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The 2008 election's 18th thread

Old 06-03-08, 09:22 AM
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The 2008 election's 18th thread

Continued from here:

http://forum.dvdtalk.com/showthread.php?t=531993
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Old 06-03-08, 09:23 AM
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In before Hillary clinches!
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Old 06-03-08, 09:25 AM
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I should note that I'm only rooting for Hillary right now out of morbid fascination. I want Obama to win for three reaons:

1) I think he will be easier to beat
2) If the Democrat does defeat McCain, I want it to be Obama in charge, not Clinton.
3) I think that a McCain v Obama matchup will be handled a lot more responsibly than any Clinton election, which could be very refreshing in our country.

But... As many as 140 superdelegates may pledge their support for Hillary Clinton within 24 hours of the conclusion of the primaries, including 32 previously announced for Obama. That would certainly outweigh the plans the senate Supers have in mind.
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Old 06-03-08, 09:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Thor Simpson
I should note that I'm only rooting for Hillary right now out of morbid fascination. I want Obama to win for three reaons:

1) I think he will be easier to beat
2) If the Democrat does defeat McCain, I want it to be Obama in charge, not Clinton.
3) I think that a McCain v Obama matchup will be handled a lot more responsibly than any Clinton election, which could be very refreshing in our country.

But... As many as 140 superdelegates may pledge their support for Hillary Clinton within 24 hours of the conclusion of the primaries, including 32 previously announced for Obama. That would certainly outweigh the plans the senate Supers have in mind.
OK, Thor, what the hell are you talking about??? Link???

Last edited by NCMojo; 06-03-08 at 09:32 AM.
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Old 06-03-08, 09:34 AM
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I will repeat what I said in the previous thread:

Haha what?
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Old 06-03-08, 09:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Thor Simpson
I should note that I'm only rooting for Hillary right now out of morbid fascination.
Good gravy. I thought you were being serious.

Last edited by The Bus; 06-03-08 at 09:40 AM.
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Old 06-03-08, 09:38 AM
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So, <b>classicman</b>, do you have a response to the '04 poll numbers that demonstrate that Kerry did not have a sizable advantage (or really, any advantage at all) four years ago?
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Old 06-03-08, 09:40 AM
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Originally Posted by NCMojo
OK, Thor, what the hell are you talking about??? Link???
I just said they may. That's not based on any news. It could happen.

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Old 06-03-08, 09:41 AM
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Doesn't classicman usually ignore questions directed at him that (correctly) challenge his viewpoint?
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Old 06-03-08, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted by The Bus
Doesn't classicman usually ignore questions directed at him that (correctly) challenge his viewpoint?
He's not the only one. c-man asked a question of poster "The Bush" in the last thread -- and I'm yet to see a response.
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Old 06-03-08, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Groucho
He's not the only one. c-man asked a question of poster "The Bush" in the last thread -- and I'm yet to see a response.
The Bush will not communicate directly with c-man until he suspends cranium enrichment and states that he no longer wants to "wipe Israel in the face with a kleenex."
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Old 06-03-08, 09:50 AM
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Originally Posted by The Bus
Doesn't classicman usually ignore questions directed at him that (correctly) challenge his viewpoint?
I have no idea what you're talking about.

In 2004, Kerry had the nomination sewn up nine days after '"Super Tuesday", which was March 2. The rest of the candidates, and the party, rallied around him. This year, Obama has endured a close, divisive, and contentious campaign that is still, technically, not over. His party has not fully accepted him as the nominee. Yet, at the same point (temporally) in the campaign, he stands no worse than Kerry did four years earlier. And we are to believe he's a "flawed" candidate? Based on that evidence I don't see it. If c-man wants to argue Obama's vulnerability he needs to find a different tactic.
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Old 06-03-08, 09:55 AM
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Kerry was running against an incumbent president. Obama is not. Kerry was running against a man who was not so long in the tooth as Obama is. Kerry was running against an incumbent president when the major issue was the war. Gas prices weren't skyrocketing. The economy, one can argue wasn't in great shape, but it's in better shape than today. The housing market was in a little better shape than it is today - wouldn't you agree. The COL was less than it is today.

btw: Which statement does NCMojo & Tracer Bullet take exception to in post #3? Surely it's not number 1.
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Old 06-03-08, 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted by classicman2
Kerry was running against an incumbent president when the major issue was the war. Gas prices weren't skyrocketing. The economy, one can argue wasn't in great shape, but it's in better shape than today. The housing market was in a little better shape than it is today - wouldn't you agree. The COL was less than it is today.
These are all mostly correct statements but I fail to see how they support your argument.
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Old 06-03-08, 10:08 AM
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All of the above points are true. I would argue that the internal divisions within the Democratic party are hurting Obama about as much as Bush's incumbency helped him four years ago and that it's currently a wash in terms of effect. In other words, one could easily state that people like c-man are the reason why Obama is doing so "poorly", and if he were really the loyal partisan he says he is then he would rally around his candidate.
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Old 06-03-08, 10:12 AM
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Breaking news on CNN:
Officials say Hillary will acknowledge tonight that Obama has the delegates for the nomination.

So... does that mean she will be calling it quits, or acknowledging that he has the delegates while continuing to make her case, given that Supers can swing?

Or maybe as many as 140 superdelegates may pledge their support for Hillary Clinton within 24 hours of the conclusion of the primaries, including 32 previously announced for Obama. That would certainly outweigh the plans the senate Supers have in mind.
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Old 06-03-08, 10:13 AM
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Originally Posted by The Bus
Doesn't classicman usually ignore questions directed at him that (correctly) challenge his viewpoint?
The question is framed wrong. It should start out with the phrase "Some people would have you believe", and ends with a
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Old 06-03-08, 10:24 AM
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Originally Posted by The Bus
These are all mostly correct statements but I fail to see how they support your argument.
They support the argument in that McCain is a much more vulnerable candidate than Buh was in 2004, for the following reasons:

1. Incumbency (this is massive)
2. The economy (robust in '04, weak now)
3. Iraq War, public sentiment regarding (roughly half the electorate supported the war four years ago, less than a third (IIRC) do now)
4. Questions of health

So, ceteris paribus, Obama should be doing better. However, he's still not even the accepted nominee by many members of his party, while, by this time four years ago, Kerry had sewn up the nomination three months before.
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Old 06-03-08, 10:29 AM
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I realized something about why so many Clinton supporters really seem to resent Senator Obama. Part of it is gender and part of it is race, but the more I think about it, the more I think there's a strong generational component.

Simply put, Baby Boomers are not ready to concede the stage to the next generation yet. The Boomers have always had a difficult time coming to grips with aging, and so it's not that surprising that they are having trouble passing the reins to a Gen Xer.

There has been some talk about Senator Obama capturing the youth vote, or his not doing as well among older voters as Senator Clinton. But if anyone has really sat down and explored this generational dynamic, I've missed it.

But consider this -- we had 7 presidents from the "Greatest Generation" and only 2 from the Baby Boomer Generation. How can the Boomers get two administrations and then out? How can that be when 60 is the new 40? It upends the self-image of a lot of Boomers, who still -- deep in their heart of hearts -- probably don't trust anyone over 30. They are "the generation that changed America;" their time in the sun isn't over until they say it is.
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Old 06-03-08, 10:33 AM
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Well, yeah. I think anyone under the age of 40 got that a long time ago.
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Old 06-03-08, 10:34 AM
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The boomers need to move to the side and let another dynamic take over.
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Old 06-03-08, 10:34 AM
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Originally Posted by wendersfan
However, he's still not even the accepted nominee by many members of his party, while, by this time four years ago, Kerry had sewn up the nomination three months before.
Obama's lead over McCain should be very interesting to watch as Obama gets better known.

His big appeal has been that he's been a virtual clean slate with an appealing superficial image. But that can't last much longer. I know I've been having more reservations about him the more I find out about him, and most of what I've been finding out about him has been coming from his own mouth.
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Old 06-03-08, 10:38 AM
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Obama was born in 1961, so he's a "Baby Boomer". The cut off year was 1964. Therefore, I'm also a "boomer".

I'm not saying there isn't an age component to all this, but the terminology being used is erroneous.

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Old 06-03-08, 10:38 AM
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It's congressional primary day here in New Mexico. When Senator Pete Dominici retired, all three of our congressmen left their seats to campaign for the Senate. Two of them are Republicans. One of them is going to be unemployed tomorrow.

I'd rather that Heather Wilson won. But the obedient party-man Steve Pearce is ahead in the polls.
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Old 06-03-08, 10:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet
Well, yeah. I think anyone under the age of 40 got that a long time ago.
I'm under 40 and I just figured it out.
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