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Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

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Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

Old 03-24-20, 02:28 PM
  #101  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Well, I'm convinced.
Grundle is Thanos, but without the charm.
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Old 03-24-20, 02:33 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I'm sure you are on board with keeping the "shelter in place", until we flatten the curve, and also make sure there are enough ICU beds, before we relax restrictions, right? That would mean getting R < 1 and keeping it there. Otherwise society as we know it will be screwed and not just the economy.
I think we have to look at the fact that Singapore has kept its schools open, and yet it has been one of the best countries at dealing with this. Maybe one factor here is that with kids in school, their parents can go to work at their health care jobs, instead of staying home to care for their kids.

Some people have said that most of the population will eventually end up contracting this anyway.. If that's true, then I think there's a plausible argument against shelter in place for the general population. Instead, we should try to build up a herd immunity. Those with serious risk factors should indeed shelter in place.
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Old 03-24-20, 02:38 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by dsa_shea View Post
Eeny meeny miny moe. Is it Johnny or Grundle who will go? You see how that works. Do you want to be a 50/50er? Would you want someone you love to be in that position?

I would not want myself, anyone that I know, or anyone that I don't know, to be in that position.

But in the real world, Italy does not have enough ventilators, so someone has to decide who gets them and who does not get them. It's not a pleasant choice to have to make. The people who are being forced to make these decisions will probably feel terrible guilt about it for the rest of their lives. But the reality is that there are not enough ventilators, so someone has to make this decision.
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Old 03-24-20, 02:40 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Dan View Post
Well, I'm convinced.
Grundle is Thanos, but without the charm.

And yet I'm 100% certain that you, too, just like me, are in favor of minimizing the number of years of human life that gets lost.
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Old 03-24-20, 02:47 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by grundle View Post
I think we have to look at the fact that Singapore has kept its schools open, and yet it has been one of the best countries at dealing with this. Maybe one factor here is that with kids in school, their parents can go to work at their health care jobs, instead of staying home to care for their kids.

Some people have said that most of the population will eventually end up contracting this anyway.. If that's true, then I think there's a plausible argument against shelter in place for the general population. Instead, we should try to build up a herd immunity. Those with serious risk factors should indeed shelter in place.
That assumes that people will be immune after they get over it ,which is assuming a lot. The more people that get infected, the greater the number of mutations and you're only immune the the particular strain that you got before.
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Old 03-24-20, 02:55 PM
  #106  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by grundle View Post
And yet I'm 100% certain that you, too, just like me, are in favor of minimizing the number of years of human life that gets lost.
I'm in favor of taking an inherently political discussion, about the value of each individual's human life beyond x number of years, to an appropriately political thread.
That discussion belongs there, not here, regardless of how desperately you want to participate in it.
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Old 03-24-20, 03:09 PM
  #107  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

We can revive the economy. We cannot revive a person.

Grundle, I am not one of the many people who automatically discount everything you say. I do take time to read it, though I may not agree with it. At this point, I am not even sure what you are arguing for. You site the fact that Italy is having to make those decisions to let the elderly die, yet that is what you seem to want us to drive towards. It seems to me you keep advocating that the economy is more important than those lives. Closing the economy over saving lives is the exact thing that will put us in Italy-like circumstances.

To be clear, the lives being saved aren’t just the elderly, infected, and infirm ... they are those same depressed suicidal people you feel you are advocating for. If the hospitals are overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients, a patient who CHOSE to overdose is not going to come close to getting treatment. They are that family of four who got into a horrible car wreck, but won’t be treated because there are no hospital resources for them. They are my diabetic daughter who wound up in DKA one night because her insulin pump malfunctioned.

We don’t want to wind up in the position of making those decisions because a coach thinks his team needs to be playing softball NOW or a video game store thinks back ordering hand sanitizer is “good enough” while frontline associates not only come in contact with infected people, but then continue to spread the virus. We don’t want to be in the position of making those decisions because a used car salesman feels he needs to come to work because he is working against the draw of a car dealer owner (who is squirreled away, I may add) who is “trying to keep the economy going”.
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Old 03-24-20, 04:05 PM
  #108  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
That assumes that people will be immune after they get over it ,which is assuming a lot. The more people that get infected, the greater the number of mutations and you're only immune the the particular strain that you got before.
You mean to tell all of us that with conquering so many other way more deadly viruses and other diseases in the last century...you think this one is somehow going to go unchecked, unmanageable, and destroy the world. Sorry, I don't think so.

SARS-CoV-2 might be the next smaller version of the flu, which may kill thousands every year in the US and it may have to be a given...just like the flu. But for the most part, I'm 100% certain it will be managed, it will be isolated, and we'll get back to normal daily routines. However, I think everyone's eyes were opened a little when it comes to keeping clean and spreading their sickness to others (meaning, stay the fuck home when you're sick).

A vaccine of some sort, just like the flu, will be created, and probably additional preventions that will make SARS-CoV-2 not as lethal. The only reason why this virus is so deadly and spreading so much...is due to large amounts of people moving around via transportation that can take them from one end of the world to the other in 24hrs or less. With isolation, this will kill most of the virus as it must find new hosts to live in.
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Old 03-24-20, 04:44 PM
  #109  
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

Heh heh. This is my first new post in this thread (all my previous posts in this thread were actually moved from another thread).

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Old 03-24-20, 04:46 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Dan View Post
I'm in favor of taking an inherently political discussion, about the value of each individual's human life beyond x number of years, to an appropriately political thread.
That discussion belongs there, not here, regardless of how desperately you want to participate in it.

What do the mods think? Have my posts in this topic been political? If the mods say yes, then I'll stop. I certainly did not view them as political, but I'll go by whatever the mods say.
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Old 03-24-20, 05:04 PM
  #111  
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

OP,
if they agreed with me, I doubt they would have created a new thread from all your posts and stuck it in Other instead of Politics. As a logical and rational thinker, I'd have expected you to come to the same conclusion.

Anyway, now that this isn't in the main non-political COVID-19 thread, I have no further reason to contribute any thoughts to this thread. Have a good one!
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Old 03-24-20, 05:14 PM
  #112  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by grundle View Post
It's possible that most of the U.S. population has already been infected, but hasn't gotten sick, and so hasn't gotten tested.

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who are infected. So far they're saying that it's a few percent.

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It's possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have no symptoms, and thus, don't get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it's possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the few per cent that is being reported.


This Harvard professor agrees with me:


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...box=1585056478

Coronavirus: Harvard professor says US cases may be 10 times higher than reported – and that’s ‘good not bad’

‘We have no idea how many people are infected with the coronavirus or how fast the virus is spreading,’ writes leading epidemiologist

March 24, 2020

In a column for the Washington Post, Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch writes that as even as the number of US cases of coronavirus continues to mount, the real number may be exponentially greater – and that the implications of that fact are both complex and counterintuitive.

“We don’t know even approximately how many people are infected, but it’s certainly more than the current count of more than 35,000 confirmed cases. Even though many places are reporting relatively small numbers of confirmed cases, this is not comforting.”

“Paradoxically, given the level of distress we are seeing in the health care system, it is good not bad that we have many more cases. That means that the horrible outcomes we are seeing (because they are getting tested) are the tip of a bigger iceberg of milder cases.

“We can only hope the proportion of unobserved cases is large, because then we are closer to achieving herd immunity, and each bad outcome brings with it a larger number of mild outcomes that contribute to herd immunity. The math of epidemics is weird.”
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Old 03-24-20, 05:38 PM
  #113  
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

Originally Posted by Dan View Post
OP,
if they agreed with me, I doubt they would have created a new thread from all your posts and stuck it in Other instead of Politics.
You forgot the yarn!
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Old 03-24-20, 05:54 PM
  #114  
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

New York is starting trials testing some old drugs that have been used in the past to treat other illnesses. This is good, because since they are old drugs, there already exist studies regarding their safety and side effects. Now we just need to find out if they actually work on this new virus:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/healt...ned/index.html

Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine: what to know about the potential coronavirus drugs

March 24, 2020

As the world's heath experts race to find treatments -- and eventually, a cure -- for the novel coronavirus, two drugs have jumped to the front of the conversation: chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine.

New York moved to begin trials Tuesday, procuring 70,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine and 750,000 doses of chloroquine. In addition, Bayer, the drug maker, has donated 3 million doses of Resochin, its brand name for chloroquine, to the federal government.

Perhaps demonstrating why health officials are urging caution -- saying chloroquine requires further clinical study and might not be the panacea it's billed to be -- officials in Nigeria's Lagos state have reported three overdoses in the days since the drug entered the conversation surrounding the pandemic.

In Arizona, a man died after reportedly taking a nonmedical form of chloroquine used to fight parasites in aquariums.
So, what exactly are these drugs, and what promise do they hold?

Vital to battle against malaria

Chloroquine is used to treat malaria, as well as in chemoprophylaxis, which is the administering of drugs to prevent the development of disease, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Since 2006, it has not been recommended for use in severe malaria because of problems with resistance, particularly in the Oceania region, according to the World Health Organization.

WHO includes it on its list of "essential medicines," meaning it should be kept affordable and accessible at all times.

According to the Swiss-registered organization, Medicines for Malaria Venture, chloroquine is a derivative of quinine, which French chemists in 1820 isolated from the bark of the cinchona tree found in South America, employing it as a treatment for fevers.

German scientists created the synthetic chloroquine in 1934 as part of a class of anti-malarials, MMV said, and chloroquine and DDT became "the two principal weapons in WHO's global eradication malaria campaign" following World War II, the organization said.

Hydroxychloroquine is what's known as an analog of chloroquine, meaning the two have similar structures but different chemical and biological properties. The former is considered the less toxic derivative, according to studies.

It's given to patients with rheumatoid arthritis, lupus and the blood disorder porphyria cutanea tarda, the CDC said.

'It's not going to kill anybody'

The drugs have been shown, in labs, to be effective against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses -- including the SARS strain that causes Covid-19 -- as well as other coronaviruses, the CDC said.

Hydroxychloroquine is being studied to determine if it can prevent the onset of Covid-19 before or after a patient is infected with the SARS coronavirus strain that causes it, and if it can be used to treat Covid-19 sufferers, the CDC said.

Because the drug has been in use for years, it potentially poses fewer risks than a newly developed drug.

The CDC cited a study, documented in the journal Bioscience Trends this month, that chloroquine phosphate has demonstrated "apparent efficacy and acceptable safety against COVID-19-associated pneumonia" in trials in China.
It is thus considered a recommended antiviral for Covid-19 treatment in China, and several countries are recommending both drugs for hospitalized Covid-19 patients, the CDC said.
Chloroquine also appears to have "broad-spectrum antiviral properties" and effects on immune response, Bayer said in its statement announcing the drug donations.
"New data from initial preclinical and evolving clinical research conducted in China, while limited, shows potential for the use of Resochin in treating patients with COVID-19 infection," the statement said.

Evidence only anecdotal, expert said

Regarding the combination of hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin, a single "small study" shows the combination helped against the SARS strain that causes Covid-19, the CDC said, but "did not assess clinical benefits."

The CDC said the combination can disrupt the heart's electrical activity and warns against prescribing the paired drugs to anyone with chronic medical conditions, such as renal failure or hepatic disease.

Chloroquine's side effects include seizures, nausea, vomiting, deafness, vision changes and low blood pressure. Both chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, however, are reportedly well-tolerated in Covid-19 patients, according to the CDC.

All that said, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said evidence of the drugs' effectiveness is only anecdotal.

With respect to the SARS strain, the drugs' effectiveness was never vetted in a clinical trial, he said.

The drugs may be effective against the novel coronavirus, Fauci said, but more data is needed to "show it is truly safe and effective under the conditions of Covid-19."

For these reasons, the US Food and Drug Administration has not approved the drugs for coronavirus treatment.

'It showed promise in the test tubes'

In a Thursday statement, the FDA said it had been working with government agencies and universities to learn whether chloroquine can reduce symptoms and stem the spread of Covid-19 in those with mild to moderate cases of the virus.

"We also must ensure these products are effective; otherwise we risk treating patients with a product that might not work when they could have pursued other, more appropriate treatments," FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn said in the statement.

During a meeting of the coronavirus task force, Hahn called for "a large, pragmatic clinical trial to actually gather that information and answer the question that needs to be answered -- asked and answered."

The FDA is also talking with drug manufacturers about ramping up production of the drugs to handle a spike in demand and to ensure that people with life-threatening conditions such as lupus can still obtain it.

Dr. Deborah Birx said in a Fox News interview last week that people should not confuse the drugs showing "promise" in other countries with actual efficacy.

"That doesn't mean that it will show promise in Americans," she told the news outlet. "It showed promise in the test tubes. We are very interested in making sure we have eliminated red tape to make the drug available through their physicians, and study it at the same time. At the same time, we are doing clinical trials on other products we think also will show promise."

One drug, lopinavir-ritonavir, did not show promise for treating Covid-19-related pneumonia in China, the CDC said. Another medication, remdesivir, has "broad antiviral activity," the CDC said, but requires further study.
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Old 03-24-20, 06:22 PM
  #115  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by grundle View Post
This Harvard professor agrees with me:
I agree with that Harvard prof. The media is spinning the situation as: "OMFG! More cases! Oh No! Society is doomed!"

But in reality, if we have many more times the cases discovered with the same death rate as the previous ratio where cases were NOT discovered, the virus' mortality rate...goes DOWN. So, it may sound odd, but I welcome a shitload more cases to be discovered. I agree with you grundle in that we could have a good herd immunity forming if the number of cases increases exponentially. And while still keeping with low mortality rates, this would be even better.
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Old 03-24-20, 06:49 PM
  #116  
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

Grundle, this is an article I found that is current explaining one of the reasons why Singapore has been able to contain the virus and not shut everything down:

https://www.businessinsider.com/sing...t-works-2020-3

Hint, if people think privacy is dead in the U.S. then you do not want to live in Singapore. I for one would be uncomfortable if President Trump and his cronies could take a peek at my medical records and I am willing to bet that even die-hard Trump supporters would be uncomfortable with the current leadership in D.C. and the Senate potentially having access to such personal info.

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Old 03-24-20, 07:43 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
I agree with that Harvard prof. The media is spinning the situation as: "OMFG! More cases! Oh No! Society is doomed!"

But in reality, if we have many more times the cases discovered with the same death rate as the previous ratio where cases were NOT discovered, the virus' mortality rate...goes DOWN. So, it may sound odd, but I welcome a shitload more cases to be discovered. I agree with you grundle in that we could have a good herd immunity forming if the number of cases increases exponentially. And while still keeping with low mortality rates, this would be even better.

This is assuming an immunity IS developed ... we don’t even know that yet.

That is also assuming the virus doesn’t perpetually mutate, like the flu virus.
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Old 03-24-20, 07:59 PM
  #118  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Abob Teff View Post
This is assuming an immunity IS developed ... we don’t even know that yet.

That is also assuming the virus doesn’t perpetually mutate, like the flu virus.
Viruses mutate by their nature, I think. I'm afraid of it mutating to something just as contagious (long incubation period, some asymptomatic carriers) but more deadly. Like SARS1 one but with SARS-2 incubation periods.
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Old 03-24-20, 08:38 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
You mean to tell all of us that with conquering so many other way more deadly viruses and other diseases in the last century...you think this one is somehow going to go unchecked, unmanageable, and destroy the world. Sorry, I don't think so.

SARS-CoV-2 might be the next smaller version of the flu, which may kill thousands every year in the US and it may have to be a given...just like the flu. But for the most part, I'm 100% certain it will be managed, it will be isolated, and we'll get back to normal daily routines. However, I think everyone's eyes were opened a little when it comes to keeping clean and spreading their sickness to others (meaning, stay the fuck home when you're sick).

A vaccine of some sort, just like the flu, will be created, and probably additional preventions that will make SARS-CoV-2 not as lethal. The only reason why this virus is so deadly and spreading so much...is due to large amounts of people moving around via transportation that can take them from one end of the world to the other in 24hrs or less. With isolation, this will kill most of the virus as it must find new hosts to live in.
Well I hope you're right.
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Old 03-24-20, 09:28 PM
  #120  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by tasha99 View Post
Viruses mutate by their nature, I think. I'm afraid of it mutating to something just as contagious (long incubation period, some asymptomatic carriers) but more deadly. Like SARS1 one but with SARS-2 incubation periods.
Yeah, that concerns me as well. If this thing mutates it could end up being something like the flu or common cold that we have to deal with indefinitely, and you're playing whack-a-mole with it.

Also possible it could mutate into something less deadly, too, I suppose.

This kind of stuff freaks the hell out of me. Can you image something like HIV, that has a 100% fatality rate, an asymptomic incubation period that for lasts years, but as communicable as the common cold?
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Old 03-24-20, 09:59 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by grundle View Post
I very much agree with you on this on hypocrisy of going out to buy food while supposedly being under "quarantine" or "shelter in place."

I remember that in the 1970s they said the killer bees (and the fire ants too) were advancing further and further north every year, and feeling scared about both.
More importantly I remember the 1976 "Swine flu" 'epidemic' and how President Ford totally went overboard in vaccine development and deployment, insisting the "every US citizen" get the vaccine. It turned out to be much ado about nothing, as that swine flu petered out very quickly and Ford was severely lambasted for his "overreaction".

In other words, that situation was COMPLETELY the opposite of this COVID-19 mess that we're in now. Trump *should* have reacted like Ford did in 1976 with that Swine flu scare. But, instead precisely the opposite has happened, and we're in deep shit now and many weeks behind where we should be. And we've an asshole president whose sole goal is to save face, lie, and act like a stupid little child in handling the current mess.
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Old 03-24-20, 10:02 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Dr. Mantle View Post
Should we just start executing people who are old and sick? They're gonna die anyway, why even waste an aspirin on them?

Do you think about the horrible things you write before you write them?
Spain has told everyone over the age of 80 to go home and die because they're "too old" to treat, even if they have COVID-19 symptoms. At least that's what I've been told.
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Old 03-24-20, 11:21 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by zyzzle View Post
Spain has told everyone over the age of 80 to go home and die because they're "too old" to treat, even if they have COVID-19 symptoms. At least that's what I've been told.
And if this is true it is a sign of how dire things are in Spain, do we really want things to get that bad in the U.S. before people get serious about flattening the curve?

Also, I say this only half-jokingly but the age bracket most likely to vote (and as evidenced by the 2016 election, most likely to vote Republican) is the age group most likely to be laid out by this virus so our President better do a better job of keeping of this group alive and kicking until at least after the election has passed.

I wish I was being totally flip with my response but if the President wants to leave this group out to dry then it is very short sighted and the GOP is shooting themselves in the foot...sure we might get a short term pop in the economy but you have to hope and pray that this virus does not linger and start hitting people again in the fall...just in time for our economy to tank again right before the election, and this is what the GOP really wants? This will help them how?

I keep waiting for an influential Republican talking head to walk back what President Trump has been saying on TV the past couple of days but it is more than a bit disconcerting that no one of any particular importance has stepped up to do this. I think it is bound to make even the contrarians on this site a teeny bit nervous.

ETA: Doh...I am a bit tired and did not pick up on the fact that you were being sarcastic with your reply, so I was not trying to attack you with my reply zyzzle. It is all good my on-line friend.

Last edited by Inhumans99; 03-24-20 at 11:38 PM.
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Old 03-24-20, 11:50 PM
  #124  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Ok, ok, hold the god damn door... but how many daily "typical flu" deaths are being reported... I call bullshit on all of this crap. How convenient, all of a sudden there's a surge in COVID-19 deaths and yet, not one word of "meh, he died from complications from the current yearly flu virus." Someone point me to "standard flu" death stats in any hospital in America today 'cause I sure as hell can't find that information.
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Old 03-25-20, 02:29 AM
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

In a typical flu season, they usually don't need the army to haul away bodies because the crematoriums are over capacity.

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