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COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

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COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Old 03-20-20, 09:56 PM
  #201  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by RichC2 View Post
Optimistically, it's still really low. Realistically, we'll be well over 500 deaths a day in no time.
Yup.
It's the lily pad thing that I think someone else posted before.
Say you have a pond with a single lily pad.
Every day, the number of lily pads doubles.
It takes 45 days for the pond to be covered in lily pads.
How much of the pond is covered on day 44?
How much of the pond is covered on day 40?

Point being...
It won't seem like a lot, until it's a lot.
And when it's a lot... we're already fucked.

Happy Friday!
Old 03-20-20, 10:17 PM
  #202  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Dan View Post
Yup.
It's the lily pad thing that I think someone else posted before.
Say you have a pond with a single lily pad.
Every day, the number of lily pads doubles.
It takes 45 days for the pond to be covered in lily pads.
How much of the pond is covered on day 44?
How much of the pond is covered on day 40?

Point being...
It won't seem like a lot, until it's a lot.
And when it's a lot... we're already fucked.

Happy Friday!
... And as I said before, the grasp of exponential growth is lost to the average American.
Old 03-20-20, 10:20 PM
  #203  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by zyzzle View Post
China, Korea: Stay Home order: 100% compliance
California: Stay home order: 33% compliance

We're so fucked. People are so stupid.
the Greatest Generation was asked to go overseas and fight and die for our country and our way of life. They answered the call.
Our generation is called to sit on our asses at home and we are failing.
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Old 03-20-20, 11:04 PM
  #204  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by B5Erik View Post
I was actually really surprised by the number of cars on the road today. It's like only 1/3 of the population is taking this thing seriously.

I will only be making limited runs outside the house for the next few weeks (groceries, food, other necessities).
I think (hope) that it's people like B5ERIK going into their office one last time to get their laptop or whatever to work from home. We'll see. At least the rain from Sunday to Wednesday will keep some people home.
Old 03-20-20, 11:04 PM
  #205  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by chowderhead View Post
the Greatest Generation was asked to go overseas and fight and die for our country and our way of life. They answered the call.
Our generation is called to sit on our asses at home and we are failing.
That's what I'll spend most of my time doing. Of course, I'm almost as old as the youngest Baby Boomers. Almost.
Old 03-21-20, 12:15 AM
  #206  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Anyone else have lineups of thoughtless assholes who just had no choice but to get their hands on some new video game the moment it was released?

https://toronto.citynews.ca/video/20...-game-release/
Old 03-21-20, 12:44 AM
  #207  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by kefrank View Post
Dude, the information you're seeking is readily available in the many articles like this one:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-and-different

Some highlights (bolded emphasis mine):

It really should not be hard to understand.
I fear our resident math whiz is too hung up on his 60,000 flu deaths statistic to see past that. I mean, it's common sense that 60,000 IS more than 12,000.
Old 03-21-20, 03:00 AM
  #208  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Mortality statistics are one thing. The mental health hit is harder to quantify and can't help but be far more substantial.

Right now it's a "yeah, that too", but give another four months of overwhelming news, combined with extreme economic anxiety, and add social distancing and self-quarantining- there is going to be an extreme number done on a lot of people's heads. That's not likely to abate even with the eventual arrival of a vaccine.

If you are riding this through with a family and everybody emerges intact, God bless ya. For a lot of other people, this is going to be a harrowing experience.
Old 03-21-20, 03:21 AM
  #209  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Norm de Plume View Post
Anyone else have lineups of thoughtless assholes who just had no choice but to get their hands on some new video game the moment it was released?

https://toronto.citynews.ca/video/20...-game-release/
Do these idiots know you can download the game???
Old 03-21-20, 05:50 AM
  #210  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by mhg83 View Post
Do these idiots know you can download the game???
They couldn't find the iphone app to tell them this.
Old 03-21-20, 06:26 AM
  #211  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Josh-da-man View Post
I fear our resident math whiz is too hung up on his 60,000 flu deaths statistic to see past that. I mean, it's common sense that 60,000 IS more than 12,000.
1-2 months ago some people were bringing up the common flu to argue that our reaction to Covid-19 was overblown, those dire predictions of infection and deaths were pushed by the usual alarmists, and the issue in Wuhan would never happen here. As wrong as that was, there was at least a claim that we should do nothing and let the problem fizzle out on its own.

Fast forward to today. With mountains of evidence of what is happening in Europe and the US, not only in public health but also national economy and pure and simple livelihood of millions of people, and that impact is right now right in front of us -- what exactly is the point of discussing the common flu and H1N1 now in this thread? We are at a point where no one can say anymore to do nothing, so those other flu discussions are distractions that add nothing to this Covid-19 discussion. It's nothing more than thread crap. If creation of a non-political thread was meant to keep discussion on topic, then we should also get rid of the "what about?" nonsense.
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Old 03-21-20, 07:19 AM
  #212  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by tasha99 View Post
I think that we should ALL be wearing masks. It kind of freaked me out when the CDC contradicted what I've been taught annually about PPE. Especially when this was thought to be droplet spread, masks make complete sense, and I felt like I'd either been lied to before, or now. I guess it's unclear if this is droplet or aerial, but even if it is airborne, I think masks on everyone would be better, because too many people can't cover their cough. Plus, who is sick? No one knows since so many people don't show symptoms.
I can see where face masks help. I was initially skeptical after seeing how most common people (not medical personnel) use them in Asian countries. Let's say they do block virus droplets from an infected person from reaching the mask wearer. That's great but now the front of the mask is contaminated. Because masks are hard to get, people reuse them for several days, and when not wearing them they put them in their pockets or purses, thus transferring virus to hands and elsewhere on them, their clothes and belongings. It's like trapping bugs then setting them free all over yourself. I would be OK to throw away a mask after one use, taking care not to touch the front, but that's not how it's usually done.

But a Japanese friend explained that the main purpose is not to protect me from them but them from me. If I was the infected one and was spraying viruses on other people, then a mask on me would reduce that. And if viruses get transferred to my clothes and belongings, that's fine because I was a carrier already. That prevention is especially relevant for Covid-19 in that people can eject viruses unknowingly while asymptomatic. But like many things, they work best when we all do them. If the usage rate is 1% then it probably doesn't help much, but at 99%, then it's probable. First goal should be to prevent Covid-19 infection, but once it takes hold, then widespread mask use could help slow the spread
Old 03-21-20, 08:09 AM
  #213  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Who knows if this will lead to much, but at least it's something...

Old 03-21-20, 08:20 AM
  #214  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Of my three surviving older brothers, here's the landscape:

Oldest is 68 and has a heart condition. He posted on FB this morning ranting about people buying up more than they need in the grocery stores so that he has to go to more than one just to get his basic needs.

Second oldest is 65 and thinks this is "just the flu" and everyone is overreacting. I can't say anything more about him without bringing the P word into it.

Youngest is 57 and just got laid off from his job as a restaurant cook, so he's directly affected by the virus in a way that the rest of us siblings are not.

I have a job that can be done from home, plus a coworker who's out on medical leave and was supposed to come back last week but is now self-isolating because she and her husband are both over 65. I am goddamned grateful to be able to still work, even though the other night an engineer called me for corrections on a document when I was about to step into the shower so I had to do them totally naked (mercifully, my web cam was covered up )

My dad, who lives with second oldest, is almost 94 and he just wants to GET the virus so he can go join our mom, who died in 2004.

So wags the world away.
Old 03-21-20, 08:26 AM
  #215  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Vibiana View Post
My dad, who lives with second oldest, is almost 94 and he just wants to GET the virus so he can go join our mom, who died in 2004.
That's heartbreaking.

I had an uncle die in his sleep yesterday(natural causes, unrelated to Covid). He was 90 and in poor health the last dozen years. Of course there can be no funeral, which sucks as he was the sweetest guy and it would be the kind of funeral where people came from across the land to celebrate him. Sigh.
Old 03-21-20, 08:51 AM
  #216  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by mhg83 View Post
Do these idiots know you can download the game???
"No amount of pandemic would get between me and getting this game"

Look at these geniuses:

https://www.cp24.com/news/you-just-h...ames-1.4861413
ďIím actually like living with my grandparents right now so I have to be a little bit extra careful. I have hand sanitizer in my backpack. Like Iím super careful about stuff,Ē a woman lining up for 'Animal Crossing' told CP24 on Friday.

ďBut I donít know, something about this game, you just have to come and get your hands on it.Ē
https://www.thestar.com/business/202...-pandemic.html

Dennis Johnson said he was excited for ďAnimal Crossing,Ē as well as the launch of ďDoom: Eternal.Ē Getting them in-store rather than downloading them online made it less likely the games would be damaged.

ďThe data could get corrupted in a download. This way, I know Iíve got the game. Iím going to be home for a while,Ē said Johnson.
The only time people in the lineup seemed to get nervous was when a woman wandered down the line, attempting to sneak up on waiting shoppers and give them a hug or tousle their hair. One man looked shell-shocked after the woman twirled away southwards on Yonge St. while giggling.
Old 03-21-20, 09:02 AM
  #217  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
The cruise also was primarily elderly people as well. A data analyst projected that the mortality rate would have been around 0.25% if the age of the people on board had been representative of the average worldwide.

For another example, although the denominator is by no means complete, look at Germany. A mortality rate of 0.35%, simply because they test more than everywhere else. The bottom line, the greater percentage of people who get tested, the lower the death rate. In the U.S., the rate is falling every day because testing is being ramped up, now at around 1.3%.

I think when it's all said and done, the death rate will be a little higher than the flu, with the main difference being that, since it's more infectious, a lot more people will get it. However unlike the flu, many people feel little to no symptoms.
That is wishful thinking. These people are way sicker than flu with much more severe respiratory symptoms. And why on earth would you or other people conclude that while testing for COVID is incomplete and that there are lots of asymptomatic people out there, but just assume that every person with Influenza A & B is tested and documented and symptomatic? Flu is not even a reportable illness. We have literally no idea how many people each year get the Flu because we donít test everyone for it. This is much more severe and acute. Donít kid yourself and donít go spreading misinformation.
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Old 03-21-20, 09:06 AM
  #218  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Decker View Post
That is wishful thinking. These people are way sicker than flu with much more severe respiratory symptoms. And why on earth would you or other people think that testing for COVID is incomplete and that there are lots of asymptomatic people out there, but just assume that every person with Influenza A & B is tested and documented? We have literally no idea how many people each year get the Flu because we donít test everyone for it. This is much more severe and acute. Donít kid yourself and donít go spreading misinformation.
Germany's death rate of 0.35% is misinformation, but the CDC saying it's 3.4% isn't. GMAFB dude.
Old 03-21-20, 09:12 AM
  #219  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Germany's death rate of 0.35% is misinformation, but the CDC saying it's 3.4% isn't. GMAFB dude.
Spainís mortality rate is 4% and Italyís is 8%, both with more cases documented than in Germany. Talk about picking and choosing your data.
Old 03-21-20, 09:18 AM
  #220  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Decker View Post
Thatís fine with me. Never liked the idea of separating the conversation in the first place.
Please move this thread back to Political. It's becoming less pleasant everyday.
Old 03-21-20, 09:32 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Decker View Post
Spain’s mortality rate is 4% and Italy’s is 8%, both with more cases documented than in Germany. Talk about picking and choosing your data.
The difference is the number people being tested. Germany is testing over 160000 a week, far more than anywhere else in the world, just because they can. So it is more representative simply because the denominator is most accurate (but still nowhere complete).

Italy's supposedly #2 healthcare system in the world collapsed and so people are dying because of improper care. (That could happen here in the U.S., and the shelter in place is necessary to keep the cases needing hospitalization at manageable level). Italy also has one of the oldest populations and their culture is about the furthest from social distancing as you can get (not to mention they are skeptical of law and order).

Not really sure why Spain and Iran's rate's are so high, but probably a big factor is because there is a much greater percentage of undiagnosed cases there than the norm worldwide.

Of course, I'm more concerned about the mortality rate here in the U.S., and as I said it is going down daily as testing is being more widespread and available. I think that should be somewhat good news, even as cases go up.
Old 03-21-20, 09:37 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Also agree with earlier comments that N95 masks worn at grocery stores and other indoor places outside the home would be a great help. Hopefully there will be enough available for people but right now there isn't enough even for doctors and nurses. It's sad.
Old 03-21-20, 09:45 AM
  #223  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
The difference is the number people being tested. Germany is testing over 160000 a week, far more than anywhere else in the world, just because they can. So it is more representative simply because the denominator is most accurate (but still nowhere complete).

.
If they are testing way more in Germany AND finding less cases, that means that the disease is much less prevalent and maybe mortality is exponentially affected by prevalence in the population. The more people that have it in a small confined area, maybe the worse the outcome is. Obviously Germany has done a great job of limiting the spread, donít get so hung up in the low death numbers to ignore that part of the equation.
I am not an epidemiologist and donít know for sure. And I do get that there are many undiagnosed cases in the US because we lack anywhere near enough tests. But make no mistake, this isnít the flu, itís much more serious with much more morbidly and mortality. Picking your favorite data and ignoring or excusing away the rest does nobody any good.
Old 03-21-20, 09:53 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Germany's death rate of 0.35% is misinformation, but the CDC saying it's 3.4% isn't. GMAFB dude.
I naively thought having a non-political thread would allow discussions about the actual medical side of this disease and our inadequate response to it, but I guess that was a misguided notion. Decker is having to pay scalper prices for cleaning supplies just to disinfect his medical practice. I am literally having to compound hand sanitizer so that I can give it to my employees and keep my pharmacy running. Tanman and other healthcare professionals are working tirelessly every day and yet here we have trolls arguing over straw man arguments without any insight into what is actually going on and instead playing armchair doctor.
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Old 03-21-20, 10:10 AM
  #225  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Question for bruceames: The State Shelter-in-Place order doesn't seem to exempt construction work, while the earlier San Francisco Area order did. Have you been told which order supersedes?

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