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My view of the upcoming election...

Old 10-13-04, 02:55 AM
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My view of the upcoming election...

I've been thinking about the upcoming elections and I'm actually starting to think that it's not even going to be close. All favoritism aside, I honestly think that Kerry's going to win decisively.

Based on talking to co-workers and friends, what I've been hearing a lot of are people who have never voted before, who are finally going to vote because they really dislike the way Bush has handled things. In fact, I don't know a single new voter who is voting for Bush. This includes my parents and my sister. They all live overseas and yet actually took the time to go the American consulate and cast their absentee ballot votes. It seems to me, based on my limited view, that the majority of new voters, are registering to vote for Kerry.

On top of this, I don't know ANYONE who voted for Gore last time who is voting for Bush. I know quite a few people who voted for Bush last time who are now voting for Kerry.

The new voters are not included in the polls, which seem to see saw back and forth but in general seem to show Bush and Kerry to be about even. Factor in the new voters, and the fact it seems that some typically Republican states, esp Colorado, are waivering, and I think it's not going to be nearly as close this time as 2000.

Just my opinion - bash away.
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Old 10-13-04, 04:30 AM
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Anecdotal experience is unlikely to be indicative of anything, especially when one hails from a left-leaning state.
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Old 10-13-04, 05:01 AM
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Re: My view of the upcoming election...

Originally posted by hahn
I've been thinking about the upcoming elections and I'm actually starting to think that it's not even going to be close.
You're kidding yourself.
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Old 10-13-04, 08:11 AM
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I don't know a single person (friends or family, new voters or old) who is voting for Kerry. Victory!!!
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Old 10-13-04, 08:17 AM
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Originally posted by SunMonkey
I don't know a single person (friends or family, new voters or old) who is voting for Kerry. Victory!!!
and you are in a state that matters
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Old 10-13-04, 08:38 AM
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hahn, you need to get out of Oregon for a little while. Come down to the Bible Belt and see who's voting for Bush. This election will come down to the wire. No one is going to run away with this one. If you put a gun to my head and said make a prediction, I'd say Bush would still win the election. He may once again lose the popular vote, but that damned Electoral College will save him once again. I just pray that the courts will not be needed to decide another election, but I am very doubtful of that happening. There are already teams of lawyers from both sides descending on the Sunshine State as we speak. This election will be even more bitter than 2000.
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Old 10-13-04, 08:54 AM
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I work in a swing state and most of the people in my Dept. are voting for Bush. Hardly scientific however.
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Old 10-13-04, 09:13 AM
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Never knew it was this simple! Victory is assured!

I personally have helped register 5 new voters, all of whom are voting for Mr. Bush, three of which have already sent in their ballots for Mr. Bush. All of this in the "swing" state of Ohio. It's over!

Last edited by Pharoh; 10-13-04 at 09:18 AM.
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Old 10-13-04, 09:43 AM
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I'm in Ohio and voting Kerry. So are most of my college friends. My parents are voting Bush, though.

Prediction:

Third election comes and goes tonight. Both candidates just reiterate the same tired campaign talking-points. Most polls come away with a tie. <b>Struz</b> declares it glorious victory for Bush, and <b>Jergen</b> trumpets this as a third win for Kerry.

The pre-election terrorist attack fails to materialize. Bush touts this as a success of Homeland Security; Kerry claims it as another example of using the terror alert system to keep America frightened.

The polls come and go. Widespread claims of voter fraud on both sides are announced, with special emphasis on Florida. Diebold equipment performs horribly, with some very weird and unexpected results in less important elections (all skewed Republican, oddly enough.) Everyone comes away feeling even more disenfranchised than in 2000.

Bush wins. GOP retains control of both houses of Congress. The DNC actually raises a request for a recount that is promptly ignored. Kerry immediately fades, Bob Dole-like, from the public eye.

The War in Iraq continues without an end in sight, and the public just stops caring.

Corporations report record profits, but jobs in America continue to shrink and outsourcing runs rampant.

Stem cell research continues to stagnate under strangled federal funding and lack of material. The AMA publishes an article bemoaning the growing gap between therapies in China and in America. Bush gives another rare prime-time speech and makes vague references to human dignity, quoting a passage from the Bible. The public's eyes collectively glaze over. Nothing changes.

Gas prices continue to rise. Everyone blames everyone else.

Laws pandering to religious groups and big media are passed. The religious right begins a major offensive on the "myth of the separation of church and state." At least one state attempts to ban the teaching of evolution in public schools.

CIA and FBI police power continues to grow unmonitored, and the public is both kept uninformed and helpless to prevent it. Leaders of lefty organizations who question this trend are characterized as communists, repeatedly investigated by the DoJ, and audited by the IRS.

The middle class tax cuts have been scaled back to token rewards, while Forbes announces a banner year for the wealthiest 1% of Americans. Bush continues to tout the huge success of his middle-class tax cuts on stimulating the economy, though he can't produce any evidence of that fact.

The deficit hits record highs for the next four years. Everyone blames everyone else.

'Round about 2006, at least two Supreme Court justices retire or die (under mysterious circumstances ) and Bush appoints incredibly right-wing justices that vow to end "political activism" and create a new age of harmony between law and religion (i.e., prayer in public schools is OK again.)

Bush steps down in 2008. Contrary to virtually every metric known to man, conservatives tout the past eight years as a golden age of America.

- David Stein
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Old 10-13-04, 09:52 AM
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Yeah, I miss the 80s too...but I don't remember the stem cell stuff.
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Old 10-13-04, 09:53 AM
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The plural of "anecdote" is not "data."

My prediction? This will be a close race. A very close race, but without a debacle as occured in Florida in 2000. I honestly don't know who will win.
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Old 10-13-04, 09:55 AM
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Prediction:
You might as well just shoot yourself now
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Old 10-13-04, 09:55 AM
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Look at electoral college history and particularly maps, and it is easy to see how the author of this thread will be wrong. Kerry might win, but he cannot win decisively.

Also, Oregon is hardly representative of the nation as a whole. In some respects, I wish it was (and I sure there are many who wish it would fall into the Pacific ), but it ain't.



Bush appoints incredibly right-wing justices that vow to end "political activism" and create a new age of harmony between law and religion (i.e., prayer in public schools is OK again.)
In what fairy tale land are you living? It is all wishy-washy O'Connors from here on out. Yeah - he'll nominate right-wingers but they'll get filibustered or Borked.
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Old 10-13-04, 09:57 AM
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One thing you can be sure of - if Kerry wins by a hair and it is due to the Colorado split of EVs, the lawyers will be scurrying off to the Mile Hile City to litigate just like they did in FL in 2000.
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Old 10-13-04, 09:59 AM
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sfsdfd,

I am mildly surprised that both of your parents are voting that way. Pleasantly surprised would be that better choice of words, especially given your father's career. I would have assumed he would vote Republican, or perhaps hoped, but your arguments can be quite convincing. I though maybe you got much of that from him.


Not that there is any point to all of the above.



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Old 10-13-04, 10:34 AM
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*shrug* I already said it was just my opinion. I didn't say that my anecdotal evidence applies everywhere. Nor did I say it's over. But in my opinion, the undecided voters and new voters together will swing much more towards Kerry.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But I guess we'll find out in a few weeks.

BTW, Oregon is not as solidly Democrat as some of you seem to believe. Up until the post-Reagan era, they had voted Republican. In the 2000 election, Gore BARELY beat Bush (720,342 versus 713,577).

Last edited by hahn; 10-13-04 at 10:40 AM.
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Old 10-13-04, 10:41 AM
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I still say Bush will win, and by a wide enough margin that recounting will be un-necessary. There will be accusations of voter fraud from both sides, but in the end I think it will be much more obvious than in 2000. Yes, I believe on election night, we will know who won.

.. Then I shall take over the white house and rule this planet properly.
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Old 10-13-04, 10:43 AM
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Originally posted by General Zod
.. Then I shall take over the white house and rule this planet properly.
There's one time where your sig should've been included in the body of the post.
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Old 10-13-04, 10:44 AM
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Well, count 7 new voters for Bush in my family. 0 new voters for Kerry. The people who voted for Gore in 2000 will be voting for Kerry because they are strict party-line voters. Booooo.

Thanksgiving dinner discussion should be fun.
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Old 10-13-04, 10:47 AM
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Originally posted by Thor Simpson
Well, count 7 new voters for Bush in my family. 0 new voters for Kerry. The people who voted for Gore in 2000 will be voting for Kerry because they are strict party-line voters. Booooo.

Thanksgiving dinner discussion should be fun.

Except for my father and myself (not voting Libertarian), I don't know anyone (friend or family) switching their party vote from 2000.
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Old 10-13-04, 10:50 AM
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Originally posted by Red Dog
Look at electoral college history and particularly maps, and it is easy to see how the author of this thread will be wrong. Kerry might win, but he cannot win decisively.
If Kerry wins PA, OH, MI, and FL, it will most definitely be decisive.

I still think Bush will win because I think most people aren't as frightened of sfsdfd's world projection as I am.
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Old 10-13-04, 10:54 AM
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Originally posted by Pharoh
I am mildly surprised that both of your parents are voting that way. Pleasantly surprised would be that better choice of words, especially given your father's career.
You know, you're really cool, Pharoh.

My dad - stepfather, actually, but he's been in my life since I was five so the difference is solely technical - is an economist, but is also Jewish (more in heritage than in religion.) True to form, he's very even-keel. He's currently undecided, but typically votes Republican, so I presume he'll break that way.

My mom grew up in the '50s under a very strict Catholic father. War hero, in fact - took a bayonet in the foot at Iwo Jima. (Sadly, I never knew him.) But he had a profound impact on her, and she clings to authority like crazy. So in her book, Bush shouldn't just be reelected, but also canonized. - That's an exaggeration, but not by much.

Of course, she accuses me of differing from her solely for the purpose of rebelling.
Originally posted by Pharoh
I would have assumed he would vote Republican, or perhaps hoped, but your arguments can be quite convincing. I though maybe you got much of that from him.


I think my framing of issues arises more from my gradual political switch during undergrad and law school. I spent a lot of time thinking about evolution vs. creation, pro-life vs. pro-choice, the functional roles of religion and government, human nature, etc. So I can honestly understand the opposing viewpoints, and, on rare occasions, side with the right on an issue.

My ability to frame issues arises partly from law school - and partly from having posted <i>ad nauseam</i> on DVD Talk. Honestly, interacting with folks like you has sharpened my skills, which is why I keep coming back!

So enough about me - how did you arrive at your political background, <b>Pharoh</b>? I really wanna know.

- David Stein
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Old 10-13-04, 10:54 AM
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Originally posted by Red Dog
Except for my father and myself (not voting Libertarian), I don't know anyone (friend or family) switching their party vote from 2000.
EXACTLY. Recall that Gore missed a "decisive" victory in 2000 by 500 votes in Florida. He won the popular vote and would have won the EC by quite a bit if FL was won. Since Gore lost FL by the slimmest of margins and most of us agree that no one is changing their mind, Hahn's prediction could come true and the new voters could decide this thing.
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Old 10-13-04, 10:56 AM
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Originally posted by CRM114
If Kerry wins PA, OH, MI, and FL, it will most definitely be decisive.
A very unrealistic IF. He needs to win 3 of those just to barely get over 270.
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Old 10-13-04, 10:57 AM
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Originally posted by Red Dog
Except for my father and myself (not voting Libertarian), I don't know anyone (friend or family) switching their party vote from 2000.
I voted Bush in November 2000. And I finally switched to the DNC 'round about February 2001. That's actually not Bush's fault; the shift had been coming along for about five years. I anticipate that I'm an anomaly, though. ( )

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