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East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

Old 11-23-05, 12:25 AM
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East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

Is this guy serious?

http://www.insightmag.com/Media/Medi...eastasia_1.htm

The overwhelming assessment by Asian officials, diplomats and analysts is that the U.S. military simply cannot defeat China. It has been an assessment relayed to U.S. government officials over the past few months by countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. This comes as President Bush wraps up a visit to Asia, in which he sought to strengthen U.S. ties with key allies in the region.

Most Asian officials have expressed their views privately. Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara has gone public, warning that the United States would lose any war with China.

"In any case, if tension between the United States and China heightens, if each side pulls the trigger, though it may not be stretched to nuclear weapons, and the wider hostilities expand, I believe America cannot win as it has a civic society that must adhere to the value of respecting lives," Mr. Ishihara said in an address to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Mr. Ishihara said U.S. ground forces, with the exception of the Marines, are "extremely incompetent" and would be unable to stem a Chinese conventional attack. Indeed, he asserted that China would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against Asian and American cities—even at the risk of a massive U.S. retaliation.

The governor said the U.S. military could not counter a wave of millions of Chinese soldiers prepared to die in any onslaught against U.S. forces. After 2,000 casualties, he said, the U.S. military would be forced to withdraw.


"Therefore, we need to consider other means to counter China," he said. "The step we should be taking against China, I believe, is economic containment."

Officials acknowledge that Mr. Ishihara's views reflect the widespread skepticism of U.S. military capabilities in such countries as Australia, India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. They said the U.S.-led war in Iraq has pointed to the American weakness in low-tech warfare.

"When we can't even control parts of Anbar, they get the message loud and clear," an official said, referring to the flashpoint province in western Iraq.

As a result, Asian allies of the United States are quietly preparing to bolster their militaries independent of Washington. So far, the Bush administration has been strongly opposed to an indigenous Japanese defense capability, fearing it would lead to the expulsion of the U.S. military presence from that country.

On Nov. 16, Mr. Bush met with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. The two leaders discussed the realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan and Tokyo's troop deployment in Iraq.

During his visit to Washington in early November, Mr. Ishihara met senior U.S. defense officials. They included talks with U.S. Defense Deputy Undersecretary for Asian and Pacific Affairs Richard Lawless to discuss the realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan.

For his part, Mr. Ishihara does not see China as evolving into a stable democracy with free elections.

"I believe such predictions are totally wrong," Mr. Ishihara said.
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Old 11-23-05, 04:03 AM
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We could nuke them into oblivion and they would nuke us back, or basically flatten the major cities via airpower, but somehow World War III doesn't equal "win" to me.

Any war with China would be a "loss" IMO, to both sides. Nobody would "win", just a lot of people would die.
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Old 11-23-05, 05:14 AM
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After 2,000 casualties, he said, the U.S. military would be forced to withdraw.
That is the growing sentiment around the world and our reaction to Iraq is either going to confirm or break that opinion, I know which way I would prefer it to go.

Overall I think it depends upon why/how we end up in a war w/ China and who is allied on which side. I very much doubt we could capture/occupy a significant portion of their country and vice versa. If talking just about conventional arms it would be hard to say, we have the better equipment but they have the raw man power (and I don't think the disparity between equipment is all that great except when comparing navies). If talking about nukes it's no contest we'd flatten them and probably end up killing off a good chunk of Korea and Japan to boot depending upon which was the fallout went out. Overall though I agree w/ GreenMonkey (and WHOPER ) "the only winning move is not to play".
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Old 11-23-05, 05:23 AM
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The US knows this, the Chinese knows this. I believe this will fall in to the category of "mutually assured destruction" as there will never be a ground war with China.
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Old 11-23-05, 07:08 AM
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Of course if we did go to war with China, it would be over Taiwan. China would probably suffer some horrendous casualties trying to get to the island.
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Old 11-23-05, 07:21 AM
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The governor said the U.S. military could not counter a wave of millions of Chinese soldiers prepared to die in any onslaught against U.S. forces. After 2,000 casualties, he said, the U.S. military would be forced to withdraw.
With all due respect to Mr. Shintaro Ishihara, he's out of his freakin' mind. If we were forced into a war with anyone, you can bet millions of Americans will be lining up to fight. We're divided over a war of choice right now, but when forced into a fight the US is as fierce as any nation on the planet.
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Old 11-23-05, 07:25 AM
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We're divided over a war of choice right now, but when forced into a fight the US is as fierce as any nation on the planet.
I think that used to be the case... I think it would take a direct attack on the homeland by an invading army to get anywhere near that level of 'cohesion' again though. Even then it would probably depend upon who was invading us and why. IMHO the rifts in the country are starting to run very deep.

Last edited by nemein; 11-23-05 at 07:28 AM.
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Old 11-23-05, 07:26 AM
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Originally Posted by GreenMonkey
We could nuke them into oblivion and they would nuke us back, or basically flatten the major cities via airpower, but somehow World War III doesn't equal "win" to me.

Any war with China would be a "loss" IMO, to both sides. Nobody would "win", just a lot of people would die.
Just how are they going to nuke us?
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Old 11-23-05, 07:32 AM
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Originally Posted by classicman2
Just how are they going to nuke us?
They aren't completely w/o capability http://www.thebulletin.org/article_n...ofn=nd03norris but whether they can hit the US homeland (as in 48 states, Hawaii and Alaska might be different) seems to be up for debate (by missile I don't think so yet but bomber/sub maybe). Speaking of which haven't they recently started a new sub program as well?
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Old 11-23-05, 07:47 AM
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Here we go go again.

We vastly overestimated the strength of the soviet military. Please! Let's don't make that mistake again.
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Old 11-23-05, 08:00 AM
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Originally Posted by classicman2
Here we go go again.

We vastly overestimated the strength of the soviet military. Please! Let's don't make that mistake again.
Do you have any evidence to present to the contrary?
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Old 11-23-05, 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted by nemein
They aren't completely w/o capability http://www.thebulletin.org/article_n...ofn=nd03norris but whether they can hit the US homeland (as in 48 states, Hawaii and Alaska might be different) seems to be up for debate (by missile I don't think so yet but bomber/sub maybe). Speaking of which haven't they recently started a new sub program as well?
They have a few ballistic missiles capable of reaching American soil. They have 1 SSBN, which the moment it leaves port would be fodder for a Seawolf. Bombers would have to get through a fighter screen all the way from china (i.e., splashed well before California). Our hands would be limited though in a nuclear exchange by fallout over Japan/S. Korea/Russia/India.
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Old 11-23-05, 09:05 AM
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Originally Posted by nemein
I think that used to be the case... I think it would take a direct attack on the homeland by an invading army to get anywhere near that level of 'cohesion' again though. Even then it would probably depend upon who was invading us and why. IMHO the rifts in the country are starting to run very deep.
The country got behind Gulf War I. The country is fully behind Afghanistan. Iraq was the anomoly in my opinion for the main reasons that the opponents are screaming about.

You could call Afghanistan and Gulf War I wars of choice, but they were in response to an attack or an invasion. You give the American public that scenario and they will be behind the effort. I know I would. Iraq was a response to nothing, it was a pre-emption and we don't do well with that kind of justification for war in general.

And they call the liberals the pessimists.
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Old 11-23-05, 09:15 AM
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They aren't completely w/o capability http://www.thebulletin.org/article_..._ofn=nd03norris but whether they can hit the US homeland (as in 48 states, Hawaii and Alaska might be different) seems to be up for debate (by missile I don't think so yet but bomber/sub maybe). Speaking of which haven't they recently started a new sub program as well?
Thanks Bill, you gave the go-ahead to sell the satellite technology to China(over the objections of the Joint Chief of Staffs) in return for campaign contributions.

We'd win if we could give them our media.
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Old 11-23-05, 12:58 PM
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US = NUCLEAR POWER
China = NUCLEAR POWER
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Old 11-23-05, 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted by classicman2
Here we go go again.

We vastly overestimated the strength of the soviet military. Please! Let's don't make that mistake again.
And that brought about the end of the Soviet Union.

I'm afraid the assessment of how weak-kneed we would be is accurate -- if we were defending another country, not if the Chinese attempted to land on our soil. And I doubt the Chinese would attempt to land on our soil.
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Old 11-23-05, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by X
And that brought about the end of the Soviet Union.
And some would argue that it almost bankrupted the U. S.
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Old 11-23-05, 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by classicman2
And some would argue that it almost bankrupted the U. S.
And they would be wrong.
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Old 11-23-05, 01:07 PM
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The country is fully behind Afghanistan.
I wouldn't say fully myself but I guess that's something about living in the thick of things here, we hear all opinions at all times (and yet still somehow the lawmakers don't seem to be able to relate to everyone outside of the beltway ).
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Old 11-23-05, 01:18 PM
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And others would argue that it produced more instability in the world.
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Old 11-23-05, 01:20 PM
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Originally Posted by classicman2
And others would argue that it produced more instability in the world.
That could be a reasonable argument.
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Old 11-23-05, 01:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Trout
Of course if we did go to war with China, it would be over Taiwan. China would probably suffer some horrendous casualties trying to get to the island.
Well, China doesn't appear to be letting the Taiwan thing drop so we may very well see at some point in our lifetime. I just don't think the US will go to war over Taiwan -- too much to lose, too little to gain. I'd think China would get a stern wagging finger of condemnation instead. This is different from Soviet expansion -- China sees Taiwan as part of their country. I have a number of Chinese friends and they see things as analogous (somewhat) to the situation in the US in the 1800's. Part of the country secedes, and even gets recognition from some major countries. But the people in the original country feel strongly that the nation should be kept whole, even if force is needed. It's not a simple matter of: mainland China = communists = bad!!!, Taiwan = democracy = good!!!
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Old 11-23-05, 01:31 PM
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All China has to do is stop production of exports.

But I have to agree somewhat with Ishihara.

It's funny some people think all the other countries bluff about their capabilities. You don't think the US does the same thing?

Everyday US companies think they are getting a great deal in China, China is massing new technologies and increasing their capabilities. One day, they will flex their power, and the US will cringe and capitulate.

That's why I don't like outsourcing. But I will be an old geezer by the time China does anything so I just hope they have socialized benefits.

Last edited by DVD Polizei; 11-23-05 at 01:33 PM.
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Old 11-23-05, 01:38 PM
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It's funny some people think all the other countries bluff about their capabilities. You don't think the US does the same thing.
About our nuclear capabilies - no!
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Old 11-23-05, 01:47 PM
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How many Chinese live in the US anyway.
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