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COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

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COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Old 03-20-20, 06:44 AM
  #126  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

when infection numbers flatline and people stop dying from it?
Old 03-20-20, 06:53 AM
  #127  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Psi View Post
It's difficult for me to discuss this topic without getting political but I'll try. IMO we made many big mistakes along the way:

- Banning travel from China when China did their Wuhan lock-down and thinking it was enough to block the virus out. It helped but wasn't enough. We still had a breach somewhere, six weeks before we realized.

- Insufficient testing, intended mainly for diagnostics (testing one person) instead of surveillance (monitoring a population). So when we had a breach and the virus went far and wide it took us a long time to know.

- Too slow in fixing and increasing Covid-19 testing. There were problems here and in other countries, but they fixed their problem long before we did. There were many reasons, but bottom line was that we had little idea of the true magnitude of out infection spread. Smaller countries like Taiwan, Singapore and Vietnam used the WHO test (I think made in Germany) and so far have evaded an outbreak.

- Despite all of that, a month ago top health professionals were predicting the exact scenario we have today. We had lots of simulation and analyses that said that 3 weeks ago, we were already equal to Wuhan at their infection peak when they were doing those "draconian" things. We didn't jump on it then, so today we are in worse shape than Wuhan and more like Italy which is around 2 times worse in infection and deaths.

There is nothing here that hasn't been discussed in this exact thread in its early days. It's all there if you want to look back.


I completely agree with your assessment. We tested 472 people total as of February 29th. That compared to South Korea testing 10,000 people per day. Not to mention South Korea has a population of 50m, USA 320m.


With regards to the travel ban to China, unfortunately that did not include USC and LPR. I told my wife this when the order came out. This wasn't going to work. The USC and LPR coming back to the USA should at a minimum be tested.

Last edited by D.Pham4GLTE (>60GB); 03-20-20 at 07:22 AM.
Old 03-20-20, 07:31 AM
  #128  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Old 03-20-20, 07:33 AM
  #129  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Michael Corvin View Post
when infection numbers flatline and people stop dying from it?
We don't know the infection numbers because up to 50% of people show no symptoms and there aren't enough tests, so those 50% aren't getting tested. The data we have is crap.
Old 03-20-20, 07:34 AM
  #130  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by TheBigDave View Post
Spoiler:
Publix doesn't have anything on their shelves anymore anyway. I'm looking at other shopping alternatives.
Old 03-20-20, 08:16 AM
  #131  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Publix is fully stocked here, though we are close to their distribution centers.

The only way to really shut this virus down would be to shut everything down for a solid 30 days, which judging from everything -- seems impossible. Available testing would help a lot.
Old 03-20-20, 08:21 AM
  #132  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by VinVega View Post
We don't know the infection numbers because up to 50% of people show no symptoms and there aren't enough tests, so those 50% aren't getting tested. The data we have is crap.
Yep. Which is what pisses me off about people running around like nothing's wrong. Kids spring breaking and spreading the disease, people still out buying cars, etc. WTF???

Personally, I kind of like the, "Shoot on sight," solution to the Spring Breakers...
Old 03-20-20, 08:24 AM
  #133  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

We just started house hunting about 2 weeks ago before everything went nuts. We hit the breaks on all that, but on my apps I still see people are still buying and selling houses. Crazy.
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Old 03-20-20, 08:35 AM
  #134  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by stingermck View Post
We just started house hunting about 2 weeks ago before everything went nuts. We hit the breaks on all that, but on my apps I still see people are still buying and selling houses. Crazy.
Ignorance is bliss, and denial isn't just a river in Egypt.
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Old 03-20-20, 08:39 AM
  #135  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

My two hospitals - 1 positive case at one, three at the other. Several presumptive cases in the ICU at both. I did my first COVID-19 test in my office on the 17th, got result on the 19th. Negative. Did two on the 18th, two yesterday. Waiting to hear back. Nobody terribly sick yet, I am doing on sick kids with fever who test negative in my office for Flu and RSV. I send the test out to the local labs.
Old 03-20-20, 08:42 AM
  #136  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

I haven't been anywhere since night before last when I did a grocery run. If nothing else, the enforced quarantine is breaking me of my fast food habit. My office is 25 miles away so I'm used to grabbing breakfast and usually dinner on the way home (I pack my lunch just about every day or grab a sandwich at our cafeteria).

When I was out Wednesday evening (around 6:30; the store closes at 8 PM now), I noticed the few people who were out on the streets. Most of them were walking dogs. It felt weird. Eerie would be a better word, I guess. Like being dropped in the middle of a Stephen King novel, which I think I've said before so if I repeat myself, please forgive.

My 85 y/o uncle lives in a senior housing complex and they've been on lockdown for more than a week. No visitors, everyone staying in their apartments, meals delivered rather than served in the dining hall, that kind of thing. He says he's very grateful that they are taking such good care of the residents and it's a relief to be there.

My almost 94 y/o dad lives with my second oldest brother, who's retired, in a small town in upper Michigan. He doesn't get out much anyway, but I still worry about him.

Just very grateful that I can work from home. It's lonely not having the interaction of my coworkers, but I must admit it's nice to roll out of bed and walk two feet to the office. I'll be ready to go back when the All Clear sounds, though.
Old 03-20-20, 09:06 AM
  #137  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by VinVega View Post
Publix doesn't have anything on their shelves anymore anyway. I'm looking at other shopping alternatives.
Just got back from Publix. I was there at the 8am opening. People were waiting in line. It was a madhouse. I probably should have gone home and come back later.

They were pretty well stocked, except for a few things. They might not have the exact thing out wanted, but usually there was a reasonable replacement available. Paper Towels and Kleenex were stocked and going fast. Other in-demand stuff like TP, Sanitizer, Soap, etc were all out. No Eggs, but lots of Milk. Fruits and Veggies were all good. I was able to get Ground Beef and Hot Dogs which were OOS last week.

Unfortunately, I live in Weston. They must have some exclusive contract with Publix. There's no other grocery options. The only other grocery stores are about 15 minutes away.

Last edited by TheBigDave; 03-20-20 at 09:12 AM.
Old 03-20-20, 09:21 AM
  #138  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

I know folks wanted to try and keep Politics out of the main COVID thread which is why we now have threads that branched out from the main COVID one but I say screw it...merge all the COVID threads (minus the meme one) into a mega thread so all things COVID are under one roof so to speak. Most of us are adults and will not clutch our pearls if someone injects politics into their comment about the Virus. It is becoming a pain to jump from one COVID thread to another to learn what people are saying (how they are feeling, if they are providing advice, good, bad, or otherwise...again, we are adults and can just ignore/roll our eyes at posts that say doofy stuff that is patently wrong and just move on to the next post(s) in the thread).

This is going to be a subject/thread people comment on for a couple months at least so it is just easier and makes for a QOL enhancement if we are not chasing/searching for which COVID threads we have not checked out on a daily basis.

Just saying, feel free to ignore my plea to merge things into one big whole. The one catch all President Trump thread seems to work out fine, and I just feel we would be better served without having 2-4 threads active on the same subject. I like to think it would make it easier on the MODs too if y'al are policing one thread vs 2-3+ threads on essentially the same subject.
Old 03-20-20, 09:25 AM
  #139  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Has it been stated what temp range the virus lives in? I would think they would have tested that by now in lab. For example: if 32 degrees kills it, wouldn't surfaces outside exposed to below 32 for a period of time be safe? Gas pump handles outside all night at 25 degrees. Leave a delivered package outside in freezing temp for awhile before bringing in, etc.
Old 03-20-20, 09:37 AM
  #140  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Tax filing deadline for US Federal Taxes moved to July 15.
Old 03-20-20, 09:51 AM
  #141  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by stingermck View Post
We just started house hunting about 2 weeks ago before everything went nuts. We hit the breaks on all that, but on my apps I still see people are still buying and selling houses. Crazy.
My boss is in the middle of building a house and reached the point where he put his on the market last week. Oof.

Originally Posted by VinVega View Post
We don't know the infection numbers because up to 50% of people show no symptoms and there aren't enough tests, so those 50% aren't getting tested. The data we have is crap.
Right but if everyone would self quarantine and quit going about their business the numbers wouldn't matter, would they? The virus would peter out.

Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
Tax filing deadline for US Federal Taxes moved to July 15.
Yeah, I still need to do mine. Guess there's no rush now. I wonder when refund checks/deposits will happen, if at all.
Old 03-20-20, 09:56 AM
  #142  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
Tax filing deadline for US Federal Taxes moved to July 15.
Iím glad I did mine right away. Got my refund weeks ago.
Old 03-20-20, 10:01 AM
  #143  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Inhumans99 View Post
merge all the COVID threads (minus the meme one) into a mega thread so all things COVID are under one roof so to speak.
Hard disagree.
There are so many aspects to all of this that having a single thread is useless because it would balloon too fast and it would be difficult to find the info you're actually interested in.
I think "one and only" threads have their place, but can be sometimes be counterproductive to facilitating some kind of meaningful conversation about minor topics within the major topic.
Hell, maybe COVID-19 needs its own subforum! (no)
Old 03-20-20, 10:11 AM
  #144  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by D.Pham4GLTE (>60GB) View Post
I completely agree with your assessment. We tested 472 people total as of February 29th. That compared to South Korea testing 10,000 people per day. Not to mention South Korea has a population of 50m, USA 320m.

With regards to the travel ban to China, unfortunately that did not include USC and LPR. I told my wife this when the order came out. This wasn't going to work. The USC and LPR coming back to the USA should at a minimum be tested.
Because we had limited real infection data we relied heavily on simulation. Those predictions turned out to be very accurate, but they were easier to dismiss than if we had measurements showing what % of people have the virus when, and compare that to data from China or Korea then shape our response accordingly. What is USC and LPR?
Old 03-20-20, 11:00 AM
  #145  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Until we know if children are spreading it without showing symptoms, schools should be closed.They have the worst hygiene. They will contaminate everything. Not worth the risk right now.
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Old 03-20-20, 11:08 AM
  #146  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

There have been very few reports of children contracting Covid-19. It’s not clear why. It’s possible that children do get infected, but so mildly that it is not noticed or tested.

If children don’t experience severe illness from or contribute to the spread of Covid-19 — and so far we have found no clear evidence that they do — it’s likely that school closings will have little effect on its spread.
So she admits she doesn't know whether children get covid-19 because they usually don't show symptoms, and she admits that there's no evidence either way that they spread the virus, we should leave schools open? Yeah that's ok for an opinion piece. I'm surprised they can't do any testing on this but maybe using children in a study is off base? You'd think one way or another we'd know by now. But I'm fine with taking drastic measures until we know.

This part is laughable:

If schools remain open, officials could enact measures to limit any potential spread among children and staff. All students could be checked daily for fever, a possible sign of Covid-19 infection. Even more attention should be given to hand washing and reminding children not to touch their faces. Children should be taught to sneeze into their sleeves. Schools can consider changing seating arrangements to keep children six feet apart. As the weather warms, lessons can be taken outside, if possible.
One, that's spoken like someone that doesn't have kids or has never dealt with a class full of kids. Two, if they are infectious and you check for fever and then send the kid home, it's too late, isn't it?
Old 03-20-20, 11:12 AM
  #147  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Schools need to be closed. Period. They can have the virus and not have noticeable symptoms, then infect their household which normally has at least one elderly person commonly around the home. The numbers in Italy are so bad is because about 90% of the deaths...are elderly; like over 65 and who smoke and have COPD or similar issues.

The West Coast should be Stay At Home. All of it. Not just California. The West Coast is a festering hotbed which will move East at a high rate if not contained. California's gov get's it and was probably told by the CDC as we're finding out things.
Old 03-20-20, 11:17 AM
  #148  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

I'm already seeing car manufacturers offer crazy deals for financing. 0% (awesome) for 84 months (icky) but no payments for 6 months (nice). GMC is offering it and I think Ford is offering it, too. If you had the cash and job stability, it might be a great time to buy. I was considering an EOY vehicle purchase but I might move that timeline up to this summer provided my wife gets some job stability clarity. I have excellent job stability, so I'm not worried.
Old 03-20-20, 11:33 AM
  #149  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Decker View Post
My two hospitals - 1 positive case at one, three at the other. Several presumptive cases in the ICU at both. I did my first COVID-19 test in my office on the 17th, got result on the 19th. Negative. Did two on the 18th, two yesterday. Waiting to hear back. Nobody terribly sick yet, I am doing on sick kids with fever who test negative in my office for Flu and RSV. I send the test out to the local labs.
As of now I have 8 COVID tests for the main lab used by most insurances, 4 tests for the lab used by BCBS and a few other providers and none for the lab used by Culinary (the biggest union in NV). That might last me a few days, but not more than that. I'm told the labs are totally out and can't get me more at present.
We are a long ways away from "Everyone who wants a test can get a test" availability. I hope my patients are understanding.
Will have to check my local ERs and see if they have all the tests they need.
Old 03-20-20, 11:35 AM
  #150  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Singapore is a tiny little island nation. Comparing it to the US is crazy.
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