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Final election assessment and predictions

Old 11-01-04, 11:57 AM
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Final election assessment and predictions

Post 'em here.



Mine:

More than a year ago I stated that Mr. Kerry would win his party's nomination and that he had a chance to win the General. While the Democratic primaries were going on I maintained this view, even in spite of Mr. Dean's run. I always felt Senator Kerry would present a challenge to the President, just not perhaps the best one.

The election was bound to be close due to the animosity many feel for the President. The challenger is largely irrelevant in this election. Mr. Kerry has not done enough negative things, though his campaign will never be considered well run and effective, to disrupt this scenario. It is going to be very close and come down to the end of the evening. Many simply want President Bush out of office.

I was a bit disheartened by a couple of today's polls, including the Gallup poll. There may very well not have been any true movement in the polls, factoring in moe, but I would have preferred going into tomorrow with a five point lead instead of a one or two point lead. However, I still have a difficult time believing that negativity towards one candidate, as opposed to real support for their own, will translate into massive voter turnout that votes they way they claim they will. When push comes to shove, I believe that the segment of the electorate that will decide the election, married women, will break significantly for the President and he will be re-elected.

That is why I will stick with the prediction I made on this board four months ago. President Bush wins the election with about a 4.5% margin. He will win Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin, plus all of the other States he carried last time. The election will be decided by the time I go to bed that evening.




Of course, I won't be too surprised by anything that happens.
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Old 11-01-04, 11:59 AM
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Has your final Senate prediction been posted (and I missed it)?
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Old 11-01-04, 12:01 PM
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I'm sticking with the Bush 290-248 prediction (assuming no faithless electors).
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Old 11-01-04, 12:02 PM
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Re: Final election assessment and predictions

Originally posted by Pharoh
I believe that the segment of the electorate that will decide the election, married women, will break significantly for the President and he will be re-elected. Of course, I won't be too surprised by anything that happens.
I see a mess with Kerry the winner at the end and it's the unpolled people, who are more likely be Kerry supporter, that will break for Kerry to be our next president.

Of course, I won't be too surprised by anything that happens
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Old 11-01-04, 12:02 PM
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Around 300 EV for Bush.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:05 PM
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Originally posted by Chew
Has your final Senate prediction been posted (and I missed it)?

Sort of. I was going to bump that one up in a little while.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:08 PM
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My Prediction (of the main battlegrounds):

Bush: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia, Virginia, Arkanas

Kerry: Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Jersey, Hawaii

Total: 289-249 in favor of Bush.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:12 PM
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I figure Kerry gets somewhere around 290 EVs. I think he takes Florida and one of either Ohio or PA, but most of the other swing states. My guess is that it comes down to around 50%-48% popular vote in favor of Kerry. I do not think we will have a repeat of the 2000 election; we will all know the winner Tuesday night.

BTW, I've been saying this for months, so this isn't a recent guess based on whatever is coming out in the polls today.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:13 PM
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Is there any democrats who unfortunately on their part, predict a Bush Victory?
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Old 11-01-04, 12:14 PM
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I believe Kerry will win New Mexico.

Bush leads Kerry among married women voters 51-44.

Of course the real deciding factor will be the weather on election day.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:14 PM
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Originally posted by General Zod
My Prediction (of the main battlegrounds):

Bush: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia, Virginia, Arkanas

Kerry: Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Jersey, Hawaii

Total: 289-249 in favor of Bush.

I still laugh whenever VA is mentioned as a battleground.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:15 PM
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It looks like rain in Ohio all day tomorrow.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:16 PM
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Originally posted by raven56706
Is there any democrats who unfortunately on their part, predict a Bush Victory?
I consider myself a Democrat, and I believe Bush will win.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:16 PM
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Originally posted by nevermind
It looks like rain in Ohio all day tomorrow.
That's great news for the Repubs. Democrats don't like to get wet.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:19 PM
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Good news for Bush in NH, PA, OH, and MI.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:20 PM
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Originally posted by raven56706
Is there any democrats who unfortunately on their part, predict a Bush Victory?
I am still going under the assumption that Bush will win. I'm hoping beyond hope that this will not happen though.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:20 PM
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Originally posted by classicman2
That's great news for the Repubs. Democrats don't like to get wet.
Only a 10% chance of a sprinkle in FL. We're in the dry season now.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:25 PM
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ok give reasons
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Old 11-01-04, 12:29 PM
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Reasons:

1. Bush has substantial lead over Kery on the issues of national security & Iraq (somewhat less on Iraq). I think these are the 2 principal issues that the folks who determine elections are concerned with.

2. Bush has a 7-point lead over Kerry among married women.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:31 PM
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Originally posted by raven56706
Is there any democrats who unfortunately on their part, predict a Bush Victory?
I'm a registered Democrat (does that make me a DINO?) and I think Bush will win. I actually agree with General Zod's assessments close to 100%.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:33 PM
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Originally posted by General Zod
My Prediction (of the main battlegrounds):

Bush: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia, Virginia, Arkanas

Kerry: Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Jersey, Hawaii

Total: 289-249 in favor of Bush.
I think Kerry will take Ohio and Wisconsin and has a chance in Florida if elderly voters in Palm Beach County can figure out the ballot. Not giving Florida to Kerry, Kerry over Bush 279-259. Kerry in the popular vote by 1-1½%.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:34 PM
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I suspect Kerry will win the popular vote. Who gets the EC will depend upon turn out in OH, PA and FL.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:36 PM
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Originally posted by nemein
I suspect Kerry will win the popular vote. Who gets the EC will depend upon turn out in OH, PA and FL.
I don't believe Kerry will win the popular vote.

How's that?
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Old 11-01-04, 12:38 PM
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The only thing that will shock me tomorrow is if Kerry wins the popular vote. The electoral vote is the one I don't have a clue on.
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Old 11-01-04, 12:40 PM
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Originally posted by Red Dog


Good news for Bush in NH, PA, OH, and MI.
Actually it's good news for Kerry. Bad weather affects older voters more than it does younger ones. Downpours may stop grandpa and grandma from getting out to vote, but it's not going to stop the 18-29 crowd (Kerry's strongest demographic).
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