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View Poll Results: Who do you think is gonna win?
I'm Voting Rep and Bush Will Win
77
46.11%
I'm Voting Dem but Bush Will Win
22
13.17%
I'm Voting Ind/Undecided and Bush Will Win
9
5.39%
I'm Voting Rep but Kerry Will Win
2
1.20%
I'm Voting Dem and Kerry Will Win
38
22.75%
I'm Voting Ind/Undecided and Kerry Will Win
11
6.59%
I hope Twikoff wins
8
4.79%
Voters: 167. You may not vote on this poll

Who do you think is gonna win?

Old 10-15-04, 10:37 AM
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Who do you think is gonna win?

Simple question, who do you think is gonna win. Giving you answers to say who you're going to vote for as part of it.
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Old 10-15-04, 10:42 AM
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I picked, voting dem, but think Bush is gonna win.
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Old 10-15-04, 10:42 AM
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Voting Rep and Bush will win.
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Old 10-15-04, 10:44 AM
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Originally posted by Chrisedge
I picked, voting dem, but think Bush is gonna win.
What he said...Damn it!
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Old 10-15-04, 10:45 AM
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Seems to be as good of a place as anywhere to put this:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1015/p...spo.html?s=hns
Where debates leave rest of race
Kerry got a boost. Now, a range of analysts consider what might break the deadlock.
By Linda Feldmann and Sara B. Miller | Staff writers of The Christian Science Monitor
WASHINGTON AND BOSTON – Viewing the debates in their totality, Sen. John Kerry has to be exceedingly grateful that he was able to go toe to toe against the president of the United States for a total of 270 minutes, on a level playing field, on national television.

Absent those debates, President Bush may by now have been clearly on his way to reelection Nov. 2. Before the first matchup, he was consistently beating the Massachusetts Democrat in polls. Now the American public has had ample opportunity to view both men, unfiltered, addressing tough issues. The result is a race too close to call, both in nationwide opinion and in state-by-state Electoral College analyses, where no neutral polls show either man with a sure lock on the states required to gather the 270 votes needed.

Anything could happen. Bush could win the popular vote and lose in the Electoral College. So could Kerry. Or either man could win comfortably, in a collective shift of opinion among the "persuadable" voters not firmly wedded to a candidate.

What, ultimately, will decide this race? The Monitor interviewed a range of analysts, some partisan, some independent, for views on what the sprint to the finish line might look like.

"The only thing that will change momentum at this point would be an event, a continued rise in oil prices, the stock [market] falling under 10,000, something bad or good in Iraq, or ... a terrorist attack, which probably in the short run would work to the president's advantage," says Stephen Wayne, a political scientist at Georgetown University.

What the candidates need to do

The public, particularly in battleground states, can expect to see ever more frequent ads between now and Election Day, and TV coverage of Bush and Kerry speaking at events (often never leaving the airport tarmac) in a rotating handful of key states. Expect also daily polling and focus-group results that purport to show momentum veering one way or the other. The goal is create a bandwagon effect.

Kerry should try to become more personable, says Professor Wayne, reflecting the widespread view that American voters' feelings about candidates - their likability and values - can be even more important than their stands on issues.

Bush should acknowledge that some things have not gone according to plan, but that over the long haul, he sees how things can work out, says Wayne.

"That was part of his father's problem; during the recession, he refused to use the 'r' word," he says, referring to the first President Bush, who failed in his reelection bid. "People want a president who recognizes the problems and [can] be more candid."

Republican pollster Whit Ayres, based in suburban Washington, says Kerry needs to "try yet one more time to come up with a coherent position on Iraq." Bush, he says, should continue to drive home his leadership advantage. "Fundamentally, that is what the election will boil down to," he says.

This year, a referendum on Kerry

To Democratic activists, the risk for Bush in his "leadership advantage," as a sitting president, is that he comes across as stubborn and unable to adjust policies when they're not working.

"There is a small swing electorate he needs to reassure that he's not a right-wing ideologue," says Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute, a centrist Democratic think tank. But, he adds, he believes Bush's strengths and weaknesses are already fully on display, and that there's not much the president can do to alter the electorate's judgment.

Indeed, many analysts have commented on the unusual nature of this election, as a referendum on the challenger. Usually, when a president is running for reelection, the vote is a referendum on the incumbent. In this case, polls have consistently shown the president's job approval at about 50 percent, or just below.

So the real question in this election is whether enough of the public is willing to take a leap toward a challenger with little executive experience.

For Kerry to reassure enough "persuadables" to win, says Mr. Marshall, he needs to "convince people that he will [govern in a] Clintonian, new Democrat mold, not in a Massachusetts liberal one. Bush was fairly crude and repetitive about it. It is so obviously the new thrust of the Bush Republican attack."

Kerry also needs to drive home that his healthcare plan is not a government takeover of the American healthcare system, as Bush claimed it was in the Wednesday debate, Marshall says. "On the contrary, it is to help Americans who don't have insurance be able to buy private health insurance," he says.

Despite debate 'wins,' credibility gap

The initial polling on the final debate gave Kerry the edge. In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of registered voters, 52 percent thought Kerry won, with Bush at 39 percent. An ABC News poll of registered voters gave Kerry 42 percent, versus 41 percent for Bush. And a CBS poll of uncommitted voters showed 39 percent thought Kerry won, versus 25 percent for Bush.

Republican analyst Frank Luntz ran a focus group of "swing voters" in Tempe, Ariz., the location of the final debate, in which participants used computerized dials to register their reactions to Kerry and Bush's statements. Of the 23 participants, 13 thought Kerry had won; none thought Bush had won; and 10 said it was a draw.

But Mr. Luntz found that if the 23 participants had been forced to vote for president right after the debate, 16 would have voted for Bush, five would have chosen Kerry, one would have voted for the Libertarian candidate, and one had no comment. Participants, he said, clearly saw Kerry as the better debater, but found him hard to trust.

"Kerry still has a credibility gap that he must address," says Luntz. He "still has to convince voters that what he says is what he means and what he means is what he says." Bush's task, he says, is to "hold Kerry accountable but at the same time present his own plan for the future ... for Iraq and the economy."

He also predicts that nothing said in the Wednesday debate will live beyond the weekend. "Politics moves so quickly that what is said on Wednesday is already forgotten on Friday," he says.
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Old 10-15-04, 10:47 AM
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Originally posted by Chrisedge
I picked, voting dem, but think Bush is gonna win.
I second, er, third that.

- David Stein
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Old 10-15-04, 10:47 AM
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I'm voting Dem and Kerry will win.
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Old 10-15-04, 10:53 AM
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Something that you can take to the bank: Bush will not win the popular vote and lose the election.

Now Kerry might win the popular vote and lose the election, but I seriously doubt it.

I know the media is telling everyone it's 2000 all-over, but I don't believe it.
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Old 10-15-04, 11:06 AM
  #9  
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So, c-man what exactly are you saying? I think you're saying Bush wins pop. vote and election?

Bush always had a slight advantage as far as electoral votes.
Kerry has to win all the states that Gore won plus FL or OH.
Bush has to just win the states he won in 2000.
Bush 280-300 EV.
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Old 10-15-04, 11:15 AM
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Originally posted by Chew
Voting Rep and Bush will win.
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Old 10-15-04, 11:18 AM
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Using that nice interactive LA Times electoral map, I predict:

Bush 291
Kerry 247

Kerry essentially wins the entire NE (ME to MD), the Pacific states, NV, HI, MN, MI, and IL. Bush wins everything else.
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Old 10-15-04, 11:18 AM
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The CS Monitor article says that Bush could win the popular vote and lose the election. I'm saying I believe that is so highly improbable, that it's not worth mentioning.

As I've said a number of times, if I had to bet, I would bet Bush wins the election; but, I'm less certain than I was a couple of months ago. Fortunately, I don't have to bet. I'm saving my money to bet on the Breeder's Cup late this month. If the good Lord's willing, and the creek don't rise, I'll be there.

I believe it may very well be a close election, but I don't believe it will be as close as 2000.
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Old 10-15-04, 11:33 AM
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I keep going over the electoral maps and recent polls, and I think it will be very difficult for Kerry to win. Look at the battleground states. Let's assume Kerry wins PA (which I'll try to make sure doesn't happen ), it looks like he's losing Ohio and Florida. Those are a lot of votes to compensate for. Time will tell, though.
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Old 10-15-04, 11:37 AM
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Originally posted by Goldblum
I keep going over the electoral maps and recent polls, and I think it will be very difficult for Kerry to win. Look at the battleground states. Let's assume Kerry wins PA (which I'll try to make sure doesn't happen ), it looks like he's losing Ohio and Florida. Those are a lot of votes to compensate for. Time will tell, though.

I've said this for the last 6 months and nothing has changed: Kerry must win 3 of the following 5 states to win: MO, OH, PA, FL, MI. I only have him winning 2 of those. Also, when I made this call, I had WI in the Kerry column, which is no longer the case.
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Old 10-15-04, 11:52 AM
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I am wondering if Democratic Underground will flock people here to vote on this.
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Old 10-15-04, 11:53 AM
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Originally posted by kvrdave
I am wondering if Democratic Underground will flock people here to vote on this.
Seeing as it's a worthless poll, I doubt it.
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Old 10-15-04, 11:55 AM
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Yeah, "Who won the debate" will swing a lot of voters
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Old 10-15-04, 11:56 AM
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I think Bush will get between 350 and 400 electoral votes.

Seriously.
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Old 10-15-04, 11:58 AM
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I'm starting to think Kerry might pull this off. He performed very well in the debates, and to me at least, just looked more presidential than Bush did.

A month or two ago, I figured that there'd be no way for Bush to lose. Now I'm not so sure. The next few weeks will be very interesting, at the very least. But I'm guessing that it'll be extremely close, either way.
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Old 10-15-04, 11:59 AM
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It's going to be close. Not a fiasco like 2000, but close. Almost too close to call...but since I had to vote in the poll I give the edge to Bush at this point.

Edit for Spanky: Gee, I wonder who will take Utah?
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Old 10-15-04, 01:19 PM
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I agree w/ c-man, if Bush wins the pop vote he'll have the EC as well. It could split that Kerry wins the pop vote and Bush gets the EC (the worst of all scenarios because it'll put more pressure on the "system" to eliminate the EC, fortunately most politicians in DC know that that would be a bad idea).
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Old 10-15-04, 01:30 PM
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Originally posted by Groucho
Edit for Spanky: Gee, I wonder who will take Utah?
At this point, I'd have to go with Nancy Workman, Groucho.
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Old 10-15-04, 02:48 PM
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Rep and Bush will win.
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Old 10-15-04, 02:55 PM
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Dem and I see Bush winning, sorry to say.

You see, I'm an Eagles fan. After years of losing, my method is to expect the worst and if something good happens, be pleasantly surprised. So far nothing good has happened for Eagles fans.
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Old 10-15-04, 03:17 PM
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At least when the shit hits the fan in Bush's second term, I can say I voted for the other guy.
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