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[merged] The Ohio voting results/analysis thread

Old 11-05-04, 11:05 AM
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Some voter demographics from Ohio

Data are from <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html">CNN.</a>
<table border = 1 cellspacing = 1 cellpadding = 1 width = 60%><tr><td bgcolor = #FFFFFF width = 50%><b>Education</b></td><td bgcolor = #FFFFFF><b>Bush</b></td><td bgcolor = #FFFFFF><b>Kerry</b></td>
</tr><tr><td bgcolor = #FF5599>No High School</td><td bgcolor = #FF5599>42%</td><td bgcolor = #FF5599>58%</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor = #FF5599>H.S. Graduate</td><td bgcolor = #FF5599>49%</td><td bgcolor = #FF5599>51%</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>Some College</td><td bgcolor = #7ECOEE>52%</td><td bgcolor = #7ECOEE>48%</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>College Graduate</td><td bgcolor = #7ECOEE>55%</td><td bgcolor = #7ECOEE>45%</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>Postgrad Study</td><td bgcolor = #7ECOEE>51%</td><td bgcolor = #7ECOEE>49%</td></tr></table>

<table border = 1 cellspacing = 1 cellpadding = 1 width = 60%><tr><td bgcolor = #FFFFFF width = 50%><b>Income</td><td bgcolor = #FFFFFF><b>Bush</b></td><td bgcolor = #FFFFFF><b>Kerry</b></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor = #FF5599>Under $15,000</td><td bgcolor = #FF5599>29%</td><td bgcolor = #FF5599>71%</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor = #FF5599>$15-30,000</td><td bgcolor = #FF5599>37%</td><td bgcolor = #FF5599>63%</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor = #FF5599>$30-50,000</td><td bgcolor = #FF5599>49%</td><td bgcolor = #FF5599>50%</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor = #7ECOEE>$50-75,000</td><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>58%</td><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>41%</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>$75-100,000</td><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>55%</td><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>45%</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>$100-150,000</td><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>58%</td><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>42%</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>$150-200,000</td><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>63%</td><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>37%</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor = #FFFFFF>$200,000 or More</td><td bgcolor = #FFFFFF>-</td><td bgcolor = #FFFFFF>-</td></tr></table>

The reason I'm posting this is to counter the argument that Bush voters are "poor, backwards, and stupid".

As always, mods should feel free to merge with an appropriate thread.
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Old 11-05-04, 11:08 AM
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Where are the numbers for NASCAR?
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Old 11-05-04, 11:08 AM
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I look at the pay and education level and can't help but think "Union Vote"
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Old 11-05-04, 11:09 AM
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Originally posted by Y2K Falcon
Where are the numbers for NASCAR?
On the doors and roofs of the cars, dumbass.

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Old 11-05-04, 11:10 AM
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Originally posted by weargle
I look at the pay and education level and can't help but think "Union Vote"
<table border = 1 cellspacing = 1 cellpadding = 1 width = 60%><tr><td bgcolor = #FFFFFF width = 50%><b>Union Member?</b></td><td bgcolor = #FFFFFF><b>Bush</b></td><td bgcolor = #FFFFFF><b>Kerry</b></td>
</tr><tr><td bgcolor = #FF5599>Yes</td><td bgcolor = #FF5599>39%</td><td bgcolor = #FF5599>60%</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor = #7EC0EE>No</td><td bgcolor = #7ECOEE>53%</td><td bgcolor = #7ECOEE>46%</td></tr></table>
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Old 11-05-04, 11:11 AM
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They don't have doors, dumbass. They have to climb out the windows "Dukes of Hazzard"-style.

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Old 11-05-04, 11:12 AM
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interesting.

i thought the theory was that voters became more liberal the more educated they became, but became conservative at the top end....like a kite or something. atleast that's what i remember from government class
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Old 11-05-04, 11:13 AM
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there are from exit polls....i thought everyone agreed they were wrong.


I find this more interesting in income:

Less Than $50,000 (48%)

$50,000 or More (52%)



52% of the voters made over 50k? that doesn't seem like a cross-section of society
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Old 11-05-04, 11:14 AM
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Originally posted by Venusian
interesting.

i thought the theory was that voters became more liberal the more educated they became, but became conservative at the top end....like a kite or something. atleast that's what i remember from government class
It's a 'U' shaped curve. People with very high and very low levels of education tend to vote Democratic, while the Republicans do best with people with Bachelor's degrees.
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Old 11-05-04, 11:14 AM
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Very interesting.

I'm a little surprised at those numbers.

I wonder why the disparity (although comparatively small) between the college grad numbers & the post grad numbers?
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Old 11-05-04, 11:15 AM
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I've always thought that the more a person has to protect, the more conservative they become.....
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Old 11-05-04, 11:15 AM
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Originally posted by Venusian
there are from exit polls....i thought everyone agreed they were wrong
Exit poll data are all we're gonna get for a while, AFAIK.

Besides, these numbers look pretty spot on. I thought the problem with the exit polls is that they were initially weighted too heavily with women voters.
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Old 11-05-04, 11:15 AM
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Originally posted by wendersfan
It's a 'U' shaped curve. People with very high and very low levels of education tend to vote Democratic, while the Republicans do best with people with Bachelor's degrees.
i remember just the opposite from class...maybe i'm just confused
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Old 11-05-04, 11:16 AM
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Originally posted by Venusian
i remember just the opposite from class...maybe i'm just confused
Well, think about it. Who supports the Democrats? - the working class and academia.
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Old 11-05-04, 11:20 AM
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and academia
Ha! Ha! I wasn't thinking about academia - that explains the disparity.
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Old 11-05-04, 11:22 AM
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Originally posted by classicman2
Ha! Ha! I wasn't thinking about academia - that explains the disparity.
Well, let me put it this way. Out of all the people in my department (faculty, staff, and grad students) I am probably by far the most pro-Bush. Knowing what you know of my political attitudes, think about that for a second.
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Old 11-05-04, 11:23 AM
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Originally posted by Venusian
52% of the voters made over 50k? that doesn't seem like a cross-section of society
And certainly not an accurate cross-section of Ohio, which, of all the jobs lost in the last four years, featured <i>38% of them.</i>

- David Stein
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Old 11-05-04, 11:24 AM
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Originally posted by sfsdfd
And certainly not an accurate cross-section of Ohio, which, of all the jobs lost in the last four years, featured <i>38% of them.</i>
It's probably household income.
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Old 11-05-04, 11:26 AM
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still...

Median household income in ohio is (was) 43,591 (http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/histinc/h08a.html)


it could be accurate, but it means a lot more of the "wealthy" voted
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Old 11-05-04, 11:27 AM
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Originally posted by Venusian
interesting.

i thought the theory was that voters became more liberal the more educated they became, but became conservative at the top end....like a kite or something. atleast that's what i remember from government class
The national demographics results seem to prove that.

Interesting results, but nothing surprising (I'm speaking of the national, not Ohio results).

Anyone have a comparative demographics for the 2000/2004 election?

IIRC what I heard some reports said, more blacks, hispanics, women voted for Bush in this election. The Jew vote remained unchanged, but the Arab vote went heavily against Bush. No idea about the Asians.
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Old 11-05-04, 11:27 AM
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Does the result in Ohio put to rest the argument that economic issues trump all others?

Remember - 'it's the economy, stupid.'

That wasn't true in 1992, and obviously it wasn't true in 2004 in Ohio.
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Old 11-05-04, 11:29 AM
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Originally posted by Ranger
The national demographics results seem to prove that.

Interesting results, but nothing surprising (I'm speaking of the national, not Ohio results).

Anyone have a comparative demographics for the 2000/2004 election?

IIRC what I heard some reports said, more blacks, hispanics, women voted for Bush in this election. The Jew vote remained unchanged, but the Arab vote went heavily against Bush. No idea about the Asians.
There are some comparative stats, but I didn't include them because I'm lazy and busy. From what I could tell, Bush held ground with those groups who supported him in 2000 (upper-middle income, protestants, etc.) and gained with other groups.
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Old 11-05-04, 11:30 AM
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Originally posted by Venusian
there are from exit polls....i thought everyone agreed they were wrong.
Stone Phillips did an NBC Nightly News segment on exit polls, Wednesday. I haven't done any research of my own, but taking his report at face value:

The early exit polls were very wrong. Their investigation showed that while they didn't understand the bias, early voters were not a random sample of all voters and had significantly different demographics. When they looked at exit polls for the entire time span the polls were open, they were very accurate. (Of course, they are not far ahead of the official vote count)

Again, I'm not claiming that is all true, only that Stone claimed it was true.
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Old 11-05-04, 11:30 AM
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Originally posted by Venusian
still...

Median household income in ohio is (was) 43,591 (http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/histinc/h08a.html)


it could be accurate, but it means a lot more of the "wealthy" voted
Well, of course. Voter participation rates correlate very highly with income and education levels.
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Old 11-05-04, 11:33 AM
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I believe the exit polls are very accurate in discovering what are the issues that concern the voter.

I believe they are highly inaccurate in predicting the outcome of the election.
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