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2008 Presidential Election (part VIII)

Old 01-28-08, 10:10 PM
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2008 Presidential Election (part VIII)

Let's go for a part eight.

Previous thread HERE

Now let's see if we can really change some minds in this thread. We were so close last thread.
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Old 01-28-08, 10:16 PM
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Someone needs to step up and recap everything that's been said so far.

That would be fun.
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Old 01-28-08, 10:17 PM
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My mind was changed last thread. I thought Hillary had a great chance still but now I'm getting more and more doubtful that she will prevail. Obama may not be the better candidate but I think he is liked a whole hell of a lot more than Hillary.. and in the end people vote for who they like.

I hope McCain loses tomorrow..

I don't think anyone can disagree with me. You can go ahead and close the thread since we are all in agreement
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Old 01-28-08, 10:17 PM
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Tomorrow - Florida!
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Old 01-28-08, 10:18 PM
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Giuliani turned out dozens at a rally today. That's pretty impressive for an all or nothing attempt at the state of Florida.
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Old 01-28-08, 10:20 PM
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Originally Posted by General Zod
My mind was changed last thread. I thought Hillary had a great chance still but now I'm getting more and more doubtful that she will prevail. Obama may not be the better candidate but I think he is liked a whole hell of a lot more than Hillary.. and in the end people vote for who they like.

I hope McCain loses tomorrow..

I don't think anyone can disagree with me. You can go ahead and close the thread since we are all in agreement
Hillary is going to be the Dem nominee. Outwit, outplay, outlast or something like that. She's a survivor. I still seriously doubt she will be able to beat any Republican with a pulse in Nov. though.
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Old 01-28-08, 10:50 PM
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Originally Posted by VinVega
I still seriously doubt she will be able to beat any Republican with a pulse in Nov. though.
That's my problem with her getting the nomination. The Republican could always die or something.

I think you have to keep another Clinton as far away from the presidency as possible. Even if it means taking a chance on another candidate who you don't like who could win.
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Old 01-28-08, 11:17 PM
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I'm still not counting Edwards out of this. I probably should, but I'm not. My virtual money is still on Edwards / McCain.

Please educate me in this part VIII so I can make better picks. I mean, what has to happen, seriously, for the Dems to end up choosing Edwards?

Last edited by Th0r S1mpson; 01-28-08 at 11:21 PM.
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Old 01-28-08, 11:18 PM
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Originally Posted by VinVega
She's a survivor.
Very similar to a cockroach, I might add.
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Old 01-28-08, 11:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Brent L
Someone needs to step up and recap everything that's been said so far.

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Old 01-28-08, 11:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Thor Simpson
Please educate me in this part VIII so I can make better picks. I mean, what has to happen, seriously, for the Dems to end up choosing Edwards?
Hillary Clinton gets caught in bed with a dead hooker. Barrack Obama gets hit by a bus.
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Old 01-29-08, 12:59 AM
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I haven't read the other threads, but I'll just chime in with my thoughts. Edwards has no shot. I think Edwards is also a spoiler for Obama. I'd love to see Obama in the White House, but I think Edwards is sucking up his votes right now and after super Tuesday, when Edwards finally decides to quit, and his supporters move to Obama, it'll be too late. If Edwards wasn't in the race at this point, I'm pretty sure Obama would be beating Hillary in the polls.

I guess I'd support Hillary over any of the Republicans at this point, but I really hate the idea of this country being run by two families for 28 years.
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Old 01-29-08, 07:49 AM
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The 'analysts' are all over the block as to where the evangelical vote is going to go in FL.

Some argue that evangelicals don't trust McCain and will therefore vote for Romney.

Others say they will hold their nose and vote for McCain rather than vote for Romney.

Joe Scarborough (not an analyst but a hack) assures us that the evangelical vote will go for Romney. Of course Joe has been know to be as changeable as the weather. It wasn't 2 weeks ago when he was saying that Guiliani's 'wait until FL' strategy was working.

There's dispute among them where the Giuliani vote will go.
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Old 01-29-08, 07:52 AM
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I guess I'd support Hillary over any of the Republicans at this point, but I really hate the idea of this country being run by two families for 28 years.
That doesn't upset me.

What I'm concerned about is what programs and ideas a president is going to offer & really push for.
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Old 01-29-08, 08:25 AM
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Speaking of Giuliani, have you'll seen his campaign ad in FL where he 'highlights' his lack of endorsements from the media?

I thought it was pretty effective - a little late - but effective.
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Old 01-29-08, 08:33 AM
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I see where Romney states flatly that he won't be the VP in a McCain presidency.

Newflash for Mitt: You won't be invited to join the ticket.
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Old 01-29-08, 08:51 AM
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I think McCain will try to pick up Huckabee or another well known social conservative. It's his only shot.


I think the VP choices are going to be more important this year than ever. In fact, it would probably push one or the other over the top if they'd just go ahead and name their choice.
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Old 01-29-08, 09:01 AM
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Originally Posted by monkeyboy
I guess I'd support Hillary over any of the Republicans at this point, but I really hate the idea of this country being run by two families for 28 years.
What specifically do you not like about Ron Paul? I'm curious because I'm undecided (I don't like anyone), but I find myself agreeing with Paul more than anyone else.
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Old 01-29-08, 09:07 AM
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Originally Posted by monkeyboy
I haven't read the other threads, but I'll just chime in with my thoughts. Edwards has no shot. I think Edwards is also a spoiler for Obama. I'd love to see Obama in the White House, but I think Edwards is sucking up his votes right now and after super Tuesday, when Edwards finally decides to quit, and his supporters move to Obama, it'll be too late. If Edwards wasn't in the race at this point, I'm pretty sure Obama would be beating Hillary in the polls.
As I've been saying for quite a while now - Edwards wants to be Kingmaker and will hold out as long as possible to be in that position.

Edwards eyes a brokered convention

Former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) has his sights set on playing kingmaker at the Denver convention in August, one of his most senior campaign officials hinted Monday.

While dismissing suggestions that this implied Edwards had accepted he was out of contention for the nomination, Deputy Campaign Manager Jonathan Prince said the candidate would probably get enough delegates to play a decisive role in tipping the Democratic nomination under party rules.

Party insiders could also give Edwards the nomination at a brokered convention if they judged him more electable in a match-up against GOP front-runner Sen. John McCain (Ariz.). “At a brokered convention, all bets are off,” said Prince.

Prince told reporters in a conference call that in “a worst-case scenario” Edwards would control 20 to 25 percent of the Democratic delegates heading into the convention. He predicted that Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) would each have 35 to 40 percent of the delegates, well short of half the 4,049 needed to win the nomination.

The race could leave Obama and Clinton with nearly the same number of delegates because complex rules would divide delegates evenly among candidates who win more than 30 percent in the congressional districts that make up each state.

Spokesmen for the Obama and Clinton campaigns did not respond to requests for comment.

Many political observers believe that if Edwards had the power to pick the Democratic nominee and could not grab the nomination for himself, he would throw his support to Obama. During a memorable exchange at a Democratic debate in New Hampshire this month, Edwards sided with Obama as a fellow candidate of change and drew a sharp contrast with Clinton, whom he has labeled a candidate of the status quo.

Prince argued that since nearly 800 of the delegates are so-called superdelegates and thus not bound by the results of any state primary or caucus, a candidate would have to get 60 percent of all the delegates in play to be assured of the nomination.

Prince said that Obama or Clinton would have to win nearly 80 percent of the vote in many congressional districts around the country in order to win the nomination outright — a difficult achievement considering how competitive the race has been so far.

Edwards’s campaign manager, David Bonior, said on a conference call with reporters, “We have a great shot to pick up a lot of delegates.”

But he refused to say on the conference call how Edwards would wield his delegates: “We’re not going to talk about how we’re going to use our delegates.”

Stephen Wayne, a political science professor at Georgetown University who specializes in presidential primary politics, said Edwards could help decide the nomination. “If Obama and Clinton come out even after Super Tuesday and Edwards had 50 delegates, Edwards could make a difference if [superdelegates] are split,” said Wayne. “Edwards is not going to drop out if he can have an impact.”

At the Democratic convention this August, delegates will be allowed to vote freely even if they are already pledged to a candidate, Wayne explained. But he expected that Edwards’s delegates would do his bidding.

Wayne said that Edwards’s delegates have been “hand-picked” because of their loyalty.

“That loyalty would probably extend to the convention, though Democrats have a rule that would not impose loyalty,” he explained.

Wayne, however, predicted that either Clinton or Obama would probably wrap up the nomination before the convention, but conceded “anything is possible.”
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Old 01-29-08, 09:07 AM
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Huckabee would help McCain with the evangelical vote.

Would it be enough?

Iraq & the economy are probably going to decide the election - IMO.
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Old 01-29-08, 09:09 AM
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Originally Posted by mosquitobite
I think the VP choices are going to be more important this year than ever. In fact, it would probably push one or the other over the top if they'd just go ahead and name their choice.
Nobody votes for the vice president. Especially after the last 8 years where the position has been so marginalized.
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Old 01-29-08, 09:11 AM
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btw: Do you see any reason why the Democrats chose Denver as the place to hold their convention?

I'm certain it was merely a coincidence.

btw: I put a little more trust in what party professionals say that I do some political science professor.
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Old 01-29-08, 09:53 AM
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Originally Posted by General Zod
Especially after the last 8 years where the position has been so marginalized.
This is a joke, right?
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Old 01-29-08, 09:56 AM
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Prince told reporters in a conference call that in “a worst-case scenario” Edwards would control 20 to 25 percent of the Democratic delegates heading into the convention.
No way. Senator Edwards winds up with 15% of the delegates, tops. Still enough to make him knigmaker if things break correctly, but no way does he have 25 percent.

He also isn't going to end up with the nomination, even in a brokered convention. The voters had their chance for John Edwards and they declined. The party insiders aren't going to turn around and hand the nomination to him due to perceived electability. Odds are that Senator Edwards will line up behind one of the two front runners and that person will become the nominee. If that doesn't happen, the next step will be to turn the Edwards delegates loose and see if they naturally gravitate toward one candidate or the other. In the unlikely event that even then, neither candidate can get a majority of the delegates, at that point they'll start looking for someone other than Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

The other big wildcard is that if we head into convention season without a winner, there's going to be a lot of demand for Vice President Gore to throw his hat into the ring of a brokered convention. If Vice President Gore makes noises like he'd accept the nomination, it becomes far more likely that Senator Edwards (and his delegates) refuse to line up behind either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama.
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Old 01-29-08, 09:57 AM
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Yeah - General Zod, that was a joke, wasn't it?
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