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The MAIN Iran Thread: Eventual Confrontation

Old 02-12-07, 01:56 AM
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The MAIN Iran Thread: Eventual Confrontation

It appears as if some in Washington DC are slowly but surely building more evidence and justification to conduct a military operation against Iran. When it's going to happen, how many US forces will be involved, and just what type of operation this is going to be, will not be conveyed at this time, but I thought it would be interesting to have a thread that leads up to the eventual confrontation with Iran as I now believe it is imminent and will probably happen this year.

I'll start by this news article:

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNe...15126220070212

By Ibon Villelabeitia

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Officials of the U.S.-led coalition on Sunday showed what they said were examples of Iranian weapons used to kill 170 of their soldiers and implicated high-level Iranian involvement in training Iraqi militants.

A senior defense official from the U.S.-led Multinational Force in Baghdad told a briefing that 170 coalition troops had been killed by Iranian-made roadside bombs known as explosively formed penetrators (EFPs) that he said were smuggled into Iraq.

Officials showed reporters fragments of what they said were Iranian-manufactured weapons, including one part of an EFP -- which is strong enough to penetrate the armor of an Abrams tank -- and parts of 81 mm and 60 mm mortar bombs.

The United States accuses Iran of fanning violence in Iraq by giving sophisticated bomb-making technology, money and training to militant Shi'ite groups, some of whom have links with Iraq's Shi'ite-led government. Iran denies the allegation.

The three defense officials spoke on condition they not be identified.

Washington has hardened its rhetoric over Iran's alleged role in the war in Iraq and tension has been growing between the two arch-foes over Tehran's nuclear plans.

"The weapons had characteristics unique to being manufactured in Iran...Iran is the only country in the region that produces these weapons," the senior defense official said.

The officials said they were showing the evidence, including a slide of an Iranian-made shoulder-launched surface-to-air missile, out of concern over a vast increase in weapons used by Iraqi militants against U.S. forces in 2006.

"We assess these activities are coming from the highest levels of the Iranian government," said the senior defense analyst, referring to the alleged training of Iraqi militants by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Qods Force.

The U.S. military has seized several Iranians in Iraq in the past two months, including five in the northern city of Arbil on suspicion that they are members of the Qods Force.

Iran does not officially acknowledge the group's existence but the analyst said it reports directly to Iran's top authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Despite the briefing, the senior defense analyst said there was no "smoking gun" linking Tehran and Iraqi militants and Iraqi smugglers were bringing in the components.

Tehran blames U.S. soldiers for the violence in Iraq and for inflaming tension between majority Shi'ites and once-dominant Sunni Arabs.

"We are a friend of Iraq. We have common culture and history, and Iraq's stability, security and integrity, means Iran's stability, security and integrity," Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told a rally in Tehran on Sunday marking the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution.

The officials also said Iran had several surrogate groups operating in Iraq using EFPs, among them rogue elements of radical Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army. Those elements were getting weapons and guerrilla warfare training.

The Pentagon calls the Mehdi Army the biggest threat to peace in Iraq. Sadr, who is a key political ally of the Iraqi prime minister, denies any involvement in attacks on troops.

Non-Arab, Shi'ite Iran resumed diplomatic relations with Iraq after Saddam Hussein was removed from power by the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.

Washington, which says Tehran is seeking to build a nuclear bomb under the cover of an atomic energy program, has an aircraft carrier group stationed in the Gulf and is sending a second. Tehran says its nuclear program has civilian goals.

President George W. Bush has said he has no intention of invading Iran.

However, some war critics say the Bush administration's language on Iran echoes comments made leading up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

The main justification given for that operation was that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, but the weapons were never found and Washington later blamed faulty intelligence.

Given the criticism that dogs Bush over the handling of the intelligence, U.S. officials have been careful in preparing the dossier to support claims that Iran is meddling in Iraq.

Elsewhere, Iraq's Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said Iraqi forces would step up their deployment in Baghdad this week as part of a U.S.-backed offensive against militants.

In fresh violence, a suicide bomber driving a truck packed with explosives killed at least 15 people when he attacked a police station north of Baghdad.

(Additional reporting by Ross Colvin and Mariam Karouny in Baghdad and Edmund Blair in Tehran)
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Old 02-12-07, 02:07 AM
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Why not? We've got two unfinished wars going, might as well throw a third into the mix.
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Old 02-12-07, 02:33 AM
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7 years ago, if I'd read this article, I'd think - ok, we have to do something about Iran.

This afternoon, as I was reading this, I was thinking - ok, is this real evidence or evidence we want to make real.

That's what George Bush's reign has done to me.
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Old 02-12-07, 04:40 AM
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I think any sane person has to recognize that the war in Iraq and the rhetoric simultenously directed against Iran (e.g. Iran was in the "Axis of Evil" a looonnng time ago.) have both done their part to create tense relations with Iran. Iran isn't blameless either, but this most certainly is not a case of unilateral aggression on the part of Iran.

Maybe the U.S. army could support an aerial bombardment campaign even if a ground invasion is out of the question. However, can the U.S. economy support a third war, especially one that will most likely drive oil prices through the roof? Personally I'd like to think that Bush would be impeached on the spot if he tried to start a war with Iran using the same tactics he used to invade Iraq.
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Old 02-12-07, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Nutter
I think any sane person has to recognize that the war in Iraq and the rhetoric simultenously directed against Iran (e.g. Iran was in the "Axis of Evil" a looonnng time ago.) have both done their part to create tense relations with Iran. Iran isn't blameless either, but this most certainly is not a case of unilateral aggression on the part of Iran.

Agreed. We all know that there was NEVER any tension with Iran during the thirty years prior to GWB's presidency...all the tensions with Iran started once GWB put them as part of the Axis of Evil. In fact, until they were blindsided in that speech, they were one of our friends.
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Old 02-12-07, 11:52 AM
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Originally Posted by ukywyldcat
Agreed. We all know that there was NEVER any tension with Iran during the thirty years prior to GWB's presidency...all the tensions with Iran started once GWB put them as part of the Axis of Evil. In fact, until they were blindsided in that speech, they were one of our friends.
Yes... I see where I went wrong. I used the phrase "create tense relations" where I should have said "ramp tensions up hardcore". Thankyou, Mr. Literal.
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Old 02-12-07, 12:23 PM
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Iran is a serious concern, but frankly, I don't trust this administration to deal with them in a successful manner. I would be very hesitant to be gung ho behind any military plans the Bush administration has in mind WRT Iran.
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Old 02-12-07, 03:16 PM
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I think we're going to hear from Iran first on any kind of operation. For some reason I'm assuming any actions against Iran in the next few years are going to be covert actions, and once again, we will be left out in the dark. Iran will be the ones who will go public and then the US will follow shortly behind saying, "Nuhuh! They lie! We went in there to get dah terroristses. What? We didn't inform the public? Well, why should we? We're protecting you so it's better you don't know..."
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Old 02-12-07, 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted by DVD Polizei
I think we're going to hear from Iran first on any kind of operation. For some reason I'm assuming any actions against Iran in the next few years are going to be covert actions, and once again, we will be left out in the dark. Iran will be the ones who will go public and then the US will follow shortly behind saying, "Nuhuh! They lie! We went in there to get dah terroristses. What? We didn't inform the public? Well, why should we? We're protecting you so it's better you don't know..."
No no no no no. I don't buy any of that.
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Old 02-12-07, 03:50 PM
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So, you think Bush has the audacity to say we're going to initiate a conflict in Iran too? I suspect he'll use his Patriot Act Powers and do it behind the scenes. And at worst, we'll have the Bush Administration create a crisis. He must want oil prices to go above $100 a barrel.

Last edited by DVD Polizei; 02-12-07 at 03:59 PM.
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Old 02-12-07, 04:32 PM
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I think we're just sabre rattling to Iran just like they do to us. I don't think Bush has any intentions of going into Iran. Would be much easier to green light Israel.
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Old 02-12-07, 04:43 PM
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I'd be shocked if we're not running operations into Iran now. How long did the US deny running operations into Cambodia during the Vietnam War?
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Old 02-12-07, 05:43 PM
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The US will destroy the nuclear plants in Iran using air strikes. The justification is that Iran is supporting terrorists.

And even although I strongly disapprove with Bush and its Iraq strategy, I would approve the above.

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Old 02-12-07, 05:57 PM
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I prefer a liberal view where we do nothing. It would have worked out better for Iraq, so let's do the same here. Personally, I think we are better off just nuking them if they start something and not starting something ourselves. We should give them the opportunity to show us just how civilized they are....or we nuke them.
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Old 02-12-07, 06:47 PM
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Originally Posted by kvrdave
I prefer a liberal view where we do nothing. It would have worked out better for Iraq, so let's do the same here. Personally, I think we are better off just nuking them if they start something and not starting something ourselves. We should give them the opportunity to show us just how civilized they are....or we nuke them.
I'm with the "let's go ahead and nuke them" crowd.
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Old 02-12-07, 07:04 PM
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Originally Posted by kvrdave
I prefer a liberal view where we do nothing. It would have worked out better for Iraq, so let's do the same here. Personally, I think we are better off just nuking them if they start something and not starting something ourselves. We should give them the opportunity to show us just how civilized they are....or we nuke them.
If Iran initiated something overt, they deserve to get nuked.
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Old 02-12-07, 07:07 PM
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Oh good, we're already talking about nuking a country and killing lots of people.
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Old 02-12-07, 07:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Ranger
Oh good, we're already talking about nuking a country and killing lots of people.
We always talk about that here. Would you be opposed to responding if we were attacked by a country?

I'm against pre-emptive action. It does more harm than good for us, but responding with an all out attack if we're attacked is another story.
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Old 02-12-07, 07:16 PM
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What are the odds that Iran would attack us - on U.S. soil?

Being the isolationist, that is all that concerns me.
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Old 02-12-07, 08:01 PM
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The worst we have to fear from Iran is them putting water in the oil they ship to us.
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Old 02-12-07, 09:21 PM
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I don't believe that even the Bush administration, as prone to foreign policy mistakes as it has been, will provoke a military confrontation with Iran.
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Old 02-12-07, 09:36 PM
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Simply create a special ops from an assortment of the better Iraqi-trained folk, and you have, ladies and gentlemen, plausible deniability. True, Israel could be the pawn for an Iran confrontation, but I doubt it. At least at this point.
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Old 02-12-07, 09:49 PM
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Saudi Arabia has done exactly that (the intention of wiping the US off the map--just after 9/11 by the way) and Bush hugs them like they were his lost siblings. So, Vandelay, your enemy is not those who criticize or question, it is your leader. Your leader is sending you on a wild terrorist goose chase, making people like you think Iraq is a solution, when it is far from, and isn't even part of the terrorist world which wants the US destroyed. Well, at least it wasn't until Bush fucked up there anyway.

Why is it that you support the President who is supporting Saudi Arabia--the worst country in the Middle East to support and I mean THEE worst--but you don't recognize this and blame "those democrats or liberals".
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Old 02-12-07, 11:18 PM
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I agree, it will take more terrorist attacks on US soil and many thousands more dead in order for our leaders to have no political boundaries to fight terrorism and possibly win the upper hand.
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Old 02-13-07, 01:17 AM
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Why is it that you support the President who is supporting Saudi Arabia--the worst country in the Middle East to support and I mean THEE worst--but you don't recognize this and blame "those democrats or liberals".
The reason is obvious - OIL!

The Saudi Royal Family is committed to the free flow of oil from the Persian Gulf.

Oil that the United States and the western democracies sorely need.
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