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Question About Polls

Old 10-28-04, 10:24 AM
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Question About Polls

I'm not exactly sure how many people have abandoned their land lines completely nowadays, but I think it's safe to say the majority that have done so are younger people. As a result, could such a group possibly be underrepresented in the telephone polls we see bandied about every day now since by law it is illegal for pollsters to call these numbers? Or are the pollsters taking this potential demographic change into account?
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Old 10-28-04, 10:31 AM
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Are they being underrepresented? Sure
Are they mostly one party or the other that it'll make a difference? I seriously doubt it.
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Old 10-28-04, 10:36 AM
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also caller ID!

here is a big story about this from washtington post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...2004Oct27.html

page three talks about cell phones.

Zogby was on Hannity's radio show on Monday talking about this. It seems he puts a lot into coming up with his numbers. But in the end he said here really has no clue who is ahead. He did say that if the new regestrations show and Bush is below 50% then he thinks Kerry would win. But he also said that many take pause and vote for Bush because the war. Again its too close to call.
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Old 10-28-04, 11:39 AM
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Younger people are underrepresented by the cell phone only factor, but they are also the least likely to vote. *shrug*
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Old 10-28-04, 11:49 AM
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i only have a cell phone. i am planning on voting (hopefully tomorrow). but i live in a state no one cares about.
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Old 10-29-04, 11:09 AM
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Originally posted by VinVega
Younger people are underrepresented by the cell phone only factor, but they are also the least likely to vote. *shrug*

But are they? Are younger cell phone only users radically different voters than younger voters who use land lines? Are the urban cell phone only users dramatically different than urban land line users?

The percentage of cell only users, amongst any demographic, is still small. Assuming that their tendencies will be quite similar to others in their comparable demographic, cell phone only users are being counted in the polls.

Biggest non-story of this election, imho. It will be one of the large reasons why so many will be surprised on Tuesday evening, and I specifically used Tuesday evening.
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Old 10-29-04, 11:14 AM
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Originally posted by Pharoh


The percentage of cell only users, amongst any demographic, is still small.
from a non-scientific survey of my friends. i dont know any single friends of mine that have a landline
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Old 10-29-04, 11:18 AM
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Originally posted by Venusian
from a non-scientific survey of my friends. i dont know any single friends of mine that have a landline

If I remember correctly, (as I wait for somebody to post more accurate numbers), only about 5% of households use a cell phone only. Among those 25 and younger that percentage does go up, but only to about 25% of the total. They're being counted sufficiently enough.
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Old 10-29-04, 11:40 AM
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Originally posted by Pharoh
If I remember correctly, (as I wait for somebody to post more accurate numbers), only about 5% of households use a cell phone only. Among those 25 and younger that percentage does go up, but only to about 25% of the total. They're being counted sufficiently enough.
Given the assumptions that 'cellphone exclusives' tend to be younger people, a group that as a demographic votes at extremely low levels, I can't imagine that this will affect the results in any significant way.
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Old 10-29-04, 11:50 AM
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For some reason, I could swear that we had this discussion a few months ago.
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Old 10-29-04, 12:05 PM
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I wonder how they count the people who are on an island that grants their every wish as they run from a t-rex and his polar bear posse?
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Old 10-29-04, 08:48 PM
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Originally posted by Groucho
For some reason, I could swear that we had this discussion a few months ago.
Probably because we did, unless you have a better reason.
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Old 10-30-04, 01:24 PM
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Since the polls take a certian number of young voters into account, for the last time HOW THE FUCK DOES THIS MATTER!?!?!?!

So...what...they...do...not...poll...cell...phone...only...users. Theyt are NOT a demographic! Young singles ARE a demographic, and they ARE being represented.

Thats like me saying the polls are not valid because they never call DVDTalk members named Tom who live in the Bronx. What the hell does this mean?
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Old 10-30-04, 03:25 PM
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I think the bigger issue poll-wise is how people have migrated the last four years. The housing boom has resulted in people moving around metro areas and between them. I am not so sure the pollsters have their models adjusted for where people actually are and I also think that had a lot to do with 2000 too. There have been some substantial demographic shifts. I truly believe that my state is close mainly because of this. (here it's been movements out of the area by older people and in by young families... the outgoing group tended to vote more dem and the incoming group rep) This is the stuff that matters and I honestly think the pollsters are behind the curve on updating their models.

I am in the minority in thinking this will be decided Tuesday night and will not drag on and that it will not be as close as the polls are saying.
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Old 10-30-04, 04:04 PM
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Originally posted by matchpenalty
I think the bigger issue poll-wise is how people have migrated the last four years. The housing boom has resulted in people moving around metro areas and between them. I am not so sure the pollsters have their models adjusted for where people actually are and I also think that had a lot to do with 2000 too. There have been some substantial demographic shifts. I truly believe that my state is close mainly because of this. (here it's been movements out of the area by older people and in by young families... the outgoing group tended to vote more dem and the incoming group rep) This is the stuff that matters and I honestly think the pollsters are behind the curve on updating their models.

I am in the minority in thinking this will be decided Tuesday night and will not drag on and that it will not be as close as the polls are saying.

I don't think you are in the minority. Many pundits and analysts think the same thing. Most of the politicos on this board agree with you as well.

As for the migration issue, I think you are spot on. This is the precise reason why the South is now solidly Republican, not because of racist views holding on in that area of the country. I think we will continue to see this trend, why I have stated in the past that future elections don't look good for Democrats. Demographics are going against them.
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Old 10-30-04, 04:22 PM
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Well I have not home phone, I am married and voted for Bush. Go figure. My parents do not have a home phone and also voted for Bush.
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