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W/ all this early voting are we going to get early results?

Old 10-27-04, 10:31 PM
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W/ all this early voting are we going to get early results?

I mean before next Tues comes around are places going to release the numbers "so far" or are they not counting yet?
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Old 10-27-04, 10:40 PM
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Re: W/ all this early voting are we going to get early results?

Originally posted by nemein
I mean before next Tues comes around are places going to release the numbers "so far" or are they not counting yet?
with the fiasco caused by early calls in 2000, I would hope the media would show some restraint.

Note, I said "hope" not "expect"

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Old 10-27-04, 10:53 PM
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Do they even check the absentee ballots until election day?
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Old 10-27-04, 11:01 PM
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Do they even check the absentee ballots until election day?
It's not just absentee ballots though some people are actually going to the polls and voting. I assume there are some tight controls over who has access to the machines so there is no tampering. I'm not sure if an end of the day tally is part of that or not.
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Old 10-27-04, 11:11 PM
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Whether they do or not, they shouldn't be allowed to even look at the results, let alone release them. In a system where voting is voluntary, all it would do is encourage the 'other' side to get out and vote.

If Bush appears to be winning in droves, then Kerry supporters will rally (and Bush supporters will be more apathetic about voting) and vice versa. Whatever happens, and whoever is in 'front', early release of votes will influence the electorate.

Better for both sides that they simply be collected and secured until after polls close on November 2.
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Old 10-27-04, 11:14 PM
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Better for both sides that they simply be collected and secured until after polls close on November 2.
I completely agree, but knowing humans I can see a lot of ways this extended voting can be abused.
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Old 10-28-04, 01:39 AM
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Dan Rather has called it for Kerry!
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Old 10-28-04, 08:31 AM
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I think it is illegal to show a running vote total for an area until the polls close there. There seems to be a bit of an issue (Florida, last time) when the state is split into two time zones.
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Old 10-28-04, 12:11 PM
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most "results" we see are from polls anyway, which aren't addressed by early voting.

plus i dont think people will start counting until tuesday. pluss i dont think its a significatn number of people to affect the polls
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Old 10-28-04, 12:18 PM
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While the 2004 election is locked in a virtual dead heat, for nearly one in 10 likely voters it's all over but the counting: They've already cast their ballots.

Nine percent of "likely" voters in the ABC News tracking poll say they've voted for president, either by absentee ballot or early voting, a number that's jumped in the last week. Fifty-one percent say they went for George W. Bush, 47 percent for John Kerry.

That doesn't mean Bush is "winning" the absentee vote; the difference is within sampling tolerances. And among all likely voters, including those waiting for Election Day, the race is essentially tied: Forty-nine percent support Kerry and 48 percent Bush, with 1 percent for Ralph Nader in interviews Friday through Monday.

That's the same as Monday's tracking result. The race tightened slightly from last week because Saturday and Sunday were two of Kerry's three best days since this tracking poll began Oct. 1; Monday, though, was a bit better for Bush. Tracking polls average results across days to build a reliable sample.
Link
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Old 10-28-04, 12:20 PM
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I voted but I doubt we will get any counting until after the polls count. So only polling info IMO
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Old 10-29-04, 08:18 PM
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http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...nnessee_voting
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Old 11-01-04, 09:27 AM
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According to one of the reports read on CSPAN's morning show exit polling indicated Kerry has about 56% of the vote in Florida so far.
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Old 11-01-04, 09:36 AM
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Yep, exit polling shows Kerry way ahead in Florida and Iowa thus far. The Kerry campaign sees itself as up at least 100,000 (if not a quarter million) in Florida at this moment. People are waiting in lines for hours to vote Bush out. Get in on the Kerry wagers right now online as it is fantastic odds. I threw down 2 grand and I am taking home a sweet profit in 48 hours.

Keep in mind that OVERALL early voting includes TEXAS. No major blue state has early voting. Of the states that had early voting this year Bush won with over 56% in year 2000.
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Old 11-01-04, 09:40 AM
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If CSPAN did this - they violated the media agreement.

Didn't the agreement state there was to be no exit polling results until after the polling closed?
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Old 11-01-04, 09:50 AM
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Originally posted by nemein
According to one of the reports read on CSPAN's morning show exit polling indicated Kerry has about 56% of the vote in Florida so far.
If this is the case I would expect it wouldget closer on the 2nd... the anti-Bush crowd is going to be rabid about voting early I would think (I was ) and while a lead that big would probably stand up I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry's percentage dropped much closer to 50%.

If CSPAN did this - they violated the media agreement.

Didn't the agreement state there was to be no exit polling results until after the polling closed?
Damn liberal media! Wait, is CSPAN the media?
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Old 11-01-04, 09:50 AM
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Kerry Spot:
So let's go to the Gallup numbers:

Florida numbers reflect an allocation of those who already voted but refused to say who they voted for. Those respondents' responses were allocated proportionate to how other early voters' voted (54% Bush, 46% Kerry).

One, this would appear to contradict the above statement that Kerry led among early voters 51 to 43 percent. And can a pollster do what they did above? A certain number of poll respondents didn't answer, and Gallup decides that their votes break down proportional to the ones who did answer? That seems like a bit of an assumption to me.

Also, "results are based on telephone interviews with 1,300 registered voters in Florida." This means 390 registered voters in this poll had voted already.

This means, out of the 1300 polled, 195 said they had already voted for Kerry, and 167.7 (168?) said they had already voted for Bush.

Third weird thing about this Gallup poll: As the organization puts it, this poll "represents a significant improvement for Kerry in the past week, who trailed Bush by eight points among likely voters in Florida in the Oct. 21-24 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. This also represents the first time Kerry has had a numerical advantage over Bush in the six Florida polls conducted by Gallup during this campaign." Kerry goes from down eight to up three in the course of a week? I'll agree that Bush's lead may not have been as big as eight percentage points. But I have my doubts about an 11 point swing not mirrored by other polls.
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Old 11-01-04, 09:51 AM
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CSPAN just reported it, someone else is doing the exit polling.
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Old 11-01-04, 10:14 AM
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Originally posted by nemein
CSPAN just reported it, someone else is doing the exit polling.
Who?

If it was a media organization, the agreed upon rules were violated.

If it was the party - don't pay any attention to them.
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Old 11-01-04, 10:35 AM
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Classicman2 I'll be back to see you in some of our old threads in less than 48 hours. Should be fun. Don't worry, I am sure you can keep up the faith until Fox News calls it around 11 eastern tomorrow.

I'll have the TIVO record Fox in the bedroom just to able to relive the carnage.
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Old 11-01-04, 10:40 AM
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Perhaps you can tell me who did the exit poll(s) that you were quoting?
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Old 11-01-04, 10:44 AM
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The Kerry campaign.

Honestly though, we are all smart people. Over 2 million people in Florida have already voted. A 100,000 vote lead is only 5% advantage. The waits statewide have been 1-4 hours.

Just like Tucker Carlson said (as he predicted a Kerry victory) "People will wait an hour to vote for Bush, while they will wait all day to vote against him"

There is anger in Florida (though you may not agree with it). They want it.

If Bush wins, I hope he gets you 50%+ and wins easily. I don't want anything in the courts. Lets hope for a clear winner tomorrow night.
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Old 11-01-04, 10:46 AM
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I knew it was an internal exit poll.

Thank you!

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Old 11-01-04, 10:47 AM
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And I'll still take my whipping like a man (not to mention presidential gambling losses) if Bush comes out on top. I just want the people to decide.
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Old 11-01-04, 10:57 AM
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You misunderstood me. I am not with the Kerry campaign and didn't get any info from them.

I then said "Honestly though" as in I was joking. I got my stuff from a variety of sources, but the main one right now is USA Today for the early voting.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...1-poll-x_x.htm

This coincides perfectly with my contacts in FL. I was there in 2000 and born and went to school at UF. It also jives with what we are seeing on TV with the Florida early voting lines.

They show Kerry up In Florida, 30% of registered voters said they already had cast their ballots, using early voting sites and absentee ballots. They supported Kerry 51%-43%. Less than 1/2 of 1% for Nader in early voting. The rest gave no response.

I see Kerry winning Florida overall by at least 200,000 votes. Jeb is the only thing standing in the way.
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