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COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Old 03-20-20, 11:40 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Michael Corvin View Post
Right but if everyone would self quarantine and quit going about their business the numbers wouldn't matter, would they? The virus would peter out.
How do you know when the virus has Petered out? 50% of the people who have it aren't being tested. We could say, "Ok folks, the death curve is going down, we don't have any other info, just come out of your houses now." and those 50% of people who have it, don't know it, just give it to vulnerable people and the cycle starts again.
Old 03-20-20, 11:40 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Mabuse View Post
Singapore is a tiny little island nation. Comparing it to the US is crazy.
It's also authoritarian. If the Government tells the population to do something, they do it. No wild Millennials ignoring instructions and going out to party on Spring Break. They'd be caned or executed or something.
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Old 03-20-20, 12:20 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

If you want to remain optimistic, only read half of this column.

The Best-Case Outcome for the Coronavirus, and the Worst (Nicholas Kristof, NYT)


Here’s the grimmest version of life a year from now: More than two million Americans have died from the new coronavirus, almost all mourned without funerals. Countless others have died because hospitals are too overwhelmed to deal adequately with heart attacks, asthma and diabetic crises. The economy has cratered into a depression, for fiscal and monetary policy are ineffective when people fear going out, businesses are closed and tens of millions of people are unemployed. A vaccine still seems far off, immunity among those who have recovered proves fleeting and the coronavirus has joined the seasonal flu as a recurring peril.

Yet here’s an alternative scenario for March 2021:Life largely returned to normal by the late summer of 2020, and the economy has rebounded strongly. The United States used a sharp, short shock in the spring of 2020 to break the cycle of transmission; warm weather then reduced new infections and provided a summer respite for the Northern Hemisphere. By the second wave in the fall, mutations had attenuated the coronavirus, many people were immune and drugs were shown effective in treating it and even in reducing infection. Thousands of Americans died, mostly octogenarians and nonagenarians and some with respiratory conditions, but by February 2021, vaccinations were introduced worldwide and the virus was conquered.
Old 03-20-20, 12:21 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

From the maker of the "Glitter Bombs" for porch pirates.

How viruses spread from person

Old 03-20-20, 12:22 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Isn’t Singapore the place that wanted to cane (whip) that American teen years ago and it turned into an international incident but even with what...the President at the time getting involved he still ended up getting caned 4/5 times instead of 8-10 times? Singapore does not eff around but yeah, comparing Singapore to U.S. is not exactly an apples to apples comparison.
Old 03-20-20, 12:33 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Inhumans99 View Post
Isn’t Singapore the place that wanted to cane (whip) that American teen years ago and it turned into an international incident but even with what...the President at the time getting involved he still ended up getting caned 4/5 times instead of 8-10 times? Singapore does not eff around but yeah, comparing Singapore to U.S. is not exactly an apples to apples comparison.
Old 03-20-20, 12:42 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

They also execute drug dealers. They executed 11 people in 2018 for drug-related crimes and 2 people for murder.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capita...t_in_Singapore
Old 03-20-20, 12:49 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Even or friends the South Koreans are using very privacy-invasive tracing techniques that would raise civil liberty alarm bells in the U.S.
Old 03-20-20, 12:52 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Singapore don't fuck around.

Italy hit a new mortality high with 627 deaths there today (4,032 total). They crossed 100 about 16 days ago (just a marker, we crossed 100 on Tuesday, we're at 224 now).

Washington State appears to be flattening the curve a bit right now.

Last edited by RichC2; 03-20-20 at 12:58 PM.
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Old 03-20-20, 01:19 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Franchot View Post
That seems to be a pattern I'm seeing.

https://thehill.com/media/488617-nbc...irus-infection
the danger is that the people who have low to moderate symptoms spread it to those most vulnerable. We need to flatten the curve so the health care system do not get overwhelm with everyone all at once.
Old 03-20-20, 01:24 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Franchot View Post
Yeah, I agree about the lack of testing being the biggest downfall.

I'm curious about the rising number of deaths in Italy. Did they not do enough testing of potential people having the virus? Did they choose not to isolate/treat those confirmed with the virus? Were the tests faulty or were there not enough tests available to use?

I feel if the United States wants to get the upper hand on this virus (if it's not too late already), we have to get enough tests produced and readily available. It feels like we're just playing wack-a-mole with the virus.
I sometimes hear doubt about the value of testing, or the need of do extreme testing like they do in South Korea. The argument is that it only tells us the magnitude of the problem but doesn't solve anything. These are some of the reasons it helped Korea:

- Detect and limit a surprise attack. It's best to prevent by testing all incoming people, but Korea made a mistake I think by not testing an infected person returning from China. Because she didn't come from a known hot spot they assumed she was clean and let in in unchecked. The problem exploded from there. One person alone was the source of so much grief. But through lots of testing they realized the mistake soon and triggered a nationwide crisis response. In our case, we had a breach somehow that was discovered almost accidentally 6 weeks later, and to this day, no one can say conclusively what the path was.

- Once they find an infected person, not only do they isolate and treat that person but they also track down and test all others who might have come in contact with that person (workers in a same building, residents of a same housing complex). In Korea and some countries, the government can also use cell phone GPS data to see those who might have come near an infected person, and they test and isolate the nest layer of people if necessary.

- They use this vast amount of data to adjust their response. No one can predict with absolute certainty what works and what's enough, so the infection data helps them identify and clean up potential new infection clusters.

The whole thing is designed around preventing at the seed level, but if they have an escape, stop when the seed becomes no more than a tiny tree. They don't let the tree grow full size or become a forest before they react. Covid-19 spread is fast and unforgiving so our response has to be fast and "draconian." From Decker's posts today, it seems that we still have far to go.
Old 03-20-20, 01:26 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by chowderhead View Post
the danger is that the people who have low to moderate symptoms spread it to those most vulnerable. We need to flatten the curve so the health care system do not get overwhelm with everyone all at once.
Not to mention, every moron with a cough is going to the ER, and that needs to be filtered before an ER visit. Eventually, you'll be checking in...before you check in.
Old 03-20-20, 01:28 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by funkyryno View Post
If you want to remain optimistic, only read half of this column.

The Best-Case Outcome for the Coronavirus, and the Worst (Nicholas Kristof, NYT)
Kristol is a moron and again, looking for something spike a reader's interest. He should write for Hollywood. He's merely getting people, who are professionals unfortunately, to spread their own virus...FEAR.

By June/July, this is going to be over. Isolation is key. It seems we're getting a good idea of how to vaccinate people with proper treatments and it's only a matter of time before the production is ramped up.

But let's take Kristol's worst case scenario.

Over 600,000 people a year die already from heart disease alone. Another 600,000 die each year from most types of cancer.

Yes, we can manage just fine. The media doesn't hardly mention those two mortalities, which when combined...is 1.2 million deaths per year, which is Kristol's figure of CV19 deaths at the worst case scenario.

Nursing homes will have the highest vacancy ever, and prices to put your father or mother in a home...will also be the cheapest ever seen for quite some time due to that vacancy. America won't even notice the worst case scenario, if it ever happened. However, with the media hyping it the way it is...they'll make it sound like 100 million are dying, with trillions of cases, with possibilities of infecting potential life on Mars if they could get away with it--and they could.

The amount of people who die from non-related CV19 directly, but indirectly due to the bullshit spewed out by the media...is my main concern. The way social media works and how ignorant people are these days, our financials...as we've seen could drop to literally nothing in a month, and could have stores being overwhelmed by rioters and people who just have gotten out of control...all thanks to the greedy anchor with bleached teeth on your television.

EDIT: Article is 2.2 million worst case scenario. I read it as 1.2 million.

Last edited by DVD Polizei; 03-20-20 at 01:49 PM.
Old 03-20-20, 01:30 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Inhumans99 View Post
I know folks wanted to try and keep Politics out of the main COVID thread which is why we now have threads that branched out from the main COVID one but I say screw it...merge all the COVID threads (minus the meme one) into a mega thread so all things COVID are under one roof so to speak.
Agreed. It was hard enough to keep up with the thread before - now it seems I'm reading the same stuff rehashed in two separate threads.
Old 03-20-20, 01:37 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
Kristol is a moron. He should write for Hollywood. He's merely getting people, who are professionals unfortunately, to spread their own virus...FEAR.

By June/July, this is going to be over. Isolation is key. It seems we're getting a good idea of how to vaccinate people with proper treatments and it's only a matter of time before the production is ramped up.
Your prediction is pretty much the best-case scenario that he outlined.
Old 03-20-20, 01:46 PM
  #166  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
Kristol is a moron and again, looking for something spike a reader's interest. He should write for Hollywood. He's merely getting people, who are professionals unfortunately, to spread their own virus...FEAR.

By June/July, this is going to be over. Isolation is key. It seems we're getting a good idea of how to vaccinate people with proper treatments and it's only a matter of time before the production is ramped up.

But let's take Kristol's worst case scenario.

Over 600,000 people a year die already from heart disease alone. Another 600,000 die each year from most types of cancer.

Yes, we can manage just fine. The media doesn't hardly mention those two mortalities, which when combined...is 1.2 million deaths per year, which is Kristol's figure of CV19 deaths at the worst case scenario.

Nursing homes will have the highest vacancy ever, and prices to put your father or mother in a home...will also be the cheapest ever seen for quite some time due to that vacancy. America won't even notice the worst case scenario, if it ever happened. However, with the media hyping it the way it is...they'll make it sound like 100 million are dying, with trillions of cases, with possibilities of infecting potential life on Mars if they could get away with it--and they could.

The amount of people who die from non-related CV19 directly, but indirectly due to the bullshit spewed out by the media...is my main concern. The way social media works and how ignorant people are these days, our financials...as we've seen could drop to literally nothing in a month, and could have stores being overwhelmed by rioters and people who just have gotten out of control...all thanks to the greedy anchor with bleached teeth on your television.
It is analogous to compressing all those 600k deaths into a span of 2-4 months instead of spreading out over 12 months. If you have hospitals overwhelmed with Covid19 patients all at once, then all those other people coming in for heart disease or gun shots or accidents may get subpar care and we would get even more deaths.
It's is all about not overwhelming medical services when doctors and nurses are ALREADY alarmed at the lack of PPE to begin with. We are at the tip of the spear here.
Old 03-20-20, 01:48 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by funkyryno View Post
Your prediction is pretty much the best-case scenario that he outlined.
But it's really not my best-case. It's an average prediction. My best-case is it's done by the end of this month if isolation works. I'm thinking a few more months due to the lack of isolation that the public isn't paying attention to, which is why the CA gov and NY gov are finally implementing. But I really cannot get on board with 2.2 million dead scenario. That's just basically saying the US is one big Italy. It's not. We're completely different, and spread out and this geographic distancing is helping us in the US.

It's kinda like theorizing everyone picks up a gun they own...and starts shooting innocent people. Not. Gonna. Happen.
Old 03-20-20, 02:05 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by chowderhead View Post
It is analogous to compressing all those 600k deaths into a span of 2-4 months instead of spreading out over 12 months. If you have hospitals overwhelmed with Covid19 patients all at once, then all those other people coming in for heart disease or gun shots or accidents may get subpar care and we would get even more deaths.
It's is all about not overwhelming medical services when doctors and nurses are ALREADY alarmed at the lack of PPE to begin with. We are at the tip of the spear here.
The biggest issue is getting respirators where they are needed. A gunshot would, depending on where it is (most are shot in the limbs from people who can't shoot worth a damn), won't need a respirator. They'll just need reality check on the company they keep.

I will agree, there is concern about hospitals getting "too many patients". That's ALWAYS been in the back of the minds of hospital operations for decades. And when overwhelmed to some degree during a flu season or even local tragedy event, there are protocols put in place.

I've been talking to our docs and nurses about an uncontrollable surge in ER, and we already have that trauma in place. It's already there, really, but just doesn't make it in the news because it's boring stuff. They do it everyday by prioritizing life-threatening injuries. That's what hospitals do. Only if you're elderly and literally cannot breath as you're stumbling into an ER, will get you a bed. Gunshot wounds...sorry, you'll be in pain for a while while others are treated, along with everyone else who does NOT have urgent respiratory issues. Now it's just including CV19 in that category of respiration urgency. Of course, blood loss is another priority but CV19 has nothing to do with blood loss and only some gunshots do, knife wounds, etc., but I hope you get my point.

The biggest thing, is turning morons away from ER when they don't need it, and having them call their doc's office for an appt. And around the country, we're getting a lot of it.

Yes, we're gonna hear, I can already foresee it, the media yelling about how people are being turned away for illnesses. Well, it's because those illnesses were not life-threatening but you probably won't see that part of the story covered. "Mr. Smith was turned away from Hospital X! The tragedy of the CV19 is here!" Little were we told Mr. Smith had a fucking hang nail, and thought that warranted an ER visit (true story by the way)..

If everyone just calms down a few thousand degrees, and uses a tad bit of logic, we can get through this in a few months. Listen to the media 24hrs a day and be a dumbass, we'll have problems for a while.
Old 03-20-20, 02:10 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by tanman View Post
I’m finally off work so I probably won’t be on here as much. I really need a break from all this. Also can’t format on the phone very well so can’t quote.

Keep the thread separate. Thanks to slops post about the combo hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin our hospital is getting prepared to use this as a possible treatment. It would have gotten burie
Get some rest tanman. We appreciate you doing what you do in this crisis and for being on the front lines.
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Old 03-20-20, 02:15 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

SCCM guidelines. Very long very technical but if you want a glimpse on how hospitals will likely treat COVID-19 patients this will be the “instruction book”.

https://www.sccm.org/getattachment/D...pdf?lang=en-US
Old 03-20-20, 02:28 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by emanon View Post
Agreed. It was hard enough to keep up with the thread before - now it seems I'm reading the same stuff rehashed in two separate threads.
Maybe all the ‘pfft, who fuckin’ cares if 2.2 million people die’ bullshit can stay here and the political thread can be the one most of us pay attention to?
Old 03-20-20, 03:24 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Illinois is now on a shelter in place order.

Chicago Tribune story
Old 03-20-20, 03:30 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

I worry about my survival if I were to get it and how much it would devastate my family financially in hospital bills. That is if only one of us in my family of four gets it and we have decent health insurance. I look at the family from New Jersey that has already lost four family members to it. Family members of varying ages.
Old 03-20-20, 03:41 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by VinVega View Post
Illinois is now on a shelter in place order.

Chicago Tribune story
Looks like Illinois is trying to stay ahead of the wave like California.

Washington has a large numbers of confirmed cases. Is there a push to be a Shelter in Place state going on there?
Old 03-20-20, 03:42 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by dsa_shea View Post
I worry about my survival if I were to get it and how much it would devastate my family financially in hospital bills. That is if only one of us in my family of four gets it and we have decent health insurance. I look at the family from New Jersey that has already lost four family members to it. Family members of varying ages.
We are gonna get through this. It's hard to remain calm, but just have a plan and work through it.
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