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Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

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Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

Old 04-12-20, 07:23 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by grundle View Post
My math is correct. If my conclusion is wrong, it's because the data in the article that I posted is wrong.

How many people were tested?

How many of those tested positive?

Extrapolated to the entire country, how many people are positive?

Of those, what percentage died?
You really think I'm going to engage with you at this point? I shouldn't have responded in the first place. I've reported you for posting in this thread again. Good luck!
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Old 04-12-20, 07:23 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by grundle View Post
Your article is dated April 2. Mine is dated April 11. I think they may be talking about different sizes of people being tested.
They had not reached 10% as of the date of the article I posted. The sample size grew, but the conclusions didn’t really change.

Originally Posted by grundle View Post
And of those tested, did or not did 50% test positive?
No. And this quote is since Iceland reached the 10% testing mark:

And it’s already made some important discoveries. Among them: that between 0.3% and 0.8% of Iceland’s population is infected with the coronavirus, while half of those who tested positive were asymptomatic as the time of their tests.
Again, that doesn’t mean half of those who were tested came back positive, and it doesn’t mean that those who were asymptomatic at the time of testing will remain that way. And, of course, those who are asymptomatic are very much capable of spreading the virus.

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Old 04-12-20, 07:25 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

McDonald's may sell two billion hamburgers a year ... but if you come through the drive-thru and order five million of them at once, it's gonna cause a problem.
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Old 04-12-20, 07:33 PM
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

USA Today totally disagrees with The Daily Mail on the infection rate:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ta/2959797001/

Iceland has tested more of its population for coronavirus than anywhere else. Here's what it learned

April 11, 2020

Iceland has achieved something no other country has: tested 10% of its population for coronavirus, a figure far higher than anywhere else in the world.

Stefansson said Iceland's randomized tests revealed that between 0.3%-0.8% of Iceland's population is infected with the respiratory illness


So the real infection rate is about 100 times smaller than the 50% rate that was cited by the Daily Mail.

Which means that the real fatality rate is about 100 times bigger. So the real fatality rate is about 0.4%.

My real problem is that I trusted the Daily Mail.
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Old 04-12-20, 07:35 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Adam Tyner View Post
They had not reached 10% as of the date of the article I posted. The sample size grew, but the conclusions didn’t really change.

No. And this quote is since Iceland reached the 10% testing mark:



Again, that doesn’t mean half of those who were tested came back positive, and it doesn’t mean that those who were asymptomatic at the time of testing will remain that way. And, of course, those who are asymptomatic are very much capable of spreading the virus.

USA Today totally disagrees with The Daily Mail on the infection rate:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ta/2959797001/

Iceland has tested more of its population for coronavirus than anywhere else. Here's what it learned

April 11, 2020

Iceland has achieved something no other country has: tested 10% of its population for coronavirus, a figure far higher than anywhere else in the world.

Stefansson said Iceland's randomized tests revealed that between 0.3%-0.8% of Iceland's population is infected with the respiratory illness


So the real infection rate is about 100 times smaller than the 50% rate that was cited by the Daily Mail.

Which means that the real fatality rate is about 100 times bigger. So the real fatality rate is about 0.4%.

My real problem is that I trusted the Daily Mail.

I was wrong to trust the Daily Mail.

Thanks for posting that info from Market Watch, which agrees with my info from USA Today.
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Old 04-12-20, 07:39 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Why do we bother having a separate thread for grundle if he's just going to spout nonsense in this one as well? The Daily Mail? Holy fuck, why not just pull statistics from a NY Post article.

Originally Posted by Mabuse View Post
Oh fuck.

Adam Carolla summed it up perfectly recently: We are at the mercy of our dumbest people.

We need to stay home, but our dumbest people have bad information and bad instincts. If there’s too many dumb people it will keep spreading.
Yep. And unfortunately, it's the dumbest people who know jack shit about their "rights". "I'm not gonna stay cooped up in my home, this is America, I know my rights" blah blah blah. You're wrong, shut the fuck up, and try doing something for the common good for once. Stupid, selfish assholes.
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Old 04-12-20, 07:46 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by grundle View Post
Which means that the real fatality rate is about 100 times bigger. So the real fatality rate is about 0.4%.
Calculating fatality rates with deaths as the numerator and positive tests as the denominator (as The Daily Mail did) doesn’t tell the full story. It’s only really meaningful when each case is resolved, either by recovery or by death. Otherwise, the percentage doesn’t/can’t account for people who will show symptoms but are still in the incubation period, and it doesn’t/can’t factor in patients in intensive care who will die but haven’t yet.

You’re very fixated on mortality rates, but that’s only part of the puzzle. As virtually every article talking about flattening the curve has mentioned, one critical goal is to prevent our hospital system from being overloaded with too many patients at once. There are only so many hospital beds to go around, and not all of them can be dedicated to those afflicted by the virus.
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Old 04-12-20, 07:48 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Adam Tyner View Post
You’re very fixated on mortality rates, but that’s only part of the puzzle. As virtually every article talking about flattening the curve has mentioned, one critical goal is to prevent our hospital system from being overloaded with too many patients at once.
Don't bother. This point has been brought up again and again and again to grundle and it just doesn't compute for him. That's exactly why he has his own thread.
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Old 04-12-20, 08:02 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Adam Tyner View Post
No, they didn't. This is why you don't use The Daily Mail as a source. From Iceland Review:

Several large media outlets have been stating that one of the findings emerging from Iceland’s coronavirus screening of the general population is that around 50% of individuals infected with the virus have no symptoms...
.

It should be pointed out that it was not just The Daily Mail's reporting.

These news sites during first few days of April had similar headlines, by-lines and / or attributed type articles on their websites

THE WEEK

USA Today

The Washington Post

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Old 04-12-20, 08:02 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Adam Tyner View Post
Calculating fatality rates with deaths as the numerator and positive tests as the denominator (as The Daily Mail did) doesn’t tell the full story. It’s only really meaningful when each case is resolved, either by recovery or by death. Otherwise, the percentage doesn’t/can’t account for people who will show symptoms but are still in the incubation period, and it doesn’t/can’t factor in patients in intensive care who will die but haven’t yet.

You’re very fixated on mortality rates, but that’s only part of the puzzle. As virtually every article talking about flattening the curve has mentioned, one critical goal is to prevent our hospital system from being overloaded with too many patients at once. There are only so many hospital beds to go around, and not all of them can be dedicated to those afflicted by the virus.

I agree with you that the fatality rate in Iceland could get higher if more people die.

I also agree with you about how part of the goal is to not overload the hospital system.

Most of all, I agree with you for posting facts to prove that I was wrong, and for not resorting to personal attacks like some other people.

Thanks for teaching me.
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Old 04-12-20, 08:05 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Adam Tyner View Post
You’re very fixated on mortality rates, but that’s only part of the puzzle. As virtually every article talking about flattening the curve has mentioned, one critical goal is to prevent our hospital system from being overloaded with too many patients at once. There are only so many hospital beds to go around, and not all of them can be dedicated to those afflicted by the virus.
Originally Posted by kefrank View Post
Don't bother. This point has been brought up again and again and again to grundle and it just doesn't compute for him. That's exactly why he has his own thread.
I suspect that he is doing everything he mentally can to mitigate the impact of the virus because the solution to controlling its spread and impact -- flattening the curve, as the kids say -- comes down to collective action.

It's also likely the same reason he's fixated on a bat escaping a lab and not the unregulated wet markets in China. Regulation is always bad, and people following whatever whim, desire, or bug up their ass is always good, especially when it comes to commerce.
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Old 04-12-20, 08:16 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Josh-da-man View Post
I suspect that he is doing everything he mentally can to mitigate the impact of the virus because the solution to controlling its spread and impact -- flattening the curve, as the kids say -- comes down to collective action.

It's also likely the same reason he's fixated on a bat escaping a lab and not the unregulated wet markets in China. Regulation is always bad, and people following whatever whim, desire, or bug up their ass is always good, especially when it comes to commerce.

It was the Washington Post which said that:

1) A lab that did experiments on bats and coronavirus was less than 300 yards from the food market that was originally blamed for the outbreak.

2) The first human exposure to COVID-19 may have come from that lab.

3) The food market did not sell bats.

4) A video shows workers from the Chinese lab working with the bats, without proper safety equipment to protect the humans from being exposed to whatever infectious agents the bats might have been carrying.

5) An article describes bat urine falling on a worker who was not wearing the proper protective gear.

6) The part of the lab where the research on the bats was being done was only biosafety level 2, which means that the workers could have been exposed. (I know that level 2 is used for the flu, level 3 for HIV, and level 4 for Ebola.)

I posted that Washington Post piece in this post: https://forum.dvdtalk.com/other-talk...l#post13718171

If you want to criticize me for trusting the Washington Post, then please go ahead and do so.

Do you trust the Washington Post?

Here is the Washington Post piece again:


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...a6d_story.html

How did covid-19 begin? Its initial origin story is shaky.

April 2, 2020

The story of how the novel coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, China, has produced a nasty propaganda battle between the United States and China. The two sides have traded some of the sharpest charges made between two nations since the Soviet Union in 1985 falsely accused the CIA of manufacturing AIDS.

U.S. intelligence officials don’t think the pandemic was caused by deliberate wrongdoing. The outbreak that has now swept the world instead began with a simpler story, albeit one with tragic consequences: The prime suspect is “natural” transmission from bats to humans, perhaps through unsanitary markets. But scientists don’t rule out that an accident at a research laboratory in Wuhan might have spread a deadly bat virus that had been collected for scientific study.

To be clear: U.S. intelligence officials think there’s no evidence whatsoever that the coronavirus was created in a laboratory as a potential bioweapon. Solid scientific research demonstrates that the virus wasn’t engineered by humans and that it originated in bats.

But how did the outbreak occur? Solving this medical mystery is important to prevent future pandemics. What’s increasingly clear is that the initial “origin story” — that the virus was spread by people who ate contaminated animals at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan — is shaky.

Scientists have identified the culprit as a bat coronavirus, through genetic sequencing; bats weren’t sold at the seafood market, although that market or others could have sold animals that had contact with bats. The Lancet noted in a January study that the first covid-19 case in Wuhan had no connection to the seafood market.

There’s a competing theory — of an accidental lab release of bat coronavirus — that scientists have been puzzling about for weeks. Less than 300 yards from the seafood market is the Wuhan branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Researchers from that facility and the nearby Wuhan Institute of Virology have posted articles about collecting bat coronaviruses from around China, for study to prevent future illness. Did one of those samples leak, or was hazardous waste deposited in a place where it could spread?

Richard Ebright, a Rutgers microbiologist and biosafety expert, told me in an email that “the first human infection could have occurred as a natural accident,” with the virus passing from bat to human, possibly through another animal. But Ebright cautioned that it “also could have occurred as a laboratory accident, with, for example, an accidental infection of a laboratory worker.” He noted that bat coronaviruses were studied in Wuhan at Biosafety Level 2, “which provides only minimal protection,” compared with the top BSL-4.

Ebright described a December video from the Wuhan CDC that shows staffers “collecting bat coronaviruses with inadequate [personal protective equipment] and unsafe operational practices.” Separately, I reviewed two Chinese articles, from 2017 and 2019, describing the heroics of Wuhan CDC researcher Tian Junhua, who while capturing bats in a cave “forgot to take protective measures” so that “bat urine dripped from the top of his head like raindrops.”

And then there’s the Chinese study that was curiously withdrawn. In February, a site called ResearchGate published a brief article by Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao from Guangzhou’s South China University of Technology. “In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. Safety level may need to be reinforced in high risk biohazardous laboratories,” the article concluded. Botao Xiao told the Wall Street Journal in February that he had withdrawn the paper because it “was not supported by direct proofs.”

Accidents happen, human or laboratory. Solving the mystery of how covid-19 began isn’t a blame game, but a chance for China and the United States to cooperate in a crisis, and prevent a future one.

Last edited by grundle; 04-12-20 at 08:29 PM.
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Old 04-12-20, 08:25 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by grundle View Post
Most of all, I agree with you for posting facts to prove that I was wrong, and for not resorting to personal attacks like some other people.
I should not have personally attacked you. But I tried the "posting facts to prove how wrong you are" multiple times and you conveniently ignored it, so I'll stick with the memes from now on.
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Old 04-12-20, 08:31 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by grundle View Post
I agree with you that the fatality rate in Iceland could get higher if more people die.

I also agree with you about how part of the goal is to not overload the hospital system.

Most of all, I agree with you for posting facts to prove that I was wrong, and for not resorting to personal attacks like some other people.

Thanks for teaching me.
classic grundle
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Old 04-12-20, 08:57 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by kefrank View Post
I should not have personally attacked you. But I tried the "posting facts to prove how wrong you are" multiple times and you conveniently ignored it, so I'll stick with the memes from now on.

I agree with you that we need to take steps to not overload the health care system.

But is this going too far?


https://www.masslive.com/boston/2020...workforce.html

Coronavirus financial losses prompt Boston Medical Center to furlough 700 employees, 10% of hospital’s workforce

https://www.kentucky.com/news/corona...241565211.html

Kentucky hospital chain furloughs about 500 employees as coronavirus saps business

https://www.sungazette.com/news/top-...lth-care-jobs/

A mounting casualty crisis: Health care jobs

WV MetroNews Four West Virginia hospitals lay off hundreds because of coronavirus-related shrinking revenues - WV MetroNews

Four West Virginia hospitals lay off hundreds because of coronavirus-related shrinking revenues

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ff/5102320002/

Thousands of US medical workers furloughed, laid off as routine patient visits drop during coronavirus pandemic

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/09...-our-hospital/

I Can’t Get My Hip Surgery Because Of Coronavirus Even Though Nobody Is In Our Hospital

https://www.beckershospitalreview.co...al-strain.html

MUSC Health lays off 900 due to COVID-19 financial strain

https://napavalleyregister.com/lifes...eb80d0bbe.html

Oklahoma City hospital closed amid coronavirus spread
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Old 04-12-20, 09:19 PM
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

As a regular blood donor, I was hoping that it would include testing for COVID-19.

It doesn't.

It turns out that it's not transmitted through blood. That really surprised me.

A lot of blood drives have been cancelled, due to work and school being canceled. This is a good time to donate blood. I will donate again, as soon as my eight weeks from my last donation is up, and there's a drive in my area.


https://www.consumerreports.org/heal...irus-pandemic/


The Safe Way to Donate Blood During the Coronavirus Pandemic
With blood supplies critically low, giving now can help, especially if you've already recovered from COVID-19

April 7, 2020

Wanting to do something to help out my community during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, I decided it was time to roll up my sleeve—literally!—and look into donating blood near my home in Los Angeles.

The need now is clear: The nation’s blood stores are at critical levels, according to the Food and Drug Administration. But that’s not because there has been a surge in the need for blood: Treating COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, typically doesn’t require blood transfusions.

Instead, it’s because blood donations have dropped sharply during the coronavirus pandemic. As of April 5, roughly 14,000 blood drives across the country had been canceled, resulting in at least 425,000 fewer blood donations, says Greta Gustafson, spokesperson for the American Red Cross, the nation’s leading nonprofit disaster-relief organization that provides about 40 percent of the nation’s blood supply.

That many cancellations is “unprecedented,” says Jay Bhatt, M.D., at the Feinberg School of Medicine at Northwestern University in Chicago and the former chief medical officer for the American Hospital Association.

Part of that decline is because many places that typically hosted blood donations are now shut down. “Workplaces, college campuses, and schools are canceling their blood drives, as these locations temporarily close and more people are being told to work remotely and practice social distancing,” Gustafson says.

That has made it harder for people who want to donate to find a place nearby. And even if they can find a place, they may be worried about giving blood now.

To be sure, I had a lot of questions. Am I putting myself or others at risk by donating? Are there special precautions to take now? Who should avoid donating, and who should really consider it now?

Here’s what I learned, both as I was looking into concerns and during my first blood donation in more than 10 years.
Will You Be Tested for Coronavirus Before You Donate?

No, says Gustafson at the American Red Cross. That’s because the virus is not transmitted through blood, so there is no need to screen blood for it.

“There are no data or evidence that coronavirus can be transmissible by blood transfusion, and there have been no reported cases worldwide of transmissions through blood for any respiratory virus, including coronavirus,” says Bhatt at Northwestern.

(That’s also one reason you don’t have to worry about getting the coronavirus through a contaminated needle, Bhatt says. Another reason: the Red Cross and other donation sites observe strict sanitary procedures, discarding needles after each use and sterilizing your skin before drawing blood.)

Of course, if you have symptoms of COVID-19, you should avoid donating, both because it’s not healthy for you to give blood when you’re ill or weak and because you don’t want to expose others, especially healthcare workers, at the blood drive.

That’s why a healthcare worker will take your temperature before you donate. I had mine measured twice, in fact: once before I was allowed to enter the donation center and again before I had my blood drawn. My temperature was 98.7, but if I’d had a fever, I would have been asked to reschedule. (Read more about fever and the coronavirus.)

The screener will also ask if you have other symptoms of COVID-19, including a dry cough, difficulty breathing, and body or head pain; if you have symptoms of the flu or another respiratory infection, such as a runny nose or phlegm when you cough; or if you are taking antibiotics to treat a bacterial infection.

You should also avoid donating if you know you’ve been exposed to someone with COVID-19, because people can be contagious before they show symptoms.
Can You Donate if You Had COVID-19 and Are Now Recovered?

Yes! In fact, your blood is in extra high demand right now. That’s because after you’ve been exposed to an infection your body develops antibodies, or proteins in your blood that can help protect from getting the disease a second time. And sharing that blood—called convalescent plasma—with others, especially healthcare workers on the front lines, might provide protection to people who receive it.

Researchers aren’t certain whether this occurs with the new coronavirus, but last week the FDA announced it was partnering with the Mayo Clinic to investigate that possibility. “Convalescent plasma is being evaluated as treatment for patients seriously ill with COVID-19,” says Bhatt at Northwestern.

Note that not every blood donation site is accepting convalescent plasma, so check first with the American Red Cross or the American Association of Blood Banks. You can also see if a hospital near you is accepting convalescent plasma as part of the National COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma Project.

Are There Any Restrictions on Whether You Will Be Able to Donate?

Yes, though in response to the shortage, the FDA last weekend loosened some restrictions, making it easier for gay men as well as people with recent tattoos to donate.

But some restrictions remain in place. For example, the FDA bans donations from people who have traveled within the past 28 days to countries with high COVID-19 infection rates, such as China, Iran, Italy, and South Korea. (This could be in part because of the likelihood you might pass the disease to a healthcare worker or another donor.) There are also limitations if you recently traveled to places with high rates of malaria—which is transmitted through contaminated blood—including Angola, Bangladesh, Burundi, Madagascar, and Mozambique.

You also won’t be able to donate if you take certain medications, including drugs that affect bleeding, such as warfarin (Coumadin), Plavix, and Effien; have low iron levels; weigh less than 110 pounds; or are under the age of 17 (in some states you can donate at age 16 with parental consent).

Finally, don’t donate if public health experts say that you need to stay at home because you’re at high risk because you’re older or have underlying health conditions.
What Can You Do to Protect Yourself and Others While Donating?

Gustafson, from the Red Cross, emphasizes that staff at all blood donation sites are taking extra safety precautions. That means, in addition to wearing gloves and changing them between donors, staff have been instructed to frequently disinfect all surfaces, such as the tables donor lie or sit on, as well as equipment and all high-touch areas.

You should be just as careful, practicing scrupulous hygiene before, during, and after your visit. Specifically, that means:

Practice social distancing. At the Red Cross site I went to, chairs in the waiting room were placed 6 feet apart, and Gustaffson says that is the policy nationwide. But after donating, and feeling a little woozy, it was harder for me to do that while in the canteen where you get snacks and water. Try to be mindful of how close you sit to others, and move away so that your chair is at least 6 feet from others.

Wear a face covering. Of course, the person who draws your blood will need to get very close while drawing your blood. That’s one reason Red Cross staff are required to wear face masks, Gustafson says, as everyone at my donation site did.

But you should wear one, too. In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now recommends that everyone wear a mask when in public. If you unknowingly have the virus, that reduces the risk of you spreading it, especially if you cough or sneeze. The donation site I went to did not provide masks for donors, so take your own.

Limit what you touch. I tried to touch as few surfaces as possible during my visit. So did Tracy Preda, of Downey, Calif. She donated at the same time I did yesterday—her first time, prompted by a friend’s father whom she recently learned is dependent on donated blood to survive. Preda’s advice: “Just don’t touch your face.”

Use hand sanitizer. When I visited, there was hand sanitizer at every turn. And I used it, often: before I touched the computer keyboard to fill out a brief questionnaire, after I stood up from my chair, before my snack, after my snack, and even on the way out the front door.

Take wipes. I forgot mine. But luckily another donor—Miguel Aleman, of Lindwood, Calif., who says he is a regular at giving blood—brought some and shared with me. I used one to wipe the door handle as we left the building together—6 feet apart.

Plan ahead. One of the best steps you can take is to schedule your visit in advance. To find a location and time slot, check with the American Association of Blood Banks or the American Red Cross website (800-RED-CROSS).

On the Red Cross website, you can register and sign up for a RapidPass, basically a ticket that you download to your phone or print out. Doing that before you get to the facility reduces how much time you spend when signing in. It also allows you to avoid having to complete forms, and touch pens or computer keyboards, when you arrive.

One tip I learned the hard way. Your pass is good for only 24 hours, so don’t get it days before you arrive.



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Old 04-13-20, 10:24 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by cultshock View Post
Why do we bother having a separate thread for grundle if he's just going to spout nonsense in this one as well? The Daily Mail? Holy fuck, why not just pull statistics from a NY Post article.



Yep. And unfortunately, it's the dumbest people who know jack shit about their "rights". "I'm not gonna stay cooped up in my home, this is America, I know my rights" blah blah blah. You're wrong, shut the fuck up, and try doing something for the common good for once. Stupid, selfish assholes.
The most important lesson America needs to learn is just because you can do something doesn't mean you should do it.
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Old 04-14-20, 12:18 AM
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

I think most people here consider The Economist to be a fairly reliable source.

They looked at these numbers, and speculated that it's possible (but not certain) that the real fatality rate might be 0.1%.

I don't know if that's accurate or not. And even they readily admit that they might be wrong.

Still, I do hope that it turns out to be true.



https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...e-is-good-news

Why a study showing that covid-19 is everywhere is good news

If millions of people were infected weeks ago without dying, the virus must be less deadly than official data suggest


April 11, 2020

ONE OF THE few things known for sure about covid-19 is that it has spread faster than official data imply. Most countries have tested sparingly, focusing on the sick. Just 0.1% of Americans and 0.2% of Italians have been tested and come up positive. In contrast, a study of the entire population of the Italian town of Vň found a rate of 3%.

The lack of testing has set off a hunt for proxies for covid-19 infection, from smart-thermometer readings to Google searches for “I can’t smell”. A new paper by Justin Silverman and Alex Washburne uses data on influenza-like illness (ILI) to show that SARS-CoV-2 is now widespread in America.

Every week, 2,600 American clinicians report the share of their patients who have ILI—a fever of at least 37.8°C (100°F) and a cough or sore throat, without a known non-flu reason. Unsurprisingly, ILI is often caused by flu. But many other ailments also produce ILI, such as common colds, strep throat and, now, covid-19. The authors assume that the share of these providers’ patients with ILI who do have the flu matches the rate of flu tests that are positive in the same state and week. This lets them estimate how many people have ILI seriously enough to call a doctor, but do not have the flu—and how many more people have had non-flu ILI in 2020 than in prior years.

They find that non-flu ILI has surged. Its rise has the same geographic pattern as covid-19 cases: modest in states with few positive tests, like Kentucky, and steep in ones with big outbreaks, such as New Jersey. In total, estimated non-flu ILI from March 8th to 28th exceeded a historical baseline by 23m cases—200 times the number of positive covid-19 tests in that period. This may overstate the spread of covid-19, since non-flu ILI has other causes. It could also be too low, because people with asymptomatic or mild covid-19 would not report non-flu ILI.

This sounds alarming, but should be reassuring. Covid-19 takes 20-25 days to kill victims. The paper reckons that 7m Americans were infected from March 8th to 14th, and official data show 7,000 deaths three weeks later. The resulting fatality rate is 0.1%, similar to that of flu. That is amazingly low, just a tenth of some other estimates. Perhaps it is just wrong, possibly because the death toll has been under-reported. Perhaps, though, New York’s hospitals are overflowing because the virus is so contagious that it has crammed the equivalent of a year’s worth of flu cases into one week.
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Old 04-14-20, 03:28 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Jason View Post
The most important lesson America needs to learn is just because you can do something doesn't mean you should do it.
Put it in bright, neon lights across all "smart" phones in America like the TRUTH that it is!

That's the axiom to end all axioms.

We've never learned this, but much of the rest of the world has... and we suffer for it, how America suffers for it.
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

Originally Posted by grundle View Post
It was the Washington Post which said that:

1) A lab that did experiments on bats and coronavirus was less than 300 yards from the food market that was originally blamed for the outbreak.

2) The first human exposure to COVID-19 may have come from that lab.

3) The food market did not sell bats.

4) A video shows workers from the Chinese lab working with the bats, without proper safety equipment to protect the humans from being exposed to whatever infectious agents the bats might have been carrying.

5) An article describes bat urine falling on a worker who was not wearing the proper protective gear.

6) The part of the lab where the research on the bats was being done was only biosafety level 2, which means that the workers could have been exposed. (I know that level 2 is used for the flu, level 3 for HIV, and level 4 for Ebola.)

I posted that Washington Post piece in this post: https://forum.dvdtalk.com/other-talk...l#post13718171

Here is the Washington Post piece again:

Spoiler:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...a6d_story.html

How did covid-19 begin? Its initial origin story is shaky.

April 2, 2020

The story of how the novel coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, China, has produced a nasty propaganda battle between the United States and China. The two sides have traded some of the sharpest charges made between two nations since the Soviet Union in 1985 falsely accused the CIA of manufacturing AIDS.

U.S. intelligence officials don’t think the pandemic was caused by deliberate wrongdoing. The outbreak that has now swept the world instead began with a simpler story, albeit one with tragic consequences: The prime suspect is “natural” transmission from bats to humans, perhaps through unsanitary markets. But scientists don’t rule out that an accident at a research laboratory in Wuhan might have spread a deadly bat virus that had been collected for scientific study.

To be clear: U.S. intelligence officials think there’s no evidence whatsoever that the coronavirus was created in a laboratory as a potential bioweapon. Solid scientific research demonstrates that the virus wasn’t engineered by humans and that it originated in bats.

But how did the outbreak occur? Solving this medical mystery is important to prevent future pandemics. What’s increasingly clear is that the initial “origin story” — that the virus was spread by people who ate contaminated animals at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan — is shaky.

Scientists have identified the culprit as a bat coronavirus, through genetic sequencing; bats weren’t sold at the seafood market, although that market or others could have sold animals that had contact with bats. The Lancet noted in a January study that the first covid-19 case in Wuhan had no connection to the seafood market.

There’s a competing theory — of an accidental lab release of bat coronavirus — that scientists have been puzzling about for weeks. Less than 300 yards from the seafood market is the Wuhan branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Researchers from that facility and the nearby Wuhan Institute of Virology have posted articles about collecting bat coronaviruses from around China, for study to prevent future illness. Did one of those samples leak, or was hazardous waste deposited in a place where it could spread?

Richard Ebright, a Rutgers microbiologist and biosafety expert, told me in an email that “the first human infection could have occurred as a natural accident,” with the virus passing from bat to human, possibly through another animal. But Ebright cautioned that it “also could have occurred as a laboratory accident, with, for example, an accidental infection of a laboratory worker.” He noted that bat coronaviruses were studied in Wuhan at Biosafety Level 2, “which provides only minimal protection,” compared with the top BSL-4.

Ebright described a December video from the Wuhan CDC that shows staffers “collecting bat coronaviruses with inadequate [personal protective equipment] and unsafe operational practices.” Separately, I reviewed two Chinese articles, from 2017 and 2019, describing the heroics of Wuhan CDC researcher Tian Junhua, who while capturing bats in a cave “forgot to take protective measures” so that “bat urine dripped from the top of his head like raindrops.”

And then there’s the Chinese study that was curiously withdrawn. In February, a site called ResearchGate published a brief article by Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao from Guangzhou’s South China University of Technology. “In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. Safety level may need to be reinforced in high risk biohazardous laboratories,” the article concluded. Botao Xiao told the Wall Street Journal in February that he had withdrawn the paper because it “was not supported by direct proofs.”

Accidents happen, human or laboratory. Solving the mystery of how covid-19 began isn’t a blame game, but a chance for China and the United States to cooperate in a crisis, and prevent a future one.

And here's another piece from the Washington Post, which also says that a Chinese research lab was doing research on coronavirus and bats, that the lab was near the food market, and that the food market did not sell bats:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...coronaviruses/

State Department cables warned of safety issues at Wuhan lab studying bat coronaviruses

April 14, 2020Two years before the novel coronavirus pandemic upended the world, U.S. Embassy officials visited a Chinese research facility in the city of Wuhan several times and sent two official warnings back to Washington about inadequate safety at the lab, which was conducting risky studies on coronaviruses from bats. The cables have fueled discussions inside the U.S. government about whether this or another Wuhan lab was the source of the virus — even though conclusive proof has yet to emerge.

In January 2018, the U.S. Embassy in Beijing took the unusual step of repeatedly sending U.S. science diplomats to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), which had in 2015 become China’s first laboratory to achieve the highest level of international bioresearch safety (known as BSL-4). WIV issued a news release in English about the last of these visits, which occurred on March 27, 2018. The U.S. delegation was led by Jamison Fouss, the consul general in Wuhan, and Rick Switzer, the embassy’s counselor of environment, science, technology and health. Last week, WIV erased that statement from its website, though it remains archived on the Internet.

What the U.S. officials learned during their visits concerned them so much that they dispatched two diplomatic cables categorized as Sensitive But Unclassified back to Washington. The cables warned about safety and management weaknesses at the WIV lab and proposed more attention and help. The first cable, which I obtained, also warns that the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic.

“During interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, they noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory,” states the Jan. 19, 2018, cable, which was drafted by two officials from the embassy’s environment, science and health sections who met with the WIV scientists. (The State Department declined to comment on this and other details of the story.)

The Chinese researchers at WIV were receiving assistance from the Galveston National Laboratory at the University of Texas Medical Branch and other U.S. organizations, but the Chinese requested additional help. The cables argued that the United States should give the Wuhan lab further support, mainly because its research on bat coronaviruses was important but also dangerous.

As the cable noted, the U.S. visitors met with Shi Zhengli, the head of the research project, who had been publishing studies related to bat coronaviruses for many years. In November 2017, just before the U.S. officials’ visit,Shi’s team had published research showing that horseshoe bats they had collected from a cave in Yunnan province were very likely from the same bat population that spawned the SARS coronavirus in 2003.



“Most importantly,” the cable states, “the researchers also showed that various SARS-like coronaviruses can interact with ACE2, the human receptor identified for SARS-coronavirus. This finding strongly suggests that SARS-like coronaviruses from bats can be transmitted to humans to cause SARS-like diseases. From a public health perspective, this makes the continued surveillance of SARS-like coronaviruses in bats and study of the animal-human interface critical to future emerging coronavirus outbreak prediction and prevention.”

The research was designed to prevent the next SARS-like pandemic by anticipating how it might emerge. But even in 2015, other scientists questioned whether Shi’s team was taking unnecessary risks. In October 2014, the U.S. government had imposed a moratorium on funding of any research that makes a virus more deadly or contagious, known as “gain-of-function” experiments.

As many have pointed out, there is no evidence that the virus now plaguing the world was engineered; scientists largely agree it came from animals. But that is not the same as saying it didn’t come from the lab, which spent years testing bat coronaviruses in animals, said Xiao Qiang, a research scientist at the School of Information at the University of California at Berkeley.

“The cable tells us that there have long been concerns about the possibility of the threat to public health that came from this lab’s research, if it was not being adequately conducted and protected,” he said.

There are similar concerns about the nearby Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention lab, which operates at biosecurity level 2, a level significantly less secure than the level-4 standard claimed by the Wuhan Insititute of Virology lab, Xiao said. That’s important because the Chinese government still refuses to answer basic questions about the origin of the novel coronavirus while suppressing any attempts to examine whether either lab was involved.

Sources familiar with the cables said they were meant to sound an alarm about the grave safety concerns at the WIV lab, especially regarding its work with bat coronaviruses. The embassy officials were calling for more U.S. attention to this lab and more support for it, to help it fix its problems.

“The cable was a warning shot,” one U.S. official said. “They were begging people to pay attention to what was going on.”

No extra assistance to the labs was provided by the U.S. government in response to these cables. The cables began to circulate again inside the administration over the past two months as officials debated whether the lab could be the origin of the pandemic and what the implications would be for the U.S. pandemic response and relations with China.

Inside the Trump administration, many national security officials have long suspected either the WIV or the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention lab was the source of the novel coronavirus outbreak. According to the New York Times, the intelligence community has provided no evidence to confirm this. But one senior administration official told me that the cables provide one more piece of evidence to support the possibility that the pandemic is the result of a lab accident in Wuhan.

“The idea that it was just a totally natural occurrence is circumstantial. The evidence it leaked from the lab is circumstantial. Right now, the ledger on the side of it leaking from the lab is packed with bullet points and there’s almost nothing on the other side,” the official said.

As my colleague David Ignatius noted, the Chinese government’s original story — that the virus emerged from a seafood market in Wuhan — is shaky. Research by Chinese experts published in the Lancet in January showed the first known patient, identified on Dec. 1, had no connection to the market, nor did more than one-third of the cases in the first large cluster. Also, the market didn’t sell bats.

Shi and other WIV researchers have categorically denied this lab was the origin for the novel coronavirus. On Feb. 3, her team was the first to publicly report the virus known as 2019-nCoV was a bat-derived coronavirus.
The Chinese government, meanwhile, has put a total lockdown on information related to the virus origins. Beijing has yet to provide U.S. experts with samples of the novel coronavirus collected from the earliest cases. The Shanghai lab that published the novel coronavirus genome on Jan. 11 was quickly shut down by authorities for “rectification.” Several of the doctors and journalists who reported on the spread early on have disappeared.On Feb. 14, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for a new biosecurity law to be accelerated. On Wednesday, CNN reported the Chinese government has placed severe restrictions requiring approval before any research institution publishes anything on the origin of the novel coronavirus.

The origin story is not just about blame. It’s crucial to understanding how the novel coronavirus pandemic started because that informs how to prevent the next one. The Chinese government must be transparent and answer the questions about the Wuhan labs because they are vital to our scientific understanding of the virus, said Xiao.

We don’t know whether the novel coronavirus originated in the Wuhan lab, but the cable pointed to the danger there and increases the impetus to find out, he said.

“I don’t think it’s a conspiracy theory. I think it’s a legitimate question that needs to be investigated and answered,” he said. “To understand exactly how this originated is critical knowledge for preventing this from happening in the future.”
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Old 04-15-20, 06:03 PM
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

From the meme thread:

https://forum.dvdtalk.com/other-talk...l#post13724382


That's an excellent meme, and I definitely see my own views being represented by the blue text.

That being said, this is what the actual medical professionals are saying. It's not about reducing the number of cases. Instead, it's about spreading the cases out over time, so they don't all happen at the same time and overwhelm the hospital system:

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/article/flat...ronavirus.html

Image spoilerized for size:
Spoiler:










Also, your meme reminds of the parent who says to their young child, "If you eat your broccoli at dinner tonight, then after you go to bed, the monster that lives under your bed won't kill you."

So the child eats her broccoli, and sure enough, when she wakes up the next morning, she is still alive. So her parent was correct.

Of course what we don't have here is a control, i.e., a second child who did not eat her broccoli.

For COVID-19, we would need a control of a country that didn't have any shutdowns. There is no country that fully meets this criteria. Perhaps Sweden is the closest.

Different countries have had different levels, degrees, and start times for their shutdowns. I would be curious to read about the different results that did or didn't end up happening in these different countries.

I would argue that grocery store employees in the U.S. are (sort of, but not entirely) a group that didn't really shut down. So I'd be curious to see their rate of infection, compared to that of the general population that did shut down.

My own personal opinion is that both of the following things are probably true:

1) The precautionary measures have indeed given us some reduction in infection and deaths

and

2) The original predictions for the number of dead (if no precautionary measures were taken) were overinflated.

Last edited by grundle; 04-15-20 at 06:11 PM.
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Old 04-15-20, 06:24 PM
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

For good or bad, whatever happens here should be a lesson to the rest of the world:


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52291326

Coronavirus: Denmark lets young children return to school

April 15, 2020

Children up to the age of 11 are returning to nurseries and schools across Denmark, as the government becomes the first in Europe to relax coronavirus restrictions on education.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen welcomed children as they went back to school in the capital Copenhagen.

Denmark was among the first countries in Europe to impose a lockdown, with schools closed on 12 March.

Infection rates have been low but critics warn the strategy is risky.

"We're all a bit nervous and we'll have to ensure that we stick to hygiene rules," Elisa Rimpler of the BUPL, the Danish Union of Early Childhood and Youth Educators, told the BBC.

"We have a lot of washing hands during the day. We don't have masks and we have to keep a good distance from each other so that's a very difficult task."

Denmark's move came as European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen set out a roadmap on Wednesday for a gradual lifting of restrictions across the 27-state bloc, but made clear it was not a signal to act immediately.

She set out key conditions involving a significant decrease in the spread of Covid-19, capacity in the health system, surveillance and monitoring. A donors' conference will take place online for governments and organisations to pledge money in search of a vaccine, Mrs von der Leyen added.

Other countries besides Denmark have moved to relax lockdown measures this week:

Austria reopened thousands of smaller shops on Tuesday and has said it will allow outdoor sport such as tennis, golf and athletics from 1 May

The Czech government has set out a five-stage timetable

Spain has allowed non-essential workers to go back to work after a two-week pause

Italian bookshops and clothing stores for youngsters have reopened their doors in some regions

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will discuss easing restrictions with the country's 16 state premiers on Wednesday, with reports that they are expected to agree to a limited reopening of shops from next Monday and a relaxation of rules on movement from 3 May.

Spain reported another 523 deaths on Wednesday and a 3% increase in infections but officials said the rise in new cases may have been due to a delay in reporting because of the Easter break.

In Russia, veterans' groups have appealed to President Vladimir Putin to cancel the 9 May military victory parade marking the 75th anniversary of the end of World War Two. Kremlin officials have indicated the event could be held at a later date.

What has Denmark done?

Denmark has so far reported 299 deaths and 6,681 positive cases, although many more are thought to be infected.

It has been widely praised for its swift action in restricting movement before Covid-19 infections were able to spread across the population - leading it to be compared to South Korea.

The head of the SSI infectious diseases institute said Denmark had managed to reduce the number of other people that one positive case infects from 2.6 people before the 12 March lockdown, to 0.6.

Tyra Grove Krause told Danish TV that the success had proved how social distancing, hygiene and other measures such as working from home could work.

The prime minister has said so much progress has been made that she is discussing with political partners how to push forward with a further easing of the restrictions.

On a visit to a school in the Valby area of the capital, Ms Frederiksen said she understood that some parents still preferred to keep their children at home.

Some political figures have expressed concerns that guidelines setting out who should go back to school are unclear. The schools themselves will decide whether staff in an at-risk category should be at work or remain at home.

One parent told the BBC that schools in her area were not going to open until Monday. She added that there was concern that authorities would try to enforce the return to school on children of families who had people at high risk from the virus living at home.

What is happening in Germany?

Angela Merkel held talks with cabinet ministers on Wednesday before discussing an easing of measures with Germany's 16 states.

According to reports in German media, shops of up to 800 sq m (8,600 sq ft) will be allowed to reopen from 20 April subject to strict conditions on the number of customers allowed in at a time. Car dealers and bookshops would be allowed to open regardless of size, as well as zoos, libraries and botanical gardens.

Other larger stores would then be allowed to reopen from 4 May along with hairdressers but religious services would still be barred, and bars and restaurants would remain closed.

Curbs on people's movement are likely to remain in place up until 3 May and steps will be taken to restart education, with the focus on classes preparing for exams.

North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous state, is already planning to reopen primary schools from the start of next week. Bavaria's state premier, Markus Söder, believes that is too soon.

Germany's RKI public health institute has said the number of deaths from coronavirus has risen by another 285 in the past 24 hours to 3,254, which is relatively low for a population of 83 million. It now has 127,584 positive cases.

The economy ministry said Germany fell into recession last month and is unlikely to come out of it before mid-2020.
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Old 04-16-20, 02:09 AM
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

CNN interviewed Josh Rogin, the writer who wrote the April 14 Washington Post article that I posted. He said the bats that carry COVID-19 live more than 1,000 miles away from the food market. This gives me even more reason to think that the virus escaped from a lab.

As far as I can tell, there is zero evidence that the virus came from the food market.

I think there's an error in the transcript. When the transcript says "marketing" (which I have in bold) I think what he really said was "market didn't."

Anyway, CNN is a reliable source, and the writer being interviewed is from the Washington Post, another reliable source.


https://web.archive.org/web/20200416...itroom.01.html

JOSH ROGIN: Well, thanks, Wolf. To be clear, we don't know where the virus originated. But we can't rule out that it came from one of two labs in Wuhan that happened to be near the outbreak and we're doing research for years on that viruses and their potential transmission to humans.

What I revealed today in the "Washington Post" was that State Department science officials in the embassy in Beijing were so concerned about this research that they went to visit the lab several times, and were so alarmed by what they saw as serious safety concerns that they wrote back to Washington twice. To warn them this research posed a risk of a SARS like pandemic, if the lab wasn't operating properly. Their warnings weren't heated. These cables recirculated inside the administration after the outbreak and fueled the debate inside the Trump administration in the government over whether or not the lab is actually the source of the virus originating.

BLITZER: You know, while the reports that the coronavirus may have originated in what are called those wet markets where they sell, you know, live animals, bats and monkeys included.

ROGIN: That's right. That was the original Chinese government story. Over the last two months, that story has seemed not to hold water for several reasons. One is that that turns out that marketing sell bats and, two, the bats that started the coronavirus came from 1,000 miles away. Three, they bleached the whole market, which is like the opposite you would do if you were trying to actually prove that there's evidence there.

So as this story started to fall apart, a lot of people inside the administration started to look at this lab and they started to talk about these cables. And basically what the cables said was, we've got a problem here and this lab is doing very risky research. And they -- according to their own scientists, they don't have the right safety procedures. And they predicted that this could be a source of a pandemic.

And now that we have a pandemic that comes from bat coronaviruses, it's making people take a second look. Now that's not a smoking gun. It doesn't prove that it came there from there. But it's evidence to that side of the ledger.

BLITZER: Yes, that's really significant. You know, Josh, tell our viewers why it's so important to learn where the virus came from. And also, all these suggestions out there widely reported that China has been hindering that effort.

ROGIN: Right. The origin story is crucial, because without knowing exactly how the virus started, we can't really know how to fight it. And we certainly can't know how to predict the next one. And the Chinese government, from the very beginning has pursued a campaign of censorship and suppression. They've jailed doctors, they've jailed scientists.

Just last this week, the CNN reported that they restricted and censored all research about the virus origin. They didn't provide any samples to Americans who wanted it. So they shut down the lab that that revealed the genome. And this is all part of their system, right. There's no bad news in China. They don't allow themselves to be blamed for anything.

So that means that the international community is now going to call for more transparency, more investigation. And unless we have that transparency and investigation, we'll never really get to the bottom of this and it is a matter of life and death.

BLITZER: It certainly as a matter of life and death. Excellent reporting, Josh. Thank you very much. Josh Rogin, working the story for us.

ROGIN: Thank you.
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Old 04-16-20, 03:27 AM
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

From the other thread:

https://forum.dvdtalk.com/other-talk...l#post13723005

Originally Posted by Psi View Post
Nonsense. It came from a lab.
I know you didn't specifically address that to me, and I know you are being sarcastic. But since I am the only one (as far as I know) to take seriously the idea that it might truly have been released by a lab, I'd like to draw your attention to these three posts that I wrote, all of which cite the Washington Post and CNN as my sources. And to be clear, it was not created in a lab. COVID0-19 is natural. But it may have indeed been released by a lab.

https://forum.dvdtalk.com/other-talk...l#post13718171

https://forum.dvdtalk.com/other-talk...l#post13723975

https://forum.dvdtalk.com/other-talk...l#post13724742

To summarize (and all of these things are from the Washington Post and CNN sources that I posted):

1) A Wuhan lab that did experiments on bats and coronavirus was less than 300 yards from the Wuhan food market that was originally blamed for the outbreak.

2) The first human exposure to COVID-19 may have come from that lab.

3) The Wuhan food market did not sell bats.

4) A video shows workers from the Chinese lab working with the bats, without proper safety equipment to protect the humans from being exposed to whatever infectious agents the bats might have been carrying.

5) An article describes bat urine falling on a lab worker who was not wearing the proper protective gear.

6) The part of the lab where the research on the bats was being done was only biosafety level 2, which means that the workers could have been exposed.

7) The wild population of the species of bats that carries COVID-19 virus lives 1,000 miles away from the Wuhan food market.

8) There is no forensic evidence that the location where the first human contracted the virus was the Wuhan food market.

9) Doctors and journalists who tried to talk about these things have disappeared.

And again, all of those things are from CNN and the Washington Post pieces that I posted in those three posts.

Last edited by grundle; 04-16-20 at 03:37 AM.
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Old 04-16-20, 06:12 AM
  #325  
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Re: Untitled grundle COVID-19 thread

Grundle, now being reported at CNN:


(CNN)US intelligence and national security officials say the United States government is looking into the possibility that the novel coronavirus originated in a Chinese laboratory rather than a market


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