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Poll: Majority backs Bush after election

Old 11-22-04, 04:17 PM
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Poll: Majority backs Bush after election

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/...oll/index.html

(CNN) -- Fifty-five percent of Americans like the way President Bush is handling his job, while the approval rating for his Iraq policies is slightly lower, according to the first full CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll following the November 2 presidential election.

Forty-two percent of those polled don't believe Bush is doing a good job. Sixty percent have a positive opinion of Bush, versus 39 percent with the opposite view.

Many of the poll questions targeted foreign affairs, especially the U.S. performance in Iraq. The responses showed that Bush's positive approval rating does not necessarily translate into a perception of military success, said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Iraqi general elections are set for January 30 to choose a national assembly, a Kurdish assembly and 18 provincial governing councils.

Respondents were divided, with 51 percent saying the Iraqi elections will take place and 42 percent disagreeing.

Forty-nine percent of those surveyed doubt the United States will able to keep Iraq on track toward democratic government, and 46 percent are confident it will be done.

Responding to whether the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, 47 percent said yes, and 51 percent said no.

Asked who was winning the war in Iraq -- the United States and its allies or insurgents -- 46 percent of respondents said neither side, and 44 percent said the United States and its supporters.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

U.S. and Iraqi military forces almost completely control Falluja, considered a hotbed of insurgent activity, but violence has spiked elsewhere. Sixty-one percent of those polled said they feel offensives in Falluja and elsewhere will make Iraq better.

But nearly three-quarters of those polled said they are worried about Iraq, with 35 percent very worried and 39 percent fairly worried.

On other foreign affairs questions:

• 52 percent don't feel Iraqis will accept the election results.

• A majority believe Iran (58 percent) and North Korea (60 percent) represent long-term, but not immediate, threats to the United States. Bush has identified both as part of an "Axis of Evil," citing nuclear threats.

• Nearly two-thirds of respondents feel Israel and the Arab nations will never resolve their differences; 37 percent say they will.

On controversial social questions, 63 percent believe openly gay men and lesbian women should be allowed to serve in the military; 32 percent don't. Forty-three percent oppose both same-sex marriages and civil unions.

Regarding officials in Bush's administration, Secretary of State Colin Powell was most popular among poll respondents, with 87 percent saying they have a favorable impression of him. National security adviser Condoleezza Rice is viewed as favorable by 63 percent; Vice President Dick Cheney by 53 percent; Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, 51 percent; and Attorney General John Ashcroft, 50 percent.

There was strong agreement, 72 percent, that the country is more deeply divided on issues than it has been in the past several years. Respondents also said they believe Americans are divided when it comes to values -- 65 percent say greatly divided, and 34 percent say united.

The survey results were based on telephone interviews with 1,015 adults Friday through Sunday.
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Old 11-22-04, 05:36 PM
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Doesn't really surprise me.

Majority voted for him, too.
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Old 11-22-04, 05:42 PM
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In other news 51 is still greater than 49.
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Old 11-22-04, 06:35 PM
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And Bush still won in 2000.
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Old 11-22-04, 07:11 PM
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too bad it's not yet a mandate
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Old 11-22-04, 07:29 PM
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Originally posted by Myster X
too bad it's not yet a mandate
But good that it's political capital.
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Old 11-22-04, 08:43 PM
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Presidents typically have post election approval ratings 3-5% higher than their popular vote percentage.
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Old 11-22-04, 09:57 PM
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Originally posted by wendersfan
Presidents typically have post election approval ratings 3-5% higher than their popular vote percentage.
Why is this do you think?
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Old 11-23-04, 12:19 AM
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Originally posted by Goldblum
Why is this do you think?
Because the dead Democratic voters are not polled.
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Old 11-23-04, 01:28 AM
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Originally posted by Goldblum
Why is this do you think?
I don't know where wendersfan got his info, but I heard the same thing on the radio today.

Basically, it's one of those 'that's what they say' moments.
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Old 11-23-04, 01:29 AM
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Originally posted by Tommy Ceez
Because the dead Democratic voters are not polled.
Nor the institutionalized ones.
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Old 11-23-04, 04:02 AM
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Re: Poll: Majority backs Bush after election

There are a number of disturbing results from this poll IMO.

Such as...

Originally posted by Myster X
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/...oll/index.html

Respondents were divided, with 51 percent saying the Iraqi elections will take place and 42 percent disagreeing.
And how many think the elections will actually be fair? Hell, I think they'll take place too, but I think they'll be a complete joke.

[46 percent are confident the United States will able to keep Iraq on track toward democratic government.]

Responding to whether the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, 47 percent said yes.
Iraq will NOT become a democracy. Come on, people.

And 47% think it was a mistake to send troops into Iraq? Wow, higher than I expected.

43 percent oppose both same-sex marriages and civil unions.
This is what really bugs me. Conservatives seem incensed by gays using the term "marriage," yet 43% indicates to me that most of them also oppose any kind of civil union.
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Old 11-23-04, 06:50 AM
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Hell, I think they'll take place too, but I think they'll be a complete joke.
Any particular reason? I mean the Afghan election seemed to go ok and while there are still certainly problems there it helped put an Afghan face on them. How sustainable that is remains to be seen of course but that has as much to do w/ the reaction of the international community as well.


Iraq will NOT become a democracy. Come on, people.
Because after all Iraqies/Arabs couldn't possibly understand/want any form of representative gov't right? I certainly don't expect a US style democracy but I'm not sure it's valid to completely write off the possibilty that Iraqies want some sort of say in how they are governed.
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Old 11-23-04, 08:06 AM
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Originally posted by Mutley Hyde
I don't know where wendersfan got his info, but I heard the same thing on the radio today.

Basically, it's one of those 'that's what they say' moments.
I get my data, as always, from Gallup.

Seriously, I did a lot of research on Presidential approval and popularity when I was in grad school. The prevailing opinion about this is that there's a small percentage of people who either didn't vote for President at all, or who voted for the loser, but who want the President to do well, so their support and approval is a type of wishful thinking. They want the President to do a good job, so they try to have a positive attitude about him doing a good job.
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Old 11-23-04, 08:19 AM
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I tend to agree with wendersfan. It's like when you have a tragic accident or event happen with someone you know, who you don't really like. There's this weird bond you still have, and are more accepting of them and are more tolerant, than if you didn't go through the terrible event with them. Sometimes you step aside and wonder why you are defending the person you never liked in the first place, but then remember that tragedy, and then you validate your feelings for them.

Stockholm Syndrome, baby. Or a form of it, at least.
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