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The One and Only 2004 Election Exit Polling Data thread

Old 11-02-04, 02:47 PM
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The One and Only 2004 Election Exit Polling Data thread

So as not to mess up the "official results" thread, I figured I'd start a place where we could post any exit polling data that we've found.

The first wave is said to look like this, per VNS (now NEP) as reported by a Pro-Kerry website: mydd.com, and as referenced by drudgereport.com.

Code:
	 AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH
Kerry	 45  48  42  60  52  51  51  50  58  52  49  57
Bush	 55  51  57  40  48  48  47  48  40  43  49  41
These are first wave numbers, so take them as you will.
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Old 11-02-04, 02:49 PM
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How accurate are first wave exit poll numbers typically?
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Old 11-02-04, 02:49 PM
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Ohhhh.... exit polls. I knew there was some sort of data before polls closed.
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Old 11-02-04, 02:52 PM
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Originally posted by Goldblum
How accurate are first wave exit poll numbers typically?
It really all depends. Early word out of Ohio was that Bush had an 8 point lead, but 10% of those asked gave no response to the question. Then almost immediately, Kerry was showing a 4 point lead. In other words, when you figure all of the various factors at play, they are probably almost meaningless until the late numbers begin to roll in.

But they are fun to watch and grouse about.
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Old 11-02-04, 02:53 PM
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Originally posted by Goldblum
How accurate are first wave exit poll numbers typically?
From the Kerry Spot:
This is my fourth election in which these exits polls have trickled into an office where I'm working -- and not once have they held up in their entirety. At mid-day, they may in fact point to a few trendlines, but we don't know what they are until later because they also include some red herrings. An example: I remember in 1992 being told that Clinton was edging Bush in Virginia in the middle of the afternoon. This was of interest because several of my colleagues were Virginia voters. The final result was Bush 45 percent, Clinton 41 percent.
Also,

I'm told that pollsters close to the Bush campaign think that Bush is up in Florida and New Hampshire, down in Wisconsin, even in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and "doing well" in Ohio. And they don't think that the exit-poll numbers on NRO about Ohio add up.
I'm not putting stock in any polling until the states are actually counted.
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Old 11-02-04, 02:54 PM
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Originally posted by Goldblum
How accurate are first wave exit poll numbers typically?
Exit polls are what led to Florida being called for Bush at about 3:00 in 2000, despite Gore having a 50,000+ vote lead at that time.
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Old 11-02-04, 02:56 PM
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Originally posted by Jeremy517
Exit polls are what led to Florida being called for Bush at about 3:00 in 2000, despite Gore having a 50,000+ vote lead at that time.
This company's exit polls, to be precise.
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Old 11-02-04, 03:14 PM
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Drudge is saying that the early exits were based on a 59-41 ration of women to men. I have no link for that other than his assertion, but I'd say that is definitely a skewing factor if true.
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Old 11-02-04, 03:15 PM
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Exit polling says Thune by 4 so far.

Take it with the same grain of salt.........
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Old 11-02-04, 03:25 PM
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Originally posted by Jeremy517
Exit polls are what led to Florida being called for Bush at about 3:00 in 2000, despite Gore having a 50,000+ vote lead at that time.
3?
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Old 11-02-04, 03:26 PM
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Oops!

U.S. stocks jarred by early call favoring Kerry
Tuesday November 2, 3:14 pm ET
By Mark Cotton

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks fell from their highs Tuesday amid reports that John Kerry is putting in a strong early showing at the polls.

"The only thing I can see is that the Drudge Report shows the preliminary exit polls showing Kerry within striking distance," said Jay Suskind, director of trading of Ryan, Beck & Co.

Miller Tabak equity strategist Peter Boockvar said the fall was on nothing in particular, but also mentioned the Drudge Report showing that Kerry was running more competitively than initially thought.
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041102...5995353_1.html
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Old 11-02-04, 03:26 PM
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Originally posted by Venusian
3?
AM
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Old 11-02-04, 03:28 PM
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Originally posted by Mad Dawg
AM
Dang, that'll keep 'em at home. Doggone Bush cousins!!!
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Old 11-02-04, 03:28 PM
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Originally posted by Venusian
3?
Just estimating. I don't remember at exactly what time it was first called. I do remember that Gore had a 50,000+ lead (of actual counted votes) at the time though. I remember mentioning it to my boss at the time.

Last edited by Jeremy517; 11-02-04 at 03:31 PM.
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Old 11-02-04, 03:32 PM
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These numbers seem a little wild. You know the major news organizations are not going to get caught with their pants around their ankles this time around. If they're within 1%, they're not going to make a call. We might not know the real results tonight, but it will be fun in the process.
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Old 11-02-04, 03:32 PM
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Senate races per Drudge:

Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4...
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Old 11-02-04, 03:51 PM
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They're now saying the exit polling is based on 59-41 women to men ratio. Since Kerry has the slight edge with women, it's understandable why we're getting numbers going all the Senator's way at this point.
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Old 11-02-04, 03:52 PM
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Kind of funny the market drops when the news comes out.
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Old 11-02-04, 03:57 PM
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Originally posted by Mad Dawg
Senate races per Drudge:
Senate race per nevermind:

Obama +oh I dunno, 40, 45?
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Old 11-02-04, 03:58 PM
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If these numbers were true it would end

Bush 234
Kerry 300



dont think that is even close.

I would guess you are seeing a lot of stay home moms in this data
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Old 11-02-04, 03:59 PM
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I've been watching my own personal poll - bet365.com

Early in the Day:
Demos + 120
Reps. -115

Right now, it has swung all the way around
Demos - 138
Reps. +100

Take it as you will.
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Old 11-02-04, 04:00 PM
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Originally posted by bfrank

I would guess you are seeing a lot of stay home moms in this data
Or chronically unemployed.

I wonder who wins the deadbeat vote?
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Old 11-02-04, 04:00 PM
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Originally posted by chanster
I've been watching my own personal poll - bet365.com

Early in the Day:
Demos + 120
Reps. -115

Right now, it has swung all the way around
Demos - 138
Reps. +100

Take it as you will.
I'd take it to the bank and bet Republican.
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Old 11-02-04, 04:05 PM
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Here is some skewed info. This should be the offical Grain of Salt thread. Jonah Goldberg of National Review says that after checking with several sources, he's confident that the early poll numbers showing Kerry cruising in Penn came directly from the Kerry camp. Several repubs have been refuting these and the other numbers based upon their internal polling.
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Old 11-02-04, 04:07 PM
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Admit it Mad Dawg. You enjoy this more than the MLB playoffs.
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