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Afterbirther Movement (long form released)

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Afterbirther Movement (long form released)

Old 02-19-11, 09:53 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by crazyronin View Post
There are primaries every two years, unless they are only counting presidential primaries.
Why wouldn't they? Off-year primaries get less turn out than Presidential primaries, so asking if someone voted in the 2010 primary wouldn't give you everyone who's likely to vote in 2012.
Old 02-19-11, 10:10 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by Sean O'Hara View Post
Why wouldn't they? Off-year primaries get less turn out than Presidential primaries, so asking if someone voted in the 2010 primary wouldn't give you everyone who's likely to vote in 2012.
Probably because if you're looking for a high propensity voter (particularly in a poll during an off year election cycle) you would want someone who has a propensity to vote during an off year election.
Old 02-19-11, 10:42 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by crazyronin View Post
Probably because if you're looking for a high propensity voter (particularly in a poll during an off year election cycle) you would want someone who has a propensity to vote during an off year election.
But the poll in question is looking at the 2012 election. Limiting "likely voters" to people who voted in the 2010 primaries wouldn't give you as accurate results as including 2008 voters.
Old 02-19-11, 11:14 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

I agree with Sean O'Hara -- if you're doing presidential polling, I would expect you want to look at prior presidential elections, not lower ballot races. That said, PPP hasn't explained which prior years they are looking at for their likely voter screen. The "2008 and maybe 2000 or 1996" parenthetical was purely my own supposition, not based on any statement from PPP. Maybe they agree with crazyronin and are looking at 2010/2008/2006 primary voters.
Old 02-19-11, 11:17 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by Sean O'Hara View Post
But the poll in question is looking at the 2012 election. Limiting "likely voters" to people who voted in the 2010 primaries wouldn't give you as accurate results as including 2008 voters.
Yes it would, at least better than most other factors. Particularly if you look back at their consistent voting history for a couple elections and/or add in some demographics. Just picking a single last major election isn't as good an indicator as a more recent one. Do you really think all the "Yes We Can" hyped-up first-time voters from 2008 are going to be as enthused in 2012?
Old 02-19-11, 11:26 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by X View Post
Yes it would, at least better than most other factors. Particularly if you look back at their consistent voting history for a couple elections and/or add in some demographics. Just picking a single last major election isn't as good an indicator as a more recent one. Do you really think all the "Yes We Can" hyped-up first-time voters from 2008 are going to be as enthused in 2012?
Yes, someone who voted in the 2010 primary is going to be more likely to vote in 2012 than someone who voted in 2008, but they're also going to be much more partisan, which would skew the results.
Old 02-19-11, 11:37 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by Sean O'Hara View Post
Yes, someone who voted in the 2010 primary is going to be more likely to vote in 2012 than someone who voted in 2008, but they're also going to be much more partisan, which would skew the results.
I agree with that to an extent concerning non-presidential election years. However the voters in 2008 were pretty damn partisan. I think many have swung back to being more independent.
Old 02-19-11, 12:39 PM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

This whole birther thing is stupid. I voted against Obama and will again, but he's President and will be President until at least 2012 people need to accept that and by virtue of ebing an American hope he does well while opposing policies that are not good. The notion of a loyal opposition has really gone by the wayside (not just the birthers, but all the whack jobs wanting to arrest Bush).
Old 02-19-11, 01:29 PM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by BearFan View Post
This whole birther thing is stupid. I voted against Obama and will again, but he's President and will be President until at least 2012 people need to accept that and by virtue of ebing an American hope he does well while opposing policies that are not good. The notion of a loyal opposition has really gone by the wayside (not just the birthers, but all the whack jobs wanting to arrest Bush).
Yes, both sides are bad.

Spoiler:
so vote republican!
Old 02-19-11, 10:13 PM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

A couple of weeks before the last election I got a call from a pollster - the result was that Obama briefly took the lead in Georgia, based on the incorrect assumption that I am representative of the old white guy vote. Polling is imperfect.
Old 02-20-11, 12:14 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Going back to 2008 also makes sense because you include more dead Democrats that will still be voting in the next election.
Old 04-01-11, 09:23 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

And the truth will out:

President Obama seeks sanctuary in Paris (AFP)
PARIS (01 Apr 2011)- In a stunning development, former President of the United States Barack Hussein Obama has sought sanctuary in Paris after being denied protection in the Kingdom of Freedonia.

In a shocking revelation, Barack Obama disclosed he was born in Russia as part of a highly secret KGB program to breed Communist deep cover operatives for future important assignments. His biological father was poet Frank Marshall Davis, which is why he has been unable to disclose his truth birth certificate until today. Former President of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev has independently confirmed the facts.

Asked for comment, WorldNet Daily Editor Joseph Farah is quoted as saying "See, I told you so - in fact, this exceeds my wildest dreams!". Calls to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton seeking comment were not immediately returned.

During an interview, Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan started that that he filled with joy at the news and is relieved that the world now knows that Brother Obama has been a Muslim all along. Reverend Farrakhan has urged Mr. Obama to seek permanent refuge in Libya under the generous auspices of their mutual friend Muammar Kaddafi.

Joe Biden will be sworn in as President at 2 PM Eastern time today. According to unnamed reliable sources, President Biden will nominate Senator Al Franken to become Vice President of the United States, subject to the advice and consent of the United States Senate.

link
Old 04-14-11, 08:23 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

This Donald Trump stuff is maddening. Jon Stewart mentioned what I have been saying every time I see that comb-over douchebag on TV. The state issued birth certificate is what is required for a United States passport. Trump is saying that millions of American passports are invalid including mine. I say we round up all the fuckers at the airports and force them to come up with some hospital certificate from when they were born in 1954. C'mon, Trump has his! Everyone does!!! (Well, except me. I just have the state issued birth certificate.)
Old 04-14-11, 08:26 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

How could anybody get mad over something Donald Trump says?
Old 04-14-11, 08:39 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Let me know when he no longer is the leading Repub candidate opposing Obama. Hell, Romney has now dropped to 4th behind Trump, Huckabee, and Palin. Quite a crew there.
Old 04-14-11, 09:02 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by CRM114 View Post
Let me know when he no longer is the leading Repub candidate opposing Obama. Hell, Romney has now dropped to 4th behind Trump, Huckabee, and Palin. Quite a crew there.
God help us all if Trump becomes the Republican nomine.
Old 04-14-11, 09:19 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by CRM114 View Post
This Donald Trump stuff is maddening. Jon Stewart mentioned what I have been saying every time I see that comb-over douchebag on TV. The state issued birth certificate is what is required for a United States passport. Trump is saying that millions of American passports are invalid including mine. I say we round up all the fuckers at the airports and force them to come up with some hospital certificate from when they were born in 1954. C'mon, Trump has his! Everyone does!!! (Well, except me. I just have the state issued birth certificate.)
You actually attach value in anything Trump says?! (at least enough value to find it "maddening")

It's obvious that he isn't serious. He is a big name taking a whacky extreme right-wing position so that the real candidate who will be far less extreme than he is (but far right of center) will appear to be "moderate".

The other possible outcome is that Trump is setting people up for him to later declare that after all of his research on the matter, he has concluded that President Obama was indeed born in Hawaii.

Either way he doesn't actually believe what he's saying.
Old 04-14-11, 09:28 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by sracer View Post
The other possible outcome is that Trump is setting people up for him to later declare that after all of his research on the matter, he has concluded that President Obama was indeed born in Hawaii.
That is the maddening part. What research? Obama has a legitimate birth certificate that is perfectly acceptable to receive a US passport. What exactly is the question here?
Old 04-14-11, 09:42 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by CRM114 View Post
Let me know when he no longer is the leading Repub candidate opposing Obama. Hell, Romney has now dropped to 4th behind Trump, Huckabee, and Palin. Quite a crew there.
I'll bet money that Trump will not be the nominee.
Old 04-14-11, 10:21 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by sracer View Post
You actually attach value in anything Trump says?! (at least enough value to find it "maddening")

It's obvious that he isn't serious. He is a big name taking a whacky extreme right-wing position so that the real candidate who will be far less extreme than he is (but far right of center) will appear to be "moderate".

The other possible outcome is that Trump is setting people up for him to later declare that after all of his research on the matter, he has concluded that President Obama was indeed born in Hawaii.

Either way he doesn't actually believe what he's saying.
You're overlooking the possibility that he's just a retard.
Old 04-14-11, 10:44 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by Sean O'Hara View Post
You're overlooking the possibility that he's just a retard.
Or that he is just looking for any kind of publicity for his show.
Old 04-14-11, 11:01 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by orangecrush View Post
Or that he is just looking for any kind of publicity for his show.
Old 04-14-11, 11:04 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

But...but...but Trump is purportedly a billionaire. Why would he stoop to such levels for ratings?
Old 04-14-11, 11:06 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

You are apparently under the delusion that Trump has any sense of decency or decorum.
Old 04-14-11, 11:32 AM
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Re: Birther Movement (merged)

Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
You are apparently under the delusion that Trump has any sense of decency or decorum.
Yeah, I don't think he even knows what shame is.

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