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COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Old 04-09-20, 11:35 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by maxfisher View Post
I apologize if you already stated, but what would you propose? I feel like large portions of the economy are fucked for the foreseeable future, regardless of whether it’s from government action or a natural byproduct of huge numbers of people opting out of participating in the economy in a pre-Covid-19 fashion. The former seems more likely to at least tamp down deaths and give the perception/confidence that we have some level of control over conditions.

I’m not saying we keep the current status quo indefinitely, but I honestly don’t know what solutions can work in this country. No more mass events seems like a no brainer. Testing and aggressive, short-term localized isolation orders seem like they’d be helpful to potentially reduce or eliminate the need for broader lockdowns. Beyond that, I’m at a loss. Best case scenario, we’re going to continue to have small flare ups for a while. Those are going to spook a lot of people into avoiding going out and/or spending money more than they absolutely have to. Travel, tourism, concerts/sporting events/conventions, restaurants, etc are screwed and those are really the areas that seem to be most impacted by the current orders.

I likely agree with much of your thoughts, but will briefly summarise. We need to base our decisions on the data available. When the curve significantly flattens, we can begin open the economy. Continue to monitor and isolate where necessary. Implement increased safety protocols and social distancing measures throughout the chain. Regrettably accept the loss of some sectors until a vaccine is created. Manage the flare-ups and continue on.

Travel is the main sticking point. The virus dies when no one else is infected, but how to ensure those isolated pockets don't spread? I don't have that answer. I also think June is a realistic time frame to begin the opening, data dependent.
Old 04-09-20, 11:53 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

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Old 04-09-20, 12:03 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Pharoh;[url=tel:13720812
13720812[/url]]I likely agree with much of your thoughts, but will briefly summarise. We need to base our decisions on the data available. When the curve significantly flattens, we can begin open the economy. Continue to monitor and isolate where necessary. Implement increased safety protocols and social distancing measures throughout the chain. Regrettably accept the loss of some sectors until a vaccine is created. Manage the flare-ups and continue on.

Travel is the main sticking point. The virus dies when no one else is infected, but how to ensure those isolated pockets don't spread? I don't have that answer. I also think June is a realistic time frame to begin the opening, data dependent.
Yep, I think we’re mostly on the same page. I would feel a lot better if we had a competent administration that cared at least about the appearance of propriety. A strongly coordinated, federally developed plan with buy-in from most or all of the states could go a long way towards mitigating both health and economic risk as we open back up, but I think we pretty much have to accept that’s not going to happen. As bad as Trump’s been so far, I suspect his actions (or inactions) in the back half of the year will be what do the most substantial harm.
Old 04-09-20, 12:13 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

CNN ticker said that nearly a third of people that pay rent didn't make their rent payment for this month. I paid mine.
Old 04-09-20, 12:13 PM
  #1255  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Consider two cases: New York where the outbreak became exponential, and California which flattened the curve early so they have a much smaller hump. I understand it's simulation and some people may consider it not real, but Covid-19 is a well-modeled disease due to the huge amount of data already available. The main thing they don't have information about yet is how we will reopen states, so they assume perfect mitigation and zero death after mid-May.

But the curious thing is that NY which has a bigger hump will peak earlier (today 4/9) and be mostly out of it by 4/25. CA which controlled the outbreak better will peak later on 4/15 and take until 5/10 to be nearly out. The CA case is better because of fewer total deaths and lower stress on their health care system at peak, but the point is that no matter how well or poorly we do, this will end. I am not saying, do nothing because that kills more people, but the good news is that the outbreak will dissipate no matter what.

The next thing we must do is to prevent a second wave or "rebound," but preventing requires a different strategy and actions than trying to stop a problem when you are in the middle ot it. I am in no way a "do nothing" advocate, but we need to "do different" and I don't think that requires a draconian lock-down like we have now.








Last edited by Psi; 04-09-20 at 12:22 PM.
Old 04-09-20, 12:35 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by dvd-4-life View Post
CNN ticker said that nearly a third of people that pay rent didn't make their rent payment for this month. I paid mine.
Did CNN also mention that on a normal month, 20% of people don't make their rent payment? Sure, it's an extra 10% which is huge, but just saying 30% without context is sensationalism.
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Old 04-09-20, 12:37 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by PerryD View Post
Did CNN also mention that on a normal month, 20% of people don't make their rent payment? Sure, it's an extra 10% which is huge, but just saying 30% without context is sensationalism.
I think most everyone here pays their rent on time or they would get a quick eviction notice. Not that it would be the case now but in the past that's what would have happened.
Old 04-09-20, 12:40 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by PerryD View Post
Did CNN also mention that on a normal month, 20% of people don't make their rent payment? Sure, it's an extra 10% which is huge, but just saying 30% without context is sensationalism.
You wouldn't say a 50% increase is high?
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Old 04-09-20, 12:46 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Theory going around that Covid-19 hit California back in December/January (as it may have hit China as early as the Fall, and may have started spreading here then as well), as so many Californians had C-19 symptoms back then.

https://www.ksbw.com/article/new-stu...id-19/32073873

Though the most likely explanation is that the flu strain that went around was very much similar to C-19, but not it exactly.
Old 04-09-20, 12:49 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by The Bus View Post
You wouldn't say a 50% increase is high?
Okay, maybe me saying "huge" isn't enough for you, how about "super huge". But you agree that without knowing the baseline, it's hard to say 30% is high or low.
Old 04-09-20, 12:50 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by The Bus View Post
You wouldn't say a 50% increase is high?
It's always good to be reminded how others can misinterpret this kind of math, unknowingly.
Old 04-09-20, 02:39 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Pharoh View Post
And if only a small percentage of people have contracted the virus? We stay mostly shut down indefinitely? Sorry, that does not work in the real world.
Originally Posted by Pharoh View Post
As should be abundantly clear, we need more tests, more of both types. However, we will never have enough tests and we need to accept that and act accordingly. Secondly, Abob was positing that only those "immune" to the virus, and tested for the antibodies, should be allowed back to work. Again, what if, assuming magically that we could test everyone, only 10% of the population possessed the antibodies? The other 90% or 70% or 50% stay home until a vaccine is created? That is a workable plan?

By the way, I am confident that a vaccine will be out sooner than 18 months, given the resources and priority it is being given.

I will try not to get political here ... That isn’t what I said at all, so please don’t try to attribute that to me.

What I was saying was you cannot formulate ANY plan without good data. We don’t have good data. It is possible COVID-19 has run through a large swath of the public already — in milder and more severe forms. It is also possible it has not. Since New York is the place it is punching the hardest and we have not seen similar scenarios unfolding elsewhere, I’m inclined to think it has not. However, I, like many, am just swinging my balls around in the wind because we have NO GOOD DATA.

With NO GOOD DATA, the current models are just a step above useless. Magic predictions of “open by Easter” or “over by May 15th” are no better than throwing a dart at a calendar or playing cow-chip bingo.

Throwing your hands up in the air and saying “screw it, gotta’ open her up!” is reckless, ignorant, and selfish. Having GOOD DATA and saying “We are ready for the calculated risks and are equipped to handle it” is something completely different.
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Old 04-09-20, 02:49 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Pharoh View Post
And if only a small percentage of people have contracted the virus? We stay mostly shut down indefinitely? Sorry, that does not work in the real world.
Well, that seemingly isn’t how you want the world to work. “Screw the masses for the dollars” is not a world I care to see. But then, that is what drives our political and economic systems in this country.

When we have a government and a society that is able to show that we are prepared, that we have a thoughtful and conscientious plan, that we are capable, willing, and able to the right thing for fellow human beings ... then I am OK with calculated risk. Stealing the villagers’ boats and life preservers and then blowing up the dam, yelling “get out of the way” as the villagers below are washed away just so you can get your widgets moved down the river is not acceptable.

(And y’all think I’m the libertarian. )

Last edited by Abob Teff; 04-09-20 at 02:59 PM.
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Old 04-09-20, 02:50 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Some real assholes out there.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/tech/...ing/index.html

New York (CNN Business)In late March, Instacart worker Annaliisa Arambula accepted a grocery order that came with a big tip: $55. The store was just down the street, everything the customer wanted was available, and the order seemed to go off without a hitch.

But an hour later, Arambula checked her earnings on the Instacart appand the entire tip was gone, with a message saying the "customer modified the tip post-delivery." She ended up makingjust $8.95 from Instacart on the order.
"I was flabbergasted. I couldn't believe it," Arambula told CNN Business.
Demand for grocery delivery is surging amid the Covid-19 pandemic, and many customers are struggling to get the items they want or even a time slot for a delivery. Some people are dealing with that by offering big tips, as high as $50 or more, to entice Instacart workers to pick up their orders. But some of those people have turned the tactic into a bait-and-switch, offering up the big tip and then taking it away as soon as the person who risked their health to get them their groceries has made the delivery.Before accepting a "batch" -- which can consist of one or a few orders from different customers -- workers can see the items requested, the store location, the payment Instacart provides workers for the job, and the tip being offered. Instacart allows customers to change a tip for up to three days. Some workers told CNN Business tips can make up half of their income or more.

"It's very demoralizing," said Arambula, who lives in the Portland, Oregon, area and has worked full-time for Instacart since June 2017. "I don't pretend to be a hero, like a nurse in a hospital ... but I literally am exposing myself [to coronavirus] and when I return home, exposing my own family to the possibility of transmitting this disease. When you know that it's somebody who's just doing it to game the system and to get their order when they want it, it's really frustrating." Arambula's husband is currently unemployed and at high risk for Covid-19 because he has diabetes, so they are relying on her work for Instacart to pay their bills.


Old 04-09-20, 02:59 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

That’s disgusting. We’ve been tipping pretty much $10 minimum for doordash and $25 - $50 for grocery orders. Aside from it being the decent thing to do, these people are putting themselves in harm’s way to minimize the risk to everyone else. If we don’t make those jobs pay a premium over unemployment, why would anyone do them?
Old 04-09-20, 03:03 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Major flaw in the app too.
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Old 04-09-20, 03:19 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Yeah definitely. just fix the app.

ive been using Vons delivery and they don’t allow tipping.
Old 04-09-20, 03:20 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

I actually left an extra $20 cash tip outside for my first Instacart order on top of what was in the app. The second one I just gave them even more than what was on the order after they did a good job.
Old 04-09-20, 03:24 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Someone said on CNN that home deaths in NY are 10 times higher than normal, so you'd figure that even if people stay home more, at least part of these are COVID-19 related. So the number of deaths from COVID-19 is probably higher than reported.
Old 04-09-20, 04:23 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Anyone having trouble getting groceries in the house during the health crisis?

I just ordered a bunch of frozen stuff from Staples(had no idea that had frozen food) and it will arrive sometime next week(with a cool pack).

It cost a little more but I have given up on grocery delivery for now and will nickle and dime it for now.
Old 04-09-20, 04:25 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Check with you Car Insurance Company.. (Sorry if it's been posted already)

Auto insurers are offering discounts amid the pandemic. What you need to know

With most Americans under stay-at-home orders due to the coronavirus outbreak, the roads are quieter – and safer – than usual. So why should you keep paying your regular auto insurance premium?

Many insurers have a perhaps surprising answer to that question: You shouldn’t.

Allstate announced this week that it would slash April and May’s premiums for its customers by 15%.

“They can have it on their credit card or they can put it in their checking account,” Allstate CEO Thomas Wilson told CNBC on Tuesday. Meanwhile, American Family Insurance said it will return $50 to its customers, per vehicle.
Old 04-09-20, 04:51 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Metro and IGA grocery stores have put out a list of locations where an employee has tested positive for COVID-19. The grocery store I go to had 1 case (march 31st).

- People who suck at stats: Woah! I won't go there anymore!

- People who don't: 0 or 1, not statistically significant, woooo fewer people at my store!
Old 04-09-20, 04:55 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

"As the lockdown to stop the spread of coronavirus in India continues, pollution levels across much of the country have dropped sharply. Now some residents in northern India say they can see the snow-capped Himalayas 200 kilometres away for the first time in 30 years."



Old 04-09-20, 04:58 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Mabuse View Post
Yeah definitely. just fix the app.
...by allowing delivery personnel to flag addresses for this shit.

"We're sorry, due to negative feedback on your prior transactions we are unable to accept your order at this time."
Old 04-09-20, 05:09 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Giantrobo View Post
Check with you Car Insurance Company.. (Sorry if it's been posted already)

Auto insurers are offering discounts amid the pandemic. What you need to know
https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...-car-insurance

I can always tell when companies aren’t comfortable explaining themselves. They duck my questions and tell me to speak with an industry group instead.

That’s what Progressive said when I asked if they planned to cut rates amid the pandemic, instructing me to take my query to the American Property Casualty Insurance Assn.

That’s also what AAA said, steering me to the Insurance Information Institute. Others, including Geico, State Farm and Farmers, had nothing to say by the time this column was put to bed.

“Regulators and insurers are working to strike the right balance on expanding temporary arrangements to provide immediate relief for policyholders impacted by COVID,” said David A. Sampson, CEO of the American Property Casualty Insurance Assn.

He added that “now is not the time for arbitrary and artificial calls for national rate decisions.”
So that's a big NOPE (for now) from AAA and Progressive.


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