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COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Old 07-31-20, 05:22 PM
  #4626  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Mabuse View Post
Choices. Yeah, dumb fucking choices that only a fool would make.
https://forum.dvdtalk.com/other-talk...d-sucks-7.html
Old 07-31-20, 05:26 PM
  #4627  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Mabuse View Post
Sorry. Some guy named DVDPolizie says kids can’t get it or spread it. Cram that report up your ass.
Not surprised you wouldn't know the difference between a camp (highly unregulated) and an actual school setting.

Second, you're going against data compiled from all over the world with regards to schools.

Important note from that rather convenient incident:

"Finally, it was not possible to assess the individual adherence to COVID-19 prevention measures at Camp A, including physical distancing between, and within, cabin cohorts, and use of cloth masks, which were not required for campers."
Oh yeah, one hell of an example, right there.

In fact, looking at Georgia's rules for camping, this camp might have violated the rules.

https://georgia.gov/covid-19-coronav...-and-childcare

Last edited by DVD Polizei; 07-31-20 at 05:34 PM.
Old 07-31-20, 05:33 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
Not surprised you wouldn't know the difference between a camp (highly unregulated) and an actual school setting.

Second, you're going against data compiled from all over the world with regards to schools.

Important note from that rather convenient incident:



Oh yeah, one hell of an example, right there.
I'm sure you read the whole thing so this is just review, but despite your quote, it was not an unregulated camp. Also, the assertion was that these low risk kids aren't going to transmit the virus, which this study kind of blows out of the water, unless you are suddenly convinced that masks stop the virus cold (I can't remember, were you a proponent of mandating masks in school or did you say that would cause psychological damage to the kids?)

Camp A adhered to the measures in Georgia’s Executive Order* that allowed overnight camps to operate beginning on May 31, including requiring all trainees, staff members, and campers to provide documentation of a negative viral SARS-CoV-2 test ≤12 days before arriving. Camp A adopted most† components of CDC’s Suggestions for Youth and Summer Camps§ to minimize the risk for SARS-CoV-2 introduction and transmission. Measures not implemented were cloth masks for campers and opening windows and doors for increased ventilation in buildings. Cloth masks were required for staff members. Camp attendees were cohorted by cabin and engaged in a variety of indoor and outdoor activities, including daily vigorous singing and cheering. On June 23, a teenage staff member left camp A after developing chills the previous evening. The staff member was tested and reported a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2 the following day (June 24). Camp A officials began sending campers home on June 24 and closed the camp on June 27. On June 25, the Georgia Department of Public Health (DPH) was notified and initiated an investigation. DPH recommended that all attendees be tested and self-quarantine, and isolate if they had a positive test result.
On a side note about compliance, I'm telling you, as soon as they get out of school (or off the bus) the school has no jurisdiction policing distancing measures, mask wearing, or anything else as the kids congregate.
Old 07-31-20, 05:37 PM
  #4629  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

We don't even know who contracted COVID-19 at the camp, other than the teen. The notes state this as well. Which means, this camp may not have been the problem. Which negates the study. Control the camp for a study...then you got my attention. But nobody else was tested before they came to the camp...correct?

So, if you're going to do a study where one is infected, and how many could get infected in 48hrs, which by this study, it makes you think a plethora immaculately got this from one single person.

Also, we need to know the underlying conditions of all the participants. For all we know, almost all of them had compromised immune systems (due to the type of groups and families).

In other words, we need more information here, not just a group of people tested positive at a camp (48hrs later or less I assume) when one teen was tested positive and now disproves every known fact about schools and kids in the world.
Old 07-31-20, 05:39 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
We don't even know who contracted COVID-19 at the camp, other than the teen. The notes state this as well. Which means, this camp may not have been the problem. Which negates the study. Control the camp for a study...then you got my attention. But nobody else was tested before they came to the camp...correct?

So, if you're going to do a study where one is infected, and how many could get infected in 48hrs, which by this study, it makes you think a plethora immaculately got this from one single person.
including requiring all trainees, staff members, and campers to provide documentation of a negative viral SARS-CoV-2 test ≤12 days before arriving.
The question is, is it possible, just possible, that kids might transmit the virus to other kids and adults? No, no way, throw out this study and send 'em all back to school?

Also to my knowledge no school district is requiring students be tested before coming to school. But maybe I just haven't heard of it.
Old 07-31-20, 05:47 PM
  #4631  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

I predicted he’d say throw it out. Hey guys, he’s just suggesting choices.


Here, I’m gonna try and be DVDP:

When you approach a stop sign there are many choices you can make. Most people say you can stop. That’s a choice. But there are other choices. You could get out and pour sugar in your gas tank. That’s a choice you could make. You could could get out and eat a picnic on the hod of your car. That’s also a choice. You could stuff your penis into your grandmother’s ear. That’d be a choice one could consider. I’m just pointing out options everybody.
Old 07-31-20, 05:55 PM
  #4632  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by fujishig View Post
The question is, is it possible, just possible, that kids might transmit the virus to other kids and adults? No, no way, throw out this study and send 'em all back to school?

Also to my knowledge no school district is requiring students be tested before coming to school. But maybe I just haven't heard of it.
I'm curious as to why this study just happens to come out as schools are about to open or the debate is heating up significantly when it pertains exclusively to kids under 18.

Previous studies do not reflect these numbers, and we've had several months of that data...am I correct (?), which is why it's so odd that so many would be infected. Because if we translate to the nation, the numbers are out of this world, and not reflective of how many children have contracted the virus.

Is it possible the virus was spread by another means at the camps? Yes. I think we need to know a lot more about this incident. Was it in food, was it ingested orally instead of via resp, etc.
Old 07-31-20, 05:56 PM
  #4633  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
I'm curious as to why this study just happens to come out as schools are about to open or the debate is heating up significantly when it pertains exclusively to kids under 18.
Because Summer Camp happens..... during the Summer?
Old 07-31-20, 05:57 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
I'm curious as to why this study just happens to come out as schools are about to open or the debate is heating up significantly when it pertains exclusively to kids under 18.

Previous studies do not reflect these numbers, and we've had several months of that data...am I correct (?), which is why it's so odd that so many would be infected. Because if we translate to the nation, the numbers are out of this world, and not reflective of how many children have contracted the virus.

Is it possible the virus was spread by another means at the camps? Yes. I think we need to know a lot more about this incident. Was it in food, was it ingested orally instead of via resp, etc.
We have months of data on what? Schools that reopened in places where the virus is under control? What data are you talking about?

Also, the cdc study links to other studies in the appendix.

Let me put it this way: the only premise that we can use to say schools can universally reopen now is the hypothesis that kids can't infect other kids or adults. Usually the reasoning behind this is that other nations opened up schools and they didn't all die. The vast majority of these nations had COVID under control when they reopened, the main exception being Sweden, who as I stated before didn't think it necessary to closely study cases of people going back to school and where a researcher who published a paper about the lack of cases in school was apparently unaware of the outbreaks in several schools in the nation that actually resulted in teacher deaths.

Even if you want to say maybe some of these camp kids got it before or after, what the heck is going to happen at schools? Are kids not going to go home and other places and risk infection out of school and unknowingly bring it to their classmates? Again, the only case for not reopening schools is if they are not infectious or there is very little possibility that they will infect anyone.

Kids can infect each other and adults. Is someone going to deny that? At the very least high school kids can infect each other and adults. Going to deny that? I'd like to see proof.

Last edited by fujishig; 07-31-20 at 06:07 PM.
Old 07-31-20, 06:12 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei View Post
I'm curious as to why this study just happens to come out as schools are about to open or the debate is heating up significantly when it pertains exclusively to kids under 18.

Previous studies do not reflect these numbers, and we've had several months of that data...am I correct (?), which is why it's so odd that so many would be infected. Because if we translate to the nation, the numbers are out of this world, and not reflective of how many children have contracted the virus.

Is it possible the virus was spread by another means at the camps? Yes. I think we need to know a lot more about this incident. Was it in food, was it ingested orally instead of via resp, etc.
Curious why it comes out now? Because it’s fucking summer camp! Were you expecting summer camp data in May? Or December?
Old 07-31-20, 07:32 PM
  #4636  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Not really sure what you don't find convincing.

"the reason a small amount of virus often leads to a less severe illness is because when the virus starts to replicate it is a race between it and your immune system- if your immune system can produce enough antibodies first you win, if you get a larger dose the virus has a leg up and it can win."
What I found not convincing in the Washington Post article you linked to was that it was an interview of somebody who based their argument mainly on the 1918 flu pandemic. I was looking for a real study of Covid-19.

Decker already discussed this question above and that's how I also see things. I'll throw in some numbers to illustrate. Let's say I encounter a virus carrier. If I am in close contact for a long time and wear no mask, 1000 viruses could be transmitted from him to me. If I had a mask, it could block 900 and only 100 get to me. It's easier for me to fight back 100 than 1000 viruses so a mask definitely helps. But if my immune system is weak and I lose (whether to 100 or 1000 viruses), itt's not those first 100-1000 viruses that make me sick or might kill me. It's that they take over and replicate to the billion or more viruses. That's the real damage, The paper I posted earlier shows that there is no dependence of symptoms on the viral load in a person.
Old 07-31-20, 08:39 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Certainly that report puts the nail in the coffin for most on site school imo.(rather it should) It's still amazing that it's the first of it's kind to have happened (and reported) worldwide this whole time...why did the CDC just days ago recommend children go to school?

Hopefully it's just one school year, the class divide will continue to widen, kids and parents will suffer, but that's just going to be the price of admission.
Old 07-31-20, 08:54 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Artman View Post
Certainly that report puts the nail in the coffin for most on site school imo.(rather it should) It's still amazing that it's the first of it's kind to have happened (and reported) worldwide this whole time...why did the CDC just days ago recommend children go to school?
Because they faced political pressure to do so.

Hopefully it's just one school year, the class divide will continue to widen, kids and parents will suffer, but that's just going to be the price of admission.
Yep - it’s almost like this virus is a big deal we should have taken more seriously from the beginning.
Old 07-31-20, 10:29 PM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Did anyone at the camp tell the virus how old these kids are? I'm sure it wouldn't have infected them if it had only known.

Last edited by clckworang; 07-31-20 at 10:36 PM.
Old 08-01-20, 12:05 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Artman View Post
..why did the CDC just days ago recommend children go to school?
Originally Posted by Draven View Post
Because they faced political pressure to do so.


The New England Journal of Medicine published this on Wednesday saying that a greater harm is being done by keeping children out of schools than by opening them up.

Reopening Primary Schools during the Pandemic

For the past 6 months, policymakers and the U.S. public have weighed economic against public health considerations in debating what limits to set on individual and collective behaviors in attempting to control the Covid-19 pandemic. As fall approaches, attention has turned to a third pillar of a pandemic-resilient society: schools.1 Under ordinary circumstances, about 40 million children would be entering prekindergarten through 8th-grade classrooms this year, including nearly 27 million students in grades pre-K through 5.2,3 Until these children physically return to school full time, many will lose out on essential educational, social, and developmental benefits; neither the economy nor the health care system will be able to return to full strength given parents’ caretaking responsibilities4; and profound racial and socioeconomic injustices will be further exacerbated.5 We believe that safely reopening schools full-time for all elementary school children should therefore be a top national priority.
Spoiler:
Many parents and educators are reasonably concerned, however, about whether any large-scale reopening plan can ensure safety for students, school staff, and household members, given high levels of community transmission in many U.S. regions.6 Contagion is a particular concern in schools that serve predominantly low-income communities of color, given that such schools are often overcrowded and understaffed and that the families whose children attend them are at especially high risk from Covid-19.7-10 It would be best — and evidence from many countries demonstrates that it’s possible — to lower community transmission rates by means of stringent control measures this summer so that schools can reopen this fall with an acceptable level of safety.11 Even under conditions of moderate transmission (<10 cases per 100,000 people),12 however, we believe that primary schools should be recognized as essential services — and school personnel as essential workers — and that school reopening plans should be developed and financed accordingly. (We also believe that fully reopening schools for middle and high school students should be a national priority, but given the more challenging transmission dynamics at older ages, we confine ourselves here to elementary schools.)

Why In-Person Schooling Matters

Children miss out on essential academic and social–emotional learning, formative relationships with peers and adults, opportunities for play, and other developmental necessities when they are kept at home. Children living in poverty, children of color, English language learners, children with diagnosed disabilities, and young children face especially severe losses.1,13

Moreover, schools provide numerous additional in-person benefits. School-provided social welfare services support the health of U.S. communities made vulnerable by systemic racism, inadequate insurance, family instability, environmental toxicity, and poorly paid jobs.1 More than 50% of all U.S. school-age children rely on their schools for free or reduced-price daily meals. Despite efforts by school districts to maintain these services even when school was conducted remotely, a majority of children have been unable to access the full nutritional benefits to which they’re entitled.5 Schools also provide physical, mental health, and therapeutic services to millions of students per year. Many of these services have proved inaccessible to children — particularly low-income children of color and children with noncitizen family members — when schools are physically closed.1 Finally, safe and consistently open schools are essential for many parents and guardians (particularly women) to be able to reenter the workforce — including the health care sector.4,14



Continued here

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Old 08-01-20, 12:12 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by mspmms View Post


The New England Journal of Medicine published this on Wednesday saying that a greater harm is being done by keeping children out of schools than by opening them up.

Continued here

Not sure why you spoilered this part (but you did include it so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt:

Contagion is a particular concern in schools that serve predominantly low-income communities of color, given that such schools are often overcrowded and understaffed and that the families whose children attend them are at especially high risk from Covid-19.7-10 It would be best — and evidence from many countries demonstrates that it’s possible — to lower community transmission rates by means of stringent control measures this summer so that schools can reopen this fall with an acceptable level of safety.11 Even under conditions of moderate transmission (<10 cases per 100,000 people),12 however, we believe that primary schools should be recognized as essential services — and school personnel as essential workers — and that school reopening plans should be developed and financed accordingly. (We also believe that fully reopening schools for middle and high school students should be a national priority, but given the more challenging transmission dynamics at older ages, we confine ourselves here to elementary schools.)
And I agree. If it's down to less than 10 cases per 100,000 people, and we worked towards that all Summer with stringent control measures, fine. Also school reopening plans should be financed accordingly, agreed. But we aren't there. In fact, the lowest of the 50 states seems to be 132 per 100,000 in Hawaii. Florida will probably open in person their schools and they are currently at 2141.

https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases

Again, pretty much everyone believes opening schools should be a national priority, and if you think otherwise show me evidence of the people who want schools shut down permanently. I don't know why that's so hard to understand.
Old 08-01-20, 08:36 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Actually there are 16 states in the "yellow" zone (daily cases < 10 per 100,000), although it will vary obviously by county within each state. Here's a list from worst to first. The third column is the change from 10 days ago

7 day moviing average


Old 08-01-20, 08:42 AM
  #4643  
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Here is how the states are currently performing, in terms of cases per 100,000 GROWTH. Again, from worst to first.

Old 08-01-20, 09:04 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by mspmms View Post


The New England Journal of Medicine published this on Wednesday saying that a greater harm is being done by keeping children out of schools than by opening them up.

Continued here

Thanks for the link. Yeah this is what I was saying a few days ago in the covid education thread, but I got blasted for it. Nice to see I'm getting backup from such a prestigious source.

With cases going down now, more states and counties will be in that YELLOW zone by the time school starts.
Old 08-01-20, 09:18 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

U.S. 7 day average of cases as of 7-31 is 65,191, down 5.7% from a peak of 69,159 set six days ago



U.S. deaths are at 1,100 per day, up 18% from last week's average of 935. Deaths should continue to climb for another week or so, as it lags about 3 weeks behind cases (23 days is what one source said), and cases started peaking about two weeks ago.


Old 08-01-20, 09:31 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Right now the U.S. average is 20 cases per 100,000 per day. So daily cases would have to drop to less than 32,000 (assuming a population of 320 million) for the country as a whole to average less than 10 cases per 100k (which is yellow zone).
Old 08-01-20, 09:38 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Thanks for the link. Yeah this is what I was saying a few days ago in the covid education thread, but I got blasted for it. Nice to see I'm getting backup from such a prestigious source.
Your welcome, however that still won't keep some from grumbling about it.

Old 08-01-20, 10:50 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Thanks for the link. Yeah this is what I was saying a few days ago in the covid education thread, but I got blasted for it. Nice to see I'm getting backup from such a prestigious source.

With cases going down now, more states and counties will be in that YELLOW zone by the time school starts.
In California schools start in 23 days. It will be 100% distance learning. Give up comrade. Save your fingers from typing. Far smarter people than you have made the correct choices.
Old 08-01-20, 11:24 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by Franchot View Post
A front page story that takes over the entire front page? No. But correct me if I'm wrong.

If the New York Times was in the business of warning people of the dangers of serious health issues, then the New York Times should give equal or greater importance to a health issue that kills more people than Covid 19.

(Just my opinion, of course, but I believe the New York Times is in the business of selling papers and is using sensationalism of the pandemic with this front page story.)
I’m curious, how do people who said things like this back in May feel now? Obesity doesn’t kill 150,000 people in 5 months. Do they remember these words? Do they regret them? Are they out there doubling down and saying “masks make you sick!”? And I don’t mean to pick on just Franchot. There are many others who made these “death comparisons” and should be eating crow right now. Are they eating? Have they learned anything?
Old 08-01-20, 11:40 AM
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Re: COVID-19 NON-POLITICAL Thread

Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Actually there are 16 states in the "yellow" zone (daily cases < 10 per 100,000), although it will vary obviously by county within each state. Here's a list from worst to first. The third column is the change from 10 days ago

7 day moviing average

This is good news. Where did you get the data from? I couldn't find it easily on the CDC site. I do worry about the ones with big jumps, though. Like what the heck happened in Hawaii, where they still are quarantining (or are supposed to be quarantining) all incoming visitors? If anything I thought they would be the ones who could open schools safely.

And again, by no measure is Florida safe to reopen, so it's baffling to me that they're one of the states who seem adamant about doing so. I mean I guess we'll get the studies we're after but man.

But yeah, if Vermont and co. want to do in class learning and there's no hotspot county or something, I'm personally fine with that.

BTW, the paper where that <10 cases per day being moderate risk came from is here:
https://globalepidemics.org/wp-conte...ng_7.19.20.pdf

>25 per day is considered red, 10-25 orange, 1-10 yellow, and <1 is green.
While this guide to risk levels uses daily new confirmed cases, it is important that this metric be triangulated with others for full confidence in its reasonableness as a guide. The most important other measures are: case trend as an estimate from the new deaths trend, new COVID hospitalizations, in each case with a seven day rolling average, and test positivity (percentages of tests that come back positive). Death and hospitalization data points will reveal where case counts are low only because testing is low; where such undercounting is apparent, jurisdictions should not rely on case incidence to assess risk but only on death and hospitalization metrics. Increases in test positivity above 10% are also an indicator of a strong likelihood of undercounting. (For a full picture of how these metrics can be used, please see “Key Metrics for Suppression Framework.”)

Last edited by fujishig; 08-01-20 at 11:51 AM.

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