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ONE AND ONLY Ohio count thread

Old 11-03-04, 10:34 AM
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One and Only Ohio count thread

Lets get one place for this.

My post from another thread-

Well I can understand waiting to find out how many Absentee and provisional ballots there are to be counted. So its easy for me to understand waiting and not saying anything last night.

The question we all dont know is how many ballots are there left?

My quess is there would have to be at least 250,000 provisionals for him to hold out.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:39 AM
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From Dailykos.


Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221
If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. The highest number I've seen.

And 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes.

If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.

If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779.

If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves us in a position to get an automatic statewide recount.

Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:39 AM
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On site reports/estimates place Provisionals at about 160,000 (+/- 15,000). Military absentees outstanding will break Bush. I just do not see how it is possible that Kerry can continue the fight given these numbers. He would need to find SIGNIFICANT polling irregularities likely favoring his campaign AND carry 75% of the provisionals (with at least 95% of the potential provisionals counting). This ain't gonna happen.

Ohio goes Bush. Game Over.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:40 AM
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Originally posted by DonnachaOne
From Dailykos.


Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221
If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. The highest number I've seen.

And 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes.

If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.

If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779.

If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves us in a position to get an automatic statewide recount.

Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.
Right, right. That's going to happen when many of the counties with a lot of provisional ballots are Republican.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:42 AM
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Quake, I'm just posting news from another site.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:43 AM
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But its is the number I think Kerrys team has to look at. My guess is if 250,000 provisional ballots they/we have to do the count.

Why not?
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Old 11-03-04, 10:44 AM
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Kerry can't bow out. If he does, and something materializes, he's SOL.

Fucking OHIO!!
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Old 11-03-04, 10:45 AM
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That 250,000 number is probably way to high. CNN reported it was around 150,000 maybe 175,000.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:46 AM
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Originally posted by chanster
That 250,000 number is probably way to high. CNN reported it was around 150,000 maybe 175,000.
Right. Even so, a ton of those won't get counted. Also, military votes are not coutned yet and those are traditionally pro Republican.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:47 AM
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Originally posted by CRM114
Kerry can't bow out. If he does, and something materializes, he's SOL.
Conceding the race is just a formality and doesn't actually affect the results. However, as we learned with Gore to concede and then fight creates a huge image problem.

I don't have a problem with Kerry playing "wait and see" for the time being, it's a smart move. But realistically, he's lost.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:47 AM
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Originally posted by CRM114
Kerry can't bow out. If he does, and something materializes, he's SOL.

Fucking OHIO!!
What do you honestly think is going to materialize? You can't make up a ~135k deficit with ~150k votes out there.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:47 AM
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Originally posted by Quake1028
Right. Even so, a ton of those won't get counted. Also, military votes are not coutned yet and those are traditionally pro Republican.
So are you suggesting that we should not count them?
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Old 11-03-04, 10:49 AM
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Originally posted by bfrank
So are you suggesting that we should not count them?
I'm suggesting no such thing. I AM suggesting that it's a mathematical impossibility at this point.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:49 AM
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Originally posted by Quake1028
What do you honestly think is going to materialize? You can't make up a ~135k deficit with ~150k votes out there.
I don't think anything will materialize but I'm just Joe Shmo.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:50 AM
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Ohio's Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell had estimated that as many as 175,000 provisional ballots could be cast, and counties reported as of Wednesday morning that 135,149 had been issued. Blackwell on Wednesday asked 10 counties that had failed to report provisional ballot totals to complete their counts by 2 p.m. (1900 GMT).
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...nm/election_dc
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Old 11-03-04, 10:50 AM
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Originally posted by DonnachaOne
From Dailykos.


Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221
If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. The highest number I've seen.

And 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes.

If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.

If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779.

If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves us in a position to get an automatic statewide recount.

Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.
BTW, the math in this is all wrong (They forgot to credit Bush with his, allegedly minimal share of the provisionals thus highly skewing the result).

Assuming 250,000 provisionals, with 90% valid and 85% going Kerry, the math is as follows:

225,000 votes
191,250 for Kerry
33,750 for Bush
--------
157,500 gain for Kerry
offset by current 136,221 lead by Bush
Result-Kerry takes lead by 21,279.

The other calculations are just as incorrect.

Last edited by wlmowery; 11-03-04 at 11:07 AM.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:51 AM
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From NRO:
MSNBC reported this morning that, for the small amount of time they have been in use (so data may not be the most reliable) legitimacy rate of provisional votes in Ohio is about 90%. If that holds up, there would be about 139,000. Statistically inconceivable that Kerry could overcome Bush's lead since he'd basically need 100%. But is it enough for the Dems to justify to themselves dragging this out? I'm afraid it probably is because the MSM will not kill them over it.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:52 AM
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90%? The highest figure I have heard for approval is 10-20%.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:53 AM
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I'm all for counting them, it won't change the results though.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:53 AM
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Quake- clearly it is an extreme long shoot - no doubt.

But you seem to be claiming facts that no one knows for sure yet. We dont know haw many there are yet - this is teh factor we need to understand if there is any chance for Kerry.

Also I would add that I would expect that the provisionals will be mostly for Kerry because of the Rep poll challengers that were allowed.

Still after it all it seems clear that Bush will win.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:53 AM
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I wonder if dailycos has any input as to why many of the provisionals will never be counted. Some of the stories about how provisionals were distributed lead me to believe that this 90% valid number is probably not accurate.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:54 AM
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Given the above, Kerry would need to break on the ULTRA HIGH END on all variables to have any shot. It just is not going to happen.

While NOT statistically impossible for Kerry to take the lead, it is statistically highly unlikely.

I honestly think it is in the best interests of the Democratic Party to gain back a bit of image with moderates by throwing in the towel this time.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:55 AM
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Chew- I think if your numbers hold Kerry will concede today.

They need ~250,000 provisional IMO
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Old 11-03-04, 10:56 AM
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From other thread:

A physics Ph.D. candidate at a very respectable university: "Mr. Derbyshire---I felt a strong need to actually figure out John Kerry's odds of winning Ohio in a somewhat rigorous fashion. Not too promising for the Kerry campaign: I figure there are 175000 provisional ballots out there, as that seems to be the high end of official estimates. If we assume that each has a 50% chance of being counted (and that's way high, it's really probably more like 15-20%) then having more ballots than Bush's margin of victory is a 360-sigma event, which comes out to a probability of 2.8*10^-28145. [That's a number with 28,144 zeros to the right of the decimal point, then some nonzero digits: 2, 8,...---JD] But hey, it could happen. And if every one of those votes goes for John Kerry (probability of this is around 10^-850000 or so) then Kerry might just pull this off."
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Old 11-03-04, 10:56 AM
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Originally posted by wlmowery
Given the above, Kerry would need to break on the ULTRA HIGH END on all variables to have any shot. It just is not going to happen.

While NOT statistically impossible for Kerry to take the lead, it is statistically highly unlikely.

I honestly think it is in the best interests of the Democratic Party to gain back a bit of image with moderates by throwing in the towel this time.
After Gores concession - that will never happen. If there is a chance they will hold out.
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