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The Thirty Percenters

Old 04-28-07, 01:05 PM
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The Thirty Percenters

I frankly have never understood Bush's approval ratings. He's pretty much hovered around 30-40% since Katrina... and God knows, he's earned every bit of that rating. But it's never dropped below that core 30%, and you see basically that same level of support across the board.

My question is: who are these people? Last night, Bill Mahr posited that there was an obvious link between the President's approval ratings and the polls that show that 25% of Americans believe that the Rapture will happen this year. There's no denying that there's still core support for the President from the fundamentalist camp, but that can't make up the full 30%.

Another answer (for me) comes from a recent CBS News/NY Times poll, which showed his approval ratings at 32%. They then broke that down by political party:

<table bgcolor=silver border=1><tr><td width=200></td><td width=50>Approve</td><td width=50>Disapprove</td><td width=50>Unsure</td></tr><tr><td>Republicans</td><td align=center>76%</td><td align=center>19%</td><td align=center>5%</td></tr><tr><td>Democrats</td><td align=center>11%</td><td align=center>85%</td><td align=center>4%</td></tr><tr><td>Independents</td><td align=center>24%</td><td align=center>65%</td><td align=center>11%</td></tr></table>

Obviously, the independent numbers look about right... and it's understandable that the Democrats polled would be much more critical of Bush's job performance. But 76% of Republicans approving of the job he's done? That seems incredibly high to me. I know quite a number of Republicans (I live in a very red state), and most of them -- probably 65-70% -- concede that Bush is a complete tool. They hate the alternative even more, but there's no way they think the President is doing that great a job.

So what is this? Are the Republicans polled just lying about their true feelings? Is there really that level of support among GOP voters? Is there some deeper explanation? In general, how do you explain the thirty percent of the population who seem determined to stick by Bush, thick or thin?
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Old 04-28-07, 01:21 PM
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Funny because I've had the opposite experience. I know a lot of Republicans (coming from a red state as well) and many would say they would disapprove of Bush if polled. They still like him and would vote for him, but since he isn't doing everything they think he should, they'd give him a disapproval. I guess they are the ones who see him as the lesser of two evils.


On the Republicans in the poll you mentioned...I think many are best described as "fanboys". They want their team to win no matter what and will always support their team. I think the same is true on the Dem side. No matter who is in office and what they do, if they are a Dem, there will be a group of people that will support them.
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Old 04-28-07, 03:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Venusian
On the Republicans in the poll you mentioned...I think many are best described as "fanboys". They want their team to win no matter what and will always support their team. I think the same is true on the Dem side. No matter who is in office and what they do, if they are a Dem, there will be a group of people that will support them.
I think that's exactly right. No president will ever poll at 100% or 0% because there is a certain core (on both sides of the aisle) who will never disapprove of "their guy" and will never approve of "the other guy." The question I wonder about is where the floor and the ceiling truly are. The lowest I've seen President Bush poll is 28%. Can he do worse? Is there some portion of that 28% who could be persuaded that he is doing a bad job? Likewise, does that imply the best he could do is in the neighborhood of 72%?

Actually, I thik he hit 90% after 9/11, but I'm not sure that counts because the circumstances were so unusual.
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Old 04-28-07, 03:22 PM
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I think I read somewhere that ~30% of people are retarded.
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Old 04-28-07, 06:05 PM
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Originally Posted by TheMadMonk
I think I read somewhere that ~30% of people are retarded.
It's thinking like this that still has 30% of the people supporting the president. Who is going to change their mind if the other side is calling them retarded?

You Sir, are what is wrong with politics
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Old 04-28-07, 07:11 PM
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Originally Posted by IMRICKJAMES
It's thinking like this that still has 30% of the people supporting the president. Who is going to change their mind if the other side is calling them retarded?

You Sir, are what is wrong with politics
No, no... I think what he meant was that only someone that was completely retarded would continue to approve of the job the President was doing.
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Old 04-28-07, 07:17 PM
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It's one thing to concede in private to a friend that the leader of your party is a tool
it's another to do so in a national poll that might have repercussions for your party down the road
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Old 04-28-07, 07:21 PM
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Originally Posted by NCMojo
So what is this? Are the Republicans polled just lying about their true feelings? Is there really that level of support among GOP voters? Is there some deeper explanation? In general, how do you explain the thirty percent of the population who seem determined to stick by Bush, thick or thin?
Well it could be something like this: when you have one side being SO rabid, SO manic, SO forcefull in their opinions, many people have the tendency just to shut down and go the other way. Those people could be 30%.

Just a thought...

Last edited by nodeerforamonth; 04-28-07 at 07:25 PM.
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Old 04-28-07, 07:28 PM
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Originally Posted by nodeerforamonth
Well it could be something like this: when you have one side being SO rabid, SO manic, SO forcefull in their opinions, many people have the tendency just to shut down and go the other way. Those people could be 30%.

Just a thought...
Interesting. Could you elaborate on this thought?
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Old 04-28-07, 07:38 PM
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Originally Posted by NCMojo
No, no... I think what he meant was that only someone that was completely retarded would continue to approve of the job the President was doing.
You missed my point. What I was saying was no one is going to change their mind if the other side is calling them retarded. Like if someone is supporting the president right now, and your kind of wavering and don't really know what to believe in do you really think they are going to switch sides and join a group of people that was calling them retarded for having the views they had. You aren't going to get people to change their minds by calling them names. What does that accomplish? If the opposition acted different that 30% would be a lot smaller
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Old 04-28-07, 07:51 PM
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So both of you are saying that a significant portion of the 30 Percenters don't really support the President, or approve of the job he's doing -- they're just responding to the actions and the attitudes of the left-wing?
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Old 04-28-07, 08:14 PM
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Those 30% are a lot less dangerous than those who make up the rabid left who are cheering against the US just because of the initial after the president's name.
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Old 04-28-07, 08:55 PM
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Originally Posted by NCMojo
So both of you are saying that a significant portion of the 30 Percenters don't really support the President, or approve of the job he's doing -- they're just responding to the actions and the attitudes of the left-wing?
No, what I'm saying is theres no shot of them ever changing sides because of the actions and attitudes of the left-wing. That doesn't mean that they don't support the President right now, it means that a lot of the Dems and the vast majority of left-wingers have become such lunatic anti-Bush fanatics that they can't ever see themselves supporting the opposition. For example, I'm a Republican and I support Bush. People calling everyone that supports Bush retarded, and people calling Bush Satan, or burning troops in effigy because they don't like the Iraq War, or talking about x, y and z the worst abuses of the Constitution ever, seeing once mostly middle of the road people like Harry Reid go nuts, people talking about how the US is this evil imperialist place, rooting for us to lose purely because of politics etc. etc. all the pointless rhetoric...that doesn't make me pause and think to myself hmmm maybe I should rethink this...maybe they're right.
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Old 04-28-07, 09:02 PM
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Originally Posted by nodeerforamonth
Well it could be something like this: when you have one side being SO rabid, SO manic, SO forcefull in their opinions, many people have the tendency just to shut down and go the other way. Those people could be 30%.

Just a thought...
That could also be used to explain why enough people have crossed over to make up that other 70%, because of a group of people so rabid, so forceful, so manic, so steadfast in the belief that to take even the slightest bit of responsibility for what they've done wrong is showing weakness...

Personally, though, I just think that there's about 30% on each side of the political fence that has completely bought into their respective party's rhetoric that the other side is always evil, always wrong, etc etc etc.

Last edited by MovieExchange; 04-29-07 at 01:01 AM.
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Old 04-28-07, 09:50 PM
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I guess here's my point. Right now, I don't see any way anyone can objectively support the President, based on the actions of his administration. If you look simply at the facts on the table -- not the shouted slogans of the rabblerousers, not any suppositions, but just the facts that are in no way in dispute -- this has been a pretty disastrous six years. About the only thing you can hang your hat on is that there has not been a terrorist strike in the United States since 9/11... and I don't know, maybe that's enough. Or maybe you think we've been at war against Muslim fundamentalists for years, and we've just now gotten a President who's willing to do something about it.

(Of course, I think both of those views are pretty myopic... but I don't want to dismiss or disparage them in this discussion.)

I still feel like there are many more people that are pro-GOP or anti-Democrat than pro-Bush, even among the Thirty Percenters.
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Old 04-28-07, 10:23 PM
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Maybe some people feel that saying that the President is doing a bad job is admitting weakness?
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Old 04-28-07, 10:36 PM
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but just the facts that are in no way in dispute -- this has been a pretty disastrous six years. About the only thing you can hang your hat on is that there has not been a terrorist strike in the United States since 9/11... and I don't know, maybe that's enough. Or maybe you think we've been at war against Muslim fundamentalists for years, and we've just now gotten a President who's willing to do something about it.
Pretty funny coming from you after your posts arguing with dave in the "Guiliani warns...." thread.

Let's examine the facts shall we:

1. Pretty much full employment.
2. Pretty much solid economic growth. This coming on the heels of a devastating attack on the US and the US economy.
3. Lower taxes and increased revenues to the treasury.
4. Record home ownership.

My disappointments with Bush:
1. Trying to make nice with the dems (and some reps) who are out to figuratively kill and disembowel Bush
2. Illeagal alien amnesty.
3. Having the rules of enemy engagement set by a bunch of lawyers(for example, not killing a bunch of Taliban because they were attending a funeral in a cemetary in Afghanistan).
4. Not declaring that we are fighting Islamofasists over and over again despite the terrorist enalbers at CAIR.
5. Signing the bloated spending bills passed by the GOP when they controlled the congress.
6. Signing the free-speech restriction act otherwise known as Campaign Finance Rerorm.
7. Signing an Education Bill that was basically written by a Kennedy.
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Old 04-28-07, 10:55 PM
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Originally Posted by NCMojo
I guess here's my point. Right now, I don't see any way anyone can objectively support the President, based on the actions of his administration. If you look simply at the facts on the table -- not the shouted slogans of the rabblerousers, not any suppositions, but just the facts that are in no way in dispute -- this has been a pretty disastrous six years. About the only thing you can hang your hat on is that there has not been a terrorist strike in the United States since 9/11... and I don't know, maybe that's enough. Or maybe you think we've been at war against Muslim fundamentalists for years, and we've just now gotten a President who's willing to do something about it.

(Of course, I think both of those views are pretty myopic... but I don't want to dismiss or disparage them in this discussion.)

I still feel like there are many more people that are pro-GOP or anti-Democrat than pro-Bush, even among the Thirty Percenters.
More examples of what I hate about politics these days. You don't see any way anyone can objectively support the president? Real classy

I'm sure your objections over the Iraq War have absolutely nothing to do with painting all the actions of the administration as 'pretty disasterous'
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Old 04-29-07, 12:07 AM
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2. Pretty much solid economic growth. This coming on the heels of a devastating attack on the US and the US economy.
4. Record home ownership.
2. Did you miss these reports yesterday about the country's GDP (growth) being at its weakest in four years?
4. Record number of home ownerships now becoming record number of foreclosures.
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Old 04-29-07, 12:13 AM
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Q: How do you know if you're a 30 percenter?
A: You think there's only one group of 30 percenters.

das
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Old 04-29-07, 02:15 AM
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So from what I gather from the responses in this thread, the 30% supporters are sticking with Bush merely out of spite. Yeah, that seems about right.
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Old 04-29-07, 03:27 AM
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Three groups of poeple: You've got your die-hard supporters on both sides, and you've got those in the middle who call em as they see em. That's the way I see it.
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Old 04-29-07, 03:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Numanoid
So from what I gather from the responses in this thread, the 30% supporters are sticking with Bush merely out of spite. Yeah, that seems about right.
No

The 'spite' you talk about being the reason for sticking with Bush only strengthens support I already have and ends any thought of ever changing. News flash! Thinking that you are clever by making a protest sign that say BU$H or BU(swastika)H is evil, an imperialistic pig, a nazi, the devil, etc etc. is only self serving. I can think of a 100 different things like this that go way beyond normal political discourse. The Democrats could accomplish more by distancing themselves from this type of rabid Anti-Bushies, the moveon.org crowd, and all the fringe left...but instead they are moving closer and closer to them. It will bite them in the ass in the end. Yeah, that seems about right.
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Old 04-29-07, 06:18 AM
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2. Did you miss these reports yesterday about the country's GDP (growth) being at its weakest in four years?
Yet at this point it's still growth, which is better than decline. We'll see what the future holds though...
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Old 04-29-07, 07:45 AM
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Originally Posted by nemein
Yet at this point it's still growth, which is better than decline. We'll see what the future holds though...
Not only is it growth but its almost pointless to overanalyze quarter numbers. It's too small of a timeframe to show the economy as a whole. Its like calling Albert Pujols washed up because he's batting .250 through april.
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