The incumbent president in 2008 was a Republican. The economy sucked in 2008. Victory-non-incumbent.

The economy still sucks in 2009 (less so, but still really bad.) Victory-non-incumbent.

Yeah, it's called buyer's remorse. So much that they said fuck it, and voted for a social conservative (which most certainly does not reflect the feelings in those areas).

It wasn't buyer's remorse for me, but I basically said fuck it and held my nose.
Old 11-04-09, 08:58 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
That's why you have to dig deeper and look at bellweather areas. The areas where suburban voters got caught up in Obamania. In the VA counties I listed, you find swings of 14, 15, and 11 pts between 2008 and 2009.
But is it an ideological swing, or just a matter of turnout? As a test for "Obamania" it may be a moot point if he can't bring his Obamatons out to vote when he's not on the ballot.
Old 11-04-09, 08:58 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

I think that most people are more concerned about jobs than they are about health care reform.
Old 11-04-09, 09:02 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by JasonF View Post
Have you seen the exit polls that say the majority of voters did not view this as a referrendum on Obama? Deeds was a crappy candidate who ran a crappy campaign.

As for Fairfax never going majority Republican -- do you consider 1997 "recent history?"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgini...election,_1997
What Democrat would have won here this year? Besides Mark Warner? Hell, of the 3 primary candidates, Deeds was the one with the best chance. He was the closest to the center. Crappy campaign or not, the Democrats were going to lose this. Accept that.

What did the exit polls say about Obama in those counties? Do you not agree those are the key counties in VA? I'm sure for most of the state, it didn't matter. I know it's part of your 'job' in this forum to spin everything toward Obamacrat sunshine and lollipops, but look at the actual results.

1997? Not particularly. Like I said in a previous post, Fairfax is more liberal than it was a decade ago.
Old 11-04-09, 09:03 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

All this "Obamania" talk is lazy, IMO. Certainly there was some of that, but there's no evidence that he won because everyone was wrapped up in a cult of personality. The guy won because the economy was in the shithole and he wasn't of the incumbent party.
Old 11-04-09, 09:07 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by classicman2 View Post
Isn't there a difference between a 'referendum on Obama' & a 'referendum on some of Obama's policies'?
Obama was a non-factor for most voters, whether you're talking about the President himself or his policies. For those for whom he (or his policies) was a factor, they were pretty much evenly split between pro-Obama and anti-Obama in New Jersey, with a slight but statistically significant edge for anti-Obama in Virginia.
Old 11-04-09, 09:08 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by wmansir View Post
But is it an ideological swing, or just a matter of turnout? As a test for "Obamania" it may be a moot point if he can't bring his Obamatons out to vote when he's not on the ballot.
Those are the type of counties that drove Obama to his tremendous success last year. Those counties aren't filled with blacks or liberals, so turnout isn't much of a factor IMO (as opposed to state turnout - I'm sure black turnout was down significantly). These suburbanites bought into the hope, change, making history aspect of Obama. Many realized they were duped.
Old 11-04-09, 09:11 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
Those are the type of counties that drove Obama to his tremendous success last year. Those counties aren't filled with blacks or liberals, so turnout isn't much of a factor IMO (as opposed to state turnout - I'm sure black turnout was down significantly). These suburbanites bought into the hope, change, making history aspect of Obama. Many realized they were duped.
You keep saying this, but do you have any evidence?
Old 11-04-09, 09:12 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by classicman2 View Post
Isn't there a difference between a 'referendum on Obama' & a 'referendum on some of Obama's policies'?
I admit I'm being lazy with my language....I think the results I posted reflect an anti-Democrat in Washington sentiment (so more than just Obama).
Old 11-04-09, 09:14 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

I will say this for New Jersey: it took more than a year, but finally a Goldman executive lost his job because of the Wall Street clusterfuck.

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