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Cnnusatodaygallup: Bush Over Kerry By 8

Old 10-17-04, 03:52 PM
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Cnnusatodaygallup: Bush Over Kerry By 8

Victory is in sight.

October 14-16
Choice for President

Likely Registered
Voters Voters

Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1


FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon

Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004

Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?

For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.

Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.

October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Now Oct. 9-10

Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?

October 14-16
Favorable Ratings

Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush

Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry

October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views

Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

October 14-16
Bush's Political Views

Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40

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Old 10-17-04, 04:01 PM
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Funny I search poll tracker on cnn and do not see this. I am sure they are just a little behind in the update. I am sure also if Kerry was ahead it would be on the front page in BOLD.
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Old 10-17-04, 04:23 PM
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I saw the same thing... but on CNN the tv
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Old 10-17-04, 04:26 PM
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Bush leading by 8 seems to be a poll outlier. That's the highest lead of any of the polls that were conducted in the last few days. It's obvious that Bush is ahead now, but a 4pt lead is more realistic.
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Old 10-17-04, 05:00 PM
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Old 10-17-04, 05:29 PM
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Please continue the discussion in the ONE AND ONLY poll thread
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