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October Surprise Due Today

Old 10-28-04, 11:14 AM
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October Surprise Due Today

Okay, it's the Thursday before Election Day. This is the day that any "October Surprise" is most likely to happen. A late-breaking news event with a whiff of partisan conspiracy designed to tilt a close election one way or the other. Thursday is just early enough for the media to swallow and regurgitate it, but too late for a coordinated rebuttal/retraction.

It's happened in two of the last three elections: It was on this day in 2000 that the Gore campaign alerted the press to a previously unreported 1976 drunken-driving citation for George W Bush. Bush's lead in the polls evaporated, and it is believed that it accounted in part for a lower-than-expected turnout by evangelical Christian voters, which, in turn, might have cost Bush the popular vote and helped produce the Florida recount dispute.

It was also on this day in 1992 that an Iran-Contra indictment of Reagan Secretary of State Caspar Weinberger was announced, which eroded support for incumbent George H.W. Bush, and helped to usher in Bill Clinton.

So the big question is.... what will happen today? What story, true or otherwise, will be the big "October Surprise" that the media happily will run with?
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Old 10-28-04, 11:17 AM
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It seems one side already jumped the gun (http://dvdtalk.com/forum/showthread....hreadid=392496) so now the question is what's the other side going to bring out today
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Old 10-28-04, 11:18 AM
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Can we start our own?
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Old 10-28-04, 11:22 AM
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<b>Here's one...</b>

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...=564&ncid=1473
<b>100,000 Excess Iraqi Deaths Since War - Study</b>

15 minutes ago

Top Stories - Reuters

LONDON (Reuters) - Deaths of Iraqis have soared by 100,000 since the start of the Iraq (news - web sites) war and many of the victims have been women and children, public health experts from the United States said on Thursday.



"Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100,000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq," researchers from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, Maryland said in a report published online by The Lancet medical journal.

Last edited by nemein; 10-28-04 at 11:43 AM.
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Old 10-28-04, 11:22 AM
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Originally posted by nemein
It seems one side already jumped the gun (http://dvdtalk.com/forum/showthread....hreadid=392496) so now the question is what's the other side going to bring out today
In order to scoop CBS and 60 Minutes, the Times came out with this way too early. Plenty of time was left to counter the initial shock. If it was only a 60 Minutes piece, that's a different story.

Whether it was the shock or the counter that worked better remains to be seen.
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Old 10-28-04, 11:23 AM
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Originally posted by nemein
It seems one side already jumped the gun (http://dvdtalk.com/forum/showthread....hreadid=392496) so now the question is what's the other side going to bring out today
Yeah, I was wondering why the "missing weapons" weapon story broke so soon this week. It now looks like there's no evidence that the weapons were there after the war started, so it's entirely possible that they did NOT slip through our fingers, rendering the whole purpose behind the story (to wit: discrediting the Administration) moot.

(Yeah, I'm partisan, and my opinion is slanted by my distrust of the "objective" media.)

Had the Times broken the story today instead of Tuesday, there would not have been enough time to de-bunk it. So, did the Times commit a Rather-esque blunder by running the story 2 days early, or was it intentionally released then because there's something else waiting in the wings to be sprung upon us?
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Old 10-28-04, 11:27 AM
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Could be this:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...1027111640.htm
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Old 10-28-04, 11:29 AM
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Serious question: Is this election "October Surprise Proof?" Meaning, both sides are so entrenched, anything that pops between now and next Tuesday won't matter?
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Old 10-28-04, 11:30 AM
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Originally posted by VinVega
Serious question: Is this election "October Surprise Proof?" Meaning, both sides are so entrenched, anything that pops between now and next Tuesday won't matter?

Not sure. I know the explosives story is having some impact, just not in the way that the Kerry campaign had hoped for.
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Old 10-28-04, 11:32 AM
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BOMBSHELL!!!
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Old 10-28-04, 11:34 AM
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Originally posted by orangerory
Could be this:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...1027111640.htm
XXXXX DRUDGE REPORT EXCLUSIVE XXXXX 10/28/2004 11:34AM
SCIENTISTS ACHIEVE NEW INSIGHTS ABOUT BIG BANG THEORY

[groucho] That's it, I'm voting for Bush. [/groucho]

- David Stein
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Old 10-28-04, 11:36 AM
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You guys.

I have a soft spot for the Weekly World News in my heart Zod. I liked that one.
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Old 10-28-04, 11:41 AM
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Originally posted by General Zod
BOMBSHELL!!!
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Old 10-28-04, 11:45 AM
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Do you guys think even today is a little early for an October Surprise?

I mean the munitions story was challenged within a day or two. If 60 Minutes had gotten what they wanted it would have aired less than 2 days before the election and the only chance for any real rebuttal would have been the Monday news cycle. Unless it's something really devastating I think the campaigns will sit on it at least until Friday night.
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Old 10-28-04, 11:48 AM
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Originally posted by General Zod
BOMBSHELL!!!
Damn liberal press.
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Old 10-28-04, 11:50 AM
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Unless it's something really devastating I think the campaigns will sit on it at least until Friday night.
Problem is Friday night you've lost the midday coverage on the talk shows. The only time you'll have is the Sunday morning talking head shows which most people don't watch anyway
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Old 10-28-04, 11:53 AM
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zod

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Old 10-28-04, 11:57 AM
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A group calling itself Al-Islam's Army Brigades, Al-Karar Brigade, said it had coordinated with officers and soldiers of "the American intelligence" to obtain a "huge amount of the explosives that were in the al-Qaqaa facility."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...plosives_claim

We gave them the explosives

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Old 10-28-04, 12:37 PM
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Just happened. I don't see how the Reps can counter.

A small snippett...

<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/10/27/biotechnology.cats/index.html"><B>"Administration objected to the creation"</b></a>

Developing. God is furious.
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Old 10-28-04, 12:46 PM
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The Food Network's Cat Cora will be on the Tony Danza Show today. Expect a shocking announcement.
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Old 10-28-04, 01:05 PM
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If there is anything to this "terror threat tape" business, I expect the video to be released any time now.

Listening to talk radio right now, and they are talking about how Kerry is the terrorist's choice, based on the fact that the guy on the tape hates Bush.

In other news, Bush's wolf ad is "brilliant and effective" and Kerry's ads are hopelessly inept.
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Old 10-28-04, 01:10 PM
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Originally posted by sfsdfd
[groucho] That's it, I'm voting for Bush. [/groucho]
That's really Thor's joke (although I'm sure I've stolen it on more than one occasion).

Anyway, both sides have just unveiled their surprises:

Kerry Camp:
Spoiler:
*** BUSH LOOKS LIKE A MONKEY! ***


Bush Camp:
Spoiler:
*** KERRY LOOKS LIKE A ZOMBIE! ***


So, what'll it be, America...

Spoiler:
Will you vote for the Monkey or the Zombie?
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Old 10-28-04, 01:15 PM
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It might be:
1. Kerry voting against the death penalty for terrorists who kill americans abroad in 1989
2. Kerry meeting the enemy in Paris during a war.

I hope it ins't #2.
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Old 10-28-04, 01:19 PM
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3. Kerry pissing on a burning American flag.
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Old 10-28-04, 01:25 PM
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Or the Russians confirm that they took the explosives for Saddam and that he actually did have WMDs immediately before the war and Russia helped transport them.(Unlikely that they will do so).
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