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How did all of the exit polling get it so wrong?

Old 11-03-04, 09:37 AM
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How did all of the exit polling get it so wrong?

I saw early on that both Virginia and South Carolina were "too close to call" when they relied on exit polling, and that the rest of the country wasn't too far behind on this issue either. The networks have traditionally relied on these sort of predictions to make their early calls, but this year they were WAY off. Any idea why?
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Old 11-03-04, 09:44 AM
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Exit polling asks voters as they leave the polls who they voted for. They have no way of accounting for (a) absentee ballots, (b) ballots cast early, (c) people lying, (d) people who voted before the exit pollers showed up, or (e) people who voted after the exit pollers left. If exit polling is done mid-day, they miss the bulk of voters who work, many of whom are Republican, thus their sample is skewed.

Exit polling has become a terribly inaccurate way of predicting the outcome of ALL of the voters.
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Old 11-03-04, 09:48 AM
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I'm curious myself. Exit polling had my state at 60/40 for Kerry. It ended up being something like 51/49 or 52/48.
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Old 11-03-04, 09:52 AM
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[DUForums]No, the exit polling got it right! It's the new electronic voting...

"EVERY STATE that has EVoting but no paper trails has an unexplained advantage for Bush of around +5% when comparing exit polls to actual results.

In EVERY STATE that has paper audit trails on their EVoting, the exit poll results match the actual results reported within the margin of error.

So we have MATCHING RESULTS for exit polls vs. voting with audits

vs.

A 5% unexplained advantage for Bush without audits"[DUForums]

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Old 11-03-04, 10:12 AM
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I think the polls tracked pretty close. Bush by 2% national and all of the states are right as expected and it came down to Ohio which was too close to call.

This is what I expected.
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Old 11-03-04, 10:12 AM
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Originally posted by bfrank
I think the polls tracked pretty close. Bush by 2% national and all of the states are right as expected and it came down to Ohio which was too close to call.

This is what I expected.
what about zogby?
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Old 11-03-04, 10:13 AM
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just read the "exit" part of the title
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Old 11-03-04, 11:48 AM
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The exit polls got it right they just didn't account for the republicans stealing the election.

No Paper trails, Diebold is a large republican contributor, Bush has a brother as governor of a swing state. Add it up.
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Old 11-03-04, 11:49 AM
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Originally posted by towbinaj
The exit polls got it right they just didn't account for the republicans stealing the election.

No Paper trails, Diebold is a large republican contributor, Bush has a brother as governor of a swing state. Add it up.
Thanks for your two cents.
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Old 11-03-04, 11:52 AM
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Originally posted by towbinaj
The exit polls got it right they just didn't account for the republicans stealing the election.

No Paper trails, Diebold is a large republican contributor, Bush has a brother as governor of a swing state. Add it up.

weeeeeeeeeeee!!!!
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Old 11-03-04, 11:56 AM
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Im very surprised the people of this country are ok with being led like sheep . The electronic voting machines are very easy to rig as proven by a number of major US universities . For weeks I read how we could see the President be re-elected but not win the popular vote again , yet he is .
This makes me sick to my stomach , I truly feel Bush has lied to thios country and is responsible directly for the events of 9-11 .
To make things worse , I believe the corparate world has overtaken what was left of our free country and replaced it with greed and power-mongers .
Truly the exit polls did not match when history shows they are normally around 1% in error due to electronic voting fraud .
I will be called a moron and such for suggesting this but I ask one thing , give me 100% hard proof that the machines were not tampered with . You cannot do that , so sit and think about a copy of the constitution and it's new use as toilet paper .
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Old 11-03-04, 11:57 AM
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Originally posted by Lemondrop
I truly feel Bush has lied to thios country and is responsible directly for the events of 9-11 .
I almost hate to ask this, but exactly how is Bush responsible for 9/11?
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Old 11-03-04, 11:58 AM
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Wow. Just wow.

I wish I'd bought stock in Reynolds, because it's got to take a helluva lot of aluminum foil to make the hats some of you guys are wearing.
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Old 11-03-04, 12:01 PM
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Originally posted by Lemondrop
Im very surprised the people of this country are ok with being led like sheep . The electronic voting machines are very easy to rig as proven by a number of major US universities . For weeks I read how we could see the President be re-elected but not win the popular vote again , yet he is .
This makes me sick to my stomach , I truly feel Bush has lied to thios country and is responsible directly for the events of 9-11 .
To make things worse , I believe the corparate world has overtaken what was left of our free country and replaced it with greed and power-mongers .
Truly the exit polls did not match when history shows they are normally around 1% in error due to electronic voting fraud .
I will be called a moron and such for suggesting this but I ask one thing , give me 100% hard proof that the machines were not tampered with . You cannot do that , so sit and think about a copy of the constitution and it's new use as toilet paper .
Principal: Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
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Old 11-03-04, 12:03 PM
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Originally posted by tonytapez
Principal: Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.


What is that from? I can't remember...
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Old 11-03-04, 12:05 PM
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it was all the cell phone users.... ;-)
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Old 11-03-04, 12:06 PM
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Originally posted by nevermind


What is that from? I can't remember...
http://www.imdb.com/Title?0112508

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Old 11-03-04, 12:06 PM
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Originally posted by tonytapez
http://www.imdb.com/Title?0112508

thanks!
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Old 11-03-04, 12:07 PM
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like all polls it's unreliable. Either that or people voted for Kerry but the Bush camp fixed the election.
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Old 11-03-04, 12:08 PM
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Originally posted by CaptainMarvel, Esq.
I wish I'd bought stock in Reynolds, because it's got to take a helluva lot of aluminum foil to make the hats some of you guys are wearing.
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Old 11-03-04, 12:09 PM
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This thread has a lot of promise. Hopefully, we don't get bogged down in details like lack of absentee and early voters, or the poor exit poll showing in 2002, or any of that other nonsense. Just keep on track with the conspiracies.
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Old 11-03-04, 12:10 PM
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Originally posted by tonytapez
Principal: Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
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Old 11-03-04, 12:11 PM
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Originally posted by Lemondrop
Im very surprised the people of this country are ok with being led like sheep . The electronic voting machines are very easy to rig as proven by a number of major US universities . For weeks I read how we could see the President be re-elected but not win the popular vote again , yet he is .
This makes me sick to my stomach , I truly feel Bush has lied to thios country and is responsible directly for the events of 9-11 .
To make things worse , I believe the corparate world has overtaken what was left of our free country and replaced it with greed and power-mongers .
Truly the exit polls did not match when history shows they are normally around 1% in error due to electronic voting fraud .
I will be called a moron and such for suggesting this but I ask one thing , give me 100% hard proof that the machines were not tampered with . You cannot do that , so sit and think about a copy of the constitution and it's new use as toilet paper .
Sore loser.
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Old 11-03-04, 12:11 PM
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Originally posted by wendersfan
I almost hate to ask this, but exactly how is Bush responsible for 9/11?
Because, some people are easily convinced by fringe groups with money that the President and his cabinet members created 9/11 in order to undermine our civil liberties. They needed a way to get the Patriot Act passed, so what better way to do that than to destroy the two tallest buildings in the country, and "fake" a plane crash into the mother of all military headquarters.

Haven't you watched "9/11 In Plane Site" yet? Ian Jane said it was Highly Recommended.

I've seen it 3 times, and cringe at the thought of people actually believing the "evidence" put forth by the people that produced the documentary, and others like them.
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Old 11-03-04, 12:12 PM
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Originally posted by wendersfan
I almost hate to ask this, but exactly how is Bush responsible for 9/11?
Give me 100% hard proof that he wasn't!
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